Search Results (92)

The rapid integration of renewable energy sources and increasing complexity of modern power grids demand advanced forecasting tools capable of simultaneously predicting multiple interconnected variables. While time series foundation models (TSFMs) have demonstrated remarkable zero-shot forecasting capabilities across diverse domains, their application in power grid operations remains limited due to complex coupling relationships between load, price, emissions, and renewable generation. This paper proposes GridFM, a novel physics-informed foundation model specifically designed for multi-task energy forecasting in power systems. GridFM introduces four key innovations: (1) a FreqMixer adaptation layer that transforms pre-trained foundation model representations to power-grid-specific patterns through frequency domain mixing without modifying base weights; (2) a physics-informed constraint module embedding power balance equations and zonal grid topology using graph neural networks; (3) a multi-task learning framework enabling joint forecasting of load demand, locational-based marginal prices (LBMP), carbon emissions, and renewable generation with uncertainty-weighted loss functions; and (4) an explainability module utilizing SHAP values and attention visualization for interpretable predictions. We validate GridFM using over 10 years of real-time data from the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) at 5 min resolution, comprising more than 10 million data points across 11 load zones. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate that GridFM achieves state-of-the-art performance with an 18.5% improvement in load forecasting MAPE (achieving 2.14%), a 23.2% improvement in price forecasting (achieving 7.8% MAPE), and a 21.7% improvement in emission prediction compared to existing TSFMs including Chronos, TimesFM, and Moirai-MoE. Ablation studies confirm the contribution of each proposed component. The physics-informed constraints reduce physically inconsistent predictions by 67%, while the multi-task framework improves individual task performance by exploiting inter-variable correlations. The proposed model provides interpretable predictions supporting the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (CLCPA) 2030/2040 compliance objectives, enabling grid operators to make informed decisions for sustainable energy transition and carbon reduction strategies. Full article

Market power remains a persistent challenge in liberalized electricity spot markets, where generators can manipulate bids to distort prices and extract rents. Traditional monitoring approaches—such as structural indices or simulation-based models—offer partial insights but fail to capture the nonlinear, spatially correlated propagation of strategic behavior across transmission-constrained networks. This paper develops a diffusion neural learning framework for market power risk assessment that integrates welfare optimization, nodal pricing dynamics, and graph-based deep learning. Specifically, a Graph Diffusion Network (GDN) is trained on simulated spot market scenarios to learn how localized strategic deviations spread through the network, distort locational marginal prices, and alter system welfare. The modeling framework combines a system-wide welfare maximization objective with multi-constraint market clearing, while the GDN embeds network topology into predictive learning. Results from a case study on an IEEE 118-bus system demonstrate that the proposed method achieves an R² of 0.91 in predicting market power indices, outperforming multilayer perceptrons, recurrent neural networks, and Transformer baselines. Welfare analysis reveals that distributionally robust optimization safeguards up to 3.3 million USD in adverse scenarios compared with baseline stochastic approaches. Further, congestion mapping highlights that strategic bidding concentrates distortions at specific nodes, amplifying rents by up to 40 percent. The proposed approach thus offers both predictive accuracy and interpretability, enabling regulators to detect emerging risks and design targeted mitigation strategies. Overall, this work establishes diffusion-based learning as a novel and effective paradigm for electricity market power assessment under high uncertainty and renewable penetration. Full article

Urban river restoration provides significant ecological and social benefits, yet its market valuation remains underexamined in rapidly urbanizing inland cities. This study estimates the economic value of integrated blue–green spaces generated by the Bai River Ecological Restoration Project in Nanyang, China, using a spatially explicit hedonic pricing framework that links geocoded resale transactions with NDVI-based vegetation measures. Properties located within blue–green zones—areas jointly characterized by restored waterways and enhanced riparian greening—command an average price premium of 17.9% (CNY 1509/m²). Visual accessibility further increases housing values, although interaction effects indicate diminishing marginal premiums where multiple amenities co-occur. Quantile regressions show stronger capitalization effects in lower- and middle-priced segments, suggesting that ecological improvements may yield broad-based rather than elite-focused benefits. Spatial dependence diagnostics confirm significant autocorrelation, and Spatial Error Model estimates remain consistent with the baseline results. Overall, the findings provide robust evidence of supra-additive blue–green synergies and demonstrate the utility of combining NDVI with spatial econometric hedonic modeling. The study offers a transferable framework for supporting nature-based urban planning and informing cost–benefit evaluations of integrated ecological restoration initiatives. Full article

