Search Results (2,477)

This study assesses future agricultural drought risk in the Ganjiang River Basin under climate change and land use change. A coupled analysis framework was established using the SWAT hydrological model, the CMIP6 climate models (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5), and the PLUS land use simulation model. Key methods included the Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSMI), travel time theory for drought event identification and duration analysis, Mann–Kendall trend test, and the Pettitt change-point test to examine soil moisture dynamics from 2027 to 2100. The results indicate that the CMIP6 ensemble performs excellently in temperature simulations, with a correlation coefficient of R² = 0.89 and a root mean square error of RMSE = 1.2 °C, compared to the observational data. The MMM-Best model also performs well in precipitation simulations, with R² = 0.82 and RMSE = 15.3 mm, compared to observational data. Land use changes between 2000 and 2020 showed a decrease in forestland (−3.2%), grassland (−2.8%), and construction land (−1.5%), with an increase in water (4.8%) and unused land (2.7%). Under all emission scenarios, the SSMI values fluctuate with standard deviations of 0.85 (SSP1-2.6), 1.12 (SSP2-4.5), and 1.34 (SSP5-8.5), with the strongest drought intensity observed under SSP5-8.5 (minimum SSMI = −2.8). Drought events exhibited spatial and temporal heterogeneity across scenarios, with drought-affected areas ranging from 25% (SSP1-2.6) to 45% (SSP5-8.5) of the basin. Notably, abrupt changes in soil moisture under SSP5-8.5 occurred earlier (2045–2050) due to intensified land use change, indicating strong human influence on hydrological cycles. This study integrated the CMIP6 climate projections with high-resolution human activity data to advance drought risk assessment methods. It established a framework for assessing agricultural drought risk at the regional scale that comprehensively considers climate and human influences, providing targeted guidance for the formulation of adaptive water resource and land management strategies. Full article

In the past three decades, localized research has highlighted shifts in rainfall patterns and temperature trends in central Ethiopia, a region vital for agriculture and economic activities and heavily dependent on climate conditions to sustain livelihoods and ensure food security. However, comprehensive analyses of long-term climate data remain limited for this area. Understanding local climate trends is essential for enhancing agricultural resilience in the study area, a region heavily dependent on rainfall for crop production. This study analyzes historical rainfall and temperature patterns over the past 30 years and projects future climate conditions using downscaled CMIP6 models under SSP4.5 and SSP8.5 scenarios. Results indicate spatial variability in rainfall trends, with certain areas showing increasing rainfall while others experience declines. Temperature has shown a consistent upward trend across all seasons, with more pronounced warming during the short rainy season (Belg). Climate projections suggest continued warming and moderate increases in annual rainfall, particularly under SSP8.5 by the end of the 21st century. It is concluded that both temperature and rainfall are projected to increase in magnitude by 2080, with higher Sen’s slope values compared to earlier periods, indicating a continued upward trend. These findings highlight potential breaks in agricultural calendars, such as shifts in rainfall onset and cessation, shortened or extended growing seasons, and increased risk of temperature-induced stress. This study highlights the need for localized adaptation strategies to safeguard agriculture production and enhance resilience in the face of future climate variability. Full article

In the context of worsening climate change and biodiversity loss, forest carbon offset projects are viewed as important nature-based solutions to mitigate these trends. However, there is limited evidence on whether these projects provide net benefits for biodiversity conservation. This study uses a staggered difference-in-differences model with balanced panel data from 128 counties in Sichuan Province, China, spanning from 2000 to 2020, to examine whether these projects bring biodiversity conservation co-benefits. The results show that the implementation of forest carbon offset projects leads to a 55.1% decrease in the ecosystem service value of forest biodiversity, with the negative impact particularly pronounced in areas facing agricultural land use and livestock pressures. The dynamic effect tests indicate that the benefits of biodiversity conservation generally begin to decline significantly 5 years after project implementation. Additional analyses show that although projects certified under biodiversity conservation standards also exhibit negative effects, the magnitude of decline is substantially smaller compared to uncertified projects, and certified projects achieve greater carbon stock gains. Heterogeneity analysis demonstrates that projects employing native tree species show significant positive effects. Moreover, spatial econometric results demonstrate significant negative spillover effects within an 80 km radius surrounding the project sites, with the effect attenuating over distance. To maximize the potential of forest carbon offset projects in addressing both climate change and biodiversity loss, it is important to mitigate the negative impacts on biodiversity within and beyond project boundaries and to enhance the continuous monitoring of projects that have been certified for biodiversity conservation. Full article

