Search Results (607)

Forecasting the energy consumption of different consumers became an important procedure with the creation of the European Electricity Market. This study presents a methodology for 24-hour ahead prediction of the energy consumption, which is suitable for application in animal husbandry facilities, such as pig farms. To achieve this, 24 individual models are trained using artificial neural networks that forecast the energy production 1 to 24 h ahead. The selected features include power consumption over the last 72 h, time-based data, average, minimum, and maximum daily temperatures, relative humidities, and wind speeds. The models’ Normalized mean absolute error (NMAE), Normalized root mean square error (NRMSE), and Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) vary between 16.59% and 19.00%, 22.19% and 24.73%, and 9.49% and 11.49%, respectively. Furthermore, the case studies showed that in most situations, the forecasting error does not exceed 10% with several cases up to 25%. The proposed methodology can be useful for energy managers of animal farm facilities, and help them provide a better prognosis of their energy consumption for the Energy Market. The proposed methodology could be improved by selecting additional features, such as the variation of the controlled meteorological parameters over the last couple of days and the schedule of technological processes. Full article

This article presents a comprehensive review of methods used for forecasting electricity consumption. The studies analyzed by the authors encompass both classical statistical models and modern approaches based on artificial intelligence, including machine-learning and deep-learning techniques. Electricity load forecasting is categorized into four time horizons: very short term, short term, medium term, and long term. The authors conducted a comparative analysis of various models, such as autoregressive models, neural networks, fuzzy logic systems, hybrid models, and evolutionary algorithms. Particular attention was paid to the effectiveness of these methods in the context of variable input data, such as weather conditions, seasonal fluctuations, and changes in energy consumption patterns. The article emphasizes the growing importance of accurate forecasts in the context of the energy transition, integration of renewable energy sources, and the management of the evolving electricity system, shaped by decentralization, renewable integration, and data-intensive forecasting demands. In conclusion, the authors highlight the lack of a universal forecasting approach and the need for further research on hybrid models that combine interpretability with high predictive accuracy. This review can serve as a valuable resource for decision-makers, grid operators, and researchers involved in energy system planning. Full article

Intensive energy consumption in the building sector remains one of the primary contributors to climate change and global warming. Within Renewable Energy Communities (RECs), improving energy management is essential for promoting sustainability and reducing environmental impact. Accurate forecasting of energy consumption at the community level is a key tool in this effort. Traditionally, engineering-based methods grounded in thermodynamic principles have been employed, offering high accuracy under controlled conditions. However, their reliance on exhaustive building-level data and high computational costs limits their scalability in dynamic REC settings. In contrast, Artificial Intelligence (AI)-driven methods provide flexible and scalable alternatives by learning patterns from historical consumption and environmental data. This study investigates three Machine Learning (ML) models, Decision Tree (DT), Random Forest (RF), and CatBoost, and one Deep Learning (DL) model, Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), to forecast community electricity consumption using real smart meter data and local meteorological variables. The study focuses on a REC in Loureiro, Portugal, consisting of 172 residential users from whom 16 months of 15 min interval electricity consumption data were collected. Temporal features (hour of the day, day of the week, month) were combined with lag-based usage patterns, including features representing energy consumption at the corresponding time in the previous hour and on the previous day, to enhance model accuracy by leveraging short-term dependencies and daily repetition in usage behavior. Models were evaluated using Mean Squared Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), and the Coefficient of Determination $R^2$. Among all models, CatBoost achieved the best performance, with an MSE of 0.1262, MAPE of 4.77%, and an $R^2$ of 0.9018. These results highlight the potential of ensemble learning approaches for improving energy demand forecasting in RECs, supporting smarter energy management and contributing to energy and environmental performance. Full article

Electric buses are key in the strategy towards a greenhouse-gas-neutral fleet. However, their restrictions in terms of range and refueling as well as their increased price point present new challenges for public transport companies. This study aims to address, based on real-world operational data, how energy consumption and charging behavior affect battery aging and how operational strategies can be optimized to extend battery life under realistic conditions. This article presents an energy consumption analysis with respect to ambient temperatures and average vehicle speed based exclusively on real-world data of an urban bus fleet, providing a data foundation for range forecasting and infrastructure planning optimized for public transport needs. Additionally, the State of Charge (SOC) window during operation and vehicle idle time as well as the charging power were analyzed in this case study to formulate recommendations towards a more battery-friendly treatment. The central research question is whether battery-friendly operational strategies—such as reduced charging power and lower SOC windows—can realistically be implemented in daily public transport operations. The impact of the recommendations on battery lifetime is estimated using a battery aging model on drive cycles. Finally, the reduction in CO₂ emissions compared to diesel buses is estimated. Full article

