Search Results (3,023)

Earthquakes, as one of the most destructive natural disasters, often cause significant casualties and severe economic losses. Accurate prediction of earthquake fatalities is of great importance for pre-disaster prevention and mitigation planning, as well as post-disaster emergency response deployment. To address the challenges of small sample sizes, high dimensionality, and strong nonlinearity in earthquake fatality prediction, this paper proposes an integrated modeling approach (PCA-IWOA-XGBoost) combining Principal Component Analysis (PCA), the Improved Whale Optimization Algorithm (IWOA), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost). The method first employs PCA to reduce the dimensionality of the influencing factor data, eliminating redundant information and improving modeling efficiency. Subsequently, the IWOA is used to intelligently optimize key hyperparameters of the XGBoost model, enhancing the prediction accuracy and stability. Using 42 major earthquake events in China from 1970 to 2025 as a case study, covering regions including the west (e.g., Tonghai in Yunnan, Wenchuan, Jiuzhaigou), central (e.g., Lushan in Sichuan, Ya’an), east (e.g., Tangshan, Yingkou), north (e.g., Baotou in Inner Mongolia, Helinger), northwest (e.g., Jiashi in Xinjiang, Wushi, Yongdeng in Gansu), and southwest (e.g., Lancang in Yunnan, Lijiang, Ludian), the empirical results showed that the PCA-IWOA-XGBoost model achieved an average test set accuracy of 97.0%, a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.996, a root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) reduced to 4.410 and 3.430, respectively, and a residual prediction deviation (RPD) of 21.090. These results significantly outperformed the baseline XGBoost, PCA-XGBoost, and IWOA-XGBoost models, providing improved technical support for earthquake disaster risk assessment and emergency response. Full article

The spatial variation of forest ecosystem services at regional scales remains poorly understood, and few studies have explicitly analyzed how ecosystem services are distributed across different forest management types. This study assessed the spatial overlap between forest management types and ecosystem service hotspots in the Southeastern United States (SEUS) and the Pacific Northwest (PNW) forests. We used the InVEST suite of tools and GIS to quantify carbon storage and water yield. Carbon storage was estimated, stratified by forest group and age class, and literature-based biomass pool values were applied. Average annual water yield and its temporal changes (2001–2020) were modeled using the annual water yield model, incorporating precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, vegetation type, and soil characteristics. Ecosystem service outputs were classified to identify hotspot zones (top 20%) and to evaluate the synergies and tradeoffs between these services. Hotspots were then overlaid with forest management maps to examine their distribution across management types. We found that only 2% of the SEUS and 11% of the PNW region were simultaneous hotspots for both services. In the SEUS, ecological and preservation forest management types showed higher efficiency in hotspot allocation, while in PNW, production forestry contributed relatively more to hotspot areas. These findings offer valuable insights for decision-makers and forest managers seeking to preserve the multiple benefits that forests provide at regional scales. Full article

Slow-release nitrogen fertilizers enhance crop production and reduce environmental pollution, but their slow nitrogen release may cause insufficient nitrogen supply in the early stages of crop growth. Mixed nitrogen fertilization (MNF), combining slow-release nitrogen fertilizer with urea, is an effective way to increase yield and income and improve nitrogen fertilizer efficiency. This study used urea alone (Urea) and slow-release nitrogen fertilizer alone (C/SRF) as controls and employed meta-analysis and a random forest model to assess MNF effects on crop yield and nitrogen partial factor productivity (PFPN), and to identify key influencing factors. Results showed that compared with urea, MNF increased crop yield by 7.42% and PFPN by 8.20%, with higher improvement rates in Northwest China, regions with an average annual temperature ≤ 20 °C, and elevations of 750–1050 m; in soils with a pH of 5.5–6.5, where 150–240 kg·ha⁻¹ nitrogen with 25–35% content and an 80–100 day release period was applied, and the blending ratio was ≥0.3; and when planting rapeseed, maize, and cotton for 1–2 years. The top three influencing factors were crop type, nitrogen rate, and soil pH. Compared with C/SRF, MNF increased crop yield by 2.44% and had a non-significant increase in PFPN, with higher improvement rates in Northwest China, regions with an average annual temperature ≤ 5 °C, average annual precipitation ≤ 400 mm, and elevations of 300–900 m; in sandy soils with pH > 7.5, where 150–270 kg·ha⁻¹ nitrogen with 25–30% content and a 40–80 day release period was applied, and the blending ratio was 0.4–0.7; and when planting potatoes and rapeseed for 3 years. The top three influencing factors were nitrogen rate, crop type, and average annual precipitation. In conclusion, MNF should comprehensively consider crops, regions, soil, and management. This study provides a scientific basis for optimizing slow-release nitrogen fertilizers and promoting the large-scale application of MNF in farmland. Full article