Based on a comprehensive review of the current research status of ecological compensation both domestically and internationally, combined with field survey data, this study delves into the issue of multi-stakeholder participation in the ecological compensation mechanisms of the Xin’an River Basin. This research reveals that the joint participation of multiple stakeholders is crucial to achieving the goals of ecological compensation in river basins. The government plays a significant role in macro-guidance, financial support, policy guarantees, supervision, and management. It promotes the comprehensive implementation of ecological environmental protection by formulating relevant laws and regulations, guiding the public to participate in ecological conservation, and supervising and punishing pollution behaviors. The public, serving as the main force, forms strong awareness and behavioral habits of ecological protection through active participation in environmental protection, monitoring, and feedback. As participants, enterprises contribute to industrial transformation and green development by improving resource utilization efficiency, reducing pollution emissions, promoting green industries, and participating in ecological restoration projects. Scientific research institutions, as technology enablers, have effectively enhanced governance efficiency through technological research and innovation, ecosystem value accounting to provide decision-making support, and public education. Social organizations, as facilitators, have injected vitality and innovation into watershed governance by extensively mobilizing social forces and building multi-party collaboration platforms. Communities, as supporters, have transformed ecological value into economic benefits by developing characteristic industries such as eco-agriculture and eco-tourism. Based on the above findings, further recommendations are proposed to mobilize the enthusiasm of upstream communities and encourage their participation in ecological compensation, promote the market-oriented operation of ecological compensation mechanisms, strengthen cross-regional cooperation to establish joint mechanisms, enhance supervision and evaluation, and establish a sound benefit-sharing mechanism. These recommendations provide theoretical support and practical references for ecological compensation worldwide. Full article

Healthy soils are an essential ingredient of land systems and ongoing global change. Urbanization as a global change process often works through the lens of urban planning, which involves urban agriculture, urban greening, and leveraging nature-based solutions to promote resilient cities. Yet, urbanization frequently leads to soil erosion. Despite recognition of this tension, the rate at which the urban growth boundary accelerates soil erosion above natural background levels has not yet been determined. Our goal here is to provide a first broad estimate of urbanization’s impact of soil erosion. By combining data on modern erosion levels with techniques for estimating long-term natural erosion rates through cosmogenic nuclide ¹⁰Be analysis, we modeled the impact of urbanization on erosion across a range of cities in different global climates, revealing an acceleration of soil erosion ~7–19x in environments with mean annual precipitation <1500 mm; growth in wetter urban centers accelerated soil erosion ~23–72x. We tested our statistical model by comparing natural erosion rates to decades of monitoring soil erosion on the margins of Phoenix, USA. A century-long expansion of Phoenix accelerated soil erosion by ~12x, an estimate that is roughly at the mid-point of model projections for drier global cities. In addition to urban planning implications of being able to establish a baseline target of natural rates of soil erosion, our findings support the urban cycle of soil erosion theory for the two USA National Science Foundation urban long-term ecological research areas of Baltimore and Phoenix. Full article

Biochar, a carbon-rich material derived from biomass, presents a sustainable solution to several pressing challenges in U.S. agriculture, including soil degradation, carbon emissions, and waste management. Despite global advancements, the U.S. biochar market remains underexplored in terms of economic viability, adoption potential, and sector-specific applications. This narrative review synthesizes two decades of literature to examine biochar’s applications, production methods, and market dynamics, with a focus on its economic and environmental role within the United States. The review identifies biochar’s multifunctional benefits: enhancing soil fertility and crop productivity, sequestering carbon, reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and improving water quality. Recent empirical studies also highlight biochar’s economic feasibility across global contexts, with yield increases of up to 294% and net returns exceeding USD 5000 per hectare in optimized systems. Economically, the global biochar market grew from USD 156.4 million in 2021 to USD 610.3 million in 2023, with U.S. production reaching ~50,000 metric tons annually and a market value of USD 203.4 million in 2022. Forecasts project U.S. market growth at a CAGR of 11.3%, reaching USD 478.5 million by 2030. California leads domestic adoption due to favorable policy and biomass availability. However, barriers such as inconsistent quality standards, limited awareness, high costs, and policy gaps constrain growth. This study goes beyond the existing literature by integrating market analysis, SWOT assessment, cost–benefit findings, and production technologies to highlight strategies for scaling biochar adoption. It concludes that with supportive legislation, investment in research, and enhanced supply chain transparency, biochar could become a pivotal tool for sustainable development in the U.S. agricultural and environmental sectors. Full article

