Search Results (16)

To improve the seismic performance of buildings and reduce earthquake-related disaster risks, this study employs the MIDAS finite element analysis platform to establish a numerical model of a 15-story concrete-filled steel tube frame-shear wall structure. Recorded natural ground motion data are used as the primary input, and a main shock-aftershock sequence is constructed using an attenuation-based method. On this basis, a seismic fragility analysis framework is adopted to derive structural fragility curves, which are subsequently assembled into a comprehensive seismic fragility matrix. The results indicate that, under identical main shock-aftershock sequences, aftershock effects increase the collapse probability of the unretrofitted structure by approximately 17–37%. Furthermore, when buckling-restrained braces are introduced, the structural strength at the same damage state increases by about 8% under the action of the main shock alone and by nearly 24% when both the main shock and aftershocks are considered. Full article

On 2 December 2020, an earthquake with a magnitude of M_w 4.5 occurred near the city of Thiva (Greece). The aftershock sequence, triggered by ruptures on or near the Kallithea fault, continued until January 2021. Seven months later, new seismic activity began a few kilometers west of the initial events, with the swarm displaying a general trend of spatiotemporal migration toward the east–southeast until the middle of 2022. In order to understand the physical and statistical pattern of the swarm, the seismicity was relocated using HypoDD, and the magnitude of completeness was determined using the frequency–magnitude distribution. In order to define the existence of spatiotemporal seismicity clusters in an objective way, the DBSCAN clustering algorithm was applied to the 2020–2022 Thiva earthquake sequence. The extracted clusters permit the analysis of the spatiotemporal scaling properties of the main clusters using the Non-Extensive Statistical Physics (NESP) approach, providing detailed insights into the nature of the long-term correlation of the seismic swarm. The statistical pattern observed aligns with a Q-exponential distribution, with q_D values ranging from 0.7 to 0.8 and q_T values from 1.44 to 1.50. Furthermore, the frequency–magnitude distributions were analyzed using the fragment–asperity model proposed within the NESP framework, providing the non-additive entropic parameter (q_M). The results suggest that the statistical characteristics of earthquake clusters can be effectively interpreted using NESP, highlighting the complexity and non-additive nature of the spatiotemporal evolution of seismicity. In addition, the analysis of the properties of the seismicity clusters extracted using the DBSCAN algorithm permits the suggestion of possible physical mechanisms that drive the evolution of the two main and larger clusters. For the cluster that activated first and is located in the west–northwest part, an afterslip mechanism activated after the 2 September 2021, M 4.0 events seems to predominately control its evolution, while for the second activated cluster located in the east–southeast part, a normal diffusion mechanism is proposed to describe its migration pattern. Concluding, we can state that in the present work the application of the DBSCAN algorithm to recognize the existence of any possible spatiotemporal clustering of seismicity could be helping to provide detailed insight into the statistical and physical patterns in earthquake swarms. Full article

On 6 February 2023, Türkiye experienced a pair of consecutive earthquakes with magnitudes of Mw 7.8 and 7.5, and accompanied by an intense aftershock sequence. These seismic events were particularly impactful on the segments of the East Anatolian Fault Zone (EAFZ), causing extensive damage to both human life and urban centers in Türkiye and Syria. This study explores the analysis of a dataset spanning almost one year following the Turkiye mainshocks, including 471 events with a magnitude of completeness (Mc) ≥ 4.4. We employed the maximum likelihood approach to estimate the b-value and Omori-Utsu parameters (K, c, and p-values). The estimated b-value is 1.21 ± 0.1, indicating that the mainshocks occurred in a region characterized by elevated stress levels, leading to a sequence of aftershocks of larger magnitudes due to notable irregularities in the rupture zone. The aftershock decay rate (p-value = 1.1 ± 0.04) indicates a rapid decrease in stress levels following the main shocks. However, the c-value of 0.204 ± 0.058 would indicate a relatively moderate or low initial productivity of aftershocks. Furthermore, the k-value of 76.75 ± 8.84 suggests that the decay of aftershock activity commenced within a range of approximately 68 to 86 days following the mainshocks. The fractal dimension (Dc) was assessed using the correlation integral method, yielding a value of 0.99 ± 0.03. This implies a tendency toward clustering in the aftershock seismicity and a linear configuration of the epicenters. The slip ratio during the aftershock activity was determined to be 0.75, signifying that 75% of the total slip occurred in the primary rupture, with the remaining fraction distributed among secondary faults. The methodologies and insights acquired in this research can be extended to assist in forecasting aftershock occurrences for future earthquakes, thus offering crucial data for future risk assessment. Full article

