Search Results (17)

Predicting nutrient loads is essential to understanding and managing one of the environmental issues faced by the northern Gulf of Mexico hypoxic zone, which poses a severe threat to the Gulf’s healthy ecosystem and economy. The development of hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico is strongly associated with the eutrophication process initiated by excessive nutrient loads. Due to the complexities in the excessive nutrient loads to the Gulf of Mexico, it is challenging to understand and predict the underlying temporal variation of nutrient loads. The study was aimed at identifying an optimal predictive machine learning model to capture and predict nonlinear behavior of the nutrient loads delivered from the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin (MARB) to the Gulf of Mexico. For this purpose, monthly nutrient loads (N and P) in tons were collected from US Geological Survey (USGS) monitoring station 07373420 from 1980 to 2020. Machine learning models—including autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), gaussian process regression (GPR), single-layer multilayer perceptron (MLP), and a long short-term memory (LSTM) with the single hidden layer—were developed to predict the monthly nutrient loads, and model performances were evaluated by standard assessment metrics—Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Correlation Coefficient (R). The residuals of predictive models were examined by the Durbin–Watson statistic. The results showed that MLP and LSTM persistently achieved better accuracy in predicting monthly TN and TP loads compared to GPR and ARIMA. In addition, GPR models achieved slightly better test RMSE score than ARIMA models while their correlation coefficients are much lower than ARIMA models. Moreover, MLP performed slightly better than LSTM in predicting monthly TP loads while LSTM slightly outperformed for TN loads. Furthermore, it was found that the optimizer and number of inputs didn’t show effects on the LSTM performance while they exhibited impacts on MLP outcomes. This study explores the capability of machine learning models to accurately predict nonlinearly fluctuating nutrient loads delivered to the Gulf of Mexico. Further efforts focus on improving the accuracy of forecasting using hybrid models which combine several machine learning models with superior predictive performance for nutrient fluxes throughout the MARB. Full article

The Northern Gulf of Mexico hosts a severe dead zone, an oxygen-depleted area spanning 1,618,000 hectares, threatening over 40% of the U.S. fishing industry and causing annual losses of USD 82 million. Using a System Dynamics (SD) approach, this study examined the Mississippi–Atchafalaya River Basin (MARB), a major contributor to hypoxia in the Gulf. A dynamic model, developed with Vensim software version 10.2.1 andexisting data, represented the physical, biological, and chemical processes leading to eutrophication and simulated dead zone formation over time. Various policies were assessed, considering natural system variability. The findings showed that focusing solely on nitrogen control reduced the dead zone but required greater intensity or managing other inputs to meet environmental goals. Runoff control policies delayed nutrient discharge but did not significantly alter long-term outcomes. Extreme condition tests highlighted the critical role of runoff dynamics, dependent on nitrogen load relative to flow volume from upstream. The model suggests interventions should not just reduce eutrophication inputs but enhance factors slowing down the process, allowing natural denitrification to override anthropogenic nitrification. Full article

To minimize the eutrophication pressure along the Gulf of Mexico or reduce the size of the hypoxic zone in the Gulf of Mexico, it is important to understand the underlying temporal and spatial variations and correlations in excess nutrient loads, which are strongly associated with the formation of hypoxia. This study’s objective was to reveal and visualize structures in high-dimensional datasets of nutrient yield distributions throughout the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin (MARB). For this purpose, the annual mean nutrient concentrations were collected from thirty-three US Geological Survey (USGS) water stations scattered in the upper and lower MARB from 1996 to 2020. Eight surface water quality indicators were selected to make comparisons among water stations along the MARB over the past two decades. Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to comprehensively evaluate the nutrient yields across thirty-three USGS monitoring stations and identify the major contributing nutrient loads. The results showed that all samples could be analyzed using two main components, which accounted for 81.6% of the total variance. The PCA results showed that yields of orthophosphate (OP), silica (SI), nitrate–nitrites (NO₃-NO₂), and total suspended sediment (TSS) are major contributors to nutrient yields. It also showed that land-planted crops, density of population, domestic and industrial discharges, and precipitation are fundamental causes of excess nutrient loads in MARB. These factors are of great significance for the excess nutrient load management and pollution control of the Mississippi River. It was found that the average nutrient yields were stable within the sub-MARB area, but the large nitrogen yields in the upper MARB and the large phosphorus yields in the lower MARB were of great concern. t-distributed stochastic neighbor embedding (t-SNE) revealed interesting nonlinear and local structures in nutrient yield distributions. Clustering analysis (CA) showed the detailed development of similarities in the nutrient yield distribution. Moreover, PCA, t-SNE, and CA showed consistent clustering results. This study demonstrated that the integration of dimension reduction techniques, PCA, and t-SNE with CA techniques in machine learning are effective tools for the visualization of the structures of the correlations in high-dimensional datasets of nutrient yields and provide a comprehensive understanding of the correlations in the distributions of nutrient loads across the MARB. Full article

