Search Results (663)

The geological environment is characterized by continuous dynamic changes. Landslide activity characteristics can reflect the geological environmental background that affects the landslide development in different historical periods. A comprehensive methodology framework for landslide susceptibility assessment based on landslide activity is proposed. The core concept involves classifying landslide samples into active and inactive categories. Focusing on the Baiyu–Batang section of the upper Jinsha River in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, the influence of landslide activity characteristics on landslide susceptibility assessment is investigated. Both ancient and recent landslides are widely distributed. A total of 366 landslides are identified, which are categorized into three subsets: Dataset A (190 active landslides), Dataset B (190 active and 176 inactive landslides), and Dataset C (176 inactive landslides). Eight disaster-causing factors are selected, and the weighted information value model is utilized to perform the landslide susceptibility assessment. Results show that regions exhibiting very high and high landslide susceptibility are mainly situated along riverbanks such as the Jinsha River, Baqu River, and Ouqu River, exhibiting a distinct linear distribution pattern aligned with the river systems. The landslide susceptibility based on Dataset A demonstrates the highest accuracy, suggesting that incorporating landslide activity significantly enhances the reliability of landslide susceptibility assessment in the current geological environment. Full article

Urban flood damage is increasing globally, particularly in major cities. Factors contributing to flood risk include urban environmental changes, such as watershed development and precipitation variations caused by climate change. Rapid urbanization and weather anomalies further complicate flood management and damage mitigation. Additionally, detailed analyses at small spatial units (e.g., roads, buildings) remain insufficient. Hence, urban flood analysis considering such spatial variations is required. This study analyzed flood risk in Ulsan, Korea, under a severe flood scenario. Land cover changes from the 1980s to 2010s were examined in 10-year intervals, along with the frequency of heavy rainfall and high river water levels that trigger severe floods. Flood risk was structured as a matrix of likelihood and impact. The results revealed that land cover changes, influenced by development policies or regulations, had a minimal impact on urban flood risk, which is likely because effective drainage systems and stringent urban planning regulations mitigated their effects. However, the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events had a substantial effect. These findings were validated using a comparative analysis of an inundation damage trace map and flood range simulated by a physical model. The 10 m grid resolution and time-series likelihood-and-impact framework used in this study can inform budget allocation, resource mobilization, disaster prevention planning, and decision-making during disaster response efforts in major cities. Full article

In this study, the geological disasters in Guizhou Province serve as the research object, and a systematic susceptibility evaluation is conducted in light of the province’s prominent problems with frequent geological disasters. The current research primarily focuses on the application of a single model, often with deficiencies in factor interpretation. It has not yet systematically integrated the advantages of the traditional information model and multiple machine learning algorithms, nor introduced interpretable methods to analyze the disaster mechanism deeply. In this study, the information value (IV) model is combined with machine learning algorithms—logistic regression (LR), decision tree (DT), support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost)—to construct a coupling model to evaluate the susceptibility to geological disasters. Combined with the Bayesian optimization algorithm, the geological disaster susceptibility evaluation model is built. The confusion matrix and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve were used to evaluate the model’s accuracy. The Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method is used to quantify the contribution of each influencing factor, thereby improving the transparency and credibility of the model. The results show that the coupling models, especially the IV-XGB model, achieved the best performance (AUC = 0.9448), which significantly identifies the northern Wujiang River Basin and the central karst core area as high-risk areas and clarifies the disaster-causing mechanism of “terrain–hydrology–human activities” coupling. The SHAP method further identified that NDVI, land use type, and elevation were the predominant controlling factors. This study presents a high-precision and interpretable modeling method for assessing susceptibility to geological disasters, providing a scientific basis for disaster prevention and control in Guizhou Province and similar geological conditions. Full article

This study develops a computational framework for the simultaneous quantification of seismic resilience and economic losses in corrosion-affected coastal continuous girder bridges. The proposed model integrates adjustment factors to reflect delays in post-earthquake repairs and cost increments caused by progressive material degradation. Finite element methods and nonlinear dynamic time-history simulations were conducted on an existing coastal continuous girder bridge to validate the proposed model. The key innovation lies in a probability-weighted resilience index incorporating damage state occurrence probabilities, which overcomes the computational inefficiency of traditional recovery function approaches. Key findings demonstrate that chloride exposure duration exhibits a statistically significant positive association with earthquake-induced structural failure probabilities. Sensitivity analysis reveals two critical patterns: (1) a 0.3 g PGA increase causes a 11.4–18.2% reduction in the resilience index (RI), and (2) every ten-year extension of corrosion exposure decreases RI by 2.7–6.2%, confirming seismic intensity’s predominant role compared to material deterioration. The refined assessment approach reduces computational deviation to ±2.4%, relative to conventional recovery function methods. Economic analysis indicates that chloride-induced aging generates incremental indirect losses ranging from $58,000 to $108,000 per decade, illustrating compounding post-disaster socioeconomic consequences. This work systematically bridges corrosion-dependent structural vulnerabilities with long-term fiscal implications, providing decision-support tools for coastal continuous girder bridges’ maintenance planning. Full article