To address the challenges of climate change mitigation and operational flexibility in active distribution networks (ADNs) amid high renewable energy penetration, this paper proposes a low-carbon economic dispatch framework integrating demand-side carbon regulation and cyber–physical system (CPS)-enabled shared energy storage. First, a consumer-side emission penalty mechanism is developed by fusing a carbon emission flow (CEF) model with price elasticity coefficients. This mechanism embeds carbon costs into end-user electricity pricing, guiding users to adjust consumption patterns (e.g., reducing usage during high-carbon-intensity periods) and shifting partial carbon responsibility to the demand side. Second, a CPS-based shared energy storage mechanism is constructed, featuring a three-layer architecture (physical layer, control decision layer, security layer) that aggregates distributed energy storage (DES) resources into a unified, schedulable pool. A cooperative, game-based profit-sharing strategy using Shapley values is adopted to allocate benefits based on each DES participant’s marginal contribution, ensuring fairness and motivating resource pooling. Finally, a unified mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) optimization model is formulated for ADNs, co-optimizing locational marginal prices, DES state-of-charge trajectories, and demand curtailment to minimize operational costs and carbon emissions simultaneously. Simulations on a modified IEEE 33-bus system demonstrate that the proposed framework reduces carbon emissions by 4.5–4.7% and renewable energy curtailment by 71.1–71.3% compared to traditional dispatch methods, while lowering system operational costs by 6.6–6.8%. The results confirm its effectiveness in enhancing ADN’s low-carbon performance, renewable energy integration, and economic efficiency. Full article

Constrained by current market mechanisms, small-scale virtual power plants (SS-VPPs) on the distribution network side struggle to exert their market characteristics. To address this, this paper proposes a trading framework and operational strategy for distribution-side SS-VPPs to participate in the day-ahead energy market. First, an operation and trading framework for distribution networks involving SS-VPPs is proposed. This framework comprehensively considers the clearing process of the electricity energy market, the operation mechanism of the distribution network, and the cost structures of various stakeholders, while clarifying the day-ahead market clearing mechanism at the distribution network level. Next, accounting for energy balance constraints and distribution network congestion constraints, this paper establishes a collaborative optimization model between SS-VPPs and active distribution networks. After obtaining the energy optimization results for all stakeholders, distribution locational marginal pricing (DLMP) is determined based on the dual problem solution to achieve multi-stakeholder market clearing. Finally, simulations using a modified IEEE 33-node test system demonstrate the rationality and feasibility of the proposed strategy. The framework fully exploits the market characteristics and dispatch potential of SS-VPPs, significantly reduces overall system operating costs, and ensures the economic benefits of all participants. Full article

With the development of electricity spot markets, the integrated renewable-storage plant (IRSP) has emerged as a crucial entity in real-time energy markets due to its flexible regulation capability. However, traditional methods face computational inefficiency in high-dimensional bidding scenarios caused by expansive decision spaces, limiting online generation of multi-segment optimal quotation curves. This paper proposes a policy migration-based optimization framework for high-dimensional IRSP bidding: First, a real-time market clearing model with IRSP participation and an operational constraint-integrated bidding model are established. Second, we rigorously prove the monotonic mapping relationship between the cleared output and the real-time locational marginal price (LMP) under the market clearing condition and establish mathematical foundations for migrating the self-dispatch policy to the quotation curve based on value function concavity theory. Finally, a generalized inverse construction method is proposed to decompose the high-dimensional quotation curve optimization into optimal power response subproblems within price parameter space, substantially reducing decision space dimensionality. The case study validates the framework effectiveness through performance evaluation of policy migration for a wind-dual energy storage plant, demonstrating that the proposed method achieves 90% of the ideal revenue with a 5% prediction error and enables reinforcement learning algorithms to increase their performance from 65.1% to 84.2% of the optimal revenue. The research provides theoretical support for resolving the “dimensionality–efficiency–revenue” dilemma in high-dimensional bidding and expands policy possibilities for IRSP participation in real-time markets. Full article

This paper seeks to provide a cost benefit analysis of the implementation of a vehicle-to-grid (V2G) charging strategy relative to a smart charging (V1G) strategy from the perspective of an individual electric vehicle (EV) owner with and without solar photovoltaics (PV) located on their roof. This work utilizes a novel AC optimized power flow model (ACOPF) to produce distributed location marginal prices (DLMP) on a modified IEEE-33 node network and uses a complete set of real-world costs and benefits to perform this analysis. Costs, in the form of the addition of a bi-directional charger and the increased vehicle depreciation incurred by a V2G strategy, are calculated using modern reference sources. This produces a more true-to-life comparison of the V1G and V2G strategies from the frame of reference of EV owners, rather than system operators, with parameterization of EV penetration levels performed to look at how the choice of strategy may change over time. Counter to much of the existing literature, when the analysis is performed in this manner it is found that the benefits of implementing a V2G strategy in the U.S.—given current compensation schemes—do not outweigh the incurred costs to the vehicle owner. This result helps explain the gap in findings between the existing literature—which typically finds that a V2G strategy should be favored—and the real world, where V2G is rarely employed by EV owners. Full article