Earthquakes are often followed by higher-intensity aftershocks, which tend to aggravate the accumulated and more severe damage to building structures. The seismic vulnerability of concrete-filled steel tube (CFST) structures under major aftershocks is more complex. In this paper, a CFST frame and a frame with buckling-restrained braces (BRBs) are studied, and the finite element analysis software Midas 2022 is used to analyze the seismic vulnerability of the two types of structures under main shock and main–aftershock. The results show that the structural vulnerability of the two structures is significantly higher under the main–aftershock sequences than under the main shock alone. Compared with the CFST structure, the structure with BRBs can effectively reduce the structural displacement and the hysteretic energy, decrease the plastic deformation risk of the structural components, and improve the seismic performance. The structure with BRBs can significantly reduce the probability of structural collapse under the main–aftershock sequence and can provide a reliable guarantee of the stability of the building. Full article

The Arraiolos Zone has been affected by the persistent superficial seismicity (focal depth < 20 km) of a weak magnitude (M < 4) and some events of a higher magnitude (M > 4), and is mainly located around the Aldeia da Serra village. On 15 January 2018, at 11:51 UTC, the largest instrumental earthquake recorded in that area occurred, with a magnitude (ML 4.9) located northeast of Arraiolos, near the Aldeia da Serra village. This event was followed by a sequence of aftershocks with a magnitude (ML) ≤ 3.5. This seismic sequence was monitored by the designated temporary seismic network of Arraiolos, comprising 12 broadband seismic stations (CMG 6TD, 30 s) from the ICT (Institute of Earth Sciences, Évora) and 21 short-period stations (CDJ 2.0 Hz) from the IDL (Instituto Dom Luiz), distributed around the epicenter, within a radius of approximately 25 km. To infer the structure and kinematics of faults at depth and to constrain the crustal stress field in which the earthquakes occur, we use the polarities of the first P-wave arrivals and the S/P amplitude ratios to better constrain the focal mechanisms of 54 events selected, and apply the HASH algorithm. Overall, the good-quality (defined by the HASH parameters) focal solutions are characterized by a mixture of reverse and strike-slip mechanisms in our study area (AZS). Our seismicity and focal mechanism results suggest that the horizontal stress is more dominant than the vertical one and oriented in the NW–SE direction, parallel with the strike of the main faults. This analysis leads us to affirm that the ASZ is an active right-lateral shear zone. Full article

At present, traditional seismic design methods often ignore the structural damage caused by aftershocks in the evaluation of structural stability. In this paper, seven main aftershock sequences were constructed by using the attenuation method. The incremental dynamic analysis method (IDA) was used to analyze the nonlinear dynamic time history of the aqueduct structure. The main aftershock vulnerability curve of the aqueduct structure was obtained by taking the seismic intensity IM and the maximum ratio of the plastic strain energy to the total strain energy $D_p$ as the structural performance parameter. The analysis results show that the residual displacement of the aqueduct increases by 33%, 66%, 44%, 37%, 0.01%, 60%, and 59%, respectively, under the seven main aftershock sequences. The incremental damage percentages of the aftershock at the end of the period were 9.85%, 15.00%, 26.53%, 2.10%, 0.9%, 35.97%, and 9.85%, respectively. The main aftershock made the damage at the bottom of the arch and the aqueduct more extensive. When the earthquake intensity is 0.3 g, the exceedance probabilities of moderate damage and severe damage are 62.68% and 14.39%, respectively, under the action of the main aftershock sequence. The exceedance probabilities under the action of the main aftershock sequence are 38.52% and 12.08% higher than that of the single main earthquake, respectively. Full article

The Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model is a widely used tool for cluster analysis and forecasting, owing to its ability to accurately predict aftershock occurrences. However, its capacity to explain the increase in seismic activity prior to large earthquakes—known as foreshocks—has been called into question due to inconsistencies between simulated and experimental catalogs. To address this issue, we introduce a generalization of the ETAS model, called the Epidemic Type Aftershock Foreshock Sequence (ETAFS) model. This model has been shown to accurately describe seismicity in Southern California. In this study, we demonstrate that the ETAFS model is also effective in the Italian catalog, providing good agreement with the instrumental Italian catalogue (ISIDE) in terms of not only the number of aftershocks, but also the number of foreshocks—where the ETAS model fails. These findings suggest that foreshocks cannot be solely explained by cascades of triggered events, but can be reasonably considered as precursory phenomena reflecting the nucleation process of the main event. Full article

Precise earthquake locations and InSAR (Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar) deformation observation are the major methods to understand the earthquake occurrence and disaster-causing process. This paper proposes a processing framework for analyzing strong earthquake mechanisms from one-dimensional velocity inversion to precise earthquake locations combined with InSAR deformation observation, and discusses earthquake-generating fault and dynamic mechanisms of tectonic deformation. We analyzed the Menyuan Ms 6.9 earthquake in 2022 and discuss the historical seismic activities and corresponding stress adjustment processes in the research region. To analyze and study the seismogenic structure and mechanism of the earthquake, we investigated the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of the Menyuan earthquake sequence and analyzed the InSAR coseismic deformation field. We obtained the precise locations of the main shock and aftershocks and the coseismic InSAR deformation field of the main shock. It was confirmed that the Ms 6.9 earthquake was a shallow sinistral strike-slip earthquake, which led to the sequential activation of the Tuolaishan and Lenglongling faults. The main seismogenic fault of the mainshock was the northwestern end of the Lenglongling fault, and the earthquake rupture was segmented. It can be inferred that the earthquake was a stress-adjusted event triggered in the Qilian-Haiyuan tectonic belt caused by the northeasterly push of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The risk of moderate to high earthquakes in the region remains high in the future, requiring enhanced seismic observations. Full article

Multi-source datasets, including the UAV-Lidar/Photogrammetry, InSAR, and field investigation data, have been used for revealing the complex surface displacement pattern and focal mechanism of the 2021 Maduo Mw 7.3 earthquake. First, a co-seismic surface deformation field was extracted from the Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images captured by ALOS-2 and Sentinel-1 satellites. Second, the SAR pixel offset tracking results were adopted to detect the initial location of the seismogenic fault. Then, the Lidar digital elevation model with high spatial resolution and field investigation were employed to refine and verify the location of the seismogenic fault. It was found that bifurcated strike-slip rupture should account for the 2021 Maduo earthquake. As indicated by the estimated faulting model based on the InSAR data, the maximal fault slip was ~6.2 m, occurring in the southeast of the main seismogenic fault, and five remarkable slip concentrations controlled the surface displacement of the 2021 Maduo earthquake. Furthermore, the co- and post-seismic InSAR deformation, dilatation, shear strain, Coulomb failure stress, and aftershock sequence suggest that the co-seismic rupture of the two main seismogenic faults have triggered the aseismic slip along the Changmahe fault. Lastly, according to the Coulomb failure stress change due to the historical earthquakes and the 2021 Maduo earthquake, the 1937 M 7.8 earthquake predominantly controlled the Coulomb failure stress change along the Kunlun fault, and the Xidatan-Alake Lake and Maqin segments had a higher risk of future earthquake than the other segments. Full article

