Search Results (25)

Ozone density at cold-point mesopause (O3-CPM) can provide information on long-term atmospheric trends. Compared to ground-level ozone, O3-CPM is not only adversely affected by chemical substances emitted from human activities but is also regulated by solar radiation. Therefore, an accurate prediction of O3-CPM is necessary. However, it is difficult for traditional forecasting methods to predict the main trends and seasonal characteristics of ozone time series while capturing the random components and noise of O3-CPM. In order to improve the prediction accuracy of O3-CPM, this paper proposes a hybrid SSA-SARIMA-GSVR model based on the Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) method, which combines the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model (SARIMA) and the Gray Wolf Algorithm Optimized Support Vector Regression Algorithm (GSVR). First, the O3-CPM sequence is decomposed using SSA, and the concept of reconstruction threshold (RT) is introduced to categorize the decomposed singular values into two classes. The categorized RT reconstructed sequences containing periodic features and major trends are fed into the SARIMA model for prediction, and the N-RT reconstructed sequences (original sequence N minus RT reconstructed sequence) containing stochastic components and nonlinear features are fed into the GSVR model for prediction. The final prediction results are obtained by superimposing the outputs of these two models. The results confirm that, compared to various commonly used time series forecasting models such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Informer, SVR, SARIMA, GSVR, SSA-GSVR, and SSA-SARIMA models, the proposed SSA-SARIMA-GSVR hybrid prediction model has the lowest error evaluation metrics, enabling accurate and efficient prediction of the O3-CPM time series. Specifically, the proposed model achieved an RMSE of 0.26, MAE of 0.212, and R² of 0.987 on the test set, outperforming the best baseline model (SARIMA) by 45.8%, 42.1%, and 3.1%, respectively. Full article

The article is focused on the quantitative assessment of the thermal impact of polar mesospheric clouds (PMCs) on the mesopause caused by the emission of absorbed solar and terrestrial infrared (IR) radiation by cloud particles. For this purpose, a parameterization of mesopause heating by PMC crystals has been developed, the main feature of which is to incorporate the thermal properties of ice and the interaction of cloud particles with the environment. Parametrization is based on PMCs zero-dimensional (0-D) model and uses temperature, pressure, and water vapor data in the 80–90 km altitude range retrieved from Solar Occultation for Ice Experiment (SOFIE) measurements. The calculations are made for 14 PMC seasons in both hemispheres with the summer solstice as the central date. The obtained results show that PMCs can make a significant contribution to the heat balance of the upper atmosphere, comparable to the heating caused, for example, by the dissipation of atmospheric gravity waves (GWs). The interhemispheric differences in heating are manifested mainly in the altitude structure: in the Southern Hemisphere (SH), the area of maximum heating values is 1–2 km higher than in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), while quantitatively they are of the same order. The most intensive heating is observed at the lower boundary of the minimum temperature layer (below 150 K) and gradually weakens with altitude. The NH heating median value is 5.86 K/day, while in the SH it is 5.24 K/day. The lowest values of heating are located above the maximum of cloud ice concentration in both hemispheres. The calculated heating rates are also examined in the context of the various factors of temperature variation in the observed atmospheric layers. It is shown in particular that the thermal impact of PMC is commensurate with the influence of dissipating gravity waves at heights of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT), which parameterizations are included in all modern numerical models of atmospheric circulation. Hence, the developed parameterization can be used in global atmospheric circulation models for further study of the peculiarities of the thermodynamic regime of the MLT. Full article

Understanding the thermodynamic horizontal structure of the mesopause is essential for studying atmospheric wave dynamics and energy transport. However, conventional models like MSISE-00 exhibit some discrepancies from lidar observations in the mesopause. To obtain a more reliable horizontal temperature structure, this study integrates coordinated lidar observations from Urumqi, Yuzhong, and Yangbajing with models using a three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) data assimilation method to construct a high-resolution temperature field over northwestern China. The assimilated temperature profiles closely match lidar observations, with the RMSE (root mean square error) of residual reductions of 67.35% at Urumqi, 60.69% at Yuzhong, and 34.80% at Yangbajing. Independent validation at Korla showed a RMSE of residual reductions of 40.14%, confirming the model’s effectiveness. The thermodynamical horizontal structures of the mesopause obtained from this model were also analyzed. The lidar-based model for the mesopause extends the observation results from disparate lidar stations to the area between lidar stations and will contribute to a deeper understanding of upper atmospheric dynamics. Full article

