Search Results (860)

Forecasting the energy consumption of different consumers became an important procedure with the creation of the European Electricity Market. This study presents a methodology for 24-hour ahead prediction of the energy consumption, which is suitable for application in animal husbandry facilities, such as pig farms. To achieve this, 24 individual models are trained using artificial neural networks that forecast the energy production 1 to 24 h ahead. The selected features include power consumption over the last 72 h, time-based data, average, minimum, and maximum daily temperatures, relative humidities, and wind speeds. The models’ Normalized mean absolute error (NMAE), Normalized root mean square error (NRMSE), and Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) vary between 16.59% and 19.00%, 22.19% and 24.73%, and 9.49% and 11.49%, respectively. Furthermore, the case studies showed that in most situations, the forecasting error does not exceed 10% with several cases up to 25%. The proposed methodology can be useful for energy managers of animal farm facilities, and help them provide a better prognosis of their energy consumption for the Energy Market. The proposed methodology could be improved by selecting additional features, such as the variation of the controlled meteorological parameters over the last couple of days and the schedule of technological processes. Full article

Wind power output sequences exhibit strong randomness and intermittency characteristics; traditional single forecasting models struggle to capture the internal features of sequences and are highly susceptible to interference from high-frequency noise and predictive accuracy is still notably poor at the peaks where the power curve undergoes abrupt changes. To address the poor fitting at peaks, a short-term wind power forecasting method based on the improved Informer model is proposed. First, the temporal convolutional network (TCN) is introduced to enhance the model’s ability to capture regional segment features along the temporal dimension, enhancing the model’s receptive field to address wind power fluctuation under varying environmental conditions. Next, a discrete cosine transform (DCT) is employed for adaptive modeling of frequency dependencies between channels, converting the time series data into frequency domain representations to extract its frequency features. These frequency domain features are then weighted using a channel attention mechanism to improve the model’s ability to capture peak features and resist noise interference. Finally, the Informer generative decoder is used to output the power prediction results, this enables the model to simultaneously leverage neighboring temporal segment features and long-range inter-temporal dependencies for future wind-power prediction, thereby substantially improving the fitting accuracy at power-curve peaks. Experimental results validate the effectiveness and practicality of the proposed model; compared with other models, the proposed approach reduces MAE by 9.14–42.31% and RMSE by 12.57–47.59%. Full article

Simulations are conducted using a microscale model framework to quantify differences in projected Annual Energy Production (AEP), Capacity Factor (CF) and wake losses for large offshore wind farms that arise due to different input datasets, installed capacity density (ICD) and/or wake parameterizations. Differences in CF (and AEP) and wake losses that arise due to the selection of the wake parameterization have the same magnitude as varying the ICD within the likely range of 2–9 MW km⁻². CF simulated with most wake parameterizations have a near-linear relationship with ICD in this range, and the slope of the dependency on ICD is similar to that in mesoscale simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Microscale simulations show that remotely generated wakes can double AEP losses in individual lease areas (LA) within a large LA cluster. Finally, simulations with the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) model are shown to differ in terms of wake-induced AEP reduction from those with the WRF model by up to 5%, but this difference is smaller than differences in CF caused by the wind farm parameterization used in the mesoscale modeling. Enhanced evaluation of mesoscale and microscale wake parameterizations against observations of climatological representative AEP and time-varying power production from wind farm Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) data remains critical to improving the accuracy of predictive AEP modeling for large offshore wind farms. Full article

This study introduces an algorithm for quantifying oceanic wind speed and identifying sound sources in the local underwater soundscape. Utilizing low-complexity metrics like one-minute spectral kurtosis and power spectral density levels, the algorithm categorizes different soundscapes and estimates wind speed. It detects rain, vessels, fin and blue whales, as well as clicks and whistles from dolphins. Positioned as a foundational tool for implementing the Ocean Sound Essential Ocean Variable (EOV), it contributes to understanding long-term trends in climate change for sustainable ocean health and predicting threats through forecasts. The proposed soundscape classification algorithm, validated using extensive acoustic recordings (≥32 kHz) collected at various depths and latitudes, demonstrates high performance, achieving an average precision of $89\%$ and an average recall of $86.59\%$ through optimized parameter tuning via a genetic algorithm. Here, wind speed is determined using a cubic function with power spectral density (PSD) at 6 kHz and the MASLUW method, exhibiting strong agreement with satellite data below 15 m/s. Designed for compatibility with low-power electronics, the algorithm can be applied to both archival datasets and real-time data streams. It provides a straightforward metric for ocean monitoring and sound source identification. Full article

