Search Results (68)

A reliable precipitation dataset with high spatial resolution is essential for climate research in the Tarim Basin. This study evaluated the performances of four models, namely a random forest (RF), a long short-term memory network (LSTM), a support vector machine (SVM), and a feedforward neural network (FNN). FNN, which was found to be superior to the other models, was used to integrate eight precipitation datasets spanning from 1990 to 2022 across the Tarim Basin, resulting in a new monthly high-resolution (0.1°) precipitation dataset named MoHiPr-TB. This dataset was subsequently bias-corrected by the China Land Data Assimilation System version 2.0 (CLDAS2.0). Validation results indicate that the corrected MoHiPr-TB not only accurately reflects the spatial distribution of precipitation but also effectively simulates its intensity and interannual and seasonal variations. Moreover, MoHiPr-TB is capable of detecting the precipitation–elevation relationship in the Pamir Plateau, where precipitation initially increases and then decreases with elevation, as well as the synchronous variation of precipitation and elevation in the Tianshan region. Collectively, this study delivers a high-accuracy precipitation dataset for the Tarim Basin, which is anticipated to have extensive applications in meteorological, hydrological, and ecological research. Full article

Gridded precipitation datasets (GPDs) have complemented gauge-based measurements in global hydrology by providing spatiotemporally continuous rainfall estimates for streamflow prediction. However, these datasets suffer from uncertainties in space and time, particularly in complex terrains like the Himalayas. Merging multi-GPDs offers a potential solution to reduce such uncertainties, but the actual contribution of the merged product to hydrological modeling remains underexplored in data-scarce and topographically complex regions. Here, we applied a gauge-independent merging technique called Signal-to-Noise Ratio optimization (SNR-opt) to merge three precipitation products: ERA5, SM2RAIN, and IMERG-late. The resulting Merged Gridded Precipitation Dataset (MGPD) was evaluated using the hydrological model (HYMOD) across three major river basins in the Central Himalayas (Koshi, Narayani, and Karnali). The results show that MGPD significantly outperforms the individual GPDs in streamflow simulation. This is evidenced by higher Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) values, 0.87 (Narayani) and 0.86 (Karnali), compared to ERA5 (0.83, 0.82), SM2RAIN (0.83, 0.85), and IMERG-Late (0.82, 0.78). In Koshi, the merged product (NSE = 0.80) showed slightly lower performance than SM2RAIN (NSE = 0.82) and ERA5 (NSE = 0.81), likely due to the poor performance of IMERG-Late (NSE = 0.69) in this basin. These findings underscore the value of merging precipitation datasets to enhance the accuracy and reliability of hydrological modeling, especially in ungauged or data-scarce mountainous regions, offering important implications for water resource management and forecasting. Full article

Precipitation plays a vital role in the hydrological cycle, directly affecting water resource management and influencing flood and drought risk prediction. This study proposes a Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) framework to integrate multiple precipitation datasets. The framework enhances estimation accuracy for hydrological simulations. The BMA framework synthesizes four precipitation products—Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS), the fifth-generation ECMWF Atmospheric Reanalysis (ERA5), Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP), and Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals (IMERG)—over China’s Ganjiang River Basin from 2008 to 2020. We evaluated the merged dataset’s performance against its constituent datasets and the Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP) at daily, monthly, and seasonal scales. Evaluation metrics included the correlation coefficient (CC), root mean square error (RMSE), and Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE). The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model was further applied to assess how these datasets affect runoff simulations. The results indicate that the BMA-merged dataset substantially improves precipitation estimation accuracy when compared with individual inputs. The merged product achieved optimal daily performance (CC = 0.72, KGE = 0.70) and showed superior seasonal skill, notably reducing biases in autumn and winter. In hydrological applications, the BMA-driven VIC model effectively replicated observed runoff patterns, demonstrating its efficacy for regional long-term predictions. This study highlights BMA’s potential for optimizing hydrological model inputs, providing critical insights for sustainable water management and risk reduction in complex basins. Full article

