Search Results (35)

Although intensive studies have documented the recent increase in the frequency of the Central Pacific (CP) El Niño events, the underlying mechanism remains unclear. This motivates us to investigate the change in the frequency of CP El Niño events. By analyzing the occurrence of the CP El Niño events between 1960 and 2022, we confirm a statistically significant increase in the frequency of CP El Niño events since 2000. Over the 40 years between 1960 and 1999, eight CP El Niño events appeared. In contrast, over the 23 years between 2000 and 2022, six CP El Niño events are seen. The significant period of the CP El Niño shortens from 4–5 years to 2–3 years. The increased frequency of CP El Niño events is closely related to more frequent warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific (5° S–5° N, 170° W–122° W) during the CP El Niño developing phase (June to October). A heat budget analysis of the mixed layer reveals that the SST variability in the central equatorial Pacific during the developing phase is determined by zonal temperature advection. The frequent anomalous warm zonal advection drives more frequent warm SST anomalies, and finally, the increased frequency of CP El Niño events, as observed. Full article

Understanding historical climatic extremes and variability is crucial for effective climate change adaptation, particularly for urban flood management in developing countries. This study investigates historical precipitation trends in the Kathmandu Valley, Nepal, focusing on precipitation frequency, intensity, and the influence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), using extreme precipitation indices and the precipitation concentration index (PCI). The results reveal sharply fluctuating short-term precipitation from 1980 to 2022, with the exception of an increasing trend during spring (1.17 mm/year) and a decreasing trend in November and December. Trends in extreme precipitation indices are mixed: RX7day shows an increasing trend of 0.1 mm/year, with decadal analysis (1980–2001 and 2002–2022) indicating similar upward patterns. In contrast, RX1day, RX3day, RX5day, and R95pTOT exhibit inconsistent trends, while R99pTOT demonstrates a decreasing trend over the full period (1980–2022). Although the number of days with precipitation ≥ 35 mm has declined, the increasing trend in 7-day maximum precipitation, coupled with no significant change in total annual precipitation and highly variable short-term rainfall, points to a rising risk of unexpected extreme precipitation events. Precipitation patterns in the Kathmandu Valley remain highly irregular across seasons, except during summer. ENSO exhibits a negative correlation with annual precipitation, extreme precipitation indices, and the PCI but shows a positive correlation with the annual and summer PCI as well as 1-day maximum precipitation, emphasizing its significant influence on precipitation variability. These findings highlight the urgent need for targeted climate adaptation strategies and provide valuable insights for hydrologists, meteorologists, policymakers, and urban planners to enhance climate resilience and improve flood management in the Kathmandu Valley. Full article

Seven extreme marine heatwave (MHW) events that occurred in the central–eastern tropical Pacific over the past four decades are divided into high-(MHW#1 and #2), moderate-(MHW#3–5), and low-predictive (MHW#6 and #7) categories based on the accuracy of the 30–60d forecast by the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Climate Forecast System (NUIST CFS1.1). By focusing on high- and low-predictive MHWs, we found that metrics indicative of strong and severe warming (S > 2 and S > 3, where S is MHW severity index) pose greater challenges for accurate forecasting, with the biggest disparity observed for S > 2. All events are intertwined with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), yet a robust ENSO forecast does not guarantee a good MHW forecast. Heat budget analysis within the surface mixed layer during the rapid warming periods revealed that the moderate and severe warming in MHW#1, #2, #6 are primarily caused by heat convergence due to advection (Adv), whereas MHW#7 is mainly driven by air–sea heat flux into the sea surface (Q). The NUIST CFS1.1 model better captures Adv than Q. High-predictive events exhibit a greater contribution from Adv, especially the zonal component associated with the zonal gradient of sea surface temperature anomalies, which may explain their higher sub-seasonal forecast skills. Full article

