Search Results (601)

Nature reserves are among the regions with the richest forest and grass resources. They face dual pressures of protection and development. The non-timber forest products (NTFPs) industry combines ecological protection with economic development. This unique function provides a key solution to this contradiction. Drawing on the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB), this study employs a structural equation model (SEM). We collected survey data from 361 farmers. These farmers live in communities surrounding Yunling Provincial Nature Reserve. We empirically examine how behavioral attitude, subjective norm, and perceived behavioral control influence their willingness to participate in the non-timber forest products (NTFPs) industry. The results show that subjective norm and perceived behavioral control significantly enhance participation willingness. Subjective norm emerges as the strongest predictor. In contrast, behavioral attitude has no significant effect. This suggests that external social pressure and perceived self-capability outweigh simple benefit expectations in shaping willingness. Accordingly, we recommend three measures. First, strengthen external support to translate attitudes into actual willingness. Second, leverage social networks to amplify subjective norms. Third, enhance farmers’ endogenous capacity to consolidate their participation base. These measures can foster a win–win outcome for ecological protection and community income growth. Full article

This study aimed at developing a procedural approach to introduce agroforestry in urban planning and to provide governance orientation. The proposed approach focused on understanding: (i) the key stakeholders that can promote agroforestry; (ii) their orientations towards the integration of agroforestry in urban planning documents; and (iii) the most suitable urban planning documents in which agroforestry-sound norms can be incorporated. The approach was tested in the town of Sesto Fiorentino, in Central Italy. A total of 170 stakeholders among municipal officials, schoolteachers, farmers, gardeners, citizens frequenting city parks, associations, and researchers were identified and involved in a questionnaire-based survey. The results showed that respondents opted for gradually introducing agroforestry in the green infrastructure. Educational food forests and alley cropping were preferred as the most suitable agroforestry elements in urban and peri-urban contexts. The municipality was considered a pivotal actor for introducing agroforestry, also involving associations and citizens in a multistakeholder perspective. Decision makers introduced agroforestry in city technical implementation standards, equating it to urban forestry. However, no mention was made in the city development plan as urban planners were reluctant to incorporate agroforestry at the strategic level. Associations may facilitate municipalities in this sense and assist in implementing agroforestry-sound norms. Full article

Based on survey data from 579 farmer households in major non-timber forest product (NTFP) regions of Zhejiang Province, this study comprehensively employs binary logit/ordered probit and machine learning methods for cross-validation. It systematically examines the effects of multiple factors, including perceived property rights security, technical training, village rules and regulations, ecological awareness, and economic incentives, on forest farmers’ adoption of green production technologies. The cross-validation between econometric and machine learning approaches enhances the reliability of the findings. Results show that perceived property rights security is robustly and positively associated with green production behavior, while village rules and regulations and ecological awareness emerge as the two most critical driving factors. These associations exhibit significant NTFP-type heterogeneity: the impacts of technical training and forestry subsidies vary in direction depending on the crop cultivated, rendering traditional one-size-fits-all policies ineffective. This study highlights the crucial role of informal institutions and environmental awareness in the green transition, offering empirical evidence for designing differentiated training programs, optimizing penalty gradients, and implementing targeted subsidy policies. Full article

Groundwater level fluctuations play a critical role in shaping hydrological extremes in flat sedimentary landscapes, where shallow water table depth (WTD) and strong surface-subsurface connectivity modulate the impacts of floods and droughts. The Western Pampean Plain (Argentina) exemplifies these dynamics; however, accurate modeling is often hindered by the lack of continuous in situ monitoring. In this context, manual WTD measurements collected by local farmers represent an underexploited source of information for modeling. In this study, we developed a Random Forest framework integrating farmer-operated observations with climatic and satellite-derived data and evaluated its ability to reconstruct and predict WTD. We tested seven modeling strategies, integrating: (i) climatic variables (including effects up to 15 months); (ii) high-resolution satellite-derived Surface Water Cover Index (SWCI) from Landsat; and (iii) coarse-resolution Terrestrial Water Storage Anomalies (TWSA) from GRACE. The best-performing model integrated climatic variables and SWCI, yielding strong reconstruction (R² = 0.861, RMSE = 0.266 m) and robust prediction (R² = 0.752, RMSE = 0.344 m) performances under cross-validation and rolling-origin validation, respectively. Model interpretation revealed SWCI as the dominant predictor, reflecting the strong surface-subsurface connectivity that characterizes this environment. This study provides a practical framework that integrates farmer-operated groundwater monitoring with freely available satellite observations to support agricultural decision-making in flood and drought risk management across flat sedimentary landscapes. Full article

