Search Results (82)

Accurate wind measurements in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) region are essential for climate modeling, satellite drag estimation, and space weather prediction. This study presents a comprehensive comparison and correlation analysis of the zonal and meridional wind observations from co-located meteor radar and medium-frequency (MF) radar systems in Kunming (102.1°E, 24.2°N), China, in the year 2022. Both zonal and meridional wind components were analyzed within the overlapping altitude range of 70–100 km. Statistical distributions of the wind speeds from both radars followed a near-Gaussian pattern concentrated within ±100 m/s, indicating good consistency. A joint dataset was constructed for the 78–100 km range, where over 2000 h of concurrent observations were available. The strongest correlation between the wind speed measurements of the two radars was ~0.6, which occurred near 82–84 km. Seasonal analysis further indicated better consistency in the winter and spring months, while the summer months exhibited reduced correlations, especially for zonal wind measurements. Systematic biases between the two instruments were also identified, with minimal intercept offsets observed from April to October. This study is valuable in the development of high-quality, long-term MLT wind field datasets for atmospheric research and numerical model validation. Full article

Storm Daniel is arguably one of the most severe Mediterranean tropical-like cyclones (medicanes) ever recorded. Greece was one of the most affected areas, especially the central part of the country. The extreme precipitation that was observed along with the subsequent extensive flooding was considered a critical challenge to validate the regional version of the ICON (Icosahedral Non-Hydrostatic) numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. From a methodological standpoint, the short-range nature of the model was realized with 48 h runs over a sequence of cases that covered the storm period. The development of the medicane was highlighted via the tracking of the minimum mean sea level pressure (MSLP) in reference to the corresponding analysis of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). In a similar fashion, snapshots regarding the 500 hPa geopotential associated with the 850 hPa temperature were addressed at the 24th forecast hour of the model runs. Although the model’s performance over the four most affected synoptic stations of the Hellenic National Meteorological Service (HNMS) was mixed, the overall accumulated forecasted precipitation was in very good agreement with the corresponding total value of the observations over all the available synoptic stations. Full article

With a potentially increasing share of the electricity grid relying on wind to provide generating capacity and energy, there is an expanding global need for historically accurate, spatiotemporally continuous, high-resolution wind data. Conventional downscaling methods for generating these data based on numerical weather prediction have a high computational burden and require extensive tuning for historical accuracy. In this work, we present a novel deep learning-based spatiotemporal downscaling method using generative adversarial networks (GANs) for generating historically accurate high-resolution wind resource data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting Reanalysis version 5 data (ERA5). In contrast to previous approaches, which used coarsened high-resolution data as low-resolution training data, we use true low-resolution simulation outputs. We show that by training a GAN model with ERA5 as the low-resolution input and Wind Integration National Dataset Toolkit (WTK) data as the high-resolution target, we achieved results comparable in historical accuracy and spatiotemporal variability to conventional dynamical downscaling. This GAN-based downscaling method additionally reduces computational costs over dynamical downscaling by two orders of magnitude. We applied this approach to downscale 30 km, hourly ERA5 data to 2 km, 5 min wind data for January 2000 through December 2023 at multiple hub heights over Ukraine, Moldova, and part of Romania. With WTK coverage limited to North America from 2007–2013, this is a significant spatiotemporal generalization. The geographic extent centered on Ukraine was motivated by stakeholders and energy-planning needs to rebuild the Ukrainian power grid in a decentralized manner. This 24-year data record is the first member of the super-resolution for renewable energy resource data with wind from the reanalysis data dataset (Sup3rWind). Full article