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) alters ocean–atmosphere carbon exchange, but the mechanisms by which it affects the air–sea carbon flux (FCO₂) remain unclear. Here, we used gridded FCO₂ data from 2003 to 2021 to elucidate the control processes and regional differences in the influence of the ENSO on FCO₂ in the mid–low latitude Pacific Ocean. Overall, the mid–low latitude Pacific Ocean region was a net sink for CO₂, with an average uptake rate of −0.39 molC·m⁻²·year⁻¹. Specifically, during the La Niña period in 2010–2012, the absorption rate decreased by 15.38%, while during the El Niño period in 2015–2016, it increased by 30.77%. El Niño (La Niña) suppressed (promoted) biological primary production in the North Pacific, leading to reduced (enhanced) carbon uptake. El Niño (La Niña) also inhibited (promoted) physical vertical mixing in the Equatorial Pacific, leading to reduced (enhanced) carbon emissions. In the South Pacific, however, El Niño increased carbon uptake and La Niña decreased carbon uptake; although, not by these two processes. More frequent El Niño in the future will further reduce carbon absorption in the North Pacific and carbon emission in the Equatorial Pacific but increase carbon absorption in the South Pacific. Full article

The Magdalena department, influenced by southern trade winds and ocean currents from the Atlantic and Pacific, is a climatically vulnerable region. This study assesses the Magdalena Department’s precipitation trends and stationary patterns by analyzing multi-year monthly records from 55 monitoring stations from 1990 to 2022. To achieve this, the following methods were used: (i) homogeneous regions were established by an unsupervised clustering approach, (ii) temporal trends were quantified using non-parametric tests, (iii) stationarity was identified through Morlet wavelet decomposition, and (iv) Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in four Niño regions was correlated with stationarity cycles. Silhouette’s results yielded five homogeneous regions, consistent with the National Meteorological Institute (IDEAM) proposal. The Department displayed decreasing annual trends (−32–−100 mm/decade) but exhibited increasing monthly trends (>20 mm/decade) during the wettest season. The wavelet decomposition analysis revealed quasi-bimodal stationarity, with significant semiannual cycles (~4.1 to 5.6 months) observed only in the eastern region. Other regions showed mixed behavior: non-stationary in the year’s first half and stationary in the latter half. Correlation analysis showed a significant relationship between SST in the El Niño 3 region (which accounted for 50.5% of the coefficients), indicating that strong phases of El Niño anticipated precipitation responses for up to six months. This confirms distinct rainfall patterns and precipitation trends influenced by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), highlighting the need for further hydrometeorological research in the area. Full article

Taiwan Bank (TB) is located in the southern Taiwan Strait (TS). The uplifted continental slope and bottom currents in this area result in the formation of upwelling areas, which serve as crucial fishing grounds. Climate-induced fluctuations in fish populations occur in the TS. However, how predation and competition affect the interspecies relationships in the TB ecosystem warrants clarification. In this study, we collected high-grid-resolution data on fishery activity (2013–2019) and constructed ecosystem models using Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE). Three mass-balanced models for determining the influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on the TB ecosystem were constructed using EwE. A range of groups, including representative pelagic, benthic, and reef species, were collected for analyzing the relationship between migratory and sedentary species in terms of ecosystem structure variation due to climate change. The results demonstrated that the total system throughput (TST) was 10,556–11,122 t km⁻² year⁻¹, with an average transfer efficiency of 12.26%. According to the keystoneness index, calculated through mixed trophic impact analysis, Polydactylus sextarius and Scomber japonicus were the key species with top–down control and relatively high impact on the ecosystem in normal years. The keystone species also shifted to the predator fish Thunnus albacares and Katsuwonus pelamis during El Niño and La Niña events, respectively. Moreover, total biomass, TST, consumption, and respiration were noted to increase during ENSO events. However, during La Niña events, the diversity and connectance indexes were relatively low but pelagic species’ biomass was relatively high, whereas the biomass of most benthic and reef species was relatively high during El Niño events. Full article