In a collaborative effort with private agents of the oilseed industry, INIA conducted a research study to determine the feasibility of framing soybean production in Uruguay into a sustainable development pathway. A spatial model based on land suitability analysis and the imposition of other soil restrictions (risk erosion, current regulations, and permanent soil uses) was adopted to estimate potential soybean yields and the most suitable cropping areas in the country. Assuming a national average production cost for soybeans, total costs were calculated by adding location-specific logistics and land rent costs. Crop economic margins were estimated using a combination of price, technology, and climate-change scenarios. Only areas exhibiting non-negative margins were considered suitable for sustainable cultivation. With all restrictions imposed, the potential soybean area on rotation with other crops and pastures in Uruguay would range between 2.1 and 2.9 million hectares, depending on the prevailing producer price level. Climate change effects did not show significant differences on their own. This ad-hoc approach can be useful for private and public decision-makers. It can be applied to any crop situation or region where the objective is to define how far it is possible to expand and intensify production sustainably, without compromising the environment. Full article

The electricity market can optimize the resource allocation in power systems by calculating the market clearing problem. However, in the market clearing process, various market operation requirements must be considered. These requirements might cause the obtained power system dispatch instructions to deviate from the optimal solutions of original market clearing problems, thereby compromising the economic properties of locational marginal price (LMP). To mitigate the adverse effects of such optimality limitations, this paper proposes a pricing method for improving economic properties under the optimality limitation of power system dispatch instructions. Firstly, the underlying mechanism through which optimality limitations lead to economic property distortions in the electricity market is analyzed. Secondly, an analytical framework is developed to characterize economic properties under optimality limitations. Subsequently, an optimization-based electricity market pricing model is formulated, where price serves as the decision variable and economic properties, such as competitive equilibrium, are incorporated as optimization objectives. Case studies show that the proposed electricity market pricing method effectively mitigates the economic property distortions induced by optimality limitations and can be adapted to satisfy different economic properties based on market preferences. Full article

Amidst a period of sustained inflation and rising living costs, food insecurity is a growing concern in Australia and is correlated with poor diet quality and increased rates of non-communicable diseases. Currently there is a gap in knowledge of the impact of increasing cost-of-living pressures on the affordability of a healthy diet. As affordability plays a key role in food security, this cross-sectional study aimed to examine the costs, affordability, and differential of habitual (unhealthy) and recommended (healthy) diets within the Illawarra region of Australia and compare results to 2022 findings. The Healthy Diets Australian Standardised Affordability and Pricing tool was applied in six locations in the Illawarra, with two randomly selected each from a low, moderate, and high socioeconomically disadvantaged area. Costs were determined for three reference households: a family of four, a single parent family, and a single male. Affordability was determined for the reference households at three levels of income: median gross, minimum-wage, and welfare dependent. Data was compared to data collected in 2022 using the same methods and locations. Recommended diets cost 10.3–36% less than habitual diets depending on household type, but remained unaffordable for welfare dependant households and family households from socioeconomically disadvantaged areas, where diets required 25.5–45.9% of household income. Due to income increases, affordability of both diets has marginally improved since 2022, requiring 0.5–4.8% less household income. This study provides updated evidence that supports the urgent need for policies, interventions, and monitoring to widely assess and improve healthy diet affordability and decrease food insecurity rates. Possible solutions include increasing welfare rates above the poverty line and utilising nudge theory in grocery stores. Full article

The engagement of emerging market participants in electricity markets exerts dual influences on price formation mechanisms and operational dynamics. To quantify the impacts on locational marginal prices and stakeholders’ economic interests when EV aggregators (EVAs), cloud energy storage operators (CESSOs), and load aggregators (LAs) collectively participate in market competition, this study develops a bi-level game-theoretic framework for market equilibrium analysis. The proposed architecture comprises two interdependent layers: The upper-layer Stackelberg game coordinates strategic interactions among EVA, LA, and CESSO to mitigate bidding uncertainties through cooperative mechanisms. The lower-layer non-cooperative Nash game models competition patterns to determine market equilibria under multi-agent participation. A hybrid solution methodology integrating nonlinear complementarity formulations with genetic algorithm-based optimization was developed. Extensive numerical case studies validate the methodological efficacy, demonstrating improvements in solution optimality and computational efficiency compared to conventional approaches. Full article

