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32 pages, 5466 KiB  
Article
Comprehensive Energy and Economic Analysis of Selected Variants of a Large-Scale Photovoltaic Power Plant in a Temperate Climate
by Dennis Thom, Artur Bugała, Dorota Bugała and Wojciech Czekała
Energies 2025, 18(15), 4198; https://doi.org/10.3390/en18154198 - 7 Aug 2025
Abstract
In recent years, solar energy has emerged as one of the most advanced renewable energy sources, with its production capacity steadily growing. To maximize output and efficiency, choosing the right configuration for a specific location for these installations is crucial. This study uniquely [...] Read more.
In recent years, solar energy has emerged as one of the most advanced renewable energy sources, with its production capacity steadily growing. To maximize output and efficiency, choosing the right configuration for a specific location for these installations is crucial. This study uniquely integrates detailed multi-variant fixed-tilt PV system simulations with comprehensive economic evaluation under temperate climate conditions, addressing site-specific spatial constraints and grid integration considerations that have rarely been combined in previous works. In this paper, an energy and economic efficiency analysis for a photovoltaic power plant, located in central Poland, designed in eight variants (10°, 15°, 20°, 25°, 30° PV module inclination angle for a south orientation and 10°, 20°, 30° for an east–west orientation) for a limited building area of approximately 300,000 m2 was conducted. In PVSyst computer simulations, PVGIS-SARAH2 solar radiation data were used together with the most common data for describing the Polish local solar climate, called Typical Meteorological Year data (TMY). The most energy-efficient variants were found to be 20° S and 30° S, configurations with the highest surface production coefficient (249.49 and 272.68 kWh/m2) and unit production efficiency values (1123 and 1132 kWh/kW, respectively). These findings highlight potential efficiency gains of up to approximately 9% in surface production coefficient and financial returns exceeding 450% ROI, demonstrating significant economic benefits. In economic terms, the 15° S variant achieved the highest values of financial parameters, such as the return on investment (ROI) (453.2%), the value of the average annual share of profits in total revenues (56.93%), the shortest expected payback period (8.7 years), the value of the levelized cost of energy production (LCOE) (0.1 EUR/kWh), and one of the lowest costs of building 1 MWp of a photovoltaic farm (664,272.7 EUR/MWp). Among the tested variants of photovoltaic farms with an east–west geographical orientation, the most advantageous choice is the 10° EW arrangement. The results provide valuable insights for policymakers and investors aiming to optimize photovoltaic deployment in temperate climates, supporting the broader transition to renewable energy and alignment with national energy policy goals. Full article
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24 pages, 759 KiB  
Article
The Mediating Role of the Firm Image in the Relationship Between Integrated Reporting and Firm Value in GCC Countries
by Mohammed Saleem Alatawi, Zaidi Mat Daud and Jalila Johari
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2025, 18(8), 438; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm18080438 - 6 Aug 2025
Abstract
In the context of the GCC, the adoption of integrated reporting (IR) remains limited, due in part to weak regulatory enforcement, a lack of awareness of the strategic benefits of IR, and a strong focus on short-term financial results. This limited reporting context [...] Read more.
In the context of the GCC, the adoption of integrated reporting (IR) remains limited, due in part to weak regulatory enforcement, a lack of awareness of the strategic benefits of IR, and a strong focus on short-term financial results. This limited reporting context presents a significant challenge for firms to credibly demonstrate their value to the market and attract potential investors, thus communicating long-term value. Given these limitations, this study considers how IR contributes to firm value, but also examines the mediating role that firm image (FI) plays in this relationship as a reputational construct representing stakeholder perspectives of a firm’s transparency and accountability. The research employs a quantitative methodology, analysing secondary data from corporate governance and integrated reports spanning 2017–2018 to 2022–2023. Findings indicate a positive and robust relationship between integrated reporting and the firm’s value, which was assessed using Tobin’s Q. The findings highlight the significant mediating role of firm image, illustrating how IR practices, via increased transparency, accountability, and sustainability, enhance firm value. This study provides significant insights for researchers, policymakers, and corporate managers, highlighting the strategic relevance of IR in the GCC region. The findings demonstrate that integrated reporting improves transparency, accountability, and sustainability, thereby assisting corporate managers in utilising IR to enhance firm image and facilitate value creation. Policymakers can utilise these insights to develop regulatory frameworks that promote integrated reporting practices, thereby enhancing transparency and sustainable growth within the corporate sector. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Emerging Trends and Innovations in Corporate Finance and Governance)
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30 pages, 20256 KiB  
Article
From Fields to Finance: Dynamic Connectedness and Optimal Portfolio Strategies Among Agricultural Commodities, Oil, and Stock Markets
by Xuan Tu and David Leatham
Int. J. Financial Stud. 2025, 13(3), 143; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs13030143 - 6 Aug 2025
Abstract
In this study, we investigate the return propagation mechanism, hedging effectiveness, and portfolio performance across several common agricultural commodities, crude oil, and S&P 500 index, ranging from July 2000 to June 2024 by using a time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) connectedness approach and [...] Read more.