Accurate soil moisture (SM) estimates with high spatial resolution are highly desirable for agricultural, hydrological, and environmental applications. This study developed a two-step reconstruction approach to obtain a high-quality and high-spatial-resolution (0.05°) SM dataset from microwave and model-based SM products, combining Bayesian three-cornered hat (BTCH) merging and machine/deep learning downscaling algorithms. Firstly, a three-cornered hat (TCH) method was used to analyze the uncertainty of seven SM products on four main land cover types in the Pearl River Basin (PRB). On this basis, the SM products with low uncertainty were merged using the BTCH method. Secondly, two machine/deep learning algorithms (random forest, RF, and long short-term memory, LSTM) were applied to downscale the merged SM data from 0.25° to 0.05° based on the relationship between SM and auxiliary variables. The overall performance of RF and LSTM downscaling models with/without antecedent precipitation were compared. The merged and downscaled SM results were validated against in situ observations and the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Land Data Assimilation System (CLDAS) SM data. The results indicated the following: (1) The BTCH-based SM estimate outperformed the parent products and the AVE-based SM estimate (the arithmetic average), indicating that BTCH is a fusion approach that can effectively reduce data uncertainties and optimize weights. (2) The optimal time scale for the cumulative effect of precipitation on SM was 35 days during 2015–2020 in the PRB. SM estimations using RF and LSTM downscaling algorithms both had substantial improvement by considering the antecedent precipitation variable, both at the 0.25° and 0.05° spatial scales. Feature importance assessment also revealed the most important role of antecedent precipitation (30.01%). Moreover, the LSTM model with antecedent precipitation performed slightly better than the RF model with antecedent precipitation. (3) The downscaled SM results all mitigated the overestimation inherent in the original SM data, though they were inevitably limited by the performance of the original SM data and difficult to surpass. The developed two-step reconstruction approach was effective in generating an accurate SM dataset at a finer spatial scale for wide regional applications. Full article

How to prevent the influence of precipitation’s localized and sudden characteristics is the most formidable challenge in the quality control (QC) of precipitation observations. However, with sufficiently high spatiotemporal resolution in observational data, nuanced information can aid us in accurately distinguishing between intense, localized precipitation events, and anomalies in precipitation data. China has deployed over 70,000 automatic weather stations (AWSs) that provide high spatiotemporal resolution surface meteorological observations. This study developed a new method for performing QC of precipitation data based on the high spatiotemporal resolution characteristics of observations from surface AWSs in China. The proposed QC algorithm uses the cumulative average method to standardize the probability distribution characteristics of precipitation data and further uses the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) decomposition method to effectively identify the small-scale spatial structure of precipitation data. Leveraging the spatial correlation characteristics of precipitation, partitioned EOF detection with a 0.5° spatial coverage effectively minimizes the influence of local precipitation on quality control. Analysis of precipitation probability distribution reveals that reconstruction based on the first three EOF modes can accurately capture the organized structural features of precipitation within the detection area. Thereby, based on the randomness characteristics of the residuals, when the residual of a certain observation is greater than 2.5 times the standard deviation calculated from all residuals in the region, it can be determined that the data are erroneous. Although the quality control is primarily aimed at accumulated precipitation, the randomness of erroneous data indicates that 84 continuous instances of error data in accumulated precipitation can effectively trace back to erroneous hourly precipitation observations. This ultimately enables the QC of hourly precipitation data from surface AWSs. Analysis of the QC of precipitation data from 2530 AWSs in Jiangxi Province (China) revealed that the new method can effectively identify incorrect precipitation data under the conditions of extreme weather and complex terrain, with an average rejection rate of about 5%. The EOF-based QC method can accurately detect strong precipitation events resulting from small-scale weather disturbances, thereby preventing local heavy rainfall from being incorrectly classified as erroneous data. Comparison with the quality control results in the Tianqing System, an operational QC system of the China Meteorological Administration, revealed that the proposed method has advantages in handling extreme and scattered outliers, and that the precipitation observation data, following quality control procedures, exhibits enhanced similarity with the CMAPS merged precipitation data. The novel quality control approach not only elevates the average spatial correlation coefficient between the two datasets by 0.01 but also diminishes the root mean square error by 1 mm. Full article