The Brazilian Amazon is a contested frontier, shaped by destructive and conservationist forces. Most forest clearing is driven by agro-extractivism, an agrarian pathway based on raw commodity production. The socio-biodiversity economy (SBE) has emerged in response, widely regarded as a transformative agrarian pathway capable of reconciling environmental conservation and rural livelihoods. However, recent research suggests that, as socio-biodiversity products scale up, agro-extractivist dynamics can be reproduced within the SBE. We examine this tension in the cocoa frontier of the Transamazon, where cocoa is institutionally promoted as an SBE alternative. We conduct an exploratory, mixed-methods study combining a geospatial analysis of land use and land cover (LULC) change (2020–2025, random forest classification) with a qualitative analysis drawing on participatory mapping and 87 semi-structured interviews with farmers, cooperatives, buyers, and institutional actors. Using a gradient framework, we read LULC transitions and farmers’ land use practices along an agro-extractivism–SBE continuum. The cocoa frontier emerges as a hybrid geography. The landscape is predominantly stable but internally reorganizing: anthropogenic forest declines while full-sun monoculture expands over pasture, with intensification concentrated in peri-urban areas and restoration in remote ones. Land use practices form five recurring configurations, two firmly anchored at the socio-biodiversity or agro-extractivist poles and three whose alignment with the SBE depends on access to markets, knowledge, and institutions. We argue that the frontier contestation unfolds not only between distinct economies but within the cocoa economy itself, and we identify the policy areas relevant to sustaining SBE-oriented practices in the Transamazon. More broadly, this study suggests that the classification of Amazonian forest-based economies as inherent alternatives to agro-extractivism should be treated as an empirical question rather than an assumption. Full article

The realization of forest ecological product value has been promoted as an important pathway for reconciling ecological conservation with rural prosperity. However, it remains unclear whether the growth of forest ecological product value has been synchronized with improvements in farmers’ livelihoods. Using panel data from 31 Chinese provinces from 2011 to 2022, this study develops an integrated framework combining allometric growth analysis, a Bayesian hierarchical symbiotic coefficient model, a Lotka–Volterra interaction model, a multi-period difference-in-differences design and LightGBM-SHAP interpretation. The results show that 87% of provinces exhibit negative allometric growth, indicating that forest ecological product value has generally grown faster than farmers’ income. The national symbiotic coefficient increased before 2019 but declined thereafter, suggesting a weakening ecological-livelihood synergy. The multi-period DID results indicate that the 2017 Green Finance Reform and Innovation Pilot Policy significantly weakened the symbiotic relationship in pilot provinces. LightGBM-SHAP further shows that financial development, technological progress and transportation infrastructure are key variables associated with symbiotic equilibrium, with substantial regional heterogeneity. These findings suggest that ecological product value realization and green finance do not automatically translate into inclusive livelihood benefits. More targeted benefit-sharing, financial transmission and farmer-participation mechanisms are needed to promote forest-based ecological prosperity. Full article

Coffee is a major export earner for Uganda, raking in over USD 2 billion in 2025. The global price of coffee is tagged to the perceived quality in the cup which in turn is affected by the chemical composition of the green bean. Breeding for market-preferred Arabica coffee varieties is a major objective of coffee breeding programs. Determination of coffee bean chemical constituents is routinely done through expensive, slow and tedious laboratory procedures, making it unsustainable of resource-limited public sector coffee breeding programs. Here, we demonstrate the use of near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) and the machine learning algorithms partial least squares (PLS), random forest (RF) and support vector machine (SVM) for the prediction of caffeine, protein and trigonelline in Arabica coffee. NIRS provides a fast, accurate and reliable method of simultaneously predicting multiple sample constituents. Ripe coffee cherries were picked from 172 farmers’ fields, air dried in the laboratory at room temperature and processed to green beans. NIRS spectra were taken on the milled green bean at 400–2500 nm, with a 0.5 nanometer (nm) step. Reference data for caffeine, protein and trigonelline were collected on the same sample scanned with NIRS. A set of 12 spectral pretreatments were applied prior to making calibrations with the PLS, RF and SVM algorithms and 70% of the data as a training set and 30% as a test set. Caffeine content of reference samples ranged from 1.94–3.0 g/100 g, protein content ranged from 11.16–15.94% while trigonelline ranged from 0.94–1.23 g/100 g. The best calibrations for all algorithms and analytes were obtained using raw (untreated) spectra, which gave the same results as the Savitzky–Golay (SG) pretreatment. For caffeine, the best model (R²p = 0.89, RMSEP = 0.007, RPD = 3.34) was obtained with the SVM algorithm, while for protein, the best model (R²p = 0.98, RMSEP = 0.14, RPD = 6.92) was obtained using the PLS algorithm. Finally, for trigonelline, all three models had very high prediction accuracies (R²p = 0.98–0.99, RMSEP = 0.007–0.009, RPD = 8.53–10.52). Collectively, these results demonstrate the potential of using NIRS for rapid and simultaneous prediction of coffee green bean constituents to aid selection decisions. Full article

