Search Results (1,308)

Background: Zoonotic spillover events with pandemic potential are increasingly associated with environmental change, ecosystem disruption, and intensified human–animal interactions. Although the specific origin and timing of future pandemics remain uncertain, there is a clear need to complement traditional preparedness strategies with approaches that support earlier anticipation and prevention. Objectives: This study aims to propose a conceptual approach to reframe pandemic preparedness toward proactive surveillance and spillover prevention. Methods: We introduce a tachyon-inspired conceptual approach, using a thought experiment based on hypothetical faster-than-light particles to illustrate anticipatory observation of pandemic emergence. The framework is informed by interdisciplinary literature on emerging infectious diseases, One Health surveillance, predictive epidemiology, and public-health preparedness. Results: The proposed approach highlights the importance of proactive, integrated surveillance systems that combine human, animal, and environmental data. Key elements include the use of advanced analytical tools such as neural networks, early characterization of population risk profiles, strengthened public-health infrastructure, coordinated governance, adaptable financial resources, and a resilient healthcare workforce. The integration of animal welfare considerations, translational research, and planetary health principles is emphasized as central to reducing spillover risk. Conclusions: Tachyon-inspired thinking offers a conceptual tool to support a shift from reactive pandemic response toward proactive anticipation and prevention. Embedding integrated surveillance and One Health principles into public-health systems may enhance early detection capacity and contribute to mitigating the impact of future pandemics. Full article

The European Water Framework Directive (2000/60/EC) promotes an integrated approach to water management, recognizing water as a shared resource and defining quality objectives. Within this framework, Sustainable Drainage Systems (SuDS) provide effective solutions to improve water quality, control runoff, mitigate hydrogeological risk, and enhance urban resilience. This study investigates the application of SuDS for quantitative stormwater management in a 290-ha industrial district within the Metropolitan City of Milan. Using a synthetic design storm as a benchmark, the study provides event-scale evidence of the performance of SuDS under observed rainfall events, a topic often underrepresented in the literature. Two hydrologic–hydraulic models were developed using SWMM ver. 5.2: a baseline model representing current conditions and a design model integrating SuDS across 24 hectares. Simulations were performed for four rainfall events representative of typical conditions and for a synthetic 10-year return period design event. Results show that, under observed events, SuDS reduce total CSO volumes by 44% and peak flows by 47%, while decreasing overflow activation by around 11%, with the highest effectiveness during ordinary rainfall conditions. Compared with the synthetic 10-year design event, SuDS exhibit similar volume reductions but lower peak-flow attenuation and overflow frequency reduction, highlighting different system responses under real and design rainfalls. Full article

To enhance production efficiency, shale gas development often employs tighter well spacing and aggressive fracturing strategies. However, these approaches can result in well interference, where overlapping fracture networks between adjacent wells adversely affect gas production. This study introduces a comprehensive evaluation method for assessing fracture interference, with a specific focus on the role of Repeatedly Stimulated Volume (RSV). By integrating fracture network analysis with fracturing fluid migration modeling, we propose a combined static and dynamic risk assessment framework. The results demonstrate that RSV is a critical indicator of fracture interference—larger RSV values signify greater fracture overlap and intensified fluid migration between wells. Key engineering parameters influencing RSV are identified, including well spacing, fluid volume, and fracture design. Supported by real-time monitoring techniques such as microseismic events and pressure data, our dynamic assessment approach enables proactive management of interference risks. This work offers practical insights for optimizing shale gas development, allowing for improved production efficiency while mitigating interference-related drawbacks. Full article