In this study, we investigate the return propagation mechanism, hedging effectiveness, and portfolio performance across several common agricultural commodities, crude oil, and S&P 500 index, ranging from July 2000 to June 2024 by using a time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) connectedness approach and three common multiple assets portfolio optimization strategies. The empirical results show that, the total connectedness peaked during the 2008 global financial crisis, followed by the European debt crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, while it remained relatively lower at the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. In the transmission mechanism, commodities and S&P 500 index exhibit distinct and dynamic characteristics as transmitters or receivers. Portfolio analysis reveals that, with exception of the COVID-19 pandemic, all three dynamic portfolios outperform the S&P 500 benchmark across major global crises. Additionally, the minimum correlation and minimum connectedness strategies are superior than transitional minimum variance method in most scenarios. Our findings have implications for policymakers in preventing systemic risk, for investors in managing portfolio risk, and for farmers and agribusiness enterprises in enhancing economic benefits. Full article
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12 pages, 1125 KiB  
Article
Algorithmic Trading System with Adaptive State Model of a Binary-Temporal Representation
by Michal Dominik Stasiak
Risks 2025, 13(8), 148; https://doi.org/10.3390/risks13080148 - 4 Aug 2025
Viewed by 80
Abstract
In this paper a new state model is introduced, an adaptative state model in a binary temporal representation (ASMBRT) as well as its application in constructing an algorithmic trading system. The presented model uses the binary temporal representation, which allows for a precise [...] Read more.
In this paper a new state model is introduced, an adaptative state model in a binary temporal representation (ASMBRT) as well as its application in constructing an algorithmic trading system. The presented model uses the binary temporal representation, which allows for a precise analysis of exchange rates without losing any informative value of the data. The basis of the model is the trajectory analysis for the ensuing changes in price quotations and dependencies between the duration of each change. The main advantage of the model is to eliminate the threshold analysis, used in existing state models. This solution allows for a more accurate identification of investor behavior patterns, which translates into a reduction of investment risk. In order to verify obtained results in practice, the paper presents a concept of creating an algorithmic trading system and an analysis of its financial effectiveness for the exchange rate most popular among investors, namely EUR/USD. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Advances in Risk Models and Actuarial Science)
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17 pages, 1708 KiB  
Article
Research on Financial Stock Market Prediction Based on the Hidden Quantum Markov Model
by Xingyao Song, Wenyu Chen and Junyi Lu
Mathematics 2025, 13(15), 2505; https://doi.org/10.3390/math13152505 - 4 Aug 2025
Viewed by 207
Abstract
Quantum finance, as a key application scenario of quantum computing, showcases multiple significant advantages of quantum machine learning over traditional machine learning methods. This paper first aims to overcome the limitations of the hidden quantum Markov model (HQMM) in handling continuous data and [...] Read more.
Quantum finance, as a key application scenario of quantum computing, showcases multiple significant advantages of quantum machine learning over traditional machine learning methods. This paper first aims to overcome the limitations of the hidden quantum Markov model (HQMM) in handling continuous data and proposes an innovative method to convert continuous data into discrete-time sequence data. Second, a hybrid quantum computing model is developed to forecast stock market trends. The model was used to predict 15 stock indices from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges between June 2018 and June 2021. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed quantum model outperforms classical algorithmic models in handling higher complexity, achieving improved efficiency, reduced computation time, and superior predictive performance. This validation of quantum advantage in financial forecasting enables the practical deployment of quantum-inspired prediction models by investors and institutions in trading environments. This quantum-enhanced model empowers investors to predict market regimes (bullish/bearish/range-bound) using real-time data, enabling dynamic portfolio adjustments, optimized risk controls, and data-driven allocation shifts. Full article
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22 pages, 405 KiB  
Article
The Impact of ESG Performance on Corporate Investment Efficiency: Evidence from Chinese Listed Companies
by Zhuo Li, Yeteng Ma, Li He and Zhili Tan
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2025, 18(8), 427; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm18080427 - 1 Aug 2025
Viewed by 304
Abstract
Recent theoretical and empirical studies highlight that information asymmetry and owner–manager conflict of interest can distort corporate investment decisions. Building on this premise, we hypothesize that superior environmental, social, and governance (ESG) performance mitigates these frictions by (H1) alleviating financing constraints and (H2) [...] Read more.
