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Keywords = YSU (Yonsei University) scheme

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27 pages, 33143 KB  
Article
Contrasting Local and Non-Local PBL Closures in the Turbulence Grey Zone: A Case Study of Convection-Permitting Dryline Simulations
by Duanjun Lu and Loren D. White
Atmosphere 2026, 17(9), 825; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos17090825 - 26 Aug 2026
Abstract
Accurately simulating convective initiation (CI) in capped High Plains dryline environments remains a significant challenge for convection-permitting numerical weather prediction. As a follow-up work to Lu and White, this study utilizes the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) at a 3 km grid [...] Read more.
Accurately simulating convective initiation (CI) in capped High Plains dryline environments remains a significant challenge for convection-permitting numerical weather prediction. As a follow-up work to Lu and White, this study utilizes the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) at a 3 km grid resolution to evaluate the sensitivity of dryline morphology and CI to two planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization schemes: the non-local Yonsei University (YSU) and the local Mellor-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino (MYNN) frameworks. Radar observations and simulated maximum reflectivity show that while the YSU scheme successfully replicates the timing and spatial development of convective cores triggered along the elevated terrain slope at 21:30 UTC, the MYNN scheme completely suppresses deep convection throughout the study period. Vertical thermodynamic profiles indicate that YSU establishes a deeply mixed boundary layer that weakens the regional capping inversion, enabling surface parcels to break the stable lid and reach their level of free convection (LFC). Conversely, the MYNN scheme confines moisture to a thin layer near the surface beneath an unyielding temperature inversion, preventing parcels from achieving free buoyancy. For the 3 km “grey zone” of turbulence resolution, both PBL schemes successfully resolve horizontal convective rolls (HCRs) near the primary dryline boundary. YSU’s non-local mixing permits these HCR perturbations to couple vertically into deep, cap-breaching updraft plumes, while MYNN’s local turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) closure traps them as shallow horizontal waves. It was shown that the MYNN failure is driven by an intrusive synoptic wind bias, generating anomaly wind velocities of 24–28 m/s throughout the column. These winds act as a mechanical sweeper across the terrain slope which shears, flattens, and dilutes the moisture pool below 2000 m Mean Sea Level (MSL) and physically reduces fuel from the western initiation zone. In contrast, the YSU scheme maintains a well-regulated, moderate wind profile (8–12 m/s aloft), preserving a state of mesoscale equilibrium that allows moisture to ascend the terrain slope and continuously feed developing convective cells. Our findings demonstrate that the choice of PBL parameterization plays significant role in not only local vertical mixing but also the structural translation of macroscale synoptic forcing versus localized thermodynamic regulation in complex terrain. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Meteorology)
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28 pages, 6509 KB  
Article
Estimates of Ocean–Atmosphere Heat Fluxes in the Tropical Atlantic from Different Bulk Parameterization Schemes Used Operationally in Brazil
by Letícia Stachelski, Ronald Buss de Souza, Gilberto Fisch, Regiane Moura, Breno Tramontini Steffen and Luciano Ponzi Pezzi
Meteorology 2026, 5(2), 14; https://doi.org/10.3390/meteorology5020014 - 6 Jun 2026
Viewed by 694
Abstract
The ocean–atmosphere turbulent heat exchange plays a critical role in the energy and moisture budgets of the Tropical Atlantic Ocean (TAO) and in weather and climate forecasts. However, its estimation strongly depends on the choice of bulk parameterization, as direct in situ measurements [...] Read more.