Accurate time-series forecasting plays a vital role in sensor-driven applications such as energy monitoring, traffic flow prediction, and environmental sensing. While most existing approaches focus on extracting local patterns from historical observations, they often overlook the global temporal information embedded in timestamps. However, this information represents a valuable yet underutilized aspect of sensor-based data that can significantly enhance forecasting performance. In this paper, we propose a novel timestamp-guided knowledge distillation framework (TKDF), which integrates both historical and timestamp information through mutual learning between heterogeneous prediction branches to improve forecasting robustness. The framework comprises two complementary branches: a Backbone Model that captures local dependencies from historical sequences, and a Timestamp Mapper that learns global temporal patterns encoded in timestamp features. To enhance information transfer and reduce representational redundancy, a self-distillation mechanism is introduced within the Timestamp Mapper. Extensive experiments on multiple real-world sensor datasets—covering electricity consumption, traffic flow, and meteorological measurements—demonstrate that the TKDF consistently improves the performance of mainstream forecasting models. Full article

With the increasing integration of renewable energy and smart technologies in residential energy systems, proactive household energy management (HEM) have become critical for reducing costs, enhancing grid stability, and achieving sustainability goals. This study proposes a ultra-short-term forecasting-driven proactive energy consumption optimization strategy that integrates advanced forecasting models with multi-objective scheduling algorithms. By leveraging deep learning techniques like Graph Attention Network (GAT) architectures, the system predicts ultra-short-term household load profiles with high accuracy, addressing the volatility of residential energy use. Then, based on the predicted data, a comprehensive consideration of electricity costs, user comfort, carbon emission pricing, and grid load balance indicators is undertaken. This study proposes an enhanced mixed-integer optimization algorithm to collaboratively optimize multiple objective functions, thereby refining appliance scheduling, energy storage utilization, and grid interaction. Case studies demonstrate that integrating photovoltaic (PV) power generation forecasting and load forecasting models into a home energy management system, and adjusting the original power usage schedule based on predicted PV output and water heater demand, can effectively reduce electricity costs and carbon emissions without compromising user engagement in optimization. This approach helps promote energy-saving and low-carbon electricity consumption habits among users. Full article

Energy storage technologies are becoming increasingly important when it comes to maintaining the balance between electricity generation and consumption, especially with the increasing share of variable renewable energy sources (VRES). Pumped storage hydropower plants (PSHs) are currently the largest form of energy storage at the grid level. The aim of this study is to investigate the importance and prospects of using PSHs as part of the energy transition to decarbonize energy sources. A comparison was made between PSHs and battery energy storage systems (BESSs) in terms of technical, economic, and ecological aspects. To identify the key factors influencing the wider adoption of PSHs, a combined approach using SWOT analysis (which assesses strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) and the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) as a decision support tool was applied. Regulatory and market uncertainties (13.54%) and financial inequality (12.77%) rank first and belong to the “Threats” group, with energy storage capacity (10.11%) as the most important factor from the “Strengths” group and increased demand for energy storage (9.01%) as the most important factor from the “Opportunities” group. Forecasts up to 2050 show that the capacity of PSHs must be doubled to enable the integration of 80% of VRES into the grids. The study concludes that PSHs play a key role in the energy transition, especially for long-term energy storage and grid stabilization, while BESSs offer complementary benefits for short-term storage and fast frequency regulation. Recommendations to policymakers include the development of clear, accelerated project approval procedures, financial incentives, and support for hybrid PSH systems to accelerate the energy transition and meet decarbonization targets. Full article