As the world’s largest loess deposit region, the Loess Plateau’s vegetation dynamics are crucial for its regional water–heat balance and ecosystem functioning. Leaf Area Index (LAI) serves as a key indicator bridging canopy architecture and plant physiological activities. Existing studies have made significant advancements in simulating LAI, yet accurate LAI simulation remains challenging. To address this challenge and gain deeper insights into the environmental controls of LAI, this study aims to accurately simulate LAI in the Loess Plateau using deep learning models and to elucidate the spatiotemporal influence of soil moisture and temperature on LAI dynamics. For this purpose, we used three deep learning models, namely Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and Interpretable Multivariable (IMV)-LSTM, to simulate LAI in the Loess Plateau, only using soil moisture and temperature as inputs. Results indicated that our approach outperformed traditional models and effectively captured LAI variations across different vegetation types. The attention analysis revealed that soil moisture mainly influenced LAI in the arid northwest and temperature was the predominant effect in the humid southeast. Seasonally, soil moisture was crucial in spring and summer, notably in grasslands and croplands, whereas temperature dominated in autumn and winter. Notably, forests had the longest temperature-sensitive periods. As LAI increased, soil moisture became more influential, and at peak LAI, both factors exerted varying controls on different vegetation types. These findings demonstrated the strength of deep learning for simulating vegetation–climate interactions and provided insights into hydrothermal regulation mechanisms in semiarid regions. Full article

Food security is crucial for social stability and economic development. Ensuring food security in the arid region of Northwest China presents unique challenges due to limited water and soil resources. This study addresses these challenges by integrating a comprehensive water and soil resource matching assessment with grain production forecasting. Based on data from 2000 to 2020, this research projects the food security status to 2035 using the GM(1,1) model, incorporating a comprehensive index of soil and water resource matching and regression analysis to inform production forecasts. Key assumptions include continued historical trends in population growth, urbanization, and dietary shifts towards an increased animal protein consumption. The findings revealed a consistent upward trend in grain production from 2000 to 2020, with an average annual growth rate of 3.5%. Corn and wheat emerged as the dominant grain crops. Certain provinces demonstrated comparative advantages for specific crops like rice and wheat. The most significant finding is that despite the projected growth in the total grain output by 2035 compared to 2020, the regional grain self-sufficiency rate is projected to range from 79.6% to 84.1%, falling below critical food security benchmarks set by the FAO and China. This projected shortfall carries significant implications, underscoring a serious challenge to regional food security and highlighting the region’s increasing vulnerability to external food supply fluctuations. The findings strongly signal that current trends are insufficient and necessitate urgent and proactive policy interventions. To address this, practical policy recommendations include promoting water-saving technologies, enhancing regional cooperation, and strategically utilizing the international grain trade to ensure regional food security. Full article

In recent years, large-scale linear infrastructure developments have been developed across hundreds of kilometers of permafrost regions on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. The implementation of major engineering projects, including the Qinghai–Tibet Highway, oil pipelines, communication cables, and the Qinghai–Tibet Railway, has spurred intensified research into permafrost dynamics. Climate warming has accelerated permafrost degradation, leading to a range of geological hazards, most notably widespread thermokarst landslides. This study investigates the spatiotemporal distribution patterns and influencing factors of thermokarst landslides in Qinghai Province through an integrated approach combining field surveys, remote sensing interpretation, and statistical analysis. The study utilized multi-source datasets, including Landsat-8 imagery, Google Earth, GF-1, and ZY-3 satellite data, supplemented by meteorological records and geospatial information. The remote sensing interpretation identified 1208 cryogenic hazards in Qinghai’s permafrost regions, comprising 273 coarse-grained soil landslides, 346 fine-grained soil landslides, 146 thermokarst slope failures, 440 gelifluction flows, and 3 frost mounds. Spatial analysis revealed clusters of hazards in Zhiduo, Qilian, and Qumalai counties, with the Yangtze River Basin and Qilian Mountains showing the highest hazard density. Most hazards occur in seasonally frozen ground areas (3500–3900 m and 4300–4900 m elevation ranges), predominantly on north and northwest-facing slopes with gradients of 10–20°. Notably, hazard frequency decreases with increasing permafrost stability. These findings provide critical insights for the sustainable development of cold-region infrastructure, environmental protection, and hazard mitigation strategies in alpine engineering projects. Full article