With the rapid development of urban underground rail transit, its enclosed and densely populated environment significantly increases fire risks, posing serious threats to personnel safety and operational stability. Based on the WSR methodology and 4M theory, this study identifies fire-related factors from the physical, operational, and human dimensions. And refine indicators at the four levels of personnel, equipment and facilities, environment, and management to establish a resilience assessment system for urban underground rail transit fires. The results detailed display the application of Cross-Influence Analysis (CIA) and analytic network process (ANP) methods in fire resilience evaluation, including theoretical framework construction, computational procedures, and result analysis. A comprehensive assessment system is developed, comprising 14 secondary indicators under four primary criteria: resistance capacity, adaptation capacity, absorption capacity, and resilience capacity. And then, the CIA and ANP methods were employed to quantify inter-indicator relationships and weights through 15 expert evaluations and 52 judgment matrices, facilitating disaster-adaptive strategy formulation. Finally, an empirical analysis of Xi’an Metro Line 1 reveals that resistance capacity and resilience capacity are critical to fire resilience, with fire cause investigation and post-incident review exhibiting the highest weights. Meanwhile, resilience enhancement strategies are proposed, including optimized monitoring equipment deployment, strengthened emergency drills, and improved personnel training. The paper innovatively integrates WSR methodology and 4M theory to establish a comprehensive, representative metro fire resilience assessment system with CIA-ANP quantification. This study provides novel methodological support for fire safety assessment in urban underground rail transit systems, offering significant theoretical and practical value. Full article

Rainfall-induced slope failures are among the most frequent and destructive natural hazards in Japan’s mountainous regions, often causing severe loss of life and damage to infrastructure. This study presents an integrated statistical framework for regional-scale landslide hazard mapping, with a focus on 0-order basins. To enhance spatial prediction accuracy, both bivariate and multivariate statistical models are employed. Bivariate models efficiently assess the relationship between individual conditioning factors and landslide occurrences but assume variable independence. Conversely, multivariate models account for multicollinearity and the combined effects of interacting factors, although they often require more complex data processing and may lack spatial clarity. To leverage the strengths of both approaches, two hybrid models were developed and applied to a 242.94 km² area in Fukuoka Prefecture, Japan. Model validation was performed using a matrix-based evaluation supported by a threshold optimization algorithm. Among the models tested, the hybrid Frequency Ratio–Logistic Regression (FR + LR) model demonstrated the highest predictive performance, achieving a success rate of 84.30%, a false alarm rate of 17.88%, and a miss rate of 12.30%. It effectively identified critical slip surfaces within zones classified as ‘High’ to ‘Very High’ susceptibility. This integrated approach offers a statistically robust, scalable, and interpretable solution for landslide hazard assessment in geomorphologically complex terrains. It provides valuable support for regional disaster risk reduction and contributes directly to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Full article

Improving tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasts is critical for enhancing disaster prevention and mitigation efforts. This study evaluates the effectiveness of the spectral nudging (SN) technique in simulating TC tracks with diverse path patterns over the Western North Pacific using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The results show that the SN technique is remarkably effective in improving tropical cyclone track forecasts for all types of regular track patterns, except for irregular tracks. Specifically, spectral nudging reduced simulated mean track position errors by approximately 60%, 67%, and 77% on average for curving, northwestward-, and westward-moving tracks, respectively. Better simulations of large-scale flow dynamics contributed to these improvements, particularly in scenarios where the subtropical high underwent rapid changes in its circulation patterns. For irregular tracks, applying the SN technique showed mixed results, ranging from 75% error reduction to 20% error increase. This implies that the effectiveness of spectral nudging on the simulation of irregular tracks is case dependent. Since the effectiveness of spectral nudging depends on the scales (spectrum) of the underlying processes creating the irregularities of the tracks, when such irregularities were caused by local and regional-scale factors, spectral nudging became ineffective. Full article

With the global climate warming, the temperature conditions in permafrost regions have changed significantly, and the stability of permafrost slopes is facing serious threats. This paper focuses on the construction of the instability mechanism and prediction model of permafrost slopes considering the influence of temperature. By analyzing the thermokarst collapse process of permafrost slopes, the characteristics and causes of stages such as the soil loosening period and the surface sloughing period were studied. Based on the Mohr–Coulomb strength criterion, combined with the simplified Bishop method and the Morgenstern–Price method, a mechanical analysis of the critical state was carried out, and a safety factor formula applicable to the critical state of permafrost slopes was derived. From the curves of the total cohesion and effective internal friction angle of the experimental soil changing with temperature, an influence model of temperature on the strength parameters was fitted. Considering the factor of freeze–thaw cycles, a safety factor model for permafrost slopes was constructed. Through a large amount of data calculation and analysis of the model, the reliability of the model was verified. This model can be used to predict slope states in practical assessments and optimize slope support structure design parameters in cold regions, providing important references for ensuring engineering safety, reducing geological disasters, and promoting sustainability in cold regions. Finally, potential mitigation measures for frozen soil slope instability based on the findings are briefly discussed. Full article