The heat budget of the equatorial Pacific mixed layer during El Niño formation was studied based on reanalysis (GLORYS2V4) and model data for the modern climate. The focus of the study is on the so-called El Niño diversity, i.e., the existence of different types of events that are characterized by different locations and intensities, as well as significantly different teleconnection all around the world. The analysis of the processes that participate in the formation of different El Niño types may serve for a better understanding of the El Niño dynamic and contribute to improving its forecast. Two classifications, based on the location and intensity of the events, were considered: strong/moderate and Eastern Pacific (EP)/Central Pacific (CP). The analysis did not reveal a significant difference in the heat budget of the mixed layer between strong and EP El Niño events, as well as between moderate and CP events. The major difference in the generation mechanism of strong (EP) and moderate (CP) El Niño events consists of the magnitude of heating produced by ocean heat budget components with higher heating rates for strong (EP) events. The evolution of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) is governed primarily by oceanic advection. The vertical advection (due to the thermocline feedback) is the main contributor to SSTA growth in the eastern Pacific regardless of El Niño’s type. In the Central Pacific, horizontal advection is more important than vertical one, with a stronger impact of meridional processes for both strong and moderate regimes. Furthermore, the evaluation of the CMIP5 model’s skill in the simulation of the processes responsible for the formation of different El Niño types was carried out. The analysis of the heat budget of the mixed layer in the CMIP5 ensemble demonstrated that the most successful models are CCSM4, CESM1-BGC, CMCC-CMS, CNRM-CM5, GFDL-ESM2M, and IPSL-CM5B-LR. They are capable of reproducing the most important contribution of the advection terms in the SSTA tendency, keeping the major role of the thermocline feedback (and vertical advection) in the eastern Pacific, and do not overestimate the contribution of zonal advective feedback. These models are recommended to be used for the analysis of El Niño mechanism modification in the future climate. Full article

By decomposing observed El Niño and La Niña events into a strong group and a weak group, respectively, we discovered that the strong La Niña group has its peak center more towards the west compared to the weak La Niña group, whereas the strong El Niño group has its peak center more towards the east compared to the weak El Niño group. The cause of this structure asymmetry is investigated through an ocean mixed-layer heat budget analysis. It was found that the asymmetry is closely linked to the longitudinal distribution of SST anomaly (SSTA) skewness along the equator, and is fundamentally caused by nonlinear dynamic heating, especially nonlinear horizontal temperature advection. It was demonstrated that near the equatorial central Pacific, the anomalous zonal and meridional currents generate negative nonlinear zonal and meridional temperature advection anomalies for both the El Niño and La Niña events, thus favoring a stronger La Niña and a weaker El Niño. Over the eastern Pacific, due to the dominant geostrophic zonal current anomalies and the southward shift of SSTA centers, nonlinear horizontal temperature advection anomalies tend to be positive for both the El Niño and La Niña, thus favoring a stronger growth of El Niño than La Niña. Nonlinear vertical temperature advection anomalies play minor roles in the central Pacific and tend to partially offset the nonlinear horizontal advection effect in the equatorial eastern Pacific. Full article

Global climate change and human activities have increased the frequency and severity of droughts. This has become a critical factor affecting vegetation growth and diversity, resulting in detrimental effects on agricultural production, ecosystem stability, and socioeconomic development. Therefore, assessing the response of vegetation dynamics to drought can offer valuable insights into the physiological mechanisms of terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we applied long-term datasets (2001–2020) of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) to unveil vegetation dynamics and their relationship to meteorological drought (SPEI) across different vegetation types in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB). Linear correlation analysis was conducted to determine the maximum association of SPEI with SIF and NDVI; we then compared their responses to meteorological drought. The improved partial wavelet coherence (PWC) method was utilized to quantitatively assess the influences of large-scale climate patterns and solar activity on the relationship between vegetation and meteorological drought. The results show that: (1) Droughts were frequent in the YRB from 2001 to 2020, and the summer’s dry and wet conditions exerted a notable influence on the annual climate. (2) SPEI exhibits a more significant correlation with SIF than with NDVI. (3) NDVI has a longer response time (3–6 months) to meteorological drought than SIF (1–4 months). Both SIF and NDVI respond faster in cropland and grassland but slower in evergreen broadleaf and mixed forests. (4) There exists a significant positive correlation between vegetation and meteorological drought during the 4–16 months period. The teleconnection factors of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and sunspots are crucial drivers that affect the interaction between meteorological drought and vegetation, with sunspots having the most significant impact. Generally, our study indicates that drought is an essential environmental stressor that disrupts vegetation growth over the YRB. Additionally, SIF demonstrates great potential in monitoring vegetation response to drought. These findings will be meaningful for drought prevention and ecosystem conservation planning in the YRB. Full article