A shallow quaternary sedimentary aquifer within the river alluvial deposits of eastern Uzbekistan is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities. Despite its essential role in supplying water for domestic, agricultural, and industrial purposes, the aquifer system remains poorly understood. This study employed a three-dimensional MODFLOW-based groundwater flow model to assess climate change impacts on water budget components under the SSP5-8.5 scenario for 2020–2099. Model calibration yielded RMSE values between 0.25 and 0.51 m, indicating satisfactory performance. Simulations revealed that lateral inflows from upstream and side-valley alluvial deposits contribute over 84% of total inflow, while direct recharge from precipitation (averaging 120 mm/year, 24.7% of annual rainfall) and riverbed leakage together account for only 11.4%. Recharge occurs predominantly from November to April, with no recharge from June to August. Under future scenarios, winter recharge may increase by up to 22.7%, while summer recharge could decline by up to 100%. Groundwater storage is projected to decrease by 7.3% to 58.3% compared to 2010–2020, indicating the aquifer’s vulnerability to prolonged dry periods. These findings emphasize the urgent need for adaptive water management strategies and long-term monitoring to ensure sustainable groundwater use under changing climate conditions. Full article

The integration of artificial intelligence into sustainable agriculture holds significant potential to transform traditional agricultural practices. This transformation of agricultural practices through AI directly intersects with several critical sustainable development goals, such as Climate Action (SDG13), Life Below Water (SDG 14), and Life on Land (SDG 15). However, such implementations are fraught with multifaceted challenges. This study explores the technological, organizational, and environmental challenges confronting top management in the agricultural sector utilizing the technological–organizational–environmental framework. As interest in AI-enabled sustainable initiatives continues to rise globally, this exploration is timely and relevant. The study employs an interpretive case study approach, drawing insights from a carbon sequestration project within the agricultural sector where AI technologies have been integrated to support sustainability goals. The findings reveal six key challenges: sustainable policy inconsistency, AI experts lacking farming knowledge, farmers’ resistance to change, limited knowledge and expertise to deploy AI, missing links in the existing system, and transition costs, which often hinder the achievement of long-term sustainability outcomes. This study emphasizes the importance of field realities and cross-disciplinary collaboration to optimize the role of AI in sustainability efforts. Full article

Organic farming represents a paradigm that emphasises a balance between production and environmental sustainability. In the European Union (EU), organic farming has evolved into a global production system with harmonised standards and increasing market demand. Compared with conventional agriculture, it produces greater environmental benefits. The European Green Deal and the Farm to Fork (F2F) strategy highlight the role of organic farming in achieving the EU’s climate and environmental goals, aiming to use at least 25% of the total agricultural area for organic farming by 2030. This research assesses the contributions of Member States towards achieving the objectives of the European Green Deal and F2F strategy and increasing the number of organic farming areas in the future. The research assessed the performance of EU Member States during the period of 2018–2022 and for the projected period up to 2030, using indicators outlined in the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) Strategic Plan. EU Member States were classified by their historical growth in organic farming areas and their required future performance to meet targets. The results showed that the increase in organic farming areas across the EU is a sign of a shift towards more sustainable farming, although performance varied among Member States. Overall, performance tended to improve in seventeen Member States, remained stable in nine, and declined in only one. Full article