Polar mesospheric clouds (PMCs) are ice crystal clouds formed in the mesosphere of high-latitude regions in both the northern (NH) and southern hemispheres (SH). Peak height is an important physical characteristic of PMCs. Satellite observation data from solar occultation for ice experiments (SOFIE) during seven PMC seasons from 2007 to 2014 show that the difference between the height of the mesopause and the peak height of the PMCs (Z_mes-Z_max) were inversely correlated with the atmospheric mesopause temperature. The Z_mes-Z_max averages for all seasons for the NH and SH were 3.54 km and 2.66 km, respectively. They were smaller at the starting and ending stages of each PMC season and larger in the middle stages. Analysis of the individual cases and statistical results simulated by the PMCs 0-D model also revealed the inverse correlations between the Z_mes-Z_max and mesopause temperature, with correlation coefficients of −0.71 and −0.62 for the NH and SH, respectively. The corresponding rates of change of Z_mes-Z_max with respect to mesopause temperature were found to be −0.21 km/K and −0.14 km/K, respectively. The formation mechanism of PMCs suggests that a lower temperature around the mesopause can lead to a greater distance and longer time for ice crystals to condense and grow in clouds. Thus, ice crystals sediment to a lower height, making the peak height of the PMCs further away from the mesopause. In addition, disturbances in small-scale dynamic processes tend to weaken the impact of temperature on the peak height of PMCs. Full article

The inversion of temperature by detecting the ratio of the intensity of airglow vibrational and rotational spectral lines is a traditional method for obtaining mesopause temperature. However, previous studies have shown that there is significant uncertainty in the temperature inversion using this technology. A spectrograph instrument called the Mesosphere Airglow Fine Spectrometer (MAFS) was previously developed by our research team. Based on the MAFS, this work systematically evaluated the impact of the spectral line extraction methods and residual background noise elimination methods on temperature inversion results of the OH (6-2) Q-branch as the target. The fitting of residual background noise using different numbers of sampling points can cause the inverted temperature to vary by 5 K to 10 K without changing the overall trend. The temperature inversion results obtained using the three-region single-fit method were generally 3 K to 5 K higher than those obtained using the two-region double-fit method. Moreover, the temperature obtained using the Gaussian fitting area varied by approximately 15 K, with changes in the residual background noise fitting method; however, when using a spectrum peak instead of the Gaussian fitting area, this variation decreased to approximately 10 K. When the temperature is higher, both the residual background noise fitting and the spectral line intensity extraction methods have a more significant impact on the uncertainty of temperature inversion. Full article

Lidar observations of metal layers play a significant role in research on the chemistry and dynamics of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere. This work reports on Fe lidar observations conducted in Beijing and Mohe. Utilizing the same laser emission system, a 1064 nm seed laser was injected into an Nd: YAG laser to generate a single longitudinal-mode pulse 532 nm laser, which pumped a dye laser to produce a 572 nm laser. The 572 nm laser and the remaining 1064 nm fundamental frequency laser passed through a sum–frequency module to generate a 372 nm laser to detect the Fe layer. According to a total of 52.6 h of observations for 10 nights in Beijing, the Fe layer has an average column density of 1.24 × 10¹⁰ cm⁻², an RMS width of 4.4 km and a centroid altitude of 89.4 km. In Mohe, observed for 16 nights and a total of 91.5 h, the Fe layer has an average column density of 1.08 × 10¹⁰ cm⁻², an RMS width of 4.6 km and a centroid altitude of 89.5 km. The probability of the occurrence of sporadic Fe layers was 42.4% in Beijing and 29.4% in Mohe. Compared to simultaneously observed Na layers, the occurrence probabilities of sporadic Fe layers were higher than those of sporadic Na layers in both stations. Based on the two cases observed in Beijing, it is conjectured that the formation mechanism of sporadic metal layers above approximately 100 km has a more significant influence on sporadic Fe layers than on sporadic Na layers. The lower thermospheric Fe layers with densities significantly larger than those of the main layer were observed during two nights in Mohe. This work contributes to the refinement of the global distribution of Fe layers and provides abundant observational data for the modeling and study of the metal layers. Full article