To better understand how fish communities respond to environmental changes under extreme climate events, we examine changes in fish communities in Beibu Gulf during strong El Niño and La Niña events. Strong La Niña and El Niño events affect the composition, abundance, and distribution of fish communities in Beibu Gulf. Fish community distribution and composition change before and after La Niña and El Niño events, and dominant species within them change with stable fishing intensity. The abundance and distribution of small pelagic fish such as Japanese jack mackerel (Trachurus japonicus) and Japanese scad (Decapterus maruadsi) are the most affected. Using a generalized additive model (GAM), we explore relationships between the abundance of T. japonicus and D. maruadsi and a suite of environmental variables. The GAM results revealed that sea surface salinity and sea surface temperature best explain changes in catch per unit effort of these two species during a La Niña event; depth, sea surface temperature, and mixed layer depth during an El Niño event. The results obtained in this study will offer support for implementing more-accurate, scientific fisheries management measures. Full article

The present study investigates the influences of stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the intensity of stratospheric isentropic mixing based on ERA-Interim and MERRA-2 reanalysis products. It is found that isentropic mixing in the stratosphere is modulated by QBO and ENSO. An analysis of the QBO basis function in the multiple regression model reveals that isentropic mixing in the lower stratosphere is suppressed in the equatorial region in the WQBO phase, while the mixing enhances in the subtropical and mid-latitude regions. This result is not consistent with the Holton–Tan mechanism. However, isentropic mixing in the mid-latitudes becomes stronger in the middle stratosphere in the EQBO phase, which agrees well with the Holton–Tan effect. Composite analysis indicates that QBO-induced changes in the direction and speed of the stratospheric zonal wind can affect wave propagation and wave breaking. In the WQBO phase, zonal wind weakens, and a planetary wave is anomalously converging near 30°N, which leads to an increase in isentropic mixing; on the contrary, wind speed becomes large, and the upward propagation of planetary wave divergence, which lead to the isentropic mixing, becomes weak near 60°N. In the EQBO phase, the wind is relatively weak around 60°N, and the isentropic mixing is strong. Multiple regression analysis reveals the ENSO impact on the intensity of isentropic mixing, which shows weak mixing in the middle and high latitudes and strong mixing in the low latitudes of the lower stratosphere in the El Niño years. In the middle stratosphere, isentropic mixing enhances in the mid-latitude region due to intensified upward propagation of planetary waves but weakens in the polar region. Composite analysis reveals a clear relationship between the mixing strength zones of the El Niño and La Niña years with the position of the polar jet and changes in zonal wind speed. Full article

Phytoplankton communities, showing significant spatiotemporal variation within bay areas, play an important role in the structure and function of nearshore marine ecosystems. However, the absence of long-term high-resolution datasets has hindered our understanding of the effect of ENSO-driven environmental changes on phytoplankton communities in coastal ecosystems. Herein, by performing biomarker inversion analyses on two centuries’ worth of sedimentary organisms in the Sanmen Bay area, we observed a marked El Niño/La Niña-related succession; specifically, that El Niño-induced warming had increased the biomass of phytoplankton by 57.89%, while also increasing the proportion of diatoms by 76.40%. In contrast, La Niña years exhibited a decrease in the biomass of phytoplankton by 54.23%. Further, over three decades of observational data from the Sanmen Bay suggest that La Niña years can promote occasional blooms through monsoonal mixing and land-based inputs. Consequently, the nearshore marine ecosystem of the bay area, being subject to intense anthropogenic activity and land–sea interactions, can be said to be influenced by global-scale ocean–atmosphere processes. Going forward, the connection between short-term extreme events and long-term changes in the nearshore marine ecosystem should receive greater attention. Full article