Accurately identifying the sources of fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) pollution is crucial for pollution control and public health protection. Taking the PM_2.5 pollution event that occurred in Suzhou in June 2023 as a typical case, this study analyzed the characteristics and components of PM_2.5, and quantified the contributions of meteorological conditions, regional transport, and local emissions to the summertime PM_2.5 surge in a typical Yangtze River Delta (YRD) city. Chemical composition analysis highlighted a sharp increase in nitrate ions (NO₃⁻, contributing up to 49% during peak pollution), with calcium ion (Ca²⁺) and sulfate ion (SO₄²⁻) concentrations rising to 2 times and 7.5 times those of clean periods, respectively. Results from the random forest model demonstrated that emission sources (74%) dominated this pollution episode, significantly surpassing the meteorological contribution (26%). The Weather Research and Forecasting model combined with the Community Multiscale Air Quality model (WRF–CMAQ) further revealed that local emissions contributed the most to PM_2.5 concentrations in Suzhou (46.3%), while external transport primarily originated from upwind cities such as Shanghai and Jiaxing. The findings indicate synergistic effects from dust sources, industrial emissions, and mobile sources. Validation using electricity consumption and key enterprise emission data confirmed that intensive local industrial activities exacerbated PM_2.5 accumulation. Recommendations include strengthening regulations on local industrial and mobile source emissions, and enhancing regional joint prevention and control mechanisms to mitigate cross-boundary transport impacts. Full article

The generation of realistic electrical load profiles is essential for advancing smart grid analytics, demand forecasting, and privacy-preserving data sharing. Traditional approaches often rely on large, high-resolution datasets and complex recurrent neural architectures, which can be unstable or ineffective when training data are limited. This paper proposes a data-driven framework based on a lightweight 1D Convolutional Wasserstein GAN with Gradient Penalty (Conv1D-WGAN-GP) for generating high-fidelity synthetic 24 h load profiles. The model is specifically designed to operate on small- to medium-sized datasets, where recurrent models often fail due to overfitting or training instability. The approach leverages the ability of Conv1D layers to capture localized temporal patterns while remaining compact and stable during training. We benchmark the proposed model against vanilla GAN, WGAN-GP, and Conv1D-GAN across four datasets with varying consumption patterns and sizes, including industrial, agricultural, and residential domains. Quantitative evaluations using statistical divergence measures, Real-vs-Synthetic Distinguishability Score, and visual similarity confirm that Conv1D-WGAN-GP consistently outperforms baselines, particularly in low-data scenarios. This demonstrates its robustness, generalization capability, and suitability for privacy-sensitive energy modeling applications where access to large datasets is constrained. Full article

In various applications, IoT temporal data play a crucial role in accurately predicting future trends. Traditional models, including Rolling Window, SVR-RBF, and ARIMA, suffer from a potential accuracy decrease because they generally use all available data or the most recent data window during training, which can result in the inclusion of noisy data. To address this critical issue, this paper proposes a new forecasting technique called Adaptive Holt–Winters (AHW). The AHW approach utilizes two models grounded in an exponential smoothing methodology. The first model is trained on the most current data window, whereas the second extracts information from a historical data segment exhibiting patterns most analogous to the present. The outputs of the two models are then combined, demonstrating enhanced prediction precision since the focus is on the relevant data patterns. The effectiveness of the AHW model is evaluated against well-known models (Rolling Window, SVR-RBF, ARIMA, LSTM, CNN, RNN, and Holt–Winters), utilizing various metrics, such as RMSE, MAE, p-value, and time performance. A comprehensive evaluation covers various real-world datasets at different granularities (daily and monthly), including temperature from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), humidity and soil moisture measurements from the Basel City environmental system, and global intensity and global reactive power from the Individual Household Electric Power Consumption (IHEPC) dataset. The evaluation results demonstrate that AHW constantly attains higher forecasting accuracy across the tested datasets compared to other models. This indicates the efficacy of AHW in leveraging pertinent data patterns for enhanced predictive precision, offering a robust solution for temporal IoT data forecasting. Full article

Electric vehicles are gaining attention and being adopted by new users every day. Their widespread use creates a new scenario and challenge for the energy system due to the high energy storage demands they generate. Forecasting these loads using artificial neural networks has proven to be an efficient way of solving time series problems. This study employs a multilayer perceptron network with backpropagation training and Bayesian regularisation to enhance generalisation and minimise overfitting errors. The research aggregates real consumption data from 200 households and 348 electric vehicles. The developed method was validated using MAPE, which resulted in errors below 6%. Short-term forecasts were made across the four seasons, predicting the total aggregate demand of households and vehicles for the next 24 h. The methodology produced significant and relevant results for this problem using hybrid training, a few-neuron architecture, deep learning, fast convergence, and low computational cost, with potential for real-world application. The results support the electrical power system by optimising these loads, reducing costs and energy generation, and preparing a new scenario for EV penetration rates. Full article