Precipitation is a fundamental component of the hydrologic cycle and is an extremely important variable in meteorological, climatological, and hydrological studies. Reliable climate information including accurate precipitation data is essential for identifying precipitation trends and variability as well as applying hydrologic models for purposes such as estimating (surface) water availability and predicting flooding. In this study, I compared precipitation rates from five reanalysis datasets and one analysis dataset—the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis Version 5 (ERA-5), the Japanese 55-Year Reanalysis (JRA-55), the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 (MERRA-2), the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis 1 (NCEP/NCAR R1), the NCEP/Department of Energy Reanalysis 2 (NCEP/DOE R2), and the NCEP/Climate Forecast System Version 2 (NCEP/CFSv2)—with the merged satellite and rain gauge dataset from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project in Version 2.3 (GPCPv2.3). The latter was taken as a reference due to its global availability including the oceans. Monthly mean precipitation rates of the most recent five-year period from 2019 to 2023 were chosen for this comparison, which included calculating differences, percentage errors, Spearman correlation coefficients, and root mean square errors (RMSEs). ERA-5 showed the highest agreement with the reference dataset with the lowest mean and maximum percentage errors, the highest mean correlation, and the smallest mean RMSE. The highest mean and maximum percentage errors as well as the lowest correlations were observed between NCEP/NCAR R1 and GPCPv2.3. NCEP/DOE R2 showed significantly higher precipitation rates than the reference dataset (only JRA-55 precipitation rates were higher), the second lowest correlations, and the highest mean RMSE. Full article

Recent improvements in soil moisture mapping using satellites provide estimates at higher spatial and temporal resolutions. The accuracy in alpine regions is, however, still not well understood. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the accuracy of the experimental ASCAT-DIREX soil moisture product in a small alpine catchment and to identify factors that control the soil moisture agreement between the satellite estimates and in situ observations in open and forest sites. The analysis is carried out in the experimental mountain catchment of Jalovecký Creek, situated in the Western Tatra Mountains (Slovakia). The satellite soil moisture estimates are derived by merging the ASCAT and Sentinel-1 retrievals (the ASCAT-DIREX dataset), providing relative daily soil moisture estimates at 500 m spatial resolution in the period 2012–2019. The soil water estimates represent four characteristic timescales of 1, 2, 5, and 10 days, which are compared with in situ topsoil moisture observations. The results show that the correlation between satellite-derived and in situ soil moisture is larger at the open site and for larger characteristic timescales (10 days). The correlations have a strong seasonal pattern, showing low (negative) correlations in winter and spring and larger (more than 0.5) correlations in summer and autumn. The main reason for low correlations in winter and spring is insufficient masking of the snowpack. Using local snow data masks and soil moisture retrieval in the period December–March, improves the soil moisture agreement in April was improved from negative correlations to 0.68 at the open site and 0.92 at the forest site. Low soil moisture correlations in the summer months may also be due to small-scale precipitation variability and vegetation dynamics mapping, which result in satellite soil moisture overestimation. Full article