The 27 September 2021 damaging mainshock (Mw6.0) close to Arkalochori village is the strongest earthquake that was recorded during the instrumental period of seismicity in Central Crete (Greece). The mainshock was preceded by a significant number of foreshocks that lasted nearly four months. Maximum ground subsidence of about 18 cm was estimated from InSAR processing. The aftershock sequence is located in an almost NE-SW direction and divided into two main clusters, the southern and the northern ones. The foreshock activity, the deformation area, and the strongest aftershocks are located within the southern cluster. Based on body-wave travel times, a 3-D velocity model was developed, while using combined space and ground-based geodetic techniques, the co-seismic ground deformation is presented. Moreover, we examined the co-seismic static stress changes with respect to the aftershocks’ spatial distribution during the major events of the foreshocks, the Mw = 6.0 main event as well as the largest aftershock. Both the foreshock and the aftershock sequences obey the scaling law for the frequency-magnitude distribution as derived from the framework of non-extensive statistical physics (NESP). The aftershock production rate decays according to the modified Omori scaling law, exhibiting various Omori regimes due to the generation of secondary aftershock sequences. The analysis of the inter-event time distribution, based on NESP, further indicates asymptotic power-law scaling and long-range correlations among the events. The spatiotemporal evolution of the aftershock sequence indicates triggering by co-seismic stress transfer, while its slow migration towards the outer edges of the area of the aftershocks, related to the logarithm of time, further indicates a possible afterslip. Full article

The investigation of short-term earthquake-clustering features is made feasible through the application of a purely stochastic Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model. The learning period that is used for the estimation of the parameters is composed by earthquakes with M ≥ 2.6 that occurred between January 2008 and May 2017. The model predictability is retrospectively examined for the 12 June 2017 Lesvos earthquake (M_w6.4) and the subsequent events. The construction of time-dependent seismicity maps and comparison between the observed and expected earthquake number are performed in order to temporally and spatially test the evolution of the sequence, respectively. The generation of 127 target events with M ≥ 3.0 in the period June–July 2017, just before the main shock occurrence, is examined in a quantitative evaluation. The statistical criteria used for assessing the model performance are the Relative Operating Characteristic Diagram, the R-score, and the probability gain. Reliable forecasts are provided through the epidemic model testifying its superiority towards a time-invariant Poisson model. Full article

The efficiency of earthquake clustering investigation is improved as we gain access to larger datasets due to the increase of earthquake detectability. We aim to demonstrate the robustness of a new clustering method, MAP-DBSCAN, and to present a comprehensive analysis of the clustering properties in three major seismic zones of Greece during 2012–2019. A time-dependent stochastic point model, the Markovian Arrival Process (MAP), is implemented for the detection of change-points in the seismicity rate and subsequently, a density-based clustering algorithm, DBSCAN, is used for grouping the events into spatiotemporal clusters. The two-step clustering procedure, MAP-DBSCAN, is compared with other existing methods (Gardner-Knopoff, Reasenberg, Nearest-Neighbor) on a simulated earthquake catalog and is proven highly competitive as in most cases outperforms the tested algorithms. Next, the earthquake clusters in the three areas are detected and the regional variability of their productivity rates is investigated based on the generic estimates of the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model. The seismicity in the seismic zone of Corinth Gulf is characterized by low aftershock productivity and high background rates, indicating the dominance of swarm activity, whereas in Central Ionian Islands seismic zone where main shock-aftershock sequences dominate, the aftershock productivity rates are higher. The productivity in the seismic zone of North Aegean Sea vary significantly among clusters probably due to the co-existence of swarm activity and aftershock sequences. We believe that incorporating regional variations of the productivity into forecasting models, such as the ETAS model, it might improve operational earthquake forecasting. Full article