Understanding optical turbulence within the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) is essential for refining atmospheric motion analyses, enhancing numerical weather prediction models, and improving light propagation assessments. This study develops an optical turbulence model for the boundary layer over the South China Sea (SCS) by integrating multiple observational and reanalysis datasets, including ERA5 data from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), radiosonde observations, coherent Doppler wind lidar (CDWL), and ultrasonic anemometer (CSAT3) measurements. Utilizing Monin–Obukhov Similarity Theory (MOST) as the theoretical foundation, the model’s performance is evaluated by comparing its outputs with the observed diurnal cycle of near-surface optical turbulence. Error analysis indicates a root mean square error (RMSE) of less than 1 and a correlation coefficient exceeding 0.6, validating the model’s predictive capability. Moreover, this study demonstrates the feasibility of employing ERA5-derived temperature and pressure profiles as alternative inputs for optical turbulence modeling while leveraging CDWL’s high-resolution observational capacity for all-weather turbulence characterization. A comprehensive statistical analysis of the atmospheric refractive index structure constant ($C_n^2$) from November 2019 to September 2020 highlights its critical implications for optoelectronic system optimization and astronomical observatory site selection in the SCS region. Full article

In the Himalayan regions of complex terrains, such as Himachal Pradesh, the occurrence of extreme rainfall events (EREs) has been increasing, triggering landslides and flash floods. Investigating the dynamics and precipitation characteristics and improving the prediction of such events are crucial and could play a vital role in contributing to sustainable development in the region. This study employs a high-resolution numerical weather prediction framework, the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model, to deeply investigate an ERE which occurred between 8 July and 13 July 2023. This ERE caused catastrophic floods in the Mandi and Kullu districts of Himachal Pradesh. The WRF model was configured with nested domains of 12 km and 4 km horizontal grid resolutions, and the results were compared with global high-resolution precipitation products and the fifth-generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts atmospheric reanalysis dataset. The selected case study was amplified by the synoptic scale features associated with the position and intensity of the monsoon trough, including mesoscale processes like orographic lifting. The presence of a western disturbance and the heavy moisture transported from the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal both intensified this event. The model has effectively captured the spatial distribution and large-scale dynamics of the phenomenon, demonstrating the importance of high-resolution numerical modeling in accurately simulating localized EREs. Statistical evaluation revealed that the WRF model overestimated extreme rainfall intensity, with the root mean square error reaching 17.33 mm, particularly during the convective peak phase. The findings shed light on the value of high-resolution modeling in capturing localized EREs and offer suggestions for enhancing disaster management and flood forecasting. Full article

As extreme forms of tropical cyclones (TCs), typhoons pose significant threats to both human society and the natural environment. To better understand and predict their behavior, scientists have relied on numerical simulations. Current typhoon modeling primarily falls into two categories: (1) complex simulations based on fluid dynamics and thermodynamics, and (2) empirical parameterized models. Most comparative studies on these models have focused on wind speed below 50 m/s, with fewer studies addressing high wind speed (above 50 m/s). In this study, we design and compare four different simulation approaches to model two super typhoons: Typhoon Surigae (2102) and Typhoon Nepartak (1601). These approaches include: (1) The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulation driven by NCEP Final Operational Global Analysis data (FNL), (2) WRF simulation driven by the fifth generation of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis data (ERA5), (3) the empirical parameterized Holland model, and (4) the empirical parameterized Jelesnianski model. The simulated wind fields were compared with the measured wind data from The Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) platform, and the resulting wind fields were then used as inputs for the Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) model to simulate typhoon-induced waves. Our findings are as follows: (1) for high wind speeds, the performance of the empirical models surpasses that of the WRF simulations; (2) using more accurate driving wind data improves the WRF model’s performance in simulating typhoon wind speeds, and WRF simulations excel in representing wind fields in the outer regions of the typhoon; (3) careful adjustment of the maximum wind speed radius parameter is essential for improving the accuracy of the empirical models. Full article