Recent theoretical and empirical studies highlight that information asymmetry and owner–manager conflict of interest can distort corporate investment decisions. Building on this premise, we hypothesize that superior environmental, social, and governance (ESG) performance mitigates these frictions by (H1) alleviating financing constraints and (H2) intensifying external analyst scrutiny. To test these hypotheses, we examine all Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share non-financial firms from 2009 to 2023. Using panel fixed-effects and two-stage least squares with an industry–province–year instrument, we find that higher ESG performance significantly reduces investment inefficiency; the effect operates through both lower financing constraints and greater analyst coverage. Heterogeneity analyses reveal that the improvement is pronounced in small non-state-owned, non-high-carbon firms but absent in large state-owned high-carbon emitters. These findings enrich the literature on ESG and corporate performance and offer actionable insights for regulators and investors seeking high-quality development. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Business and Entrepreneurship)
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22 pages, 760 KiB  
Review
Strengthening Corporate Governance and Financial Reporting Through Regulatory Reform: A Comparative Analysis of Greek Laws 3016/2002 and 4706/2020
by Savvina Paganou, Ioannis Antoniadis, Panagiota Xanthopoulou and Vasilios Kanavas
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2025, 18(8), 426; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm18080426 - 1 Aug 2025
Viewed by 665
Abstract
This study explores how corporate governance reforms can enhance financial reporting quality and organizational transparency, focusing on Greece’s transition from Law 3016/2002 to Law 4706/2020. The legislative reform aimed to modernize governance structures, align national practices with international standards, and strengthen investor protection [...] Read more.
This study explores how corporate governance reforms can enhance financial reporting quality and organizational transparency, focusing on Greece’s transition from Law 3016/2002 to Law 4706/2020. The legislative reform aimed to modernize governance structures, align national practices with international standards, and strengthen investor protection in a post-crisis economic environment. Moving beyond a simple legal comparison, the study examines how Law 3016/2002’s formal compliance model contrasts with Law 4706/2020’s more substantive accountability framework. We hypothesize that Law 4706/2020 introduces substantively stronger governance mechanisms than its predecessor, thereby improving transparency and investor protection, while compliance with the new law imposes materially greater administrative and financial burdens, especially on small- and mid-cap firms. Methodologically, the research employs a narrative literature review and a structured comparative legal analysis to assess the administrative and financial implications of the new law for publicly listed companies, focusing on board composition and diversity, internal controls, suitability policies, and disclosure requirements. Drawing on prior comparative evidence, we posit that Law 4706/2020 will foster governance and disclosure improvements, enhanced oversight, and clearer board roles. However, these measures also impose compliance burdens. Due to the heterogeneity of listed companies and the lack of firm-level data following Law 4706/2020’s implementation, the findings are neither fully generalizable nor quantifiable; future quantitative research using event studies or panel data is required to validate the hypotheses. We conclude that Greece’s new framework is a critical step toward sustainable corporate governance and more transparent financial reporting, offering regulators, practitioners, and scholars examining legal reform’s impact on governance effectiveness and financial reporting integrity. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Research on Corporate Governance and Financial Reporting)
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20 pages, 413 KiB  
Article
Spectral Graph Compression in Deploying Recommender Algorithms on Quantum Simulators
by Chenxi Liu, W. Bernard Lee and Anthony G. Constantinides
Computers 2025, 14(8), 310; https://doi.org/10.3390/computers14080310 - 1 Aug 2025
Viewed by 196
Abstract
This follow-up scientific case study builds on prior research to explore the computational challenges of applying quantum algorithms to financial asset management, focusing specifically on solving the graph-cut problem for investment recommendation. Unlike our prior study, which focused on idealized QAOA performance, this [...] Read more.