The paper deals with long-term means of 557.7 nm atomic oxygen airglow intensity (OI) and air temperature within the mesopause over the southern regions of East Siberia. Data on temperature and emission parameters were obtained with a SABER radiometer, KEO Scientific “Arinae” Fabry–Pérot interferometer, SATI spectrometer and NRLMSIS model over the Tory Geophysical Observatory (52° N, 103° E). Annual variations of 557.7 nm emission intensity and temperature obtained in observations differ from model approximations. Potential reasons for the discrepancies revealed are discussed. Full article

The dynamic vertical coupling in the middle and lower thermosphere (MLT) is documented over the Maïdo observatory at La Réunion island (21°S, 55°E). The investigation uses data obtained in the framework of the Atmospheric dynamics Research InfraStructure in Europe (ARISE) project. In particular, Rayleigh lidar and nightglow measurements combined with other observations and modeling provide information on a mesospheric inversion layer (MIL) and the related gravity waves (GWs) on 9 and 10 October 2017. A Rossby wave breaking (RWB) produced instabilities in the sheared background wind and a strong tropospheric activity of GWs on 9–11 October above La Réunion. The MIL was observed on the night of 9 October when a large amount of tropospheric GWs propagated upward into the middle atmosphere and disappeared on 11 October when the stratospheric zonal wind filtering became a significant blocking. Among other results, dominant mesospheric GW modes with vertical wavelengths of about 4–6 km and 10–13 km can be traced down to the troposphere and up to the mesopause. Dominant GWs with a wavelength of ~2–3 km and 6 km also propagated upward and eastward from the tropospheric source into the stratosphere on 9–11 October. Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) temperature and OH profiles indicate that GW activity in the middle atmosphere affects the upper atmosphere with waves breaking at heights below the MIL and in the mesopause. Several techniques are illustrated on nightglow images to access GW activity and spectral characteristics at the mesopause for high and low frequency GWs on the nights of 9–10 October. In conclusion, intense tropospheric activity of GWs induced by RWB events can be linked with MILs at the subtropical barrier in the South-West Indian Ocean during austral winter. Full article

We studied the characteristics of quasi-two-day wave (QTDW) using the meridional wind in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) obtained from a meteor radar over Kototabang (KB, 0.2$°$S, 100.3$°$E) from 2003 to 2012. Atmospheric oscillations have a crucial impact on atmospheric dynamics, which contributes to more accurate space weather forecasting, thus providing a more secure space environment for human space exploration activities such as remote sensing and satellite navigation. QTDWs are typical atmospheric oscillations in the upper stratosphere, mesosphere and lower thermosphere. The occurrence time, amplitudes, periods and vertical wavelengths of QTDW events are analyzed statistically. Data obtained from the TIMED Doppler Interferometer (TIDI), which can measure wind and temperature and is onboard the Thermosphere, Ionosphere, Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) satellite, are used to analyze the global distribution and spatial structure of QTDWs with different zonal wavenumbers. The characteristics of the QTDWs over KB are compared with the QTDWs at the middle latitudes using the meridional wind data from a meteor radar over Wuhan (114.4$°$E, 30.6$°$N), Beijing (116.5$°$E, 39.9$°$N) and Mohe (121.1$°$E, 50.1$°$N). The amplitudes of the QTDW and spectral analysis are calculated by the least squares fitting method. Our results demonstrate that QTDWs are present almost all year around over KB. The occurrence time, amplitudes, periods and vertical wavelengths of QTDW events with different zonal wavenumbers are determined in this study. We also find that the statistical characteristics of the QTDWs in KB are different from those at middle latitudes. The westward zonal wavenumber −4 (W4) events gradually increase with increasing latitude, whereas westward zonal wavenumbers −1, −2, and −3 (W1, W2 and W3, respectively) events all decrease with increasing latitude. Full article