On 22 March 2020, Zagreb was struck by an M5.5 earthquake that had been expected for more than 100 years and revealed all the failures in the construction of residential buildings in the Croatian capital, especially those built in the first half of the 20th century. Because of that, extensive seismological, geological, geodetic and structural engineering surveys were conducted immediately after the main shock. This study provides descriptions of damage, specifying the building performances and their correlation with the local soil characteristics, i.e., seismic motion amplification. Co-seismic vertical ground displacement was estimated, and the most affected area is identified according to Sentinel-1 interferometric wide-swath data. Finally, preliminary 3D structural modeling of the earthquake sequence was performed, and two major faults were modeled using inverse distance weight (IDW) interpolation of the grouped hypocenters. The first-order assessment of seismic amplification (due to site conditions) in the Zagreb area for the M5.5 earthquake shows that ground motions of approximately 0.16–0.19 g were amplified at least twice. The observed co-seismic deformation (based on Sentinel-1A IW SLC images) implies an approximately 3 cm uplift of the epicentral area that covers approximately 20 km². Based on the preliminary spatial and temporal analyses of the Zagreb 2020 earthquake sequence, the main shock and the first aftershocks evidently occurred in the subsurface of the Medvednica Mountains along a deep-seated southeast-dipping thrust fault, recognized as the primary (master) fault. The co-seismic rupture propagated along the thrust towards northwest during the first half-hour of the earthquake sequence, which can be clearly seen from the time-lapse visualization. The preliminary results strongly support one of the debated models of the active tectonic setting of the Medvednica Mountains and will contribute to a better assessment of the seismic hazard for the wider Zagreb area. Full article

A growing interest appears among public authorities and society in accurate and nearly real time aftershock forecasting to manage and mitigate post-seismic risk. Existing methods for aftershock forecasting are strongly affected by the incompleteness of the instrumental datasets available soon after the main shock occurrence. The deficit of observed events, in the first part of aftershock sequences, can be naturally attributed to various mechanisms such as the inefficiency of the seismic network and the overlap of earthquake signals in seismic records. In this review, we show that short-term aftershock incompleteness can be explained only in terms of the second mechanism, whereas it is only weakly affected by the quality of the instrumental coverage. We then illustrate how standard models for earthquake forecasting can be modified to take into account this incompleteness. In particular, we focus on forecasting methods based on the data available in real time, in which many events are missing and the uncertainty in hypocenter location is considerable. We present retrospective tests that demonstrate the usefulness of these novel methods compared with traditional ones, which implement average values of parameters obtained from previous sequences. Full article

By using earthquake catalogs, previous studies have reported evidence that some changes in the spatial and temporal organization of earthquake activity are observed before and after of a main shock. These previous studies have used different approaches for detecting clustering behavior and distance-events density in order to point out the asymmetric behavior of foreshocks and aftershocks. Here, we present a statistical analysis of the seismic activity related to the $M_w=8.2$ earthquake that occurred on 7 September 2017 in Mexico. First, we calculated the inter-event time and distance between successive events for the period 1 January 1998 until 20 October 2017 in a circular region centered at the epicenter of the $M_w=8.2$ EQ. Next, we introduced the concept of pseudo-velocity as the ratio between the inter-event distance and inter-event time. A sliding window is considered to estimate some statistical features of the pseudo-velocity sequence before the main shock. Specifically, we applied the multifractal method to detect changes in the spectrum of singularities for the period before the main event on 7 September. Our results point out that the multifractality associated with the pseudo-velocities exhibits noticeable changes in the characteristics of the spectra (more narrower) for approximately three years, from 2013 until 2016, which is preceded and followed by periods with wider spectra. On the other hand, we present an analysis of patterns of seismic quiescence before the $M_w=8.2$ earthquake based on the Schreider algorithm over a period of 27 years. We report the existence of an important period of seismic quietude, for six to seven years, from 2008 to 2015 approximately, known as the alpha stage, and a beta stage of resumption of seismic activity, with a duration of approximately three years until the occurrence of the great earthquake of magnitude $M_w=8.2$ . Our results are in general concordance with previous results reported for statistics based on magnitude temporal sequences. Full article