Flooding is a significant natural hazard in arid regions, particularly in Saudi Arabia, where intense rainfall events pose serious risks to both infrastructure and public safety. Bahrah City, situated between Jeddah and Makkah, has experienced recurrent flooding owing to its topography, rapid urbanization, and inadequate drainage systems. This study aims to develop a comprehensive flood hazard mapping approach for Bahrah City by integrating remote sensing data, Geographic Information Systems (GISs), and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA). Key input factors included the Digital Elevation Model (DEM), slope, distance from streams, and land use/land cover (LULC). The Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) was applied to assign relative weights to these factors, which were then combined with fuzzy membership values through fuzzy overlay analysis to generate a flood susceptibility map categorized into five levels. According to the AHP analysis, the high-susceptibility zone covers 2.2 km², indicating areas highly vulnerable to flooding, whereas the moderate-susceptibility zone spans 26.1 km², representing areas prone to occasional flooding, but with lower severity. The low-susceptibility zone, covering the largest area (44.7 km ²), corresponds to regions with a lower likelihood of significant flooding. Additionally, hydraulic simulations using the rain-on-grid (RoG) method in HEC-RAS were conducted to validate the hazard assessment by identifying inundation depths. Both the AHP analysis and the RoG flood hazard maps consistently identify the western part of Bahrah City as the high-susceptibility zone, reinforcing the reliability and complementarity of both models. These findings provide critical insights for urban planners and policymakers to improve flood hazard mitigation and strengthen resilience to future flood events. Full article

This paper examines the impact of fiscal policy responses on unemployment across EU countries from 2019 to 2024, a period marked by the COVID-19 pandemic as a shock event. A detailed monthly panel data set is used in this study, employing a fixed-effects estimation model with government spending, revenue, and debt as core variables, along with the COVID-19 dummy as a control variable. The findings reveal a strong association between government spending and revenue in reducing unemployment, aligned with countercyclical fiscal policy support. Conversely, increasing government debt is strongly linked to higher unemployment, indicating a risk of excessive borrowing that could hinder future labor market recovery. Moreover, uncertain external economic conditions, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, have further intensified labor market distortions. Finally, the results highlight that fiscal policies can effectively mitigate unemployment in the short term; however, excessive debt may pose challenges to long-term fiscal sustainability. This study underscores the importance of well-structured and timely coordinated fiscal policy frameworks that promote employment stabilization, while ensuring long-term debt sustainability. Full article

Heart failure (HF) and chronic kidney disease (CKD) are prevalent conditions in older adults, often coexisting and significantly increasing the risk of hospitalization, cardiovascular events, and mortality. Traditional hospital-based care, while essential for acute management, is often insufficient to ensure continuity of care and optimal long-term outcomes. Home-based care, although promising for improving quality of life and reducing hospital-acquired complications, faces challenges related to treatment adherence, monitoring, and caregiver support. Recent evidence highlights the potential of multidisciplinary, patient-centered care models integrating physicians, nurses, pharmacists, and family caregivers. Technological innovations, including telemedicine, remote monitoring, mobile health applications, and artificial intelligence, have shown efficacy in early detection of clinical deterioration, improving adherence, and reducing cardiovascular events in HF and CKD patients. Structured patient education, caregiver training, and proactive follow-up are key elements to optimize transitions from hospital to home and to improve long-term outcomes, including reduced rehospitalizations and better quality of life. Future care strategies should focus on personalized, integrated approaches that combine technology, education, and multidisciplinary collaboration to address the complex needs of HF and CKD patients, while mitigating healthcare costs and enhancing overall patient well-being. Full article

Effective mitigation of geotechnical risk and safety management of underground mine requires accurate estimation of rockburst damage potential. The inherent complexity of the rockburst phenomena due to nonlinear, high dimensional, and interdependent nature of the geological factors involved, however, makes predictive modeling a difficult task. The proposed research is based on the use of the K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN) algorithm to predict the risk of rockbursts with the use of microseismic monitoring data. Several key features like the ratio of total maximum principal stress to uniaxial compressive strength, energy capacity of support system, excavation span, geology factor, Richter magnitude of seismic event, distance between rockburst location and microseismic event, and rock density were applied as input parameters to extract critical rockburst precursor activities. In the test stage, the proposed KNN model recorded an accuracy of 75.50%, a precision of 0.913, a recall value of 0.509, and F1 Score of 0.576. The model is reliable with a significant performance indicating its efficacy in practice. The KNN model showed better classification results as compared to recently available models in literature and provided better generalization and interpretability. The model exhibited high prediction in classified low-risk incidents and had strong indicative capabilities towards high-risk situations, attributed to being a useful tool in rockburst hazard measurement. Full article

