Search Results (157)

As a strategic material second only to grain, cotton serves both as a vital agricultural commodity and a key industrial crop. With the increasing frequency of global shocks and the deepening financialization of commodity markets, price linkages among major international cotton futures markets have strengthened. Consequently, in addition to fundamental supply and demand factors, cross-border price transmission has become a significant determinant of cotton pricing. This study employs daily closing prices of China’s cotton futures, cotton yarn futures, and U.S. cotton futures from 1 September 2017 to 31 March 2025 to examine the spillover effects among these three futures markets using time series models. The results reveal that U.S. cotton futures have dominated the Chinese cotton-related futures markets even prior to the onset of trade tensions, with strong domestic market comovements. However, both the U.S.-China trade war and the COVID-19 pandemic significantly weakened price co-movements while intensifying volatility spillovers. Although these external shocks enhanced the relative independence of China’s cotton yarn futures and modestly increased China’s pricing influence, U.S. cotton futures have consistently maintained their central role in price discovery. Full article

To enhance the utilization efficiency of existing construction land and promote integrated urban–rural development, China’s government has implemented the “Linkage” Policy, which has commodified land development rights and reallocated urban–rural development potential. In recent years, a growing number of studies have examined the diversified governance structures of “Linkage” projects, which has deepened our understanding of China’s project-based rural land governance. However, most studies have focused primarily on governance performance while neglecting the comparative advantages of different governance structures in improving process efficiency, particularly within the same local institutional environment. To fill this gap, this study first conceptualizes the transactions and sub-transactions in the Transfer of Development Rights (TDR) and then systematically assesses the associated organizational risks. Drawing on Transaction Cost Theory, this paper analyzes how governance diversity mitigates risks and optimizes efficiency. Empirically, this research employs a comparative case study approach, examining three representative governance modes using data triangulation to ensure robust findings. Finally, the theoretical and empirical analyses yield three key findings regarding China’s TDR system: First, given the inherent complexity and substantial financial investment required, the efficient implementation of China’s rural land development projects necessitates leveraging complementary stakeholder strengths. Second, transaction risks constitute the primary source of transaction costs and the central concern of all governance structures. Third, beyond governance structure selection, local institutional innovations and collective action mechanisms significantly enhance governance efficiency. Full article

In recent years, growing concerns over environmental degradation and deepening awareness of the necessity of sustainable development have propelled green and low-carbon energy transition into a focal issue for both academia and policymakers. By decomposing energy transition into the transformation of energy structure and the upgrading of energy efficiency, this study investigates the impact and mechanisms of green finance on energy transition across 30 provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) in China, with the exception of Tibet. In addition, the impact of climate change is incorporated into the analytical framework. Empirical results demonstrate that green finance development significantly accelerates energy transition, a conclusion robust to rigorous validation. Analysis of the mechanism shows that green finance promotes energy transition through the facilitation of technological innovation and the upgrade of industrial structures. Moreover, empirical evidence reveals that climate change undermines the promotional influence of sustainable finance on energy system transformation. The magnitude of this suppression varies nonlinearly across provincial jurisdictions with differing energy transition progress. Regional heterogeneity analyses further uncover marked discrepancies in climate–finance interactions, demonstrating amplified effects in coastal economic hubs, underdeveloped western provinces, and regions with mature eco-financial markets. According to these findings, actionable policy suggestions are put forward to strengthen green finance and accelerate energy transition. Full article

Against the backdrop of China’s fast-growing digital economy and its financial inclusion agenda, there is still little city-level evidence on whether the e-CNY pilot accelerates financial deepening at the grassroots. Using a balanced panel of 271 prefecture-and-above cities for 2016–2022, this study employs a staggered difference-in-differences (SDID) design augmented by the synthetic control method (SCM) to rigorously identify the policy effect of the e-CNY pilot. The results show that the pilot program significantly improves urban financial inclusion, contributing to more equitable access to financial services and supporting inclusive socio-economic development. Mechanism analysis suggests that the effect operates mainly through two channels, a merchant-coverage channel and a transaction-scale channel, with the former contributing the majority of the overall effect. Incorporating a migration-based mobility index shows that most studies’ focus on the merchant-coverage effect is amplified in cities under tight mobility restrictions but wanes where commercial networks are already saturated, whereas the transaction-scale channel is largely insensitive to mobility shocks. Heterogeneity tests further indicate stronger gains in non-provincial capital cities and in the eastern and central regions. Overall, the study uncovers a “penetration-inclusion” network logic and provides policy insights for advancing sustainable financial inclusion through optimized terminal deployment, merchant incentives, and diversified scenario design. Full article