To investigate temporal deformation mechanisms of hydraulic asphalt concrete slope flow under evolving temperatures, this study developed a novel temperature-controlled slope flow intelligent test apparatus. Using this apparatus, slope flow tests were conducted at four temperature levels: 20 °C, 35 °C, 50 °C, and 70 °C. By applying nonlinear dynamics theory, the temporal evolution of slope flow deformation and its nonlinear mechanical characteristics under varying temperatures were thoroughly analyzed. Results indicate that the thermal stability of hydraulic asphalt concrete is synergistically governed by the phase-transition behavior between asphalt binder and aggregates. Temporal evolution of slope flow exhibits a distinct three-stage pattern as follows: rapid growth (0~12 h), where sharp temperature rise disrupts the primary skeleton of coarse aggregates; decelerated growth (12~24 h), where an embryonic secondary skeleton forms and progressively resists deformation; stabilization (>24 h), where reorganization of coarse aggregates is completed, establishing structural equilibrium. The thermal stability temperature influence factor (δ) shows a nonlinear concave growth trend with increasing test temperature. Dynamically, this process transitions sequentially through critical stability, nonlinear stability, period-doubling oscillatory stability, and unsteady states. Full article

This study introduces a novel methodology for assessing ice-jam flood hazards along river channels. It employs empirical equations that relate non-dimensional ice-jam stage to discharge, enabling the generation of an ensemble of longitudinal profiles of ice-jam backwater levels through Monte-Carlo simulations. These simulations produce non-exceedance probability profiles, which indicate the likelihood of various flood levels occurring due to ice jams. The flood levels associated with specific return periods were validated using historical gauge records. The empirical equations require input parameters such as channel width, slope, and thalweg elevation, which were obtained from bathymetric surveys. This approach is applied to assess ice-jam flood hazards by extrapolating data from a gauged reach at Fort Simpson to an ungauged reach at Jean Marie River along the Mackenzie River in Canada’s Northwest Territories. The analysis further suggests that climate change is likely to increase the severity of ice-jam flood hazards in both reaches by the end of the century. This methodology is applicable to other cold-region rivers in Canada and northern Europe, provided similar fluvial geomorphological and hydro-meteorological data are available, making it a valuable tool for ice-jam flood risk assessment in other ungauged areas. Full article

Enhancing farmers’ digital literacy is both an inevitable requirement for adapting to the digital age and an important measure for promoting the sustainable development of livestock and poultry manure resource utilization. This study surveyed and obtained data from 1047 farm households in Ningxia and Gansu, two provinces in China that have long implemented livestock manure resource utilization policies, from December 2023 to January 2024, and employed the binary probit model to analyze how digital literacy influences farmers’ willingness to adopt two livestock manure resource utilization modes, as well as to analyze the moderating role of three policy regulations. This paper also explores the heterogeneous results in different village forms and income groups. The results are as follows: (1) Digital literacy significantly and positively impacts farmers’ willingness to adopt both the “household collection” mode and the “livestock community” mode. For every one-unit increase in a farmer’s digital literacy, the probability of farmers’ willingness to adopt the “household collection” mode rises by 22 percentage points, and the probability of farmers’ willingness to adopt the “livestock community” mode rises by 19.8 percentage points. After endogeneity tests and robustness checks, the conclusion still holds. (2) Mechanism analysis results indicate that guiding policy and incentive policy have a positive moderation effect on the link between digital literacy and the willingness to adopt the “household collection” mode. Meanwhile, incentive policy also positively moderates the relationship between digital literacy and the willingness to adopt the “livestock community” mode. (3) Heterogeneity analysis results show that the positive effect of digital literacy on farmers’ willingness to adopt two livestock manure resource utilization modes is stronger in “tight-knit society” rural areas and in low-income households. (4) In further discussion, we find that digital literacy removes the information barriers for farmers, facilitating the conversion of willingness into behavior. The value of this study is as follows: this paper provides new insights for the promotion of livestock and poultry manure resource utilization policies in countries and regions similar to the development process of northwest China. Therefore, enhancing farmers’ digital literacy in a targeted way, strengthening the promotion of grassroots policies on livestock manure resource utilization, formulating diversified ecological compensation schemes, and establishing limited supervision and penalty rules can boost farmers’ willingness to adopt manure resource utilization models. Full article

