Ultra-Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Based on Fused Features and an Improved CNN

It is difficult for a single feature in wind power data to fully reflect the multifactor coupling relationship with wind power, while the forecast model hyperparameters rely on empirical settings, which affects the prediction accuracy. In order to effectively predict the continuous power in the future time period, an ultra-short-term prediction model of wind power based on fused features and an improved convolutional neural network (CNN) is proposed. Firstly, the historical power data are decomposed using dynamic modal decomposition (DMD) to extract their modal features. Then, considering the influence of meteorological factors on power prediction, the historical meteorological data in the sample data are extracted using kernel principal component analysis (KPCA). Finally, the decomposed power modal and the extracted meteorological components are reconstructed into multivariate time-series features; the snow ablation optimisation algorithm (SAO) is used to optimise the convolutional neural network (CNN) for wind power prediction. The results show that the root-mean-square error of the prediction result is 31.9% lower than that of the undecomposed one after using DMD decomposition; for the prediction of the power of two different wind farms, the root-mean-square error of the improved CNN model is reduced by 39.8% and 30.6%, respectively, compared with that of the original model, which shows that the proposed model has a better prediction performance.