The ocean–atmosphere turbulent heat exchange plays a critical role in the energy and moisture budgets of the Tropical Atlantic Ocean (TAO) and in weather and climate forecasts. However, its estimation strongly depends on the choice of bulk parameterization, as direct in situ measurements are sparse. This study evaluates sensible (Hs) and latent (Hl) heat fluxes derived from three bulk parameterization schemes used operationally in models at the Brazilian Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies (CPTEC) of the National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Brazil: the Brazilian Atmospheric Model (BAM), the Modular Ocean Model version 6 (MOM6), and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Using daily in situ observations from seven Prediction and Research Moored Array in the Tropical Atlantic (PIRATA) buoys across the TAO during 1997–2023, we computed monthly mean fluxes and compared them against the Coupled Ocean–atmosphere Response Experiment (COARE) algorithm version 3.0b (COARE 3.0b) reference. COARE version 3.6 (COARE 3.6) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) Reanalysis 5th generation (ERA5) data were included as additional benchmarks. All offline schemes were forced with identical buoy data, isolating differences in internal physical assumptions. Hl is approximately one order of magnitude larger than Hs across all sites, and inter-scheme differences are substantially larger for Hl (±50 W∙m−2) than for Hs (±5 W∙m−2). All schemes reproduce the seasonal cycle linked to the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) migration and trade-wind variability, with correlations generally exceeding 0.8 (p < 0.001) for most buoys. However, systematic magnitude biases remain. The Coordinated Ocean Research Experiments (CORE) bulk formulation implemented in MOM6 (MOM6-CORE) shows high temporal correlation (often r ≈ 1.0) but a persistent negative bias for both Hs and Hl (e.g., B1 Hl bias = −24.0 W∙m−2), indicating weaker turbulent exchange relative to COARE 3.0b. BAM overestimates Hs (by 1–3 W∙m−2) and underestimates Hl at most northern and southern sites, while the parametrization of the Yonsei University (YSU) implemented in the WRF model (WRF-YSU) amplifies Hs variability intermittently, particularly at the equator (B4). As expected, COARE 3.6 remains the closest to the reference (differences < 1 W∙m−2 for Hs and <7 W∙m−2 for Hl; r ≈ 0.99). ERA5 captures temporal variability well (r ≈ 0.7–0.9) but systematically overestimates Hl (positive bias up to +47.6 W∙m−2 at B7), implying stronger evaporative cooling. Buoy-specific regimes modulate skill. The choice of bulk formulation thus remains a first-order source of uncertainty in turbulent heat flux estimates over the TAO, with direct implications for mixed-layer heat budgets, SST evolution, and coupled ocean–atmosphere variability. MOM6-CORE provides the most consistent performance relative to the COARE reference and emerges as the most robust option for operational applications at CPTEC/INPE. The findings also provide guidance for improving the representation of ocean–atmosphere turbulent exchanges in MONAN (Model for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Prediction), the new Brazilian Earth System Model under development for weather and climate prediction. Full article
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18 pages, 13473 KB  
Article
Evaluation of PBL Schemes in Weather Research and Forecasting Model Simulations of Downslope Windstorm over Modest Terrain in Southern Brazil
by Mateus Rebelo, Michel Stefanello, Daniel C. Santos, Richard Lobato, Tamires Zimmer, Murilo Lopes, Cinara E. da Rosa, Alecsander Mergen, Ernani de Lima Nascimento, Gervasio Degrazia, Debora Roberti and Rafael Maroneze
Atmosphere 2026, 17(6), 550; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos17060550 - 28 May 2026
Viewed by 1148
Abstract
Vento Norte (VNOR; Portuguese for North Wind) is a downslope windstorm that develops over modest terrain in the central region of Rio Grande do Sul (RS), southern Brazil. The regional topography is characterized by an abrupt terrain transition with elevation differences of approximately [...] Read more.
Vento Norte (VNOR; Portuguese for North Wind) is a downslope windstorm that develops over modest terrain in the central region of Rio Grande do Sul (RS), southern Brazil. The regional topography is characterized by an abrupt terrain transition with elevation differences of approximately 400–500 m. This atmospheric flow typically occurs during the cold season and is characterized by strong wind gusts, rapid warming, and drying of the planetary boundary layer (PBL). In this study, the performance of different PBL parameterization schemes in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is assessed for simulating a VNOR event that occurred between 19 and 20 August 2021 in Santa Maria (SMA), RS. Five high-resolution numerical simulations were conducted using the Yonsei University (YSU), Asymmetric Convective Model version 2 (ACM2), Mellor–Yamada–Nakanishi–Niino level 2.5 (MYNN2.5), Quasi-Normal Scale Elimination (QNSE), and Three-Dimensional Turbulent Kinetic Energy (3DTKE) PBL schemes. Model results were evaluated against observations from a flux tower providing turbulence measurements, twice-daily radiosoundings, and hourly surface meteorological observations. Statistical metrics indicate that the MYNN2.5 scheme provided the most accurate representation of the nighttime stable boundary layer preceding the VNOR, as well as its onset and subsequent evolution. Although this study analyzes a single VNOR event and the results may be case-dependent, the overall performance of the MYNN2.5 scheme suggests that it is a promising option for the operational forecasting of VNOR events. These findings provide new insights into the ability of different PBL schemes to reproduce the mean boundary-layer structure and turbulence characteristics associated with downslope windstorms over modest terrain, contributing to the understanding of these events. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Observations, Modeling, and Theory of the Atmospheric Boundary Layer)
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24 pages, 7022 KB  
Article
Evaluation of the Sensitivity of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model to Changes in Physical Parameterizations During a Torrential Precipitation Event of the El Niño Costero 2017 in Peru
by Alejandro Sánchez Oliva, Matilde García-Valdecasas Ojeda and Raúl Arasa Agudo
Water 2025, 17(2), 209; https://doi.org/10.3390/w17020209 - 14 Jan 2025
Cited by 4 | Viewed by 2534
Abstract
This study evaluates the sensitivity of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model in its version 4.3.3 during different experiments on a torrential precipitation event associated with the 2017 El Niño Costero in Peru. The results are compared with two reference datasets: precipitation [...] Read more.