In this study, the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) is employed to construct a three-dimensional barotropic ocean model with a monodirectional upper boundary and homogeneous and steady wind covering the entire computation area. Eight perturbation experiments are designed to determine the vertical grid distribution difference with high resolution at the surface and bottom. Two types are considered in the model, including removing the Coriolis force (type 1) and employing a different Coriolis force (type 2). According to the experiments, the velocity of the current in type 1 yields uncertainty, and wind energy could penetrate the upper ocean and reach the abyss. The surface velocity in type 2 is fundamentally compatible with the empirical relationship constructed by Ekman, and the curved lines of the vertical distribution of horizontal currents nearly match. For type 1, the velocity is very strong from the sea surface to the bottom. When comparing type 1 and type 2 cases, the Coriolis force obstructs the wind energy transfer into the deep ocean. In addition, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)’s global surface wind distribution indicates that the realistic ocean upper wind boundary is similar to the numerical experiment in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, where the wind direction is along the latitude line at the equator. In order to make the experimental situation as close as possible to the real ocean, validation experiments are conducted in this study to consider the uncertainty in the current profile at the equator. The simulation results of type 1 differ significantly from the data obtained from the real ocean. This uncertainty may transfer the signal to higher latitudes, causing incorrect simulation results, especially in the critical region. Overall, this research not only makes discoveries in physical ocean theory but also guides predictive and forecasting techniques for ocean modeling. Full article

The adequate representation of interactions between the land surface and the atmosphere is of crucial importance in modern numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems. In this context, this study examines how errors in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) depend on the quality of near-surface prediction over land for medium-range NWP. Two series of 10-day forecasts from Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC)’s global deterministic prediction system were evaluated: one similar to what is currently used in ECCC’s operational systems and the other with improved land surface modeling and land data assimilation. An objective evaluation was performed for the 2019 summer season in North America, with a special emphasis on three specific areas: northern Canada, the central US, and the southeastern US. The results indicate that the impact of the new land surface package is more difficult to interpret in the PBL than it is at the screen level. The error differences between the two experiments are quite distinct for the three regions examined. As expected, random errors (standard deviations) for air temperature and specific humidity in the PBL are directly linked with their own random errors at the screen level, with correlation coefficients decreasing from a value of one at the surface to values of about 0.2–0.3 a few kilometers above the surface. Less expected, however, is the fact that random errors in the lower atmosphere also strongly depend on changes in air temperature biases at the surface. Warmer near-surface conditions lead to increased random errors for air temperature in the lower atmosphere, in association with the development of the deeper PBL, with greater spatial variability. This finding is of particular interest when evaluating new configurations of NWP systems for implementation in national meteorological and environmental prediction centers. Full article

With the advancement of society and the impact of various factors such as climate change, surface conditions, and human activities, there has been a significant increase in the frequency of extreme rainfall events, leading to substantial losses from flood disasters. The presence of numerous small and medium-sized water conservancy projects in the basin plays a crucial role in influencing runoff production and rainwater confluence. However, due to the lack of extensive historical hydrological data for simulation purposes, it is challenging to accurately predict floods in the basin. Therefore, there is a growing emphasis on flood simulation and forecasting that takes into account the influence of upstream water projects. Moushan Reservoir basin is located in a hilly area of an arid and semi-arid region in the north of China. Flooding has the characteristics of sudden strong, short confluence time, steep rise, and steep fall, especially floods caused by extreme weather events, which have a high frequency and a wide range of hazards, and has become one of the most threatening natural disasters to human life and property safety. There are many small and medium-sized reservoirs in this basin, which have a significant influence on the accuracy of flood prediction. Therefore, taking Moushan Reservoir as an example, this paper puts forward a flash flood simulation method for reservoirs in hilly areas, considering upstream reservoirs, which can better solve the problem of flood simulation accuracy. Using the virtual aggregation method, the 3 medium-sized reservoirs and 93 small upstream reservoirs are summarized into 7 aggregated reservoirs. Then, we construct the hydrological model combining two method sets with different runoff generation and confluence mechanisms. Finally, after model calibration and verification, the results of different methods are analyzed in terms of peak discharge error, runoff depth error, difference in peak time, and certainty coefficient. The results indicate that the flooding processes simulated by the proposed model are in line with the observed ones. The errors of flood peak and runoff depth are in the ranges of 2.3% to 15% and 0.1% to 19.6%, respectively, meeting the requirements of Class B accuracy of the “Water Forecast Code”. Method set 1 demonstrates a better simulation of floods with an average flood peak error of 5.63%. All these findings illustrate that the developed model, utilizing aggregate reservoirs and dynamic parameters to reflect regulation and storage functions, can effectively capture the impact of small water conservancy projects on confluence. This approach addresses challenges in simulating floods caused by small and medium-sized reservoirs, facilitating basin-wide flood prediction. Full article