Grain storage is one of the important means of national macro-control, significantly impacting people’s livelihood and social stability. In emergencies, grain storage enhances disaster relief efficiency and victim resettlement. Currently, developing countries primarily use government storage and government–enterprise joint storage. In response to the speculative behavior caused by the profit-seeking tendencies of agent storage enterprises in the process of joint government–enterprise grain storage, this study considers the current status of digital governance reform by the government and takes the government–enterprise emergency joint grain storage mechanism as its research object. We construct an evolutionary game model between the government and agent storage enterprises, analyze the evolutionary stability of the strategy choices of the two parties, explore the impact of various factors on the strategy choices of both parties, and discuss different stable strategy combinations. Through simulation analysis of the cost–benefit systems of both sides, initial strategy probabilities, key factor sensitivity, and the impact of digital governance levels, we propose a number of management recommendations that can effectively reduce speculative behavior and provide guidance for the government to improve its emergency grain storage system. Full article

Landslide susceptibility assessment constitutes a pivotal method of preventing and reducing losses caused by geological disasters. However, traditional models are often influenced by subjective grading factors, which can result in unscientific and inaccurate assessment outcomes. In this study, we thoroughly analyze various landslide causative factors, including geological, topographical, hydrological, and environmental components. A quantitative continuous model was employed, with methods such as frequency ratio (FR), cosine amplitude (CA), information value (IV), and certainty factor (CF) being applied in order to assess the landslide susceptibility of the Wanzhou coastline in the Three Gorges Reservoir area. The results were then compared with methods such as Bias-Standardised Information Value (BSIV), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest (RF), and Gradient Boosted Decision Tree (GBDT). This process led to the following key conclusions: (1) Most landslide susceptibility zones are predominantly banded and clustered on both sides of the Dewuidu River, particularly along the left bank of the Yangtze River from Dewuidu Town to Wanzhou City, as well as in the main urban area of Wanzhou. Clusters of the Yangtze River mainstem and surrounding towns characterize these areas. (2) The enhanced statistical analysis model shows a notable increase in sensitivity to landslides, achieving an Area Under the Curve (AUC) of 0.8878 for the IV model—an improvement of 0.0639 over the traditional BSIV model. This enhancement aligns closely with machine learning capabilities, and the spatial results obtained are more continuous. (3) By substituting manual grading with a quantitative continuous model, we achieve a balance between interpretability and computational efficiency. These findings lay a scientific foundation for the prevention and management of geological disasters in Wanzhou and provide valuable insights for comparable regions undertaking landslide susceptibility assessments. Full article

In a few years, most investment firms will deploy Generative AI (GenAI) and large language models (LLMs) for reduced-cost stock trading decisions. If GenAI-run investment decisions from most firms are heavily coordinated, they could all give a “sell” signal simultaneously, triggering market crashes. Likewise, simultaneous “buy” signals from GenAI-run investment decisions could cause market bubbles with algorithmically inflated prices. In this way, coordinated actions from LLMs introduce systemic risk into the global financial system. Existing risk analysis for GenAI focuses on endogenous risk from model performance. In comparison, exogenous risk from external factors like macroeconomic changes, natural disasters, or sudden regulatory changes, is understudied. This research fills the gap by creating a framework for measuring exogenous (systemic) risk from LLMs acting in the stock trading system. This research develops a concrete, quantitative framework to understand the systemic risk brought by using GenAI in stock investment by measuring the covariance between LLM stock price predictions across three industries (technology, automobiles, and communications) produced by eight large language models developed across the United States, Europe, and China. This paper also identifies potential data-driven technical, cultural, and regulatory mechanisms for governing AI to prevent negative financial and societal consequences. Full article