Fire ants are known for their aggressive behavior, omnivorous diet, and construction of mounds on the soil surface. Their dispersal is facilitated by trade and habitat fragmentation, which have led to negative impacts on biodiversity, public health, and agriculture in many countries. In Brazil, information about their impacts is scarce and mostly limited to reports from the North Region. In the Atlantic Forest, a biome where most of Brazil’s population resides, there are no records of impacts associated with fire ants. This study examined farmers’ perceptions of the impacts of fire ants in the Atlantic Forest. A questionnaire was administered to collect information on respondents’ profiles, property characteristics, perceived impacts of fire ants, management practices, and health-related issues. Most respondents reported the regular presence of fire ants on their properties, although the perceived impacts on agricultural productivity were generally low to moderate, and control costs were typically less than $17. Widespread use of pesticides for fire ant control is reported by most farmers. Regarding stings, 85.1% of farmers reported having been stung, but only 0.6% required hospitalization. The most common reaction was itching. This pioneering study revealed that, although fire ants are present on many properties within the Atlantic Forest, the reported economic and health impacts are lower than expected, with most farmers experiencing minimal losses. Overall, the results for our sample suggest that the presence of fire ants does not result in significant economic losses for farmers. Nevertheless, fire ants are not overlooked, as non-conservationist control methods are employed. Such practices may lead to colony fragmentation, increasing their abundance and potentially negatively affecting local biodiversity. Full article

Shaded Arabica coffee production in agroforestry systems, as opposed to full-sun production, is a nature-based solution improving soil water balance, reducing heat exposure of coffee plants, and supporting sustainable forest management as opposed to deforestation. For this coffee production system in Mexico, which is dominated by smallholders as the largest group of coffee producers, we herein analyze current and estimate future yields. For the first time, to our best knowledge, this is done with a process-based coffee agroforestry model CAF2014 that we adapted for geo-spatial applications and named CAF2014-Rhaobi. Modeling of smallholders’ representative management is based on tree thinning, pruning frequency, and nitrogen supply through fertilizer and litter from nitrogen-fixing shade trees. Modeled historical yields generally agree with the reported numbers; however, there are discrepancies explained by modeling assumptions and simplifications. While shade trees help sustain coffee production, the projected drop in yields under present management is about 30% at the end of the century compared to the present as estimated using an ensemble of CMIP6 SSP5-8.5 climate projections. Economic analysis for three typologies of Mexican small coffee producers (conventional low, high-efficiency, and organic) reveals the major role of farmer associations and organic coffee price premiums in making production economically sustainable. This emphasizes the need for innovative marketing approaches and policies supporting farmers opting for certified production. Full article