This review examines advancements and methodologies in long-term wind-speed and -power forecasting. It emphasizes the importance of these techniques in integrating wind energy into power systems. Covering a range of forecasting timeframes from monthly to multiyear projections, this paper highlights the diversity of applications and approaches. These applications and approaches are essential for managing the inherent variability and unpredictability of wind energy. Various forecasting methods, including statistical models, machine-learning techniques, and hybrid models, are discussed in detail. The review demonstrates how these methods improve forecast accuracy and reliability across different temporal and geographical scales. It also identifies significant challenges such as model complexity, data limitations, and the need to accommodate regional variations. Future improvements in wind forecasting include enhancing model integration, employing higher resolution data, and fostering collaborative research to further refine forecasting methodologies. This comprehensive analysis aims to advance knowledge on wind forecasting, facilitate the efficient integration of wind power into global energy systems, and contribute to sustainable energy development goals. Full article

With the growing global demand for clean energy, the accuracy of wind-power forecasting plays a vital role in ensuring the stable operation of power systems. However, wind-power generation is significantly influenced by meteorological conditions and is characterized by high uncertainty and multiscale fluctuations. Traditional recurrent neural network (RNN) and long short-term memory (LSTM) models, although capable of handling sequential data, struggle with modeling long-term temporal dependencies due to the vanishing gradient problem; thus, they are now rarely used. Recently, Transformer models have made notable progress in sequence modeling compared to RNNs and LSTM models. Nevertheless, when dealing with long wind-power sequences, their quadratic computational complexity (O(L²)) leads to low efficiency, and their global attention mechanism often fails to capture local periodic features accurately, tending to overemphasize redundant information while overlooking key temporal patterns. To address these challenges, this paper proposes a wind-power forecasting method based on dimension-transformed collaborative multidimensional multiscale attention (DTCMMA). This method first employs fast Fourier transform (FFT) to automatically identify the main periodic components in wind-power data, reconstructing the one-dimensional time series as a two-dimensional spatiotemporal representation, thereby explicitly encoding periodic features. Based on this, a collaborative multidimensional multiscale attention (CMMA) mechanism is designed, which hierarchically integrates channel, spatial, and pixel attention to adaptively capture complex spatiotemporal dependencies. Considering the geometric characteristics of the reconstructed data, asymmetric convolution kernels are adopted to enhance feature extraction efficiency. Experiments on multiple wind-farm datasets and energy-related datasets demonstrate that DTCMMA outperforms mainstream methods such as Transformer, iTransformer, and TimeMixer in long-sequence forecasting tasks, achieving improvements in MSE performance by 34.22%, 2.57%, and 0.51%, respectively. The model’s training speed also surpasses that of the fastest baseline by 300%, significantly improving both prediction accuracy and computational efficiency. This provides an efficient and accurate solution for wind-power forecasting and contributes to the further development and application of wind energy in the global energy mix. Full article

Accurate prediction of wind speed is critical for wind power generation and bias correction serves as an effective tool to enhance the precision of climate model forecasts. This study evaluates the effectiveness of three bias correction methods—Quantile Regression at the 50th percentile (QR50), Linear Regression (LR), and Optimal Threat Score (OTS)—for improving wind speed predictions at a height of 70 m from the NCEP CFSv2 model in Shanxi Province, China. Using observational data from nine wind towers (2021–2024) and corresponding model hindcasts, we analyze systematic biases across lead times of 1–45 days. Results reveal persistent model errors: overestimation of low wind speeds (<6 m/s) and underestimation of high wind speeds (>6 m/s), with the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) exceeding 1.5 m/s across all lead times. Among the correction methods, QR50 demonstrates the most robust performance, reducing the mean RMSE by 11% in October 2023 and 10% in February 2024. Correction efficacy improves significantly at longer lead times (>10 days) and under high RMSE conditions. These findings underscore the value of regression-based approaches in complex terrain while emphasizing the need for dynamic adjustments during extreme wind events. Full article