Satellite precipitation estimates are crucial for managing climate-related risks such as droughts and floods. However, these datasets often contain systematic errors due to the observation methods used. The accuracy of these estimates can be enhanced by integrating spatial and temporal resolution data from in situ observations. Nevertheless, the accuracy of the merged dataset is influenced by the density and distribution of rain gauges, which can vary regionally. This paper presents an approach to improve satellite precipitation data (SPD) over Burkina Faso. Two bias correction methods, Empirical Quantile Mapping (EQM) and Time and Space-Variant (TSV), have been applied to the SPD to yield a bias-corrected dataset for the period 1991–2020. The most accurate bias-corrected dataset is then combined with in situ observations using the Regression Kriging (RK) method to produce a merged precipitation dataset. The findings show that both bias correction methods achieve similar reductions in RMS error, with higher correlation coefficients (approximately 0.8–0.9) and a normalized standard deviation closer to 1. However, EQM generally demonstrates more robust and consistent performance, particularly in terms of correlation and RMS error reduction. On a monthly scale, the superiority of EQM is most evident in June, September, and October. Following the merging process, the final dataset, which incorporates satellite information in addition to in situ observations, demonstrates higher performance. It shows improvements in the coefficient of determination by 83%, bias by 11.4%, mean error by 96.7%, and root-mean-square error by 95.5%. The operational implementation of this approach provides substantial support for decision-making in regions heavily reliant on rainfed agriculture and sensitive to climate variability. Delivering more precise and reliable precipitation datasets enables more informed decisions and significantly enhances policy-making processes in the agricultural and water resources sectors of Burkina Faso. Full article

Droughts present substantial challenges to agriculture, food security, and water resources. Employing a drought index based on soil moisture dynamics is a common and effective approach for agricultural drought monitoring. However, the precision of a drought index heavily relies on accurate soil moisture and soil hydraulic parameters. This study leverages remote sensing soil moisture data from the Climate Change Initiative (CCI) series products and model-generated soil moisture data from the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. The extended triple collocation (ETC) method was applied to merge these datasets from 1992 to 2018, resulting in enhanced accuracy by 28% and 15% compared to the CCI and VIC soil moisture, respectively. Furthermore, this research establishes field capacity and a wilting point map using multiple soil datasets and pedotransfer functions, facilitating the development of an enhanced Soil Water Deficit Index (SWDI) based on merged soil moisture, field capacity, and wilting points. The findings reveal that the proposed enhanced SWDI achieves a higher accuracy in detecting agricultural drought events (probability of detection = 0.98) and quantifying their severity (matching index = 0.33) compared to an SWDI based on other soil moisture products. Moreover, the enhanced SWDI exhibits superior performance in representing drought-affected crop areas (correlation coefficient = 0.88), outperforming traditional drought indexes such as the Standardized Precipitation Index (correlation coefficient = 0.51), the Soil Moisture Anomaly Percent Index (correlation coefficient = 0.81), and the Soil Moisture Index (correlation coefficient = 0.83). The enhanced SWDI effectively captures the spatiotemporal dynamics of a drought, supporting more accurate agricultural drought monitoring and management strategies. Full article

Comprehensive evaluations of global precipitation datasets are imperative for gaining insights into their performance and potential applications. However, the existing evaluations of global precipitation datasets are often constrained by limitations regarding the datasets, specific regions, and hydrological models used for hydrologic predictions. The accuracy and hydrological utility of eight precipitation datasets (including two gauged-based, five reanalysis and one merged precipitation datasets) were evaluated on a daily timescale from 1982 to 2015 in this study by using 2404 rain gauges, 2508 catchments, and four lumped hydrological models under varying climatic conditions worldwide. Specifically, the characteristics of different datasets were first analyzed. The accuracy of precipitation datasets at the site and regional scale was then evaluated with daily observations from 2404 gauges and two high-resolution gridded gauge-interpolated regional datasets. The effectiveness of precipitation datasets in runoff simulation was then assessed by using 2058 catchments around the world in combination with four conceptual hydrological models. The results show that: (1) all precipitation datasets demonstrate proficiency in capturing the interannual variability of the annual mean precipitation, but with magnitudes deviating by up to 200 mm/year among the datasets; (2) the precipitation datasets directly incorporating daily gauge observations outperform the uncorrected precipitation datasets. The Climate Precipitation Center dataset (CPC), Global Precipitation Climatology Center dataset (GPCC) and multi-source weighted-ensemble precipitation V2 (MSWEP V2) can be considered the best option for most climate regions regarding the accuracy of precipitation datasets; (3) the performance of hydrological models driven by different datasets is climate dependent and is notably worse in arid regions (with median Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) ranging from 0.39 to 0.65) than in other regions. The MSWEP V2 posted a stable performance with the highest KGE and Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) values in most climate regions using various hydrological models. Full article