The worldwide agriculture industry is facing increasing problems due to rapid population increase and increasingly unfavorable weather patterns. In order to reach the projected food production targets, which are essential for guaranteeing global food security, innovative and sustainable agricultural methods must be adopted. Conventional approaches, including traditional breeding procedures, often cannot handle the complex and simultaneous effects of biotic pressures such as pest infestations, disease attacks, and nutritional imbalances, as well as abiotic stresses including heat, salt, drought, and heavy metal toxicity. Applying phytohormonal approaches, particularly those involving hormonal crosstalk, presents a viable way to increase crop resilience in this context. Abscisic acid (ABA), gibberellins (GAs), auxin, cytokinins, salicylic acid (SA), jasmonic acid (JA), ethylene, and GA are among the plant hormones that control plant stress responses. In order to precisely respond to a range of environmental stimuli, these hormones allow plants to control gene expression, signal transduction, and physiological adaptation through intricate networks of antagonistic and constructive interactions. This review focuses on how the principal hormonal signaling pathways (in particular, ABA-ET, ABA-JA, JA-SA, and ABA-auxin) intricately interact and how they affect the plant stress response. For example, ABA-driven drought tolerance controls immunological responses and stomatal behavior through antagonistic interactions with ET and SA, while using SnRK2 kinases to activate genes that react to stress. Similarly, the transcription factor MYC2 is an essential node in ABA–JA crosstalk and mediates the integration of defense and drought signals. Plants’ complex hormonal crosstalk networks are an example of a precisely calibrated regulatory system that strikes a balance between growth and abiotic stress adaptation. ABA, JA, SA, ethylene, auxin, cytokinin, GA, and BR are examples of central nodes that interact dynamically and context-specifically to modify signal transduction, rewire gene expression, and change physiological outcomes. To engineer stress-resilient crops in the face of shifting environmental challenges, a systems-level view of these pathways is provided by a combination of enrichment analyses and STRING-based interaction mapping. These hormonal interactions are directly related to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly SDGs 2 (Zero Hunger), 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production), and 13 (Climate Action). This review emphasizes the potential of biotechnologies to use hormone signaling to improve agricultural performance and sustainability by uncovering the molecular foundations of hormonal crosstalk. Increasing our understanding of these pathways presents a strategic opportunity to increase crop resilience, reduce environmental degradation, and secure food systems in the face of increasing climate unpredictability. Full article

To promote high-quality agricultural development and implement the “storing grain in the land” strategy, the construction of Well-Facilitated Farmland (WFF) plays a critical role in enhancing grain production capacity and optimizing the spatial distribution of food supply, thereby contributing to national food security. However, accurately assessing the potential impact of WFF construction on China’s grain production and regional self-sufficiency by 2030 remains a significant challenge. Existing studies predominantly focus on the provincial level, while fine-grained analyses at the city level are still lacking. This study quantifies the potential increase in grain production in China under the 2030 WFF construction target by employing effect size analysis, multi-weight prediction, and Monte Carlo simulation across multiple spatial scales (national, provincial, and city levels), thereby addressing the research gap at finer spatial resolutions. By integrating 2030 population projections and applying a grain self-sufficiency calculation formula, it further evaluates the contribution of WFF to regional grain self-sufficiency: (1) WFF could generate an additional 31–48 million tons of grain, representing a 5.26–8.25% increase; (2) grain supply in major crop-producing regions would expand, while the supply–demand gap in balanced regions would narrow; and (3) the number of cities with grain self-sufficiency ratios below 50% would decrease by 11.1%, while those exceeding 200% would increase by 25.5%. These findings indicate that WFF construction not only enhances overall grain production potential but also facilitates a transition from “overall supply-demand balance” to “structural security” within China’s food system. This study provides critical data support and policy insights for building a more resilient and regionally adaptive agricultural system. Full article

Population growth and land use change often have significant environmental impacts, affecting biodiversity, water supply, agricultural production, and other resources. Future scenario models can provide a better understanding of these changes, helping planners and the public understand the consequences of choices regarding development density, land use, and conservation. This study presents a model that has been used to identify alternative future scenarios for Florida considering future population growth and land use. It includes two scenarios: a “Sprawl” scenario reflecting a continuation of current development patterns and a “Conservation” scenario with higher densities, redevelopment, and more land protection. The study incorporates sea level rise scenarios for both 2040 and 2070. Results show that the Sprawl scenario could lead to 3.5 million acres of new developed land and 1.8 million acres of lost agricultural land by 2070 in Florida. In contrast, the Conservation scenario for 2070 results in 1.3 million fewer acres of developed land and 5 million more acres of protected natural land, showing that it is possible to accommodate future population growth while reducing impacts to agricultural and conservation priorities in Florida. Although this is by no means a “prediction” of future Florida, it has been useful as a tool for evaluating potential future land use scenarios and is a model that may be more broadly applied by other locations and users. Full article