In Germany, wind and photovoltaic (PV) systems dominate renewable electricity generation, with large wind turbines contributing 24.1% and PV systems contributing 10.6% in 2022. In contrast, electricity production from small wind turbines remains marginal (<0.01%). While currently only viable in high-wind locations, factors like rising electricity prices, cheaper battery storage, and increasing electrification could boost their future role. Within this work, a residential energy supply system consisting of a small wind turbine, PV system, heat pump, battery storage, and electric vehicle was dimensioned for different sites in Germany and Canada based on detailed simulation models and genetic algorithms in order to analyze the effect of bidirectional charging on optimal system dimensions and economic feasibility. This was carried out for various electricity pricing conditions. The results indicate that, with electricity purchase costs above 0.42 EUR/kWh, combined with a 25% reduction in small wind turbine and battery storage investment expenses, economic viability could be significantly enhanced. This might expand the applicability of small wind power to diverse sites. Full article

This article presents a computational model for transmission and generation expansion planning considering the impact of virtual power lines, which consists of the investment in energy storage in the transmission system as well as being able to determine the reduction and postponement of investments in transmission lines. The flexibility from the TSO-DSO interconnection is also modeled, analyzing its impact on system expansion investments. Flexibility is provided to the AC power flow transmission network model by distribution systems connected at the transmission system nodes. The transmission system flexibility requirements are provided by expansion planning performed by the connected DSOs. The objective of the model is to minimize the overall cost of system operation and investments in transmission, generation and flexibility requirements. A data-driven distributionally robust optimization-DDDRO approach is proposed to consider uncertainties of demand and variable renewable energy generation. The column and constraint generation algorithm and duality-free decomposition method are adopted. Case studies using a Garver 6-node system and the IEEE RTS-GMLC were carried out to validate the model and evaluate the values and impacts of local flexibility on transmission system expansion. The results obtained demonstrate a reduction in total costs, an improvement in the efficient use of the transmission system and an improvement in the locational marginal price indicator of the transmission system. Full article

Electricity markets are transitioning to zonal and nodal pricing to maximize social welfare, improve price signals, and enhance congestion management. South Korea, traditionally reliant on uniform pricing, is evaluating this transition but lacks a detailed impact analysis. This study assessed the impacts of various zonal and nodal pricing schemes on power systems and provided policy implications for this transition. We (1) modeled the power system at various levels of granularity, obtaining a detailed 4579-node representation; (2) constructed a set of zonal and nodal pricing schemes reflecting changes in market-clearing models and pricing mechanisms; and (3) performed quantitative analyses through simulations for each scheme. Under the current system marginal price (SMP)-based uniform pricing, the schemes with the least market impact are SMP-based zonal pricing with two bidding zones and extended locational marginal pricing. These results can guide the development of an appropriate pricing transition pathway, although a market price reduction of 4.8–7.0% appears inevitable. Within the Korean electricity market, wherein a Transco is a monopoly retailer, we identified potential conflicts of interest for the Transco in zonal and nodal pricing. By focusing on South Korea, this study offers valuable insights into any electricity market considering the transition to zonal and nodal pricing. Full article

Regulatory boards are promoting closed distribution systems (CDSs), which are different from traditional public-access networks, that can be owned and managed by energy communities (ECs). The inclusion of local renewable energy potential and an adequate schedule of storage devices in a CDS allow cooperation among the EC’s members in order to reduce operational expenditure (OPEX), providing internally competitive electricity prices with respect to those provided by publicly regulated networks and electricity markets. The CDS operators can assume a new role as the centralized energy dispatchers of generation and storage assets in order to maximize the profits of the members of the EC. This paper proposes an innovative optimal active and reactive power dispatch model for maximum community welfare conditions. A key difference between this proposal and existing social-welfare-based dispatches on public-access networks is the exclusion of the profit of the external wholesale electricity market. The focus of the proposed method is to maximize the welfare of all community members. A remuneration framework based on a collective EC with a single frontier is adopted, considering agreements between members based on locational marginal pricing (CDS-LMP). Results from an illustrative case study show a reduction of 50% in the EC’s OPEX with a payback time of 6 years for investments in CDSs, renewable sources, and storage. Full article