This follow-up scientific case study builds on prior research to explore the computational challenges of applying quantum algorithms to financial asset management, focusing specifically on solving the graph-cut problem for investment recommendation. Unlike our prior study, which focused on idealized QAOA performance, this work introduces a graph compression pipeline that enables QAOA deployment under real quantum hardware constraints. This study investigates quantum-accelerated spectral graph compression for financial asset recommendations, addressing scalability and regulatory constraints in portfolio management. We propose a hybrid framework combining the Quantum Approximate Optimization Algorithm (QAOA) with spectral graph theory to solve the Max-Cut problem for investor clustering. Our methodology leverages quantum simulators (cuQuantum and Cirq-GPU) to evaluate performance against classical brute-force enumeration, with graph compression techniques enabling deployment on resource-constrained quantum hardware. The results underscore that efficient graph compression is crucial for successful implementation. The framework bridges theoretical quantum advantage with practical financial use cases, though hardware limitations (qubit counts, coherence times) necessitate hybrid quantum-classical implementations. These findings advance the deployment of quantum algorithms in mission-critical financial systems, particularly for high-dimensional investor profiling under regulatory constraints. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section AI-Driven Innovations)
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16 pages, 263 KiB  
Article
Hospitality in Crisis: Evaluating the Downside Risks and Market Sensitivity of Hospitality REITs
by Davinder Malhotra and Raymond Poteau
Int. J. Financial Stud. 2025, 13(3), 140; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs13030140 - 1 Aug 2025
Viewed by 223
Abstract
This study evaluates the risk-adjusted performance of Hospitality REITs using multi-factor asset pricing models and downside risk measures with the aim of assessing their diversification potential and crisis sensitivity. Unlike prior studies that examine REITs in aggregate, this study isolates Hospitality REITs to [...] Read more.
This study evaluates the risk-adjusted performance of Hospitality REITs using multi-factor asset pricing models and downside risk measures with the aim of assessing their diversification potential and crisis sensitivity. Unlike prior studies that examine REITs in aggregate, this study isolates Hospitality REITs to explore their unique cyclical and macroeconomic sensitivities. This study looks at the risk-adjusted performance of Hospitality Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) in relation to more general REIT indexes and the S&P 500 Index. The study reveals that monthly returns of Hospitality REITs increasingly move in tandem with the stock markets during financial crises, which reduces their historical function as portfolio diversifiers. Investing in Hospitality REITs exposes one to the hospitality sector; however, these investments carry notable risks and provide little protection, particularly during economic upheavals. Furthermore, the study reveals that Hospitality REITs underperform on a risk-adjusted basis relative to benchmark indexes. The monthly returns of REITs show significant volatility during the post-COVID-19 era, which causes return-to-risk ratios to be below those of benchmark indexes. Estimates from multi-factor models indicate negative alpha values across conditional models, indicating that macroeconomic variables cause unremunerated risks. This industry shows great sensitivity to market beta and size and value determinants. Hospitality REITs’ susceptibility comes from their showing the most possibility for exceptional losses across asset classes under Value at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value at Risk (CvaR) downside risk assessments. The findings have implications for investors and portfolio managers, suggesting that Hospitality REITs may not offer consistent diversification benefits during downturns but can serve a tactical role in procyclical investment strategies. Full article
27 pages, 406 KiB  
Article
Value Creation Through Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) Disclosures
by Amina Hamdouni
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2025, 18(8), 415; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm18080415 - 27 Jul 2025
Viewed by 655
Abstract
This study investigates the impact of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) disclosure on value creation in a balanced panel of 100 non-financial Sharia-compliant firms listed on the Saudi Stock Exchange over the period 2014–2023. The analysis employs a combination of econometric techniques, including [...] Read more.
This study investigates the impact of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) disclosure on value creation in a balanced panel of 100 non-financial Sharia-compliant firms listed on the Saudi Stock Exchange over the period 2014–2023. The analysis employs a combination of econometric techniques, including fixed effects models with Driscoll–Kraay standard errors, Pooled Ordinary Least Squares (POLS) with Driscoll–Kraay standard errors and industry and year dummies, and two-step system generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation to address potential endogeneity and omitted variable bias. Value creation is measured using Tobin’s Q (TBQ), Return on Assets (ROA), and Return on Equity (ROE). The models also control for firm-specific variables such as firm size, leverage, asset tangibility, firm age, growth opportunities, and market capitalization. The findings reveal that ESG disclosure has a positive and statistically significant effect on firm value across all three performance measures. Furthermore, firm size significantly moderates this relationship, with larger Sharia-compliant firms experiencing greater value gains from ESG practices. These results align with agency, stakeholder, and signaling theories, emphasizing the role of ESG in enhancing transparency, reducing information asymmetry, and strengthening stakeholder trust. The study provides empirical evidence relevant to policymakers, investors, and firms striving to achieve Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 sustainability goals. Full article
18 pages, 614 KiB  
Article
ESG Integration in Saudi Insurance: Financial Performance, Regulatory Reform, and Stakeholder Insights
by Ines Belgacem
Sustainability 2025, 17(15), 6821; https://doi.org/10.3390/su17156821 - 27 Jul 2025
Viewed by 392
Abstract
As sustainability becomes a strategic priority across global financial services, its implementation in emerging insurance markets remains insufficiently understood. This study explores the integration of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) principles within Saudi Arabia’s insurance sector, combining content analysis of corporate disclosures with [...] Read more.