Exploring the evolution of ecosystem services value (ESV) and its drivers is pivotal for optimizing the land-use structure and improving the value of ecosystem services. Using the 1980–2020 land-use/land-cover (LULC) dataset of the Mu Us Sandy Land, this study quantitatively evaluated ESV through LULC change, analyzing the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of ESV and its driving forces. The results showed that (1) the LULC changes were stable from 1980 to 2020, and the ESV showed a slight downward trend in general. Grassland and water ecosystem services predominantly influenced ecosystem service function value fluctuations across the study area. (2) ESV demonstrated strong positive spatial autocorrelation, with high-value areas concentrated primarily in Red Alkali Nur, Dawa Nur, Batu Bay, and Ulanmulun Lake and low-value areas mainly distributed in unused land and certain agricultural zones. (3) The land-use degree and human activity intensity index were the main factors leading to the differentiation of ESV. The synergistic effects of human activities, landscape pattern changes, and natural factors led to the spatial differentiation of ESV in the study area. Beyond artificial ecological restoration projects, policies for ecosystem service management should pay more attention to the role of geodiversity in service provision. Full article

Quantifying future changes in extreme events and associated flooding is challenging yet fundamental for stormwater managers. Along the U.S. Atlantic Coast, Eastern North Carolina (ENC) is frequently exposed to catastrophic floods from extreme rainfall that is typically associated with tropical cyclones. This study presents a novel approach that uses rainfall data from five dynamically and statistically downscaled (DD and SD) global climate models under two scenarios to visualize a potential future extent of flooding in ENC. Here, we use DD data (at 36-km grid spacing) to compute future changes in precipitation intensity–duration–frequency (PIDF) curves at the end of the 21st century. These PIDF curves are further applied to observed rainfall from Hurricane Matthew—a landfalling storm that created widespread flooding across ENC in 2016—to project versions of “Matthew 2100” that reflect changes in extreme precipitation under those scenarios. Each Matthew-2100 rainfall distribution was then used in hydrologic models (HEC-HMS and HEC-RAS) to simulate “2100” discharges and flooding extents in the Neuse River Basin (4686 km²) in ENC. The results show that DD datasets better represented historical changes in extreme rainfall than SD datasets. The projected changes in ENC rainfall (up to 112%) exceed values published for the U.S. but do not exceed historical values. The peak discharges for Matthew-2100 could increase by 23–69%, with 0.4–3 m increases in water surface elevation and 8–57% increases in flooded area. The projected increases in flooding would threaten people, ecosystems, agriculture, infrastructure, and the economy throughout ENC. Full article

Drylands cover approximately 41% of Earth’s land surface, supporting about 500 million people and 45% of global agriculture. Groundwater is essential in drylands and is crucial for maintaining ecosystem services and offering numerous benefits. This article, for the first time, analyses and valuates the hydrological ecosystem services (HESs) provided by groundwater in a region of the Colorado River Delta in Mexico, an area with uncertain economic impact due to water scarcity. The main water sources are the Colorado River and groundwater from the Mexicali and San Luis Rio Colorado valley aquifers, both of which are overexploited. Valuation techniques include surrogate and simulated market methods for agricultural, industrial, urban, and domestic uses, the shadow project approach for water conservation and purification cost avoidance, and the contingent valuation method for recreation. Data from 2013 to 2015 and 2020 were used as they are the most reliable sources available. The annual value of HESs provided by groundwater was USD 883,520 million, with water conservation being a key factor. The analyzed groundwater uses reflect differences in efficiency and economic value, providing key information for decisions on governance, allocation, conservation, and revaluation of water resources. These results suggest reorienting crops, establishing differentiated rates, and promoting payment for environmental services programs. Full article