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology offers a national operational 7-day ensemble streamflow forecast service covering regions of high environmental, economic, and social significance. This semi-automated service generates streamflow forecasts every morning and is seamlessly integrated into the Bureau’s Hydrologic Forecasting System (HyFS). Ensemble rainfall forecasts, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), and Poor Man’s Ensemble (PME), available in the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) suite, are used to generate these streamflow forecasts. The NWP rainfall undergoes pre-processing using the Catchment Hydrologic Pre-Processer (CHyPP) before being fed into the GR4H rainfall–runoff model, which is embedded in the Short-term Water Information Forecasting Tools (SWIFT) hydrological modelling package. The simulated streamflow is then post-processed using Error Representation and Reduction In Stages (ERRIS). We evaluated the performance of the operational rainfall and streamflow forecasts for 96 catchments using four years of operational data between January 2020 and December 2023. Performance evaluation metrics included the following: CRPS, relative CRPS, CRPSS, and PIT-Alpha for ensemble forecasts; NSE, PCC, MAE, KGE, PBias, and RMSE; and three categorical metrics, CSI, FAR, and POD, for deterministic forecasts. The skill scores, CRPS, relative CRPS, CRPSS, and PIT-Alpha, gradually decreased for both rainfall and streamflow as the forecast horizon increased from Day 1 to Day 7. A similar pattern emerged for NSE, KGE, PCC, MAE, and RMSE as well as for the categorical metrics. Forecast performance also progressively decreased with higher streamflow volumes. Most catchments showed positive performance skills, meaning the ensemble forecast outperformed climatology. Both streamflow and rainfall forecast skills varied spatially across the country—they were generally better in the high-runoff-generating catchments, and poorer in the drier catchments situated in the western part of the Great Dividing Range, South Australia, and the mid-west of Western Australia. We did not find any association between the model forecast skill and the catchment area. Our findings demonstrate that the 7-day ensemble streamflow forecasting service is robust and draws great confidence from agencies that use these forecasts to support decisions around water resource management. Full article

Near real-time aerosol fields from the Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Services (CAMS), operated by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), are configured for use in the HARMONIE-AROME Numerical Weather Prediction model. Aerosol mass mixing ratios from CAMS are introduced in the model through the first guess and lateral boundary conditions and are advected by the model dynamics. The cloud droplet number concentration is obtained from the aerosol fields and used by the microphysics and radiation schemes in the model. The results show an improvement in radiation, especially during desert dust events (differences of nearly 100 W/m² are obtained). There is also a change in precipitation patterns, with an increase in precipitation, mainly during heavy precipitation events. A reduction in spurious fog is also found. In addition, the use of the CAMS near real-time aerosols results in an improvement in global shortwave radiation forecasts when the clouds are thick due to an improved estimation of the cloud droplet number concentration. Full article

On 6 June 2017, four severe clear-air turbulence (CAT) events were observed over northern China within 3 h. These events mainly occurred at altitudes between 8.1 and 9.5 km. The characteristics and possible mechanisms of the CAT events in the different regions are investigated here using the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model. The simulated wind and temperature fields in a 27 km coarse domain were found to be in good agreement with those of the ERA5 (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis v5) and the observed soundings of operational radiosondes over northern China. In terms of synoptic features, the region where the turbulence occurred is characterized by a southwest–northeast upper-level jet stream. The upper-level jet stream observed at an altitude of 10.4 km consistently moved eastwards, with a maximum wind speed of 61.7 m/s. Simultaneously, the upper-level front–jet system on the cyclonic shear side of the upper-level jet stream also exhibited an eastward motion. The developed upper-level front–jet system induced significant vertical wind shear (VWS) and tropopause folding in the vicinity of these CAT events. Despite the high stability resulting from tropopause folding, the presence of strong VWS (1.90 × 10⁻² s⁻¹–2.55 × 10⁻² s⁻¹) led to a low Richardson number (Ri) (0.24–0.88) and caused Kelvin–Helmholtz instability (KHI), which ultimately induced CAT. Although a standard numerical weather forecast resolution of tens of kilometers is adequate to capture turbulence for most CAT events, it is still necessary to use high-resolution numerical simulations (such as 3 km) to calculate more accurate CAT indices (such as Ri) for CAT prediction in some specific cases. Full article