As sustainability becomes a strategic priority across global financial services, its implementation in emerging insurance markets remains insufficiently understood. This study explores the integration of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) principles within Saudi Arabia’s insurance sector, combining content analysis of corporate disclosures with qualitative insights from industry stakeholders. The research investigates how insurers embed ESG principles into their operations, the development of sustainable insurance products, and their perceived financial and regulatory implications. The findings reveal gradual progress in ESG integration, primarily driven by governance reforms aligned with national development agendas, while social and environmental dimensions remain comparatively underdeveloped. Stakeholders identify regulatory ambiguity, data limitations, and technical capacity as persistent barriers, but also point to increasing investor and consumer interest in sustainability-aligned offerings. This study offers policy and managerial recommendations to advance ESG principle adoption, emphasizing standardized disclosures, capacity-building, and product innovation. It contributes to the limited empirical literature on ESG principles in Middle Eastern insurance markets and highlights the sector’s potential role in promoting inclusive and sustainable finance. Full article
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21 pages, 2763 KiB  
Article
Predicting Environmental Social and Governance Scores: Applying Machine Learning Models to French Companies
by Sina Belkhiria, Azhaar Lajmi and Siwar Sayed
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2025, 18(8), 413; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm18080413 - 26 Jul 2025
Viewed by 379
Abstract
The main objective of this study is to analyse the relevance of financial performance as an accurate predictor of ESG scores for French companies from 2010 to 2022. To this end, Machine Learning techniques such as linear regression, polynomial regression, Random Forest, and [...] Read more.
The main objective of this study is to analyse the relevance of financial performance as an accurate predictor of ESG scores for French companies from 2010 to 2022. To this end, Machine Learning techniques such as linear regression, polynomial regression, Random Forest, and Support Vector Regression (SVR) were employed to provide more accurate and reliable assessments, thus informing the ESG rating attribution process. The results obtained highlight the excellent performance of the Random Forest method in predicting ESG scores from company financial variables. In addition, the approach identified specific financial variables (operating income, market capitalisation, enterprise value, etc.) that act as powerful predictors of companies’ ESG scores. This modelling approach offers a robust tool for predicting companies’ ESG scores from financial data, which can be valuable for investors and decision-makers wishing to assess and understand the impact of financial variables on corporate sustainability. Also, this allows sustainability investors to diversify their portfolios by including companies that are not currently rated by ESG rating agencies, that do not produce sustainability reports, as well as newly listed companies. It also gives companies the opportunity to identify areas where improvements are needed to enhance their ESG performance. Finally, it facilitates access to ESG ratings for interested external stakeholders. Our study focuses on using advances in artificial intelligence, exploring machine learning techniques to develop a reliable predictive model of ESG scores, which is proving to be an original and promising area of research. Full article
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29 pages, 1682 KiB  
Article
Polish Farmers′ Perceptions of the Benefits and Risks of Investing in Biogas Plants and the Role of GISs in Site Selection
by Anna Kochanek, Józef Ciuła, Mariusz Cembruch-Nowakowski and Tomasz Zacłona
Energies 2025, 18(15), 3981; https://doi.org/10.3390/en18153981 - 25 Jul 2025
Viewed by 269
Abstract
In the past decade, agricultural biogas plants have become one of the key tools driving the energy transition in rural areas. Nevertheless, their development in Poland still lags behind that in Western European countries, suggesting the existence of barriers that go beyond technological [...] Read more.