Estimation of rice crop yield at the village level is essential because village is the Insurance Unit (IU) for rice crop in many regions in India, and timely and accurate yield information at this scale supports timely and transparent claim settlements for farmers and supports local agricultural planning. To achieve this, a multi-source satellite data-based machine learning approach was used to estimate rice yield at the village level using optical and SAR data, climatic data and land surface model-derived parameters in Kakinada of Andhra Pradesh, India. The predictor dataset included seasonal cumulative rainfall, seasonal Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)-Max, seasonal NDVI-Mean, seasonal Land Surface Water Index (LSWI)-Max, seasonal LSWI-Mean, season total Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (fAPAR) and season total Root Zone Soil Moisture (RZSM), and season total backscatter of the Sentinel-1 VH polarization were used to represent crop greenness, moisture status, photosynthetic activity, soil water availability, canopy structure, and seasonal water supply. For model development and validation, village-level rice yield data from 2017 to 2023 was used, which was collected through Crop Cutting Experiment (CCE) at the maturity stage of Kharif season. In this study, four machine learning models such as Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Regression (SVR), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and Gradient Boosting (GB) were evaluated. The multi-source satellite data and yield data for the period 2017–2021 were used to train the models, which were independently tested on 2022 data and then applied to predict the rice yield in 2023. Leave-One-Year-Out (LOYO) cross-validation was also conducted on the 2017–2022 data to assess temporal robustness and generalization capability across years. Among the evaluated models, Random Forest exhibited the best overall performance. For the independent test year 2022, RF achieved an R² of 0.465, RMSE of 415.34 kg ha⁻¹, MAE of 322.22 kg ha⁻¹, and MAPE of 10.36%. For the prediction year 2023, RF achieved improved accuracy with an R² of 0.838, RMSE of 325.75 kg ha⁻¹, MAE of 262.21 kg ha⁻¹, and MAPE of 7.68%. Further, LOYO cross-validation also showed the robustness of RF, achieving the highest mean R² of 0.702 and mean RMSE of 384.73 kg ha⁻¹. The results illustrate that multi-source satellite data combined with machine learning can be a reliable and operationally useful tool in predicting village-level rice yield, which can be used for crop insurance claim settlement. Full article

High-spatial-resolution soil data collected on behalf of the private sector (e.g., farmers) represents a largely untapped resource for EU soil monitoring initiatives. Georeferenced soil samples also raise privacy issues since sampling locations can be linked to individual farm parcels and their respective activities. This work presents a Privacy-Preserving Digital Soil Mapping Framework (PP-DSM) that enables integration of private georeferenced soil datasets while releasing only aggregated spatial outputs, minimising risks of individual farm identification. The framework consists of three components: a secure soil data processing environment that keeps private point data under institutional control, a Quantile Regression Forest (QRF) engine that produces spatially explicit predictions and uncertainty estimates, and spatial aggregation of raster outputs to the EU LUCAS 2 × 2 km monitoring grid, releasing only anonymised polygon-level statistics based on polygons centred on the grid points. This methodology is demonstrated using a case study of a published georeferenced soil dataset of organic carbon (403 topsoil samples) from the Kastoria region, Northern Greece. Aggregated predictions preserved regional soil patterns while eliminating farm-level identifiability. Across six independently validated LUCAS polygons, QRF polygon statistics differed from independent test set means by an average difference of 0.070% SOC, consistent with the expected spatial smoothing. This study suggests that privately held soil datasets can support EU monitoring infrastructures within the existing regulatory environment, contributing to Soil Monitoring Law objectives and Carbon Removals and Carbon Farming initiatives. Full article

Rice is one of the world’s most important food crops, feeding over half of the global population and being crucial for food security. Accurate, timely mapping of rice fields is essential for precision agriculture, yet conventional methods relying on static samples fail to capture dynamic farmers’ planting decisions. To address this, we propose the Multi-Source Dynamic Sample Generation and Phenology-Guided Feature Selection Framework for In-Season Rice Identification (MSDF-RiceID) using multi-source remote sensing imagery. It incorporates two key innovations: (i) a rule-based sample updating mechanism based on historical rice maps and a dynamic threshold algorithm, and (ii) phenology-guided feature optimization through exponential weighting. Developed specifically to handle complex cropping patterns and high cloud cover in Hunan Province, MSDF-RiceID integrates these innovations within a grid-search-optimized Random Forest classifier to produce reliable monthly rice distribution maps. In-season samples corresponding to transplanting dates in April (DOY 100, 120), June (DOY 160), and July (DOY 184), differentiated as early-, middle-, and late-rice crops. The optimal feature set combined Sentinel-1 (PRI, VH, VH_VV), Sentinel-2 (NDYI, PSRI, NDBI, NDWI), and MODIS (NDVI, EVI, NDBI, LSWI) indices. Accuracy increased seasonally, with F1-score rising from 0.82 in May to 0.97 at harvest. Cross-region validation in Taishan (Guangdong) and Panjin (Liaoning) showed that the earliest identifiable stage (F1-score > 0.9) occurred earlier than in Hunan due to Hunan’s more complex triple-cropping phenology, highlighting the model’s strong transferability. Furthermore, MSDF-RiceID outperformed existing products (TWDTW-Rice and EARice10), increasing overall accuracy by 0.12–0.18, Kappa by 0.23–0.35, and F1-score by 0.09–0.15. These results demonstrate its effectiveness for in-season, large-scale, and dynamic rice mapping under persistent cloud cover, thereby providing direct support for precision agricultural management in heterogeneous cropping systems. Full article