Soybean (Glycine max), as an important crop for both oil and grains, is a major source of high-quality plant proteins for humans. Among various natural disasters affecting soybean production, waterlogging is one of the key factors leading to yield reduction. It can cause root rot and seedling death, and in severe cases, even total crop failure. Given the significant differences in responses to waterlogging stress among different soybean varieties, traditional single-trait indicators are insufficient to comprehensively evaluate flood tolerance. In this study, relative seedling length (RSL) was used as a comprehensive evaluation index for flood tolerance. Using a chromosome segment substitution line (CSSL) population derived from SN14 and ZYD00006, we successfully identified seven quantitative trait loci (QTLs) associated with seed waterlogging tolerance. By integrating RNA-Seq transcriptome sequencing and phenotypic data, the functions of candidate genes were systematically verified. Phenotypic analysis indicated that Suinong14 had significantly better flood tolerance than ZYD00006. Further research revealed that the Glyma.05G160800 gene showed a significantly up-regulated expression pattern in Suinong14; qPCR analysis revealed that this gene exhibits higher expression levels in submergence-tolerant varieties. Haplotype analysis demonstrated a significant correlation between different haplotypes and phenotypic traits. The QTLs identified in this study can provide a theoretical basis for future molecular-assisted breeding of flood-tolerant varieties. Additionally, the functional study of Glyma.05G161800 in regulating seed flood tolerance can offer new insights into the molecular mechanism of seed flood tolerance. These findings could accelerate the development of submergence-tolerant rice varieties, enhancing crop productivity and stability in flood-prone regions. Full article

The changing global climate and rapid urbanization make extreme rainstorm events frequent, and the flood disaster caused by rainstorm has become a prominent problem of urban public safety in China, which severely restricts the healthy and sustainable development of social economy. The weight calculation method of traditional risk assessment model is single and ignores the difference of multi-dimensional information space involved in risk analysis. This study constructs a flood risk assessment model by incorporating natural, social, and economic factors into an indicator system structured around four dimensions: hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and disaster prevention and mitigation capacity. A combination of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the entropy weight method is employed to optimize both subjective and objective weights. Taking the central urban area of Wuhan with a high flood risk as an example, based on the risk assessment values, spatial autocorrelation analysis, cluster analysis, outlier analysis, and hotspot analysis are applied to explore the spatial clustering characteristics of risks. The results show that the overall assessment level of flood hazard in central urban area of Wuhan is medium, the overall assessment level of exposure and vulnerability is low, and the overall disaster prevention and mitigation capability is medium. The overall flood risk levels in Wuchang and Jianghan are the highest, while some areas in Qingshan and Hanyang have the lowest levels. The spatial characteristics of each dimension evaluation index show obvious autocorrelation and spatial differentiation. These findings aim to provide valuable suggestions and references for reducing urban disaster risks and achieving sustainable urban development. Full article

Coal mining can cause the rupture of the overlying strata, and the energy released by large-scale fractures can therefore induce earthquake disasters, which in turn can cause more secondary disasters. In the past 50 years, countless earthquakes induced by coal mining have been reported. In this paper, the main factors relating to the mining-induced seismicity, including the mechanical properties, geometry of the space, excavation advance, and excavation rate, are investigated using both experimental and numerical methods. The sensitivity of these factors behaves differently with regard to the stress distribution and failure mode. Space geometry and excavation advances have the highest impact on the surface settlement and the failure, while the excavation rate in practical engineering projects has the least impact on the failure mode. The numerical study coincides well with the experimental observation. The result indicates that the mechanical properties given by the geological survey report can be effectively used to assess the risk of mining-induced seismicity, and the proper adjustment of the tunnel geometry can largely reduce the surface settlement and improve the safety of mining. Full article

Earthquakes, as one of the most destructive natural disasters, often cause significant casualties and severe economic losses. Accurate prediction of earthquake fatalities is of great importance for pre-disaster prevention and mitigation planning, as well as post-disaster emergency response deployment. To address the challenges of small sample sizes, high dimensionality, and strong nonlinearity in earthquake fatality prediction, this paper proposes an integrated modeling approach (PCA-IWOA-XGBoost) combining Principal Component Analysis (PCA), the Improved Whale Optimization Algorithm (IWOA), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost). The method first employs PCA to reduce the dimensionality of the influencing factor data, eliminating redundant information and improving modeling efficiency. Subsequently, the IWOA is used to intelligently optimize key hyperparameters of the XGBoost model, enhancing the prediction accuracy and stability. Using 42 major earthquake events in China from 1970 to 2025 as a case study, covering regions including the west (e.g., Tonghai in Yunnan, Wenchuan, Jiuzhaigou), central (e.g., Lushan in Sichuan, Ya’an), east (e.g., Tangshan, Yingkou), north (e.g., Baotou in Inner Mongolia, Helinger), northwest (e.g., Jiashi in Xinjiang, Wushi, Yongdeng in Gansu), and southwest (e.g., Lancang in Yunnan, Lijiang, Ludian), the empirical results showed that the PCA-IWOA-XGBoost model achieved an average test set accuracy of 97.0%, a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.996, a root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) reduced to 4.410 and 3.430, respectively, and a residual prediction deviation (RPD) of 21.090. These results significantly outperformed the baseline XGBoost, PCA-XGBoost, and IWOA-XGBoost models, providing improved technical support for earthquake disaster risk assessment and emergency response. Full article