In the past decade, agricultural biogas plants have become one of the key tools driving the energy transition in rural areas. Nevertheless, their development in Poland still lags behind that in Western European countries, suggesting the existence of barriers that go beyond technological or regulatory issues. This study aims to examine how Polish farmers perceive the risks and expected benefits associated with investing in biogas plants and which of these perceptions influence their willingness to invest. The research was conducted in the second quarter of 2025 among farmers planning to build micro biogas plants as well as owners of existing biogas facilities. Geographic Information System (GIS) tools were also used in selecting respondents and identifying potential investment sites, helping to pinpoint areas with favorable spatial and environmental conditions. The findings show that both current and prospective biogas plant operators view complex legal requirements, social risk, and financial uncertainty as the main obstacles. However, both groups are primarily motivated by the desire for on-farm energy self-sufficiency and the environmental benefits of improved agricultural waste management. Owners of operational installations—particularly small and medium-sized ones—tend to rate all categories of risk significantly lower than prospective investors, suggesting that practical experience and knowledge-sharing can effectively alleviate perceived risks related to renewable energy investments. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Green Additive for Biofuel Energy Production)
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36 pages, 1566 KiB  
Article
The Impact of Geopolitical Risk on the Connectedness Dynamics Among Sovereign Bonds
by Mustafa Almabrouk Abdalla Alfughi and Asil Azimli
Mathematics 2025, 13(15), 2379; https://doi.org/10.3390/math13152379 - 24 Jul 2025
Viewed by 418
Abstract
This study examines the impact of geopolitical risk (GPR) on the connectedness dynamics among the sovereign bonds of the emerging seven (E7) and the Group of Seven (G7) countries. Initially, a quantile-based vector-autoregressive (Q-VAR) connectedness approach is used to calculate the total connectedness [...] Read more.
This study examines the impact of geopolitical risk (GPR) on the connectedness dynamics among the sovereign bonds of the emerging seven (E7) and the Group of Seven (G7) countries. Initially, a quantile-based vector-autoregressive (Q-VAR) connectedness approach is used to calculate the total connectedness index (TCI) among sovereign bonds under different market states. Then, the impact of GPR on the TCI at the median and tails is estimated to examine if GPR affects the TCI among sovereign bonds. Using daily yields from 30 January 2012, to 17 June 2024, the findings show that the GPR is one of the significant determinants of the TCI among sovereign bonds during normal and extreme market conditions. Other determinants of the TCI include yields on Treasury bills (T-bills), the exchange rate, and the financial market volatility index. The impact of GPR on the TCI varies significantly during different GPR episodes and bond market conditions. The effect of GPR on the TCI among sovereign bonds yields is higher during war times and when bond yields are average. These findings can be utilized by investors seeking to achieve international diversification and policymakers aiming to mitigate the effects of heightened geopolitical risk on financial stability. Furthermore, GPR can be used as an early signal tool for systematic tail risk spillovers among sovereign bonds. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Modeling Multivariate Financial Time Series and Computing)
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14 pages, 379 KiB  
Article
Overconfidence and Investment Loss Tolerance: A Large-Scale Survey Analysis of Japanese Investors
by Honoka Nabeshima, Mostafa Saidur Rahim Khan and Yoshihiko Kadoya
Risks 2025, 13(8), 142; https://doi.org/10.3390/risks13080142 - 23 Jul 2025
Viewed by 439
Abstract
Accepting a certain degree of investment loss risk is essential for long-term portfolio management. However, overconfidence bias within financial literacy can prompt excessively risky behavior and amplify susceptibility to other cognitive biases. These tendencies can undermine investment loss tolerance beyond the baseline level [...] Read more.
Accepting a certain degree of investment loss risk is essential for long-term portfolio management. However, overconfidence bias within financial literacy can prompt excessively risky behavior and amplify susceptibility to other cognitive biases. These tendencies can undermine investment loss tolerance beyond the baseline level shaped by sociodemographic, economic, psychological, and cultural factors. This study empirically examines the association between overconfidence and investment loss tolerance, which is measured by the point at which respondents indicate they would sell their investments in a hypothetical loss scenario. Using a large-scale dataset of 161,765 active investors from one of Japan’s largest online securities firms, we conduct ordered probit and ordered logit regression analyses, controlling for a range of sociodemographic, economic, and psychological variables. Our findings reveal that overconfidence is statistically significantly and negatively associated with investment loss tolerance, indicating that overconfident investors are more prone to prematurely liquidating assets during market downturns. This behavior reflects an impulse to avoid even modest losses. The findings suggest several possible practical strategies to mitigate the detrimental effects of overconfidence on long-term investment behavior. Full article
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