This study evaluates the sensitivity of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model in its version 4.3.3 during different experiments on a torrential precipitation event associated with the 2017 El Niño Costero in Peru. The results are compared with two reference datasets: precipitation estimations from CHIRPS satellite data and SENAMHI meteorological station values. The event, which had significant economic and social impacts, is simulated using two nested domains with resolutions of 9 km (d01) and 3 km (d02). A total of 22 experiments are conducted, resulting from the combination of two planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes: Yonsei University (YSU) and Mellor–Yamada–Janjic (MYJ), with five cumulus parameterization schemes: Betts–Miller–Janjic (BMJ), Grell–Devenyi (GD), Grell–Freitas (GF), Kain–Fritsch (KF), and New Tiedtke (NT). Additionally, the effect of turning off cumulus parameterization in the inner domain (d02) or in both (d01 and d02) is explored. The results show that the YSU scheme generally provides better results than the MYJ scheme in detecting the precipitation patterns observed during the event. Furthermore, it is concluded that turning off cumulus parameterization in both domains produces satisfactory results for certain regions when it is combined with the YSU PBL scheme. However, the KF cumulus parameterization is considered the most effective for intense precipitation events in this region, although it tends to overestimate precipitation in high mountain areas. In contrast, for lighter rains, combinations of the YSU PBL scheme with the GD or NT parameterization show a superior performance. It is worth nothing that for all experiments here used, there is a clear underestimation in terms of precipitation, except in high mountain regions, where the model tends to overestimate rainfall. Full article
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24 pages, 20771 KB  
Article
Overestimated Fog-Top Entrainment in WRF Simulation Leading to Unrealistic Dissipation of Sea Fog: A Case Study
by Li Zhang, Hao Shi, Shanhong Gao and Shun Li
Remote Sens. 2024, 16(10), 1656; https://doi.org/10.3390/rs16101656 - 7 May 2024
Cited by 5 | Viewed by 3383
Abstract
Entrainment at the top of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) is of significant importance because it controls the upward growth of the PBL height. An option called ysu_topdown_pblmix, which provides a parameterization of fog-top entrainment, has been proposed for valley fog modeling and [...] Read more.
Entrainment at the top of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) is of significant importance because it controls the upward growth of the PBL height. An option called ysu_topdown_pblmix, which provides a parameterization of fog-top entrainment, has been proposed for valley fog modeling and introduced into the YSU (Yonsei University) PBL scheme in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. However, enabling this option in simulations of sea fog over the Yellow Sea typically results in unrealistic dissipation near the fog bottom and even within the entire fog layer. In this study, we theoretically examine the composition of the option ysu_topdown_pblmix, and then argue that one term in this option might be redundant for sea-fog modeling. The fog-top variables are employed in this term to determine the basic entrainment in the dry PBL, which is already parameterized by the surface variables in the original YSU PBL scheme. This term likely leads to an overestimation of the fog-top entrainment rate, so we refer to it as redundant. To explore the connection between the redundant term and unrealistic dissipation, a widespread sea-fog episode over the Yellow Sea is employed as a case study based on the WRF model. The simulation results clearly attribute the unrealistic dissipation to the extra entrainment rate that the redundant term induces. Fog-top entrainment is unexpectedly overestimated due to this extra entrainment rate, resulting in a significantly drier and warmer bias within the interior of sea fog. When sea fog develops and reaches a temperature lower than the sea surface, the sea surface functions as a warming source to heat the fog bottom jointly with the downward heat flux brought by the fog-top entrainment, leading the dissipation to initially occur near the fog bottom and then gradually expand upwards. We suggest a straightforward method to modify the option ysu_topdown_pblmix for sea-fog modeling that eliminates the redundant term. The improvement effect of this method was supported by the results of sensitivity tests. However, more sea-fog cases are required to validate the modification method. Full article
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17 pages, 10055 KB  
Article
Simulating the Wind Energy Distribution in the Coastal Hilly Area of the Jiaodong Peninsula Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model
by Yunhai Song, Sen He, Zhenzhen Zhou, Liwei Wang, Yufeng Yang, Zheng Li and Zhiqiu Gao
Atmosphere 2024, 15(1), 101; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15010101 - 13 Jan 2024
Viewed by 2198
Abstract
This study simulated the wind energy density distribution in the Jiaodong Peninsula region using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. The impacts of different boundary-layer and near-surface parameterization schemes on the simulated wind speed and direction were investigated. The results indicate that [...] Read more.