We performed an analysis of year-to-year variations in the characteristics of the upper neutral atmosphere and the ionosphere over Eastern Siberia. The mesopause temperature (Tm) obtained from the spectrometric observations of the OH(6-2) emission and the peak electron density (NmF2) from the ionosonde measurements were used as atmospheric and ionospheric characteristics. We considered the annual mean Tm and yearly average values of NmF2, as well as yearly average values of day-to-day and intradiurnal variability in Tm and NmF2. To interpret the year-to-year variations, we use multiple regressions of the ionospheric and atmospheric characteristics on the F10.7-index (as a proxy of solar activity) and Ap-index (as a proxy of geomagnetic activity). For the atmospheric characteristics, we also used regressions on the SOI index (as a proxy of circulation in the lower atmosphere). The yearly average values of NmF2 are dominantly controlled by changes in the solar flux. The year-to-year variations in the NmF2 variability are mainly driven by changes in both solar and geomagnetic activity. The year-to-year variations in the mesopause temperature weakly correlate with changes in the indices of solar and geomagnetic activity. The yearly average values of Tm variability correlate with changes in the SOI-index: the day-to-day variability demonstrates a positive correlation with the SOI-index, while the intradiurnal variability shows a negative correlation with the SOI-index. The study did not reveal a significant relationship between the year-to-year variations in the NmF2 variability and Tm variability. Full article

In the present work, the momentum fluxes of gravity wave (GW) around the mesopause are estimated, using the decadal continuous observations by meteor radar at Mohe (53.5°N, 122.3°E). Applying the Hocking’s (2005) approach with the modified-composite-day (MCD) analysis, the GW momentum fluxes of short-periods (less than 2 h) are estimated month by month. As the first step, several experiments are designed to evaluate the accuracy and uncertainty in the estimation. The results show that Mohe meteor radar has the ability to give reasonable estimations on the GW momentum fluxes at a height of 82–94 km, in which errors are generally less than 5 m²/s². The uncertainty induced by different angular information of the detected meteor in each month achieves ~2 m²/s². It is inferred that the variability of the GW momentum fluxes over 2 m²/s² can be distinguished in the observation. The interannual variation of the estimated GW momentum fluxes show a significant enhancement in 2012, and a depression in 2013, with a fluctuation over ±10 m²/s² at 82 km. However, no obvious quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) -like signal has been found in the Lomb–Scargle periodogram. Full article

Processes behind Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW), which occurs more frequently in the northern hemispheric polar latitudes and its influence from the stratosphere to the upper atmosphere are well documented. However, physical processes associated with SSW, although it ensues rarely in the southern hemisphere (SH), have a strong influence on the background atmosphere from the stratosphere to the mesosphere and are poorly understood. Using a ground-based meteor radar, satellite-borne Microwave-Limb sounder, and Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications observations, we identified cooling of Antarctic mesopause by 26 K in response to a 66 K warming in the polar stratosphere during the 2019 minor SSW in the SH. The observed cooling is attributed to the interplay between planetary waves, CO₂ infrared cooling, and O₃ depletion, rather than adiabatic cooling due to gravity waves alone during SSW. It is proposed that anthropogenic and other sources generating chemical tracers in the lower atmosphere have caused mesospheric cooling and could be transported from the lower atmosphere both vertically and meridionally through residual mean meridional circulation from the tropics. Therefore, our study for the first time demonstrates the effect of lower atmosphere chemistry on the polar mesosphere thermal structure during the 2019 SSW. Full article