With the accelerating pace of urbanization, cities are increasingly affected by rainstorm and flood disasters, which pose severe threats to the safety of residents’ lives and property. Existing models are increasingly inadequate in meeting the accuracy requirements for flood simulation in highly urbanized regions. Thus, it is urgent to develop a new method for flood inundation simulation based on high-resolution urban hydrological units. The novelty of the model lies in the novel structure of the high-resolution Urban Hydrological Units model (HRGM), which replaces coarse sub-catchments with a fine-grained network of urban hydrological units. The primary innovation is the node-based coupling strategy, in which the HRGM provides precise overflow hydrographs at drainage inlets as point sources for LISFLOOD-FP, rather than relying on diffuse runoff inputs from larger areas. In this paper, a high-resolution hydraulic model (HRGM) based on urban hydrological units coupled with a 2D hydrodynamic model (LISFLOOD-FP) was constructed and successfully applied in the Chebeichong watershed. Results show that the model’s simulations align well with observed data, achieving a Nash efficiency coefficient above 0.8 under typical rainfall events. Compared with the SWMM model, the simulation results of HRGM were significantly improved and more consistent with measured results. Taking the rainstorm event on 10 August 2021 as an example, the Nash coefficient increased from 0.7 to 0.85, while the peak flow error decreased markedly from 15.8% to 3.1%. It should be emphasized that urban waterlogging distribution is not continuous but appears as patchy, discontinuous, and fragmented patterns due to the segmentation and blocking effects of roads and buildings in urban areas. The framework presented in this study shows potential for application in other regions requiring flood risk assessment at urban agglomeration scales, offering a valuable reference for advancing flood prediction methodologies and disaster mitigation strategies. Full article

This study analyzes the relationship between fires and climate extremes in the Caatinga biome from 2012 to 2023 by integrating Fire Radiative Power (FRP) from VIIRS (S-NPP and NOAA-20), Vapor Pressure Deficit (VPD) and air temperature from ERA5, drought indices (SPI-1 and SPI-6), and heatwave events from the Xavier database. Daily percentiles of maximum (CTX90pct) and minimum (CTN90pct) temperatures were used to characterize heatwaves. Spatial and temporal dynamics of fire patterns were identified using the HDBSCAN algorithm, an unsupervised Machine Learning clustering method applied in three-dimensional space (latitude, longitude, and time). A marked seasonality was observed, with fire activity peaking from August to November, especially in October, when FRP reached ~1000 MW/h. The years 2015, 2019, 2021, and 2023 exhibited the highest fire intensities. A statistically significant upward trend in cluster frequency was detected (+1094.96 events/year; p < 0.001). Cross-correlations revealed that precipitation deficits (SPI) preceded FRP peaks by about four months, while VPD and air temperature exerted immediate positive effects. FRP correlated positively with heatwave frequency (r = 0.62) and negatively with SPI (r = −0.69). These findings highlight the high vulnerability of the Caatinga to compound drought and heat events, indicating that fire management strategies should account for both antecedent drought conditions, monitored through SPI, and real-time atmospheric dryness, measured by VPD, to effectively mitigate fire risks. Full article