This study simulated the wind energy density distribution in the Jiaodong Peninsula region using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. The impacts of different boundary-layer and near-surface parameterization schemes on the simulated wind speed and direction were investigated. The results indicate that the Yonsei University (YSU) scheme and the Quasi-Normal Scale Elimination (QNSE) scheme performed optimally for wind speed and wind direction. We also conducted a sensitivity test of the simulation results for atmospheric pressure, air temperature, and relative humidity. The statistical analysis showed that the YSU scheme performed optimally, while the MRF and BL schemes performed poorly. Following this, the wind energy distribution in the coastal hilly areas of the Jiaodong Peninsula was simulated using the YSU boundary-layer parameterization scheme. The modeled wind energy density in the mountainous and hilly areas of the Jiaodong Peninsula were higher than that in other regions. The wind energy density exhibits a seasonal variation, with the highest values in spring and early summer and the lowest in summer. In spring, the wind energy density over the Bohai Sea is higher than over the Yellow Sea, while the opposite trend is modeled in summer. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Land Surface Processes: Modeling and Observation)
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22 pages, 7049 KB  
Article
Simulating Meteorological and Water Wave Characteristics of Cyclone Shaheen
by Mohsen Rahimian, Mostafa Beyramzadeh, Seyed Mostafa Siadatmousavi and Mohammad Nabi Allahdadi
Atmosphere 2023, 14(3), 533; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14030533 - 10 Mar 2023
Cited by 7 | Viewed by 3512
Abstract
The Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea are annually exposed to severe tropical cyclones, which impose massive infrastructure damages and cause the loss of life in coastal regions. Cyclone Shaheen originally generated in the Bay of Bengal in 2021 and translated a rare [...] Read more.
The Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea are annually exposed to severe tropical cyclones, which impose massive infrastructure damages and cause the loss of life in coastal regions. Cyclone Shaheen originally generated in the Bay of Bengal in 2021 and translated a rare east-to-west path toward the Arabian Sea. Although the cyclone’s wind field can be obtained from reanalysis datasets such as ERA5 (fifth generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts), the wind speed cannot be reproduced with realistic details in the regions close to the center of cyclone due to spatial resolution. In this study, to address this problem, the high-resolution advanced Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used for simulation of Shaheen’s wind field. As a critical part of the study, the sensitivity of the results to the planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization in terms of the track, intensity, strength and structure of the cyclone Shaheen is investigated. Five experiments are considered with five PBL schemes: Yonsei University (YSU); Mellor–Yamada–Janjić (MYJ); Mellor–Yamada–Nakanishi–Niino level 2.5 (MYNN); Asymmetric Convective Model version 2 (ACM2); Quasi-Normal Scale Elimination (QNSE). The track, intensity, and strength of the experiments are compared with the wind fields obtained from the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC) dataset. The results imply the high dependency of the track, intensity, and strength of the cyclone to the PBL parameterization. Simulated tracks with non-local PBL schemes (YSU and ACM2) outperformed those of the local PBL schemes (MYJ, MYNN, and QNSE), especially during the rapid intensification phase of Shaheen before landfall. The YSU produced highly intensified storm, while the ACM2 results are in better agreement with the JTWC data. The most accurate track was obtained from the ERA5 data; however, this dataset overestimated the spatial size and underestimated the wind speed. The WRF model using either YSU or ACM2 overestimated the wind speed compared to that of the altimeter data. The YSU and ACM2 schemes were able to reproduce the observed increase in wind speed and pressure drop at in situ stations. The wind data from EAR5 and cyclone parametric model were applied to the SWAN model to simulate the wave regime in the Arabian Sea during the time that Shaheen was translating across the region. Janssen formulation for wind input and whitecapping dissipation source terms in combination with both ERA5 and hybrid wind were used and the minimum combined error in the prediction of significant wave height (Hs) and zero up-crossing wave period (Tz) was examined. The maximum significant wave height for hybrid wind is higher than that of ERA5, while the cyclone development was successfully inferred from the wave field of the hybrid data. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Climatology)
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13 pages, 3510 KB  
Article
Nocturnal Boundary Layer Height Uncertainty in Particulate Matter Simulations during the KORUS-AQ Campaign
by Hyo-Jung Lee, Hyun-Young Jo, Jong-Min Kim, Juseon Bak, Moon-Soo Park, Jung-Kwon Kim, Yu-Jin Jo and Cheol-Hee Kim
Remote Sens. 2023, 15(2), 300; https://doi.org/10.3390/rs15020300 - 4 Jan 2023
Cited by 13 | Viewed by 4468
Abstract
Vertical mixing in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) is an important factor in the prediction of particulate matter (PM) concentrations; however, PBL height (PBLH) in the stable atmosphere remains poorly understood. In particular, the assessment of uncertainties related to nocturnal PBLH (nPBLH) is [...] Read more.