Climate change presents significant challenges to agriculture worldwide, leading to food insecurity and impacting rural livelihoods. Maize farming is especially vulnerable to extreme weather, such as heavy rainfall, high temperatures, soil acidity, humidity, and poor irrigation, which reduce crop yields and raise concerns about food security. The study aimed to develop a reliable and accurate machine learning method to predict maize crop yields using historical climate data to facilitate decision-making. This allows farmers and agronomists to forecast maize production based on past data for adaptation. A dataset from Meteo Rwanda and maize yield data from the Kayonza district, Rwanda, were used for training and testing. The weather data included annual mean temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, rainfall, and soil temperature over the past thirteen years. The data were analyzed using machine learning techniques such as Random Forest regressor, Extreme Boost regressor, Gradient, Support Vector Machine, and LASSO (Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator). The results show that developing a high-yield crop depends on predicting and integrating climate variables, especially temperature and rainfall. Overall, Random Forest, Support Vector Machine, and Extreme Boost outperformed LASSO, with R² values of 0.957, 0.955, and 0.953, compared to 0.256 for LASSO. Full article

To meet the requirements of precise temperature regulation in solar greenhouses, traditional machine learning algorithms often suffer from poor adaptability, high energy consumption, and difficulties in integrating agronomic expertise. This study developed an intelligent greenhouse temperature regulation framework based on Model Predictive Control (MPC). The core components of the framework include: (1) an expert-experience-based simulator using a Sparrow Search Algorithm-optimized Random Forest (SSA-RF) model to digitize the temperature management strategies of high-yield farmers into dynamic reference trajectories and (2) a hybrid prediction model (CNN-BiLSTM-Attention) combining Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise-Permutation Entropy (CEEMDAN-PE) denoising with a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM), and Attention mechanism to achieve high-precision multi-step temperature forecasting. Validation in a cucumber solar greenhouse demonstrated that the SSA-RF model achieved an R² of 0.976 on the test set, showing a significant improvement over the traditional RF model. Compared to the conventional LSTM model, the hybrid prediction model reduced the RMSE to 0.642 and 0.947 for 15 min and 30 min predictions, respectively, with a maximum R² of 0.994 and excellent generalization capabilities. Finally, these two components were theoretically integrated into an MPC-oriented decision framework. The framework describes how expert reference trajectories, multi-step predictions, actuator constraints, and control increments can be combined in a receding-horizon optimization problem. Since online actuator control data were not available, the MPC module was formulated as a theoretical decision framework rather than a fully validated closed-loop controller. This study provides a modelling basis and technical path for future real-time greenhouse temperature control. Full article

Reference evapotranspiration (ET₀) is most commonly estimated using the FAO-56 Penman–Monteith (PM) equation. However, its application is often limited by the lack of required meteorological parameters. Due to their flexibility, ability to operate with limited input, and high accuracy in estimating ET₀, machine learning models have become increasingly relevant in scientific research, offering a practical alternative under limited data conditions. In this study, artificial neural networks (ANNs) were applied to estimate daily ET₀ using meteorological data from the Novi Sad station in Vojvodina (Serbia). The dataset consisted of eight meteorological variables relevant to evapotranspiration processes. Analysis showed that some variables had a stronger influence on ET₀ prediction than others. To evaluate their combined effect, a series of ANN models with different input combinations were developed and tested. The random forests, gradient boosting and k-nearest neighbors models were used as a benchmark, and model performance was evaluated using R², NSE, RMSE, and MAE. The highest accuracy was achieved when all variables were included, providing the model with maximum information. The best performance was obtained using a two-hidden-layer architecture with 32 and 16 neurons, resulting in R² = 0.97, NSE = 97.07%, RMSE = 0.23 mm/day, and MAE = 0.21 mm/day. The results showed that a limited number of input variables can be used to estimate ET₀ with high accuracy, achieving an R² value of 0.95 using only three input variables. Therefore, the findings of this study may contribute to more accurate and cost-effective irrigation scheduling and water balance estimation, providing practical benefits for agricultural water management and farmers in Serbia. Full article