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Volume 17
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10.3390/atmos17010046
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Article

Fire and the Vulnerability of the Caatinga Biome to Droughts and Heatwaves

by
Katyelle F. S. Bezerra
1,*,
Helber B. Gomes
1,2,
Janaína P. Nascimento
3,
Dirceu Luís Herdies
4,
Hakki Baltaci
5,
Maria Cristina L. Silva
2,
Gabriel de Oliveira
6,7,
Erin Koster
6,
Heliofábio B. Gomes
2,
Madson T. Silva
1,
Fabrício Daniel S. Silva
1,2,
Rafaela L. Costa
2 and
Daniel M. C. Lima
1
1
Academic Unit of Atmospheric Sciences, Federal University of Campina Grande, Campina Grande 58429-900, Brazil
2
Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Federal University of Alagoas, Maceió 57072-900, Brazil
3
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO 80305, USA
4
National Institute for Space Research (INPE), São Paulo 12227-010, Brazil
5
Institute of Earth and Marine Sciences, Gebze Technical University, 41400 Gebze, Türkiye
6
Stokes School of Marine and Environmental Sciences, University of South Alabama, Mobile, AL 36688, USA
7
Dauphin Island Sea Lab, Dauphin Island, AL 36528, USA
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Atmosphere 2026, 17(1), 46; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos17010046 (registering DOI)
Submission received: 6 November 2025 / Revised: 19 December 2025 / Accepted: 27 December 2025 / Published: 29 December 2025
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Weather and Climate Extremes: Past, Current and Future)
Versions Notes

Abstract

This study analyzes the relationship between fires and climate extremes in the Caatinga biome from 2012 to 2023 by integrating Fire Radiative Power (FRP) from VIIRS (S-NPP and NOAA-20), Vapor Pressure Deficit (VPD) and air temperature from ERA5, drought indices (SPI-1 and SPI-6), and heatwave events from the Xavier database. Daily percentiles of maximum (CTX90pct) and minimum (CTN90pct) temperatures were used to characterize heatwaves. Spatial and temporal dynamics of fire patterns were identified using the HDBSCAN algorithm, an unsupervised Machine Learning clustering method applied in three-dimensional space (latitude, longitude, and time). A marked seasonality was observed, with fire activity peaking from August to November, especially in October, when FRP reached ~1000 MW/h. The years 2015, 2019, 2021, and 2023 exhibited the highest fire intensities. A statistically significant upward trend in cluster frequency was detected (+1094.96 events/year; p < 0.001). Cross-correlations revealed that precipitation deficits (SPI) preceded FRP peaks by about four months, while VPD and air temperature exerted immediate positive effects. FRP correlated positively with heatwave frequency (r = 0.62) and negatively with SPI (r = −0.69). These findings highlight the high vulnerability of the Caatinga to compound drought and heat events, indicating that fire management strategies should account for both antecedent drought conditions, monitored through SPI, and real-time atmospheric dryness, measured by VPD, to effectively mitigate fire risks.
Keywords: fire; extreme events; caatinga; machine learning fire; extreme events; caatinga; machine learning

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MDPI and ACS Style

Bezerra, K.F.S.; Gomes, H.B.; Nascimento, J.P.; Herdies, D.L.; Baltaci, H.; Silva, M.C.L.; de Oliveira, G.; Koster, E.; Gomes, H.B.; Silva, M.T.; et al. Fire and the Vulnerability of the Caatinga Biome to Droughts and Heatwaves. Atmosphere 2026, 17, 46. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos17010046

AMA Style

Bezerra KFS, Gomes HB, Nascimento JP, Herdies DL, Baltaci H, Silva MCL, de Oliveira G, Koster E, Gomes HB, Silva MT, et al. Fire and the Vulnerability of the Caatinga Biome to Droughts and Heatwaves. Atmosphere. 2026; 17(1):46. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos17010046

Chicago/Turabian Style

Bezerra, Katyelle F. S., Helber B. Gomes, Janaína P. Nascimento, Dirceu Luís Herdies, Hakki Baltaci, Maria Cristina L. Silva, Gabriel de Oliveira, Erin Koster, Heliofábio B. Gomes, Madson T. Silva, and et al. 2026. "Fire and the Vulnerability of the Caatinga Biome to Droughts and Heatwaves" Atmosphere 17, no. 1: 46. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos17010046

APA Style

Bezerra, K. F. S., Gomes, H. B., Nascimento, J. P., Herdies, D. L., Baltaci, H., Silva, M. C. L., de Oliveira, G., Koster, E., Gomes, H. B., Silva, M. T., S. Silva, F. D., Costa, R. L., & Lima, D. M. C. (2026). Fire and the Vulnerability of the Caatinga Biome to Droughts and Heatwaves. Atmosphere, 17(1), 46. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos17010046

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