Vertical mixing in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) is an important factor in the prediction of particulate matter (PM) concentrations; however, PBL height (PBLH) in the stable atmosphere remains poorly understood. In particular, the assessment of uncertainties related to nocturnal PBLH (nPBLH) is challenging due to the absence of stable atmosphere observations. In this study, we explored nPBLH–PM2.5 interactions by comparing model results and observations during the Korea–United States Air Quality Study (KORUS-AQ) campaign (1–31 May 2016). Remote sensing measurements (e.g., aerosol and wind Doppler lidar) and on-line WRF-Chem modeling results were used by applying three different PBL parameterizations: Yonsei University (YSU), Mellor–Yamada–Janjic (MYJ), and Asymmetrical Convective Model v2 (ACM2). Our results indicated that the uncertainties of PBLH–PM interactions were not large in daytime, whereas the uncertainties of nPBLH–PM2.5 interactions were significant. All WRF-Chem experiments showed a clear tendency to underestimate nighttime nPBLH by a factor of ~3 compared with observations, and shallow nPBLH clearly led to extremely high PM2.5 peaks during the night. These uncertainties associated with nPBLH and nPBLH–PM2.5 simulations suggest that PM2.5 peaks predicted from nighttime or next-morning nPBLH simulations should be interpreted with caution. Additionally, we discuss uncertainties among PBL parameterization schemes in relation to PM2.5 simulations. Full article
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14 pages, 3588 KB  
Article
Performance Evaluation of Planetary Boundary Layer Schemes in Simulating Structures of Wintertime Lower Troposphere in Seoul Using One-Hour Interval Radiosonde Observation
by Beom-Soon Han, Kyung-Hwan Kwak, Jae-Hee Hahm and Seung-Bu Park
Appl. Sci. 2022, 12(13), 6356; https://doi.org/10.3390/app12136356 - 22 Jun 2022
Cited by 3 | Viewed by 2904
Abstract
We investigated the structures of the wintertime lower troposphere in Seoul, South Korea on 17 and 18 January 2017 by performing 1 h interval radiosonde observation and numerical simulations. In the daytime on 17 January, the height of the convective boundary layer (CBL) [...] Read more.
We investigated the structures of the wintertime lower troposphere in Seoul, South Korea on 17 and 18 January 2017 by performing 1 h interval radiosonde observation and numerical simulations. In the daytime on 17 January, the height of the convective boundary layer (CBL) sharply and quickly increased when the residual layer became a part of the CBL. From the afternoon on 17 January, moist air with clouds began to substantially intrude in the lower troposphere in Seoul, and radiative heating/cooling weakened. As a result, the mixing of air in the lower troposphere was inhibited and the vertical gradients of potential temperature and water vapor mixing ratio changed little on 18 January. We evaluated the performance of four planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization schemes (the Yonsei University (YSU), Mellor–Yamada–Janjić (MYJ), Mellor–Yamada–Nakanishi–Niino (MYNN), and Asymmetric Convective Model version 2 (ACM2) schemes) coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting model in simulating the structures of the lower troposphere against 1 h interval radiosonde observation. The general tendencies of the air temperature and wind speed in the lower troposphere were well-reproduced in the four simulations. However, the sharp increase in the CBL height did not appear in the four simulations, implying that the process of the residual layer becoming a part of the CBL in the daytime is not well-parameterized. Additionally, the simulated water vapor mixing ratio near the surface was smaller compared with the observation. We found that small-scale turbulence in the CBL, which mixes advected air and pre-existing air, was not reproduced well by the PBL parameterization schemes. Compared with the other simulations, the most accurate air temperature and wind speed were reproduced in the simulation with the MYJ scheme, while the CBL development and moisture advection were reproduced relatively well in the simulation with the MYNN scheme. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Advances in Monitoring and Modeling of Urban Air Quality)
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28 pages, 19156 KB  
Article
Uncertainty Quantification of WRF Model for Rainfall Prediction over the Sichuan Basin, China
by Yu Du, Ting Xu, Yuzhang Che, Bifeng Yang, Shaojie Chen, Zhikun Su, Lianxia Su, Yangruixue Chen and Jiafeng Zheng
Atmosphere 2022, 13(5), 838; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13050838 - 20 May 2022
Cited by 16 | Viewed by 4668
Abstract
The mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been widely employed to forecast day-ahead rainfalls. However, the deterministic predictions from the WRF model incorporate relatively large errors due to numerical discretization, inaccuracies in initial/boundary conditions and parameterizations, etc. Among them, the uncertainties [...] Read more.
The mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been widely employed to forecast day-ahead rainfalls. However, the deterministic predictions from the WRF model incorporate relatively large errors due to numerical discretization, inaccuracies in initial/boundary conditions and parameterizations, etc. Among them, the uncertainties in parameterization schemes have a huge impact on the forecasting skill of rainfalls, especially over the Sichuan Basin which is located east of the Tibetan Plateau in southwestern China. To figure out the impact of various parameterization schemes and their interactions on rainfall predictions over the Sichuan Basin, the Global Forecast System data are chosen as the initial/boundary conditions for the WRF model and 48 ensemble tests have been conducted based on different combinations of four microphysical (MP) schemes, four planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes, and three cumulus (CU) schemes, for four rainfall cases in summer. Compared to the observations obtained from the Chinese ground-based and encrypted stations, it is found that the Goddard MP scheme together with the asymmetric convective model version 2 PBL scheme outperforms other combinations. Next, as the first step to explore further improvement of the WRF physical schemes, the polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) approach is then adopted to quantify the impacts of several empirical parameters with uncertainties in the WRF Single Moment 6-class (WSM6) MP scheme, the Yonsei University (YSU) PBL scheme and the Kain-Fritsch CU scheme on WRF rainfall predictions. The PCE statistics show that the uncertainty of the scaling factor applied to ice fall velocity in the WSM6 scheme and the profile shape exponent in the YSU scheme affects more dominantly the rainfall predictions in comparison with other parameters, which sheds a light on the importance of these schemes for the rainfall predictions over the Sichuan Basin and suggests the next step to further improve the physical schemes. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Identification and Optimization of Retrieval Model in Atmosphere)
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17 pages, 6718 KB  
Article
Exploring the Impact of Planetary Boundary Layer Schemes on Rainfall Forecasts for Typhoon Mujigae, 2015
by Wenqi Shen, Zebin Lu, Guilin Ye, Yu Zhang, Siqi Chen and Jianjun Xu
Atmosphere 2022, 13(2), 220; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13020220 - 28 Jan 2022
Cited by 9 | Viewed by 3651
Abstract
Sensitivity experiments were conducted on Typhoon Mujigae, which occurred in 2015, wherein the Weather Research and Forecasting Advanced Research (WRF-ARW) model was used to select two local and two nonlocal planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization schemes: the quasi-normal scale elimination (QNSE) and Mellor–Yamada–Janjic [...] Read more.
Sensitivity experiments were conducted on Typhoon Mujigae, which occurred in 2015, wherein the Weather Research and Forecasting Advanced Research (WRF-ARW) model was used to select two local and two nonlocal planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization schemes: the quasi-normal scale elimination (QNSE) and Mellor–Yamada–Janjic (MYJ) schemes, and the Yonsei University (YSU) and medium-range forecast (MRF) schemes, respectively. The differences in rainfall response in the typhoon’s inner core and outer region were evaluated by comparing the anomaly rainfall distribution, heat transmission, and mixing processes in the boundary layer among the PBL schemes. The results show that the simulated rainfall in typhoon Mujigae has large uncertainty among the PBL schemes and a significant difference between the inner and outer regions. Compared with the observation, the simulated rainfall was significantly higher in the inner core and slightly lower in the outer region. All PBL schemes accurately identified the rainfall location, although the amounts differed between the schemes. The rainfall levels in the MRF scheme were closest to the observation, followed by those in the YSU and MYJ schemes; the QNSE scheme showed the largest deviation. In general, rainfall simulation using a nonlocal boundary layer scheme such as MRF had the best results for both the inner core and the outer region. Full article
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35 pages, 34413 KB  
Article
Influence of Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) Parameterizations in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model on the Retrieval of Surface Meteorological Variables over the Kenyan Highlands
by Sammy M. Njuki, Chris M. Mannaerts and Zhongbo Su
Atmosphere 2022, 13(2), 169; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13020169 - 20 Jan 2022
Cited by 21 | Viewed by 6614
Abstract
Regional climate models (RCMs) are crucial for climate studies and may be an alternative source of meteorological data in data-scarce regions. However, the effectiveness of the numerical weather prediction (NWP) models applied in RCMs is hampered by the parameterization of unresolved physical processes [...] Read more.