Satellite precipitation products can help improve precipitation estimates where ground-based observations are lacking; however, their relative accuracy and applicability in data-scarce areas remain unclear. Here, we evaluated the accuracy of different satellite precipitation datasets for the Lancang River Basin, Western China, including the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42RT, the Global Precipitation Measurement Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals (GPM IMERG), and Fengyun 2G (FY-2G) datasets. The results showed that GPM IMERG and FY-2G are superior to TRMM 3B42RT for meeting local research needs. A subsequent bias correction on these two datasets significantly increased the correlation coefficient and probability of detection of the products and reduced error indices such as the root mean square error and mean absolute error. To further improve data quality, we proposed a novel correction–fusion method based on window sliding data correction and Bayesian data fusion. Specifically, the corrected FY-2G dataset was merged with GPM IMERG Early, Late, and Final Runs. The resulting FY-Early, FY-Late, and FY-Final fusion datasets showed high correlation coefficients, strong detection performances, and few observation errors, thereby effectively extending local precipitation data sources. The results of this study provide a scientific basis for the rational use of satellite precipitation products in data-scarce areas, as well as reliable data support for precipitation forecasting and water resource management in the Lancang River Basin. Full article

Satellite precipitation products (SPPs) are undeniably subject to uncertainty due to retrieval algorithms and sampling issues. Many research efforts have concentrated on merging SPPs to create high-quality merged precipitation datasets (MPDs) in order to reduce these uncertainties. This study investigates the efficacy of dynamically weighted MPDs in contrast to those using static weights. The analysis focuses on comparing MPDs generated using the “dynamic clustered Bayesian averaging (DCBA)” approach with those utilizing the “regional principal component analysis (RPCA)” under fixed-weight conditions. These MPDs were merged from SPPs and reanalysis precipitation data, including TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) 3B42V7, PERSIANN-CDR, CMORPH, and the ERA-Interim reanalysis precipitation data. The performance of these datasets was evaluated in Pakistan’s diverse climatic zones—glacial, humid, arid, and hyper-arid—employing data from 102 rain gauge stations. The effectiveness of the DCBA model was quantified using Theil’s U statistic, demonstrating its superiority over the RPCA model and other individual merging methods in the study area The comparative performances of DCBA and RPCA in these regions, as measured by Theil’s U, are 0.49 to 0.53, 0.38 to 0.45, 0.37 to 0.42, and 0.36 to 0.43 in glacial, humid, arid, and hyper-arid zones, respectively. The evaluation of DCBA and RPCA compared with SPPs at different elevations showed poorer performance at high altitudes (>4000 m). The comparison of MPDs with the best performance of SPP (i.e., TMPA) showed significant improvement of DCBA even at altitudes above 4000 m. The improvements are reported as 49.83% for mean absolute error (MAE), 42.31% for root-mean-square error (RMSE), 27.94% for correlation coefficient (CC), 40.15% for standard deviation (SD), and 13.21% for Theil’s U. Relatively smaller improvements are observed for RPCA at 13.04%, 1.56%, 10.91%, 1.67%, and 5.66% in the above indices, respectively. Overall, this study demonstrated the superiority of DCBA over RPCA with static weight. Therefore, it is strongly recommended to use dynamic variation of weights in the development of MPDs. Full article