To promote the deepening of reform and the effective implementation of policies, the State Council launched the special supervision of the liquidation of local governments’ arrears in project funds in 2016, which supports the optimization of the government debt structure. Based on the quasi-natural experiment of the special supervision action, in this study, we use the difference-in-difference (DID) method to investigate the effect and mechanism of the optimization of the government debt structure on the financing constraints of private enterprises. This research is particularly relevant for private enterprises, which face acute financing challenges and are critical for promoting inclusive economic growth, employment, and innovation—key pillars of sustainable development. The results are as follows. Firstly, the special supervision significantly reduces the financing constraints of private enterprises. Secondly, it has heterogeneous effects on the financing constraints of different types of enterprises, and the alleviating effect is particularly significant for enterprises that rely on the funding support of local governments. This highlights the importance of institutional reforms in fostering equitable access to financial resources for vulnerable enterprise groups such as private enterprises. Thirdly, the optimization of the government debt structure eases enterprises’ financing constraints by improving their capital turnover and trade credit. By enhancing liquidity and creditworthiness, these changes create a more resilient financial environment for private enterprises, supporting their long-term development and contribution to sustainable economic systems. Full article

The agricultural products trade network is essentially a complex adaptive system formed by nonlinear interactions between countries. Based on the complex system theory, this study reveals the dynamic self-organization law of the RCEP regional agricultural products trade network by using the panel data of RCEP agricultural products export trade from 2000 to 2023, combining social network analysis (SNA) and the temporal exponential random graph model (TERGM). The results show the following: (1) The RCEP agricultural products trade network presents a “core-edge” hierarchical structure, with China as the core hub to drive regional resource integration and ASEAN countries developing into secondary core nodes to deepen collaborative dependence. (2) The “China-ASEAN-Japan-Korea “riangle trade structure is formed under the RCEP framework, and the network has the characteristics of a “small world”. The leading mode of South–South trade promotes the regional economic order to shift from the traditional vertical division of labor to multiple coordination. (3) The evolution of trade network system is driven by multiple factors: endogenous reciprocity and network expansion are the core structural driving forces; synergistic optimization of supply and demand matching between economic and financial development to promote system upgrading; geographical proximity and cultural convergence effectively reduce transaction costs and enhance system connectivity, but geographical distance is still the key system constraint that restricts the integration of marginal countries. This study provides a systematic and scientific analytical framework for understanding the resilience mechanism and structural evolution of regional agricultural trade networks under global shocks. Full article

In this research paper, we study symmetry groups, soliton solutions, and the dynamical behavior of the Ivancevic Option Pricing Model (IOPM). First, we find the Lie symmetries of the considered model; next, we use them to determine the corresponding symmetry groups. Then, we attempt to solve IOPM by means of two methods. We provide some wave solutions and give further details of the solution using 2D and 3D graphs. These results are interpreted as important clarifications in financial mathematics and deepen our understanding of the dynamics involved during the pricing of options. Secondly, the quasi-periodic behavior of the two-dimensional dynamical system and its perturbed system are plotted using Python software (Python 3.13.5 version). Various frequencies and amplitudes are considered to confirm the quasi-periodic behavior via the Lyapunov exponent, bifurcation diagram, and multistability analysis. These findings are particularly in consonance with current research that investigates IOPM as a nonlinear wave alternate for normal models and the importance of graphical representations in the understanding of financial derivative dynamics. We, therefore, hope to fill in the gaps in the literature that currently exist about the use of multi-solution methods and their effects on financial modeling through the employment of sophisticated graphical techniques. This will be helpful in discussing matters in the field of financial mathematics and open up new directions of investigation. Full article

Oil palm cultivation plays a critical role in rural livelihoods in Indonesia, yet previous research has often overlooked systematic institutional differences among smallholders. This study aims to analyze disparities in assets, strategies, and livelihood outcomes among three oil palm smallholder typologies—ex-Perkebunan Inti Rakyat (PIR) transmigrant smallholders who received land through government transmigration programs, independent smallholders who cultivate oil palm without formal partnerships, and plasma smallholders operating under corporate partnership schemes—in Central Mamuju Regency, West Sulawesi. A descriptive quantitative approach based on the sustainable livelihoods framework was employed, using chi-square analysis of data collected from 90 respondents through structured interviews and field observations. The results show that ex-PIR smallholders possess higher physical, financial, and social capital and achieve better income and welfare outcomes compared to independent and plasma smallholders. Independent smallholders exhibit resilience through diversified livelihood strategies, whereas plasma smallholders face asset limitations and structural dependency on partner companies, increasing their economic vulnerability. The study concludes that differentiated policy approaches are necessary to enhance the resilience of each group, including improving capital access, promoting income diversification, and strengthening institutions for plasma smallholders. Future research should expand geographical scope and explore factors such as technology adoption, gender dynamics, and intergenerational knowledge transfer to deepen understanding of sustainable smallholder livelihoods in tropical plantation contexts. Full article