Optically thin layers of tiny ice particles near the summer mesopause, known as noctilucent clouds, are of significant interest within the aeronomy and climate science communities. Ground-based optical cameras mounted at various locations in the arctic regions collect the dataset during favorable summer times. In this paper, first, we compare the performances of various deep learning-based image classifiers against a baseline machine learning model trained with support vector machine (SVM) algorithm to identify an effective and lightweight model for the classification of noctilucent clouds. The SVM classifier is trained with histogram of oriented gradient (HOG) features, and deep learning models such as SqueezeNet, ShuffleNet, MobileNet, and Resnet are fine-tuned based on the dataset. The dataset includes images observed from different locations in northern Europe with varied weather conditions. Second, we investigate the most informative pixels for the classification decision on test images. The pixel-level attributions calculated using the guide back-propagation algorithm are visualized as saliency maps. Our results indicate that the SqueezeNet model achieves an F1 score of 0.95. In addition, SqueezeNet is the lightest model used in our experiments, and the saliency maps obtained for a set of test images correspond better with relevant regions associated with noctilucent clouds. Full article

Unexpected observations of strong radiowave scatter at a ~85–90 km altitude with very high frequency radars were explained in the early 1990s, when it was demonstrated that these were due to special turbulent and small-scale scatterers with high Schmidt number. Studies of these phenomena have primarily been concentrated in polar regions, and the events seem most prominent in regions of very cold air (below 140 K). Such radar echoes are referred to as polar mesosphere summer echoes (PMSE), and are rare at lower latitudes. In this paper we report observations of similar scatterers at sites below 50° latitude. The nature of these scatterers is discussed and results are compared to observations at the polar site of Eureka, Canada. Mid-latitude observations at frequencies of 48.92 and 45.47 MHz were made, respectively, at Abitibi Canyon (49.9° N latitude) and Markstay (46.5° N latitude) in Ontario, Canada. In particular, we look at the relationship of these scatterers to geophysical parameters, especially the A_p index. Our results suggest that mesospheric air with temperatures less than 140 K now exists below 50° latitude. This may be an indication of an equator-ward creep of global mesospheric cooling (which is associated with the well-known tropospheric global warming), but the scatterers at lower latitudes also demonstrate correlation with the A_p index. On the other hand, the polar scatterers at Eureka demonstrated no correlation of any significance with A_p. The importance of these results in regard to the global distribution of mesospheric temperatures is discussed, and comparisons to other measurements are made. Full article

The research studied the comparison of the night air temperatures and the atomic oxygen airglow intensities at the mesopause obtained with satellite and ground-based instruments. Satellite data used in this study were obtained with the SABER limb-scanning radiometer operating aboard the TIMED satellite. Data of ground-based monitoring were obtained using the KEO Scientific “Arinae” Fabry–Pérot interferometer adapted for aeronomic research. Since an interferometer detects parameters of the 557.7 nm line for the entire emission layer, it is not quite appropriate to perform a direct comparison between the upper atmospheric temperature obtained from ground-based observations and that from a satellite at a particular height. To compare temperatures correctly, the effective temperature must be calculated based on satellite data. The effective temperature is a height-averaged temperature profile with the weight factors equal to the 557.7 nm line intensity at relevant heights. The height profile of intensity of this natural green airglow of the upper atmosphere is calculated from the height profile of atomic oxygen concentration. Data on chemical composition and air temperature at the mesopause from SABER were used to calculate the profiles. The night intensity of the 557.7 nm emission obtained from satellite data in this way was in good accordance with the results of ground-based observations, but the temperatures were different. The reason for temperature discrepancy was assumed to lie in the incorrect position of the intensity maximum of the reconstructed emission layer. According to our calculations based on SABER data, the intensity peak was observed at the height of 94–95 km. By shifting it relative to the SABER temperature height profile, we re-calculated the effective temperatures and compared them with the interferometer data. The best coincidence between seasonal temperature variations obtained using the proposed method was achieved when the maximum of the reconstructed 557.7 nm intensity height profile was shifted to 97 km, but it could not eliminate minor local differences in temperature behavior. Full article