Regional climate models (RCMs) are crucial for climate studies and may be an alternative source of meteorological data in data-scarce regions. However, the effectiveness of the numerical weather prediction (NWP) models applied in RCMs is hampered by the parameterization of unresolved physical processes in the model. A major source of uncertainties in NWP models is the parameterization of the planetary boundary layer (PBL). This study evaluates the influence of seven PBL parameterization schemes in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model on the retrieval of four meteorological variables over the Kenyan highlands. The seven PBL schemes consist of four local schemes: the Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ), Mellor-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino (MYNN), Bougeault-Lacarrere (BouLac), quasinormal scale elimination (QNSE), and three nonlocal schemes: asymmetrical convective model version 2 (ACM2), Shin and Hong (SHIN) and Yonsei University (YSU). The forcing data for the WRF model was obtained from the fifth generation of the European ReAnalysis (ERA5) dataset. The results were validated against observational data from the Trans-African Hydro-Meteorological Observatory (TAHMO). WRF was found to simulate surface meteorological variables with spatial details coherent with the complex topography within the Kenyan highlands, irrespective of the PBL scheme. A comparison between 2-meter temperature (T2) derived from the YSU scheme and T2 from the land component of ERA5 (ERA5-Land) indicates that surface meteorological variables derived from WRF are better suited for applications over the Kenyan highlands. The choice of the PBL scheme was found to primarily influence the simulation of the 10-meter wind speed (WS10) and rainfall as opposed to T2 and the 2-meter relative humidity (RH2). The insensitivity of the 2-meter variables to the choice of the PBL scheme is attributed to the influence of the surface layer parameterization near the surface. Results from the rainfall simulation indicate that the YSU scheme provides a more realistic depiction of PBL dynamics within the study area. Hence, the YSU scheme is best suited for simulating surface meteorological variables over the Kenyan highlands. Full article
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31 pages, 9898 KB  
Article
Sensitivity of Simulations of Zambian Heavy Rainfall Events to the Atmospheric Boundary Layer Schemes
by Mary-Jane M. Bopape, David Waitolo, Robert S. Plant, Elelwani Phaduli, Edson Nkonde, Henry Simfukwe, Stein Mkandawire, Edward Rakate and Robert Maisha
Climate 2021, 9(2), 38; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli9020038 - 23 Feb 2021
Cited by 5 | Viewed by 5209
Abstract
Weather forecasting relies on the use of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, whose resolution is informed by the available computational resources. The models resolve large scale processes, while subgrid processes are parametrized. One of the processes that is parametrized is turbulence which is [...] Read more.
Weather forecasting relies on the use of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, whose resolution is informed by the available computational resources. The models resolve large scale processes, while subgrid processes are parametrized. One of the processes that is parametrized is turbulence which is represented in planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes. In this study, we evaluate the sensitivity of heavy rainfall events over Zambia to four different PBL schemes in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model using a parent domain with a 9 km grid length and a 3 km grid spacing child domain. The four PBL schemes are the Yonsei University (YSU), nonlocal first-order medium-range forecasting (MRF), University of Washington (UW) and Mellor–Yamada–Nakanishi–Niino (MYNN) schemes. Simulations were done for three case studies of extreme rainfall on 17 December 2016, 21 January 2017 and 17 April 2019. The use of YSU produced the highest rainfall peaks across all three cases; however, it produced performance statistics similar to UW that are higher than those of the two other schemes. These statistics are not maintained when adjusted for random hits, indicating that the extra events are mainly random rather than being skillfully placed. UW simulated the lowest PBL height, while MRF produced the highest PBL height, but this was not matched by the temperature simulation. The YSU and MYNN PBL heights were intermediate at the time of the peak; however, MYNN is associated with a slower decay and higher PBL heights at night. WRF underestimated the maximum temperature during all cases and for all PBL schemes, with a larger bias in the MYNN scheme. We support further use of the YSU scheme, which is the scheme selected for the tropical suite in WRF. The different simulations were in some respects more similar to one another than to the available observations. Satellite rainfall estimates and the ERA5 reanalysis showed different rainfall distributions, which indicates a need for more ground observations to assist with studies like this one. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Precipitation: Forecasting and Climate Projections)
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18 pages, 3036 KB  
Article
Examination of WRF-ARW Experiments Using Different Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterizations to Study the Rapid Intensification and Trajectory of Hurricane Otto (2016)
by Tito Maldonado, Jorge A. Amador, Erick R. Rivera, Hugo G. Hidalgo and Eric J. Alfaro
Atmosphere 2020, 11(12), 1317; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11121317 - 4 Dec 2020
Cited by 7 | Viewed by 3885
Abstract
Hurricane Otto (2016) was characterised by remarkable meteorological features of relevance for the scientific community and society. Scientifically, among the most important attributes of Otto is that it underwent a rapid intensification (RI) process. For society, this cyclone severely impacted Costa Rica and [...] Read more.