This paper analyzes the control strategy for urban battery-swapping stations by optimizing the charging policy based on real-time battery demand and the time required for a full charge. The energy stored in available batteries serves as an electricity buffer, allowing energy to be drawn from the grid when costs or equivalent ${\mathrm{CO}}_2$ emissions are low. An optimized charging policy is derived using dynamic programming (DP), assuming average battery demand and accounting for both the costs and emissions associated with electricity consumption. The proposed algorithm uses a prediction of the expected traffic in the area as well as the expected cost of electricity on the net. Battery tests were conducted to assess charging time variability, and traffic density measurements were collected in the city of Valencia across multiple days to provide a realistic scenario, while real-time data of the electricity cost is integrated into the control proposal. The results show that incorporating traffic and electricity price forecasts into the control algorithm can reduce electricity costs by up to 11% and decrease associated ${\mathrm{CO}}_2$ emissions by more than 26%. Full article

Given the increasing energy demand and the environmental consequences of fossil fuel consumption, the shift toward sustainable energy sources has become a global priority. Renewable Energy Communities (RECs)—comprising citizens, businesses, and legal entities—are emerging to democratise access to renewable energy. These communities allow members to produce their own energy, sharing or selling any surplus, thus promoting sustainability and generating economic value. However, scaling RECs while ensuring profitability is challenging due to renewable energy intermittency, price volatility, and heterogeneous consumption patterns. To address these issues, this paper presents a Machine Learning as a Service (MLaaS) framework, where each REC microgrid has a customised Reinforcement Learning (RL) agent and electricity price forecasts are included to support decision-making. All the conducted experiments, using the open-source simulator Pymgrid, demonstrate that the proposed agents reduced operational costs by up to 96.41% compared to a robust baseline heuristic. Moreover, this study also introduces two cost-saving features: Peer-to-Peer (P2P) energy trading between communities and internal energy pools, allowing microgrids to draw local energy before using the main grid. Combined with the best-performing agents, these features achieved trading cost reductions of up to 45.58%. Finally, in terms of deployment, the system relies on an MLOps-compliant infrastructure that enables parallel training pipelines and an autoscalable inference service. Overall, this work provides significant contributions to energy management, fostering the development of more sustainable, efficient, and cost-effective solutions. Full article

The increasing need for sustainable energy management in smart buildings calls for cost-effective solutions that balance energy efficiency and occupant comfort. This article presents a Large Language Model (LLM)-based recommendation system capable of generating proactive, context-aware suggestions from dynamic building conditions. The system was trained on a combination of real-world data and Sinergym simulations, capturing inputs such as weather conditions, forecasts, energy usage, electricity prices, and detailed zone parameters. Five models were fine-tuned and evaluated: GPT-2-Small, GPT-2-Medium, DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Qwen-1.5B, DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Qwen-7B, and GPT-4. To enhance evaluation precision, a novel metric, the Zone-Aware Semantic Reward (ZASR), was developed, combining Sentence-BERT with zone-level scoring and complemented by F1-Score metrics. While GPT-4 demonstrated strong performance with minimal data, its high inference cost limits scalability. In contrast, open-access models like DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Qwen-1.5B, DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Qwen-7B, and GPT-2-Medium required larger datasets but matched or exceeded GPT-4’s performance at significantly lower cost. The system demonstrated adaptability across diverse building types, supported by heterogeneous datasets and parameter normalization. Importantly, the system was also deployed in a real-world multi-zone residential building in Thessaloniki, Greece. During a two-week operational period under near-identical weather and occupancy conditions, the model-assisted recommendations contributed to an estimated 10% reduction in electricity consumption, showcasing the practical potential of LLM-based recommendations in live building environments. Full article

This study develops a real-time energy-efficient control strategy for distributed-drive electric tractors (DDETs) to minimize electrical energy consumption during traction operations. Taking a four-wheel independently driven DDET as the research object, we conduct dynamic analysis of draft operations and establish dynamic models of individual components in the tractor’s drive and transmission system. A backpropagation (BP) neural network-based operational speed prediction model is constructed to forecast operational speed within a finite prediction horizon. Within the model predictive control (MPC) framework, a real-time energy-efficient control strategy is formulated, employing a dynamic programming algorithm for receding horizon optimization of energy consumption minimization. Through plowing operation simulation with comparative analysis against a conventional equal torque distribution strategy, the results indicate that the proposed real-time energy-efficient control strategy exhibits superior performance across all evaluation metrics, providing valuable technical guidance for future research on energy-efficient control strategies in agricultural electric vehicles. Full article