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most significant global ocean–atmosphere coupled signal in the tropical Pacific Ocean, and it can affect the stratosphere. However, the ENSO-related dynamical processes that influence the ozone valley during summer are still not well understood and are under-investigated. In this study, we used the ERA5 and MERRA-2 reanalysis data from 1979 to 2021 combined with numerical simulations to analyze the mechanisms through which ENSO affects the ozone valley over the Tibetan Plateau in the upper troposphere and the lower stratosphere (UTLS) in summer. The results showed that the two cores of the ozone valley in UTLS were more evident in the summer following La Niña than in the summer following El Niño. At low latitudes, negative O₃ anomalies in UTLS were observed in the summer following El Niño and positive O₃ anomalies were observed in the summer following La Niña. At middle latitudes, negative O₃ anomalies in UTLS were found near 60°E in the summer following El Niño, while negative anomalies were found at 40°E and 120°E in the summer following La Niña. The analysis of the flow and vorticity fields suggested that the field anomalies can cause vertical motion, which in turn leads to the mixing of different ozone concentrations and affects the ozone valley in UTLS over the Tibetan Plateau. In particular, the warming of the Indian Ocean sea-surface temperature (SST) in the summer following El Niño enhances the South Asian High (SAH) through two-stage thermal adaptation, leading to ozone anomalies at low latitudes in the ozone-valley region. These conclusions were verified by a simulation using the WACCM4 model, the results of which were consistent with the original observations. Full article

Precipitation is crucial for the hydrological cycle and is directly related to many ecological processes. Historically, measurements of precipitation totals were made at weather stations, but spatial and temporal coverage suffered due to the lack of a robust network of weather stations and temporal gaps in observations. Several products have been proposed to identify the location of the occurrence of precipitation and measure its intensity from different types of estimates, based on alternative data sources, that have global (or quasi-global) coverage with long historical time series. However, there are concerns about the accuracy of these estimates. The objective of this study is to evaluate the accuracy of the ERA5 product for two ecoregions of the Canadian Prairies through comparison with monthly means measured from 1981–2019 at ten weather stations (in-situ), as well as to assess the intraseasonal variability of precipitation and identify dry and wet periods based on the annual Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) derived from ERA5. A significant relationship between in-situ data and ERA5 data (with the R² varying between 0.42 and 0.76) (p < 0.01)) was observed in nine of the ten weather stations analyzed, with lower RMSE in the Mixed Ecoregion. The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) results showed greater agreement between the datasets in May (average R value of 0.84 and an average MAPE value of 32.33%), while greater divergences were observed in February (average R value of 0.57 and an average MAPE value of 50.40%). The analysis of wet and dry periods, based on the SPI derived from ERA5, and the comparison with events associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), showed that from the ERA5 data and the derivation of the SPI it is possible to identify anomalies in temporal series with consistent patterns that can be associated with historical events that have been highlighted in the literature. Therefore, our results show that ERA5 data has potential to be an alternative for estimating precipitation in regions with few in-situ stations or with gaps in the time series in the Canadian Prairies, especially at the beginning of the growing season. Full article

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) are two major interannual variations observed in the tropics, yet the joint modulation of the ENSO and QBO on the ozone valley over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) in summer has not been performed. This study investigates the combined effects of the ENSO and the QBO on the interannual variations of the ozone valley over the TP using the ERA5 reanalysis data from 1979 to 2021. The results show that the ENSO leads the zonal deviation of the total column ozone (TCO*) over the TP by about 6 months. This means the TCO* in the summer of the following year is affected by the ENSO in the current year. This is consistent with the theory of recharge oscillation. In terms of dynamic conditions, the anomalous circulation resulting from the combined effect of El Niño and the easterly phase of the QBO (EQBO) lead to strengthened and upward anomalies of the South Asian high (SAH) over the TP, followed by reduced ozone valley with more negative anomalies over the TP in summer. As to thermodynamic conditions, affected by both El Niño and the EQBO, the atmospheric stability shows positive anomalies from the lower troposphere to the upper troposphere, and the positive anomaly areas are larger than those in other conditions. These findings indicate an unstable atmosphere, where convection is more likely to cause ozone exchange. The turbulent mixing of ozone at low levels and high levels leads to the ozone valley over the TP, with more negative anomalies in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS). Full article