This study investigates the convergence of blockchain, artificial intelligence (AI), near-field communication (NFC), and mobile technologies in electronic payment (e-payment) systems, proposing an innovative integrative framework to deconstruct the systemic innovations and transformative impacts driven by such technological synergy. Unlike prior research, which often focuses on single-technology adoption, this study uniquely adopts a cross-technology convergence perspective. To our knowledge, this is the first study to empirically map the multi-technology convergence landscape in e-payment using scientometric techniques. By employing bibliometric and thematic network analysis methods, the research maps the intellectual evolution and key research themes of technology convergence in e-payment systems. Findings reveal that while the integration of these technologies holds significant promise, improving transparency, scalability, and responsiveness, it also presents challenges, including interoperability barriers, privacy concerns, and regulatory complexity. Furthermore, this study highlights the potential for convergent technologies to unintentionally deepen the digital divide if not inclusively designed. The novelty of this study is threefold: (1) theoretical contribution—this study expands existing frameworks of technology adoption and digital governance by introducing an integrated perspective on cross-technology adoption and regulatory responsiveness; (2) practical relevance—it offers actionable, stakeholder-specific recommendations for policymakers, financial institutions, developers, and end-users; (3) methodological innovation—it leverages scientometric and topic modeling techniques to capture the macro-level trajectory of technology convergence, complementing traditional qualitative insights. In conclusion, this study advances the theoretical foundations of digital finance and provides forward-looking policy and managerial implications, paving the way for a more secure, inclusive, and innovation-driven digital payment ecosystem. Full article

As freshwater scarcity becomes increasingly severe under climate change, physical water risk has emerged as a critical financial concern for firms in water-intensive industries. This study explores whether and how physical water risk influences firms’ cost of equity, and whether corporate social responsibility (CSR)—both its overall level and structural differentiation—modulates this relationship. Using panel data from 849 Chinese listed companies in water-intensive sectors between 2011 and 2022, we find that physical water risk significantly elevates equity capital costs. While a strong CSR performance buffers this effect, CSR differentiation—reflected in uneven CSR engagement across different domains—undermines or even reverses this moderating role. Additional heterogeneity analyses show that these patterns are more pronounced in large and non-state-owned enterprises. These findings deepen our understanding of how environmental risks are priced in capital markets and offer strategic insights for firms seeking to manage sustainability-related financial exposures. Full article

In the context of global climate change and the deepening of ecological civilization construction, forestry, as an ecological security barrier and green economic engine, faces many challenges to the enhancement of its ecological total factor productivity in the traditional development model. As a new type of production factor, the data factor provides a new path to crack the bottleneck of forestry eco-efficiency improvement. Based on China’s provincial annual panel data from 2014 to 2022, this study systematically examines the impact and mechanism of data factors on forestry ecological total factor productivity by using the SBM-GML model and dual machine learning model. It was found that data factors have a significant contribution to forestry ecological total factor productivity, a conclusion that passes a series of robustness tests and endogeneity tests. The analysis of the mechanism shows that the data factor enhances the total factor productivity of forestry ecology mainly through three paths: promoting the progress of forestry technology and promoting the rationalization and advanced structure of the forestry industry. Further analysis showed that the promotional effect of data elements is more obvious in regions with a high level of green finance development, high intensity of environmental regulation, and strong financial autonomy. It is recommended to systematically promote the in-depth application of data elements in forestry, build a data element-driven innovation system for the whole chain of forestry, and implement regionally differentiated data element-enabling strategies. Full article