As the global energy system accelerates its transition toward a low-carbon economy, renewable energy sources (RESs), such as wind and photovoltaic power, are rapidly replacing traditional fossil fuels. These RESs are becoming a critical element of deeply decarbonized power systems (DDPSs). However, the inherent non-stationarity, multi-scale volatility, and uncontrollability of RES output significantly increase the risk of source–load imbalance, posing serious challenges to the reliability and economic efficiency of power systems. Scenario generation technology has emerged as a critical tool to quantify uncertainty and support dispatch optimization. Nevertheless, conventional scenario generation methods often fail to produce highly credible wind and solar output scenarios. To address this gap, this paper proposes a novel renewable energy scenario generation method based on a multi-resolution diffusion model. To accurately capture fluctuation characteristics across multiple time scales, we introduce a diffusion model in conjunction with a multi-scale time series decomposition approach, forming a multi-stage diffusion modeling framework capable of representing both long-term trends and short-term fluctuations in RES output. A cascaded conditional diffusion modeling framework is designed, leveraging historical trend information as a conditioning input to enhance the physical consistency of generated scenarios. Furthermore, a forecast-guided fusion strategy is proposed to jointly model long-term and short-term dynamics, thereby improving the generalization capability of long-term scenario generation. Simulation results demonstrate that MDDPM achieves a Wasserstein Distance (WD) of 0.0156 in the wind power scenario, outperforming DDPM (WD = 0.0185) and MC (WD = 0.0305). Additionally, MDDPM improves the Global Coverage Rate (GCR) by 15% compared to MC and other baselines. Full article

With a potentially increasing share of the electricity grid relying on wind to provide generating capacity and energy, there is an expanding global need for historically accurate, spatiotemporally continuous, high-resolution wind data. Conventional downscaling methods for generating these data based on numerical weather prediction have a high computational burden and require extensive tuning for historical accuracy. In this work, we present a novel deep learning-based spatiotemporal downscaling method using generative adversarial networks (GANs) for generating historically accurate high-resolution wind resource data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting Reanalysis version 5 data (ERA5). In contrast to previous approaches, which used coarsened high-resolution data as low-resolution training data, we use true low-resolution simulation outputs. We show that by training a GAN model with ERA5 as the low-resolution input and Wind Integration National Dataset Toolkit (WTK) data as the high-resolution target, we achieved results comparable in historical accuracy and spatiotemporal variability to conventional dynamical downscaling. This GAN-based downscaling method additionally reduces computational costs over dynamical downscaling by two orders of magnitude. We applied this approach to downscale 30 km, hourly ERA5 data to 2 km, 5 min wind data for January 2000 through December 2023 at multiple hub heights over Ukraine, Moldova, and part of Romania. With WTK coverage limited to North America from 2007–2013, this is a significant spatiotemporal generalization. The geographic extent centered on Ukraine was motivated by stakeholders and energy-planning needs to rebuild the Ukrainian power grid in a decentralized manner. This 24-year data record is the first member of the super-resolution for renewable energy resource data with wind from the reanalysis data dataset (Sup3rWind). Full article

Driven by dual carbon targets, the scale of wind power integration has surged dramatically. However, its strong volatility causes insufficient short-term prediction accuracy, severely constraining grid security and economic dispatch. To address three key challenges in extracting temporal characteristics of strong volatility, adaptive fusion of multi-source features, and enhancing model interpretability, this paper proposes a Time-Domain Dual-Channel Adaptive Learning Model (TDDCALM). The model employs dual-channel feature decoupling: one Transformer encoder layer captures global dependencies while the raw state layer preserves local temporal features. After TCN-based feature compression, an adaptive weighted early fusion mechanism dynamically optimizes channel weights. The ACON adaptive activation function autonomously learns optimal activation patterns, with fused features visualized through visualization techniques. Validation on two wind farm datasets (A/B) demonstrates that the proposed method reduces RMSE by at least 8.89% compared to the best deep learning baseline, exhibits low sensitivity to time window sizes, and establishes a novel paradigm for forecasting highly volatile renewable energy power. Full article

It is difficult for a single feature in wind power data to fully reflect the multifactor coupling relationship with wind power, while the forecast model hyperparameters rely on empirical settings, which affects the prediction accuracy. In order to effectively predict the continuous power in the future time period, an ultra-short-term prediction model of wind power based on fused features and an improved convolutional neural network (CNN) is proposed. Firstly, the historical power data are decomposed using dynamic modal decomposition (DMD) to extract their modal features. Then, considering the influence of meteorological factors on power prediction, the historical meteorological data in the sample data are extracted using kernel principal component analysis (KPCA). Finally, the decomposed power modal and the extracted meteorological components are reconstructed into multivariate time-series features; the snow ablation optimisation algorithm (SAO) is used to optimise the convolutional neural network (CNN) for wind power prediction. The results show that the root-mean-square error of the prediction result is 31.9% lower than that of the undecomposed one after using DMD decomposition; for the prediction of the power of two different wind farms, the root-mean-square error of the improved CNN model is reduced by 39.8% and 30.6%, respectively, compared with that of the original model, which shows that the proposed model has a better prediction performance. Full article