Elevation in the level of whole blood viscosity (WBV) is a known contributor to cardiovascular risk. Moreover, cardiovascular diseases are associated with seasonal variation and the potential impact of seasonal changes on blood viscosity, and associated biomolecules pose substantial cardiovascular risk and are therefore a subject of interest. To evaluate the effect of seasonal changes on whole blood viscosity, glycated haemoglobin and associated biomolecules, namely haematocrit and serum total protein, and their implications on management of diabetic cardiovascular risk are explored. This was a clinical laboratory retrospective observational study involving 10-year pathology data (1999–2008) which estimated whole blood viscosity (eWBV) and the associated biomolecules, namely haematocrit and serum total protein. Comparisons were made between seasonal changes and glycated haemoglobin, whole blood viscosity, haematocrit, and serum total protein levels. Whole blood viscosity, haematocrit, and serum total protein levels increased with colder seasons (p < 0.001), peaking in the winter. However, the seasonal variation in the level of glycated haemoglobin did not achieve statistical significance. Blood viscosity fluctuates between seasons, with peaks occurring in the winter season. This fluctuation will assist in adjusting monitoring and treatment strategies of diabetic risks seasonally. In addition, recognition of seasonal variations will help in precise risk assessment of timely interventions to mitigate the risk of cardiovascular events in diabetes management. Full article

Emerging and re-emerging viruses continue to pose major threats to public health. Their ability to adapt, cross species barriers, and spread rapidly can trigger severe outbreaks or even pandemics. Strengthening preparedness with comprehensive and efficient strategies is therefore essential. Here, we explore the key components of viral outbreak preparedness, including surveillance systems, diagnostic capacity, prevention and control measures, non-pharmaceutical interventions, antiviral therapeutics, and research and development. We emphasize the increasing importance of genomic surveillance, wastewater-based surveillance, real-time data sharing, and the One Health approach to better anticipate zoonotic spillovers. Current challenges and future directions are also discussed. Effective preparedness requires transparent risk communication and equitable access to diagnostics, vaccines, and therapeutics. The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted both the promise of next-generation vaccine platforms and the necessity of maintaining diagnostic capacity, as early testing delays hindered containment efforts. Countries adopted various non-pharmaceutical interventions: risk communication and social distancing proved to be the most effective, while combined workplace infection-prevention measures outperformed single strategies. These experiences highlight the importance of early detection, rapid response, and multisectoral collaboration in mitigating the impact of viral outbreaks. By applying best practices and lessons learned from recent events, global health systems can strengthen resilience and improve readiness for future viral threats. Full article

Extreme events often provoke critical structural vibrations, compromising building performance and resilience. Particle impact dampers (PIDs) are widely recognized as effective passive vibration control devices; however, their nonlinear dynamics and unpredictable particle motion limit adaptability under uncertain hazard conditions. This study introduces a pendulum-type PID configuration designed to enhance controllability and energy dissipation by tuning particle frequency through suspension. Both the primary structure and particles are modeled as pendulums, and their interactions are analyzed under free and forced vibration scenarios. A comprehensive parametric study reveals that increasing the frequency ratio (F.R), defined as the ratio of particle natural frequency to that of the structure, significantly improves damping efficiency. At F.R = 5.0, with clearance d = 0.1 and restitution coefficient e = 0.2, the system achieves an average damping ratio of approximately 0.28 in free vibrations. Under resonant forced vibration, the proposed damper reduces amplitude ratios to below 0.3 compared to undamped conditions. The results confirm that lower clearance and restitution values consistently yield superior damping performance. The findings demonstrate that the pendulum-type PID offers a customizable, cost-effective solution for mitigating structural vibrations, thereby contributing to risk-informed and resilience-oriented design strategies for building structures exposed to extreme events. Full article