Understanding the impacts of climate change on species’ geographic distributions is fundamental for biodiversity conservation and resource management. As a key plant group for ecological restoration and windbreak and sand fixation in arid and semi-arid ares in China’s Three Northern Regions (Northeast, North, and Northwest China), Caragana spp. exhibit distribution patterns whose regulatory mechanisms by environmental factors remain unclear, with a long-term lack of climatic explanations influencing their spatial distribution. This study integrated 2373 occurrence records of 44 Caragana species in China’s Three Northern Regions with four major environmental variable categories. Using the Biomod2 ensemble model, current and future climate scenario-based suitable habitats for Caragana spp. were predicted. This study innovatively combined quantitative analyses with Kira’s thermal indexes (warmth index, coldness index) and Wenduo Xu’s humidity index (HI) to elucidate species-specific relationships between distribution patterns and hydrothermal climatic constraints. The main results showed that (1) compared to other environmental factors, climate is the key factor affecting the distribution of Caragana spp. (2) The current distribution centroid of Caragana spp. is located in Alxa Left Banner, Inner Mongolia. In future scenarios, the majority of centroids will shift toward lower latitudes. (3) The suitable habitats for Caragana spp. will expand overall under future climate scenarios. High-stress scenarios exhibit greater spatial changes than low-stress scenarios. (4) Hydrothermal requirements varied significantly among species in China’s Three Northern Regions, and 44 Caragana species can be classified into five distinct types based on warmth index (WI) and humidity index (HI). The research findings will provide critical practical guidance for ecological initiatives such as the Three-North Shelterbelt Program and the restoration and management of degraded ecosystems in arid and semi-arid regions under global climate change. Full article

Betula. platyphylla Sukaczev (B. platyphylla) forest is an important montane forest type. Global warming has impacted its distribution. However, how it affects suitable distribution across ecoregions and corresponding biodiversity protection measures remains unclear. This study used the Maxent model to analyze the suitable distribution and driving variables of B. platyphylla forest in China and its four ecoregions. The minimum cumulative resistance (MCR) model was applied to construct corridors nationwide. Results show that B. platyphylla forest in China is currently mainly distributed in the four ecoregions; specifically, in Gansu and Shaanxi Province in Northwest China, Heilongjiang Province in Northeast China, Sichuan Province in Southwest China, and Hebei Province and Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region in North China. Precipitation and temperature are the main factors affecting suitable distribution. With global warming, the suitable areas in China including the North, Northwest China ecoregions are projected to expand, while Northeast and Southwest China ecoregions will decline. Based on the suitable areas, we considered 45 corridors in China, spanning the four ecoregions. Our results help understand dynamic changes in the distribution of B. platyphylla forest in China under global warming, providing scientific guidance for montane forests’ sustainable development. Full article

The history of the rabies virus dates back four millennia, with the virus being considered by many to be the first known transmitted between animals and humans. In Brazil, rabies virus variants associated with terrestrial wild animals, marmosets, and different bat species have been identified. In this study, bat samples from different regions of São Paulo State, in Southeast Brazil, were analyzed to identify their genetic variability and patterns. A total of 51 samples were collected over ten years (1999–2009) and submitted to the immunofluorescent technique using monoclonal antibodies for antigenic profile detection (the diagnostic routine used in Latin American countries) and genetic evolution analysis through maximum likelihood approaches. Three antigenic profiles were detected: one related to the rabies virus maintained by hematophagous bat populations (AgV3), part of the monoclonal antibody panel used, and two other profiles not included in the panel (called NC1 and NC2). These antigenic profiles were genetically distributed in five groups. Group I was related to hematophagous bats (AgV3), Groups II and III were related to insectivorous bats (NC1) and Groups IV and V were also related to insectivorous bats (NC2). The results presented herein show that genetic lineages previously restricted to the northwest region of São Paulo State are now found in other state regions, highlighting the need for a comprehensive genetic study of bat rabies covering geographic and temporal space, through expanded genomic analysis using a standard genomic fragment. Full article