This paper investigates the spillover effects and transmission networks of systemic risk within China’s national economic sectors under extreme conditions from both time and frequency domain perspectives, building upon the spillover index methodology and calculating the ∆CoVaR index for Chinese industries. The findings indicate the following: (1) Extreme-risk spillovers synchronize across industries but exhibit pronounced time-varying peaks during the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, the 2015 crash, and the COVID-19 pandemic. (2) Long-term spillovers dominate overall connectedness, highlighting the lasting impact of fundamentals and structural linkages. (3) In terms of risk volatility, Energy, Materials, Consumer Discretionary, and Financials are most sensitive to systemic market shocks. (4) On the risk spillover effect, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Healthcare, and Information Technology consistently act as net transmitters of extreme risk, while Energy, Materials, Consumer Staples, Financials, Telecom Services, Utilities, and Real Estate primarily serve as net receivers. Based on these findings, the paper suggests deepening the regulatory mechanisms for systemic risk, strengthening the synergistic effect of systemic risk measurement and early warning indicators, and coordinating risk monitoring, early warning, and risk prevention and mitigation. It further emphasizes the importance of avoiding fragmented regulation by establishing a joint risk prevention mechanism across sectors and departments, strengthening the supervision of inter-industry capital flows. Finally, it highlights the need to closely monitor the formation mechanisms and transmission paths of new financial risks under the influence of the pandemic to prevent the accumulation and eruption of risks in the post-pandemic era. Authorities must conduct annual “Industry Transmission Reviews” to map emerging risk nodes and supply-chain vulnerabilities, refine policy tools, and stabilize market expectations so as to forestall the build-up and sudden release of new systemic shocks. Full article

The development of inclusive finance brings opportunities for farmers’ income growth. Based on panel data from 30 provinces in China from 2014 to 2023, this study explores the relationship between financial inclusion and two dimensions of financial inclusion (the degree of inclusion and the service efficiency of the financial function) and farmers’ incomes by constructing a two-way fixed-effects model. Meanwhile, this study further discusses the impact of agricultural total factor productivity on this relationship using a mediated-effects model. The results show that financial inclusion, the degree of inclusion, and the service efficiency of the financial function significantly contribute to the growth of farmers’ income in both the short and long run. Meanwhile, farmers’ reliance on financial inclusion and the two dimensions of financial inclusion deepens with income, and this reliance is more pronounced in economically developed regions. Further, promoting agricultural total factor productivity is an important way for financial inclusion and the degree of inclusion to contribute to short- and long-term income growth for Chinese farmers. Full article

Amid accelerating globalization and urbanization, regional revitalization has become a key policy direction for countries to address regional decline. Among these, social capital and community empowerment can significantly promote regional development. Social capital emphasizes how trust, norms, and reciprocity facilitate collective action, while community empowerment focuses on improving residents’ participation and autonomous decision-making capacity. Existing research primarily focuses on cases from Europe and America; there is no in-depth exploration of the interaction between regional revitalization and social capital in Taiwan. Notably, systematic studies are lacking regarding the mechanisms through which University Social Responsibility (USR) programs engage and promote community development. This study takes the Wanli and Jinshan districts in northern Taiwan as case study examples. We employ action research and qualitative research methods to analyze the role of social capital and community empowerment in regional revitalization. This paper reviews how internal trust and cooperation within a community build bonding social capital. It explores how USR programs promote collaboration between communities and external resources through bridging social capital. The findings indicate that bonding social capital can enhance community cohesion and support regional revitalization efforts; bridging social capital can introduce academic, corporate, and governmental resources, providing technical and financial support for community innovation. The participatory mechanism of USR programs not only fosters civic awareness development but also offers a cross-organizational cooperation platform for regional revitalization, enabling communities to integrate internal and external resources more effectively. The results of this study indicate that bonding and bridging social capital can achieve complementary effects through USR programs, further promoting community empowerment and regional development. This study deepens the application of social capital theory in regional revitalization. It provides an empirical basis for policymakers and academic institutions to optimize the planning and implementation of future USR programs. While the study focuses on a geographically bounded set of cases and employs an exploratory qualitative design, these choices enabled a rich, context-sensitive understanding of how regional self-governance and community capital may be strengthened in practice. Future research could extend this line of inquiry by examining additional locales, adopting longitudinal perspectives, and integrating mixed-method approaches, thereby further amplifying the robustness and applicability of the propositions advanced here. Full article

Bitcoin’s role in global finance has rapidly expanded with increasing institutional participation, prompting new questions about its linkage to macroeconomic variables. This study thoughtfully integrates a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) covariate selection process within homogeneous and non-homogeneous Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) to analyze 16 macroeconomic and Bitcoin-specific factors from 2016 to 2024. The proposed method integrates likelihood penalties to refine variable selection and employs a rolling-window bootstrap procedure for 1-, 5-, and 30-step-ahead forecasting. Results indicate a fundamental shift: while early Bitcoin pricing was primarily driven by technical and supply-side factors (e.g., halving cycles, trading volume), later periods exhibit stronger ties to macroeconomic indicators such as exchange rates and major stock indices. Heightened volatility aligns with significant events—including regulatory changes and institutional announcements—underscoring Bitcoin’s evolving market structure. These findings demonstrate that integrating Bayesian MCMC within a regime-switching model provides robust insights into Bitcoin’s deepening connection with traditional financial forces. Full article