Hurricane Otto (2016) was characterised by remarkable meteorological features of relevance for the scientific community and society. Scientifically, among the most important attributes of Otto is that it underwent a rapid intensification (RI) process. For society, this cyclone severely impacted Costa Rica and Nicaragua, leaving enormous economic losses and many fatalities. In this study, a set of three numerical simulations are performed to examine the skill of model estimations in reproducing RI and trajectory of Hurricane Otto by comparing the results of a global model to a regional model using three different planetary boundary layer parameterizations (PBL). The objective is to set the basis for future studies that analyse the physical reasons why a particular simulation (associated with a certain model setup) performs better than others in terms of reproducing RI and trajectory. We use the regional model Weather Research and Forecasting—Advanced Research WRF (WRF-ARW) with boundary and initial conditions provided by the Global Forecast System (GFS) analysis (horizontal resolution of 0.5 degrees). The PBL used are the Medium Range Forecast, the Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ), and the Yonsei University (YSU) parameterizations. The regional model is run in three static domains with horizontal grid spacing of 27, 9 and 3 km, the latter covering the spacial extent of Otto during the simulation period. WRF-ARW results improve the GFS forecast, in almost every aspect evaluated in this study, particularly, the simulated trajectories in WRF-ARW show a better representation of the cyclone path and movement compared to GFS. Even though the MYJ experiment was the only one that exhibited an abrupt 24-h change in the storm’s surface wind, close to the 25-knot threshold, the YSU scheme presented the fastest intensification, closest to reality. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Central America and Caribbean Hydrometeorology and Hydroclimate)
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17 pages, 3318 KB  
Article
Simulation of Wind Speed Based on Different Driving Datasets and Parameterization Schemes Near Dunhuang Wind Farms in Northwest of China
by Tiejun Zhang, Cailing Zhao, Chongshui Gong and ZhaoXia Pu
Atmosphere 2020, 11(6), 647; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11060647 - 18 Jun 2020
Cited by 7 | Viewed by 6106
Abstract
In this study, we evaluate the impacts of different datasets (e.g., NCEP global forecast system (GFS) and ERA5) that are used to derive the initial and boundary conditions, various planetary parameterization boundary layer (PBL) schemes and radiation parameterization schemes on wind speed simulations [...] Read more.
In this study, we evaluate the impacts of different datasets (e.g., NCEP global forecast system (GFS) and ERA5) that are used to derive the initial and boundary conditions, various planetary parameterization boundary layer (PBL) schemes and radiation parameterization schemes on wind speed simulations over wind farms near Dunhuang in Northwest of China. The mesoscale community Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is employed to simulate the wind speeds in March of 2014. The sensitivity of numerical simulations to different PBL schemes, including the Yonsei University (YSU), the Asymmetric Convective Model (ACM2) and the Mellor–Yamada–Janjic (MYJ) scheme are examined. Besides, simulations with different radiation parameterization schemes, including the Rapid Radiative Transfer Model for general circulation model (GCM) applications (RRTMG) and the Fu–Liou–Gu radiative transfer scheme (FLG), are compared. Based on hourly observation data from three national basic meteorological observing stations and an anemometer tower in Dunhuang, the simulation results are evaluated. Results show that, using the GFS data as the initial data, the simulation error of 10-m wind speed is rather smaller under the combination of the YSU and FLG. When using the ERA5 data as the initial data, the error of the 2-m temperature simulation is smaller, and it is also less than that of the 10-m wind speed simulation. The simulation results show significant differences at different altitudes. The relative error of wind speed is larger at higher altitude. In the vertical direction, the wind speed is smaller at a lower height and so is the simulation error. In terms of wind speed from the anemometer tower, the error of the wind speed is related to the magnitude of the observed wind speed. Therefore, according to specific conditions of the simulated area, selecting an appropriate combination of initial data and parameterization schemes can effectively reduce the errors of simulated wind speed. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Meteorology)
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