Due to the scarcity of meteorological stations on the Tibetan Plateau (TP), owing to the high altitude and harsh climate, studies often resort to satellite, reanalysis, and merged multi-source precipitation data. This necessitates an evaluation of TP precipitation data applicability. Here, we assess the following three high-resolution gridded precipitation datasets: the China Meteorological Forcing Dataset (CMFD), the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis V5-Land (ERA5-Land), and Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG) during TP summers. Using observations from the original 133 China Meteorological Administration stations on the TP as a reference, the evaluation yielded the following conclusions: (1) In summer, from 2000 to 2018, discrepancies among the datasets were largest in the western TP. The CMFD showed the smallest deviation from the observations, and the annual summer precipitation was only overestimated by 12.3 mm. ERA5-Land had the closest trend (0.41 mm/y) to the annual mean summer precipitation, whereas it overestimated the highest precipitation (>150 mm). (2) The reliability of the three datasets at annual and monthly scales was in the following order: CMFD, ERA5-Land, and IMERG. The daily scales exhibited a lower accuracy than the monthly scales (correlation coefficient CC of 0.51, 0.38, and 0.26, respectively). (3) The CMFD assessments, referencing the 114 new stations post-2016, had a notably lower accuracy and precipitation capture capability at the daily scale (CC and critical success index (CSI) decreased by 0.18 and 0.1, respectively). These results can aid in selecting appropriate datasets for refined climate predictions on the TP. Full article

Effectively simulating the variation in suspended sediment concentration (SSC) in estuaries during typhoons is significant for the water quality and ecological conditions of estuarine shoal wetlands and their adjacent coastal waters. During typhoons, SSC undergoes large variations due to the significant changes in meteorological and hydrological factors such as waves, wind speed, and precipitation, which increases the difficulty in simulating SSC. Therefore, in this study, we use an optimized Principal Component Analysis Long Short-Term Memory (PCA-LSTM) framework with an attention mechanism to simulate the SSC in the Yangtze Estuary during Typhoon In-Fa. First, we integrate data from different sources into a multi-source dataset. Second, we use the PCA to reduce the dimensionality of the multi-source data and eliminate redundant variables in the feature data. Third, we introduce an attention mechanism to optimize the long and short-term memory (LSTM) model. Finally, we use the differential evolution (DE) algorithm for hyperparameter selection and merge the feature data with the SSC data as the input of the optimized LSTM network to simulate SSC. The results showed that SSC’s fitting coefficients (R²) at four hydrological stations improved by 7.5%, 6.1%, 7.4%, and 7.8%, respectively, using the attention-based PCA-LSTM compared to the PCA-LSTM. Moreover, compared to the traditional LSTM model, the R² was improved by 33.8%, 30.5%, 32.0%, and 28.6%, respectively, using the attention-based PCA-LSTM framework. The study indicates that the selection of input variables can affect the model results. Introducing an attention mechanism can effectively optimize the PCA-LSTM framework and improve the simulation accuracy, which helps simulate the non-linear process of SSC variation occurring during Typhoon In-Fa. Full article

The Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau (QTP), which has a unique and severe environment, suffers from the absence of rainfall gauges in western arid land. Using different precipitation products in this region would easily lead to contradictory results. To evaluate nine fine-resolution precipitation products in the QTP, we propose a “down to top” methodology, based on water balance and drought chain, by forecasting two accuracy assessment indices—multi-year precipitation bias and precipitation correlation. We assessed the biases of all products in the Jinsha–Yalong, Yellow, Heihe, Yangtze, Yarlung Zangbo catchments and interior drainage areas. And we assessed gauge-based correlation of precipitation products, based on the correlations between precipitation product-based effective drought index (EDI), Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP)-based soil moisture anomaly, and the moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS)-based normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) anomaly (R = 0.712, R = 0.36, and R = 0.785, respectively) for cross-sectional rainfall observations on the Tibetan Plateau in 2018. The results showed that ERA5-Land and IMERG merged precipitation dataset (EIMD) can efficiently close the water budget at the catchment scale. Moreover, the EIMD-based EDI exhibited the best performance in correlation with both the SMAP-based soil moisture anomaly and MODIS-based NDVI anomaly for the three main herbaceous species areas—Kobresia pygmaea meadow, Stipa purpurea steppe, and Carex moorcroftii steppe. Overall, we find that EIMD is the most accurate among the nine products. The annual average precipitation (2001–2018) was determined to be 568.16 mm in the QTP. Our assessment methodology has a remote sensing basis with low cost and can be used for other arid lands in the future. Full article