HIRAS-II is the hyperspectral detector carried on FengYun-3E which is the world’s first meteorological satellite in dawn–dusk orbit. It fills the observation gaps during the dawn and dusk periods of polar orbit meteorological satellites, enabling a 100% global data coverage and assimilation of polar orbit satellite data within each 6 h window for numerical weather forecasting models. With 3053 vertical detection channels, it provides high-resolution vertical temperature and humidity information, thus playing an important role in improving the forecast skills of the global medium-range weather prediction models. This study assimilated data from 56 CO₂ channels of FY-3E HIRAS into the CMA-GFS 4DVAR system. Two sets of experiments, FY3EHIRAS and CTRL, were designed, conducting a one-month cycle assimilation test to evaluate the impact of assimilating FY-3E HIRAS data on CMA-GFS analysis and forecasting. Using the ECMWF reanalysis data ERA5 as a reference, the study demonstrated that after assimilating data from FY-3E HIRAS’s 56 CO₂ channels, there was a certain extent of improvement in the temperature field at almost all model levels. The RMSE notably reduced in the southern hemisphere’s temperature analysis field near the surface and at 500 hPa by 3.5% and 2%, respectively. The most significant improvement in the entire temperature analysis field was observed in the tropical region, followed by the southern and then the northern hemisphere. Additionally, there was a reduction in RMSE for the height and wind fields, showing considerable improvement compared to the CTRL experiment. Overall, assimilating the FY-3E HIRAS data led to positive improvements in the forecasting skills for temperature, wind fields, and height fields in both the southern and northern hemispheres. The forecasting effectiveness was slightly lower in the tropical region but displayed an overall neutral-to-positive effect. Full article

Maritime safety and the protection of the marine environment were the primary objectives of two European projects that the National Research Council of Italy had participated in, with numerical applications in two areas located in the northern part of Sardinia, Italy. Specifically, two operational Numerical Prediction Systems (NPS) for pollution risk management were developed; the first was applied to the area of the Bonifacio Strait and the Gulf of Asinara and the second to the port of Olbia. These systems are composed of many oceans and particle tracking numerical models. They are forced with meteorological and ocean data provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Copernicus Marine Service and their outputs have been compared with in situ measurements for preliminary calibration. A web graphical interface was ad hoc designed, specifically responding to projects’ needs, providing online access to a 3-day oceanographic forecast and advanced diagnostic variables like Oil Stranding Time, Risk Score and Water Age. These products, along with the interactive web platform, prove invaluable for marine spatial planning, prevention and emergency management at sea, for the use of competent governmental and local bodies. Full article

Traditional gravity wave drag parameterizations produce wind stresses that are insensitive to changing horizontal resolution in numerical weather prediction (NWP), partly due to the idealized elliptical assumption. This study employs the modified subgrid-scale orography scheme based on the Fourier transform into gravity wave drag scheme of the China Meteorological Administration Global Forecast System (CMA-GFS) to assess its impacts on simulating precipitation during the slow-moving period of Typhoon In-Fa after its landfall in Zhejiang Province, China. The simulation with the updated scheme can effectively reduce the accumulated precipitation bias of the control one and improve the simulation of precipitation distribution and intensity, especially in the hourly precipitation simulation. The improved scheme primarily influences the wind field of the low-level troposphere and also changes the convergence of the integrated water vapor transport and ascending motions related to the reduced precipitation biases. The modified scheme enhances the tendencies of the horizontal winds caused by the varying horizontal resolutions in the model, strengthening the sensitivity of the gravity wave drag across the horizontal scales. Results from medium-range forecasts indicate the modified scheme benefits the statistics scores of precipitation over China and also reduces root-mean-square errors of 2 m temperature and 10 m winds. Full article