The electric power grid constitutes a foundational pillar of modern critical infrastructure (CI), underpinning societal functionality and global economic stability. Yet, the increasing convergence of Information Technology (IT) and Operational Technology (OT), particularly through the integration of Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) and Industrial Control Systems (ICS), has amplified the sector’s exposure to sophisticated cyber threats. This study conducts a comparative analysis of five major cyber incidents targeting electric power systems: the 2015 and 2016 Ukrainian power grid disruptions, the 2022 Industroyer2 event, the 2010 Stuxnet attack, and the 2012 Shamoon incident. Each case is examined with respect to its objectives, methodologies, operational impacts, and mitigation efforts. Building on these analyses, the research evaluates the extent to which such attacks could have been prevented or mitigated through the systematic adoption of leading cybersecurity maturity frameworks. The NIST Cybersecurity Framework (CSF) 2.0, the ENISA NIS2 Directive Risk Management Measures, the U.S. Department of Energy’s Cybersecurity Capability Maturity Model (C2M2), and the Cybersecurity Risk Foundation (CRF) Maturity Model alongside complementary technical standards such as NIST SP 800-82 and IEC 62443 have been thoroughly examined. The findings suggest that a proactive, layered defense architecture grounded in the principles of these frameworks could have significantly reduced both the likelihood and the operational impact of the reviewed incidents. Moreover, the paper identifies critical gaps in the existing maturity models, particularly in their ability to capture hybrid, cross-domain, and human-centric threat dynamics. The study concludes by proposing directions for evolving from compliance-driven to resilience-oriented cybersecurity ecosystems, offering actionable recommendations for policymakers and power system operators to strengthen the cyber-physical resilience of electric generation and distribution infrastructures worldwide. Full article

Background: Osteoarthritis (OA) is a prevalent degenerative joint disease and a major cause of disability in the aging population. Total knee arthroplasty (TKA) is a common intervention for advanced OA, yet postoperative outcomes may vary, particularly among individuals with obesity. Elevated body mass index (BMI) is a recognized risk factor for the development and progression of OA and may influence perioperative and postoperative complication rates. Objective: This literature review evaluates whether a specific BMI threshold should guide eligibility for primary TKA, with particular emphasis on the impact of BMI on surgical risk, implant outcomes, and functional recovery. Methods: A systematic search was conducted across PubMed (MEDLINE), Cochrane Library, EMBASE, and Google Scholar to identify peer-reviewed studies from the past two decades examining the relationship between BMI and clinical outcomes following primary TKA. Findings: Higher BMI—especially ≥40 kg/m²—is consistently associated with increased perioperative and postoperative complications, including wound issues, infection, thromboembolic events, longer hospital stay, and higher revision risk. Despite these elevated risks, evidence demonstrates that obese and morbidly obese patients experience substantial improvements in pain, mobility, and function that are comparable in magnitude to those seen in non-obese individuals. The literature does not support a universally applicable BMI cutoff for determining surgical eligibility. Conclusions: BMI is an important modifier of surgical risk but should not be used as an absolute criterion for excluding patients from TKA. Instead, a personalized approach is recommended—one that considers BMI within the context of comorbidities, functional limitation, patient motivation, and opportunities for preoperative optimization. With appropriate patient selection and risk-mitigation strategies, TKA remains a clinically valuable and justified intervention across all BMI categories. Full article

Infectious bronchitis virus (IBV) remains a common pathogen in poultry production. Although its clinical and economic impact in Europe has markedly declined in recent decades due to extensive vaccination, ongoing viral circulation continues to pose risks to animal health and provides opportunities for viral evolution. In this study, we investigated the molecular epidemiology of GI-19 and related strains in Spain using samples collected between 2008 and 2025. Partial S1 sequencing revealed a complex scenario involving three major clades and several minor ones, the latter likely resulting from independent introduction events from north-western Europe, particularly Denmark. Six distinct recombination events involving GI-13 and GI-19 parental strains—some apparently vaccine derived—were also identified, several of which showed wide geographical spread and long-term persistence. Both recombinant and non-recombinant variants were detected across multiple regions and production systems, indicating strong epidemiological connectivity among broilers, layers, and breeders. Although overall viral population size appeared stable over time, shifts in the predominance of specific clades and recombinant groups were observed, possibly reflecting fitness advantages of newly introduced or evolved variants and reduced cross-protection from existing immunity. These findings highlight the susceptibility of the poultry sector to repeated introductions, mixing, and the dissemination of IBV variants. Strengthened molecular surveillance and tailored control strategies, together with the periodic evaluation of vaccination practices and population immunity, are needed to limit viral circulation, reduce recombination opportunities, and mitigate the impact of IBV. Full article