Arid regions, while providing essential ecosystem services, are among the most ecologically vulnerable worldwide. Understanding and monitoring their long-term vegetation dynamics is essential for accurate environmental assessment and climate adaptation strategies. This study examined the spatiotemporal variations and driving forces of the vegetation dynamics in arid Northwestern China during 2000 to 2020, using the annual peak fractional vegetation cover (FVC) as the primary indicator. The Sen’s slope estimator with the Mann–Kendall test and the coefficient of variation were employed to assess the spatiotemporal variations in FVC, while the Pearson correlation, geographic detector model and random forest model were applied to identify the dominant driving factors for FVC. The results indicated that (1) overall vegetation cover was low (averaged peak FVC = 0.191), showing a spatial pattern of higher values in the northwest and lower values in the southeast; high FVC values were primarily observed in mountainous areas and river corridors; (2) the annual peak FVC increased significantly at a rate of 0.0508 yr⁻¹, with 33.72% of the region showing significant improvements and 5.49% degradation; (3) the spatial pattern of FVC was shaped by the distribution of land use types (59.46%), while the temporal dynamics of FVC were driven by land use changes (16.37%) and the land use intensity (37.56%); (4) both the spatial pattern and the temporal dynamics were limited by the environmental conditions. These findings highlight the critical role of anthropogenic activities in shaping the spatiotemporal variations in FVC, particularly emphasizing the distinct contributions of changes in land use types and land use intensity. This study could provide a scientific basis for sustainable land management and restoration strategies in arid regions facing global changes. Full article

The development of urban underground space is a necessary way to realize the sustainable development of the city, and it is also an essential means to solve urban environmental problems such as traffic congestion and resource shortage. Scientific suitability evaluation is the prerequisite for the rational planning and development of underground space. Previous studies have encountered problems such as an imperfect index system, a single weighting method, and loss of membership degrees in fuzzy evaluation, which have led to unreasonable evaluation results. Taking the northern coastal cities of Weifang as the research area, the evaluation index system is established, and the index weights are calculated by the improved structural CRITIC. An improved fuzzy mathematical evaluation model based on the weighted summation method is proposed to carry out the suitability evaluation of underground space development in the research area. The results show that: (1) The proposed method of combination weight and improved fuzzy mathematics evaluation takes into account the scientific weight and avoids the subjective bias, and also corrects the issue of membership degree loss in the membership matrix of comprehensive evaluation. (2) When the area of the grid unit is 0.02% of the area of the research area, the size of the evaluation unit is more reasonable. (3) The area that is very suitable for underground space development accounts for 8.69%, and the more suitable area accounts for 25.55%, mainly located in the northwest and central–southern regions of the research area. It can provide a reference for the suitability evaluation of underground space development. Full article

Soil fugitive dust (SFD) emissions pose a significant threat to both human health and the environment, highlighting the need for accurate and reliable estimation and assessment in the desert regions of northwest China. This study used climate, soil, and vegetation data from Bayingolin Prefecture (2001–2022) and applied the WEQ model to analyze temporal and spatial variations in total suspended particulate (TSP), PM₁₀, and PM_2.5 emissions and their driving factors. The region exhibited high emission factors for TSP, PM₁₀, and PM_2.5, averaging 55.46 t km⁻² a⁻¹, 27.73 t km⁻² a⁻¹, and 4.14 t km⁻² a⁻¹, respectively, with pronounced spatial heterogeneity and the highest values observed in Yuli, Qiemo, and Ruoqiang. The annual average emissions of TSP, PM₁₀, and PM_2.5 were 3.23 × 10⁷ t, 1.61 × 10⁷ t, and 2.41 × 10⁶ t, respectively. Bare land was the dominant source, contributing 72.55% of TSP emissions. Both total emissions and emission factors showed an overall upward trend, reaching their lowest point around 2012, followed by significant increases in most counties during 2012–2022. Annual precipitation, wind speed, and temperature were identified as the primary climatic drivers of soil dust emissions across all counties, and their influences exhibited pronounced spatial heterogeneity in Bazhou. In Ruoqiang, Bohu, Korla, and Qiemo, dust emissions are mainly limited by precipitation, although dry conditions and sparse vegetation can amplify the role of wind. In Heshuo, Hejing, and Yanqi, stable vegetation helps to lessen wind’s impact. In Yuli, wind speed and temperature are the main drivers, whereas in Luntai, precipitation and temperature are both important constraints. These findings highlight the need to consider emission intensity, land use, or surface condition changes, and the potential benefits of increasing vegetation cover in severely desertified areas when formulating regional dust mitigation strategies. Full article