This study introduces a predictive model for estimating indoor room temperatures in vernacular building using external environmental factors such as air temperature, humidity, sunshine duration, and wind speed. The dataset was sourced from the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency and supplemented with direct measurements collected from four rooms within a vernacular building in Aceh Province, Indonesia. A Generative Adversarial Network (GAN)-based imputation technique was implemented to address missing data during preprocessing. The prediction model adopts a hybrid framework that integrates Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), with both models optimized using Support Vector Regression (SVR) to better capture the nonlinear dynamics between inputs and outputs. The evaluation results show that the ANN-SVR model achieved the lowest average $\overline{MAE}$ and $\overline{RMSE}$ values, at 0.164 and 0.218, respectively, and the highest average $\overline{R}$ and $\overline{R^2}$ values, at 0.785 and 0.618. Evaluation results indicate that the ANN-SVR model consistently achieved the lowest error rates and the highest correlation coefficients across all four rooms, identifying it as the most effective model for forecasting indoor thermal conditions. These results validate the combined use of ANN-SVR for prediction and GAN for preprocessing as a powerful strategy to enhance data quality and model performance. The findings offer a scientific basis for architectural planning to improve thermal comfort in vernacular buildings such as the Rumoh Aceh. Full article

Canopy temperature is an important indicator of plants’ water status. The so-called PeriodiCT model was developed to forecast canopy temperature using ambient weather variables, providing a powerful tool for planning crop irrigation scheduling. As this model requires observed data in its parameter training before implementing the forecast, it is important to understand the data requirements in the model training such that accurate forecasts are attained. In this work, we conduct a comprehensive assessment of the PeriodiCT model in terms of sample size requirement and predictabilities across sensors in a field and across seasons for the full model and sub-models. The results show that (1) 5 days’ observations are sufficient for the full model and sub-models to achieve very high predictability, with a minimum coefficient of efficiency of 0.844 for the full model and 0.840 for the sub-model using only air temperature. The predictability decreases in the following order: full model, sub-model without radiation S, with air temperature Ta and vapor pressure VP, and with only Ta. The predictions perform reasonably well even when only one day’s observations are used. (2) The predictability into the future is very stable as the prediction steps increase. (3) The predictabilities of the full and sub-models when using a trained model from one sensor for another sensor perform comparatively well, with a minimum coefficient of efficiency of 0.719 for the full model and 0.635 for the sub-model using only air temperature. (4) The predictabilities of the sub-models without solar radiation when using trained models from one season for another season perform comparatively well, with a minimum coefficient of efficiency of 0.866 for the full model and 0.764 for the sub-model using only air temperature, although the cross-season performances are not as good as the cross-sensor performances. The importance of the predictors is in the order of air temperature, vapor pressure, wind speed, and solar radiation, while vapor pressure and wind speed have similar contributions, and solar radiation has only a marginal contribution. Full article

To enhance the accuracy of short-term wind power forecasting, this study proposes a hybrid model combining Northern Goshawk Optimization (NGO)-optimized Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) and an Improved Snow Ablation Optimizer (ISAO)-optimized Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network. Initially, NGO is applied to determine the optimal parameters for VMD, decomposing the original wind power series into multiple frequency-based subsequences. Subsequently, ISAO is employed to fine-tune the hyperparameters of the LSTM, resulting in an ISAO-LSTM prediction model. The final forecast is obtained by reconstructing the subsequences through superposition. Experiments conducted on real data from a wind farm in Ningxia, China demonstrate that the proposed approach significantly outperforms traditional single and combined models, yielding predictions that closely align with actual measurements. This validates the method’s effectiveness for short-term wind power prediction and offers valuable data support for optimizing microgrid scheduling and capacity planning in wind-integrated energy systems. Full article

This study investigates high-resolution numerical weather modelling and large eddy simulations (LESs) for wind resource assessment in complex coastal mountainous terrain. The main purpose is to investigate strong-wind events, where earlier research indicates that high wind speeds are underestimated. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), simulations were conducted for the Fakken wind power plant in northern Norway, a region characterised by steep mountains, fjords, and challenging wind patterns. The study evaluates the impact of increasing model resolution, from mesoscale to LESs, on wind speed and power production estimates. Results show that higher-resolution models improve the representation of terrain features, leading to better estimations of wind speed and direction, particularly during strong-wind events such as the Ylva storm in 2017. The LES model demonstrated the ability to capture high-wind events, including localised speed-ups and lee-side amplification, which is critical for accurate wind speed modelling. Comparison with power production data shows the potential of WRF LESs to optimise wind farm operations in complex terrains. Full article