Risks from flooding and poor water quality are evident at a range of spatial scales and climate change will exacerbate these risks in the future. Natural infrastructure (NI), consisting of structural or perennial vegetation, measures that provide multiple ecosystem benefits have the potential to reduce flood and water quality risks. In this study, we intersected watershed-scale risks to flooding and nitrate export in the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River Basin (MARB) of the central U.S. with potential locations of seven NI practices (row crop conversion, water, and sediment control basins, depressional wetlands, nitrate-removal wetlands, riparian buffers, and floodplain levees and row crop change) to prioritize where NI can be most effective for combined risk reduction at watershed scales. Spatial data from a variety of publicly-available databases were analyzed at a 10 m grid cell to locate NI practices using a geographic information system (GIS). NI practices were presented at the regional basin scale and local Iowa-Cedar watershed in eastern Iowa to show individual practice locations. A prioritization scheme was developed to show the optimal watersheds for deploying NI practices to minimize flooding and water quality risks in the MARB. Among the 84 HUC4 basins in the MARB, 28 are located in the Upper Mississippi and Ohio Rivers basins. The Wabash and Iowa-Cedar basins (HUCs 0512 and 0708, respectively) within these basins were found to rank among the uppermost quintile for nearly all practices evaluated, indicating widespread opportunities for NI implementation. Study results are a launching point from which to improve the connections between watershed scale risks and the potential use of NI practices to reduce these risks. Full article

High inflows of freshwater from the Mississippi and Atchafalaya rivers into the northern Gulf of Mexico during spring contribute to strong physical and biogeochemical gradients which, in turn, influence phytoplankton community composition across the river plume–ocean mixing zone. Spectral features representative of bio-optical signatures of phytoplankton size classes (PSCs) were retrieved from underway, shipboard hyperspectral measurements of above-water remote sensing reflectance using the quasi-analytical algorithm (QAA_v6) and validated against in situ pigment data and spectrophotometric analyses of phytoplankton absorption. The results shed new light on sub-km scale variability in PSCs associated with dynamic and spatially heterogeneous environmental processes in river-influenced oceanic waters. Our findings highlight the existence of localized regions of dominant picophytoplankton communities associated with river plume fronts in both the Mississippi and Atchafalaya rivers in an area of the coastal margin that is otherwise characteristically dominated by larger microphytoplankton. This study demonstrates the applicability of underway hyperspectral observations for providing insights about small-scale physical-biological dynamics in optically complex coastal waters. Fine-scale observations of phytoplankton communities in surface waters as shown here and future satellite retrievals of hyperspectral data will provide a novel means of exploring relationships between physical processes of river plume–ocean mixing and frontal dynamics on phytoplankton community composition. Full article

River confluences are important nodes for downstream sediment transport and geomorphological development. Previous studies have established the knowledge that under natural conditions, river confluence zones experience channel scour followed with middle channel bar development. Less care is however given to the intensity of a confluence scour zone under man-controlled conditions, such as discharge regulation and levee confinement. In general, our knowledge about long-term bed evolution downstream of large alluvial river confluences is limited. Here we conducted a study focused on the 69-km uppermost channel of the Atchafalaya River, the largest distributary of the Mississippi River, to test the hypothesis that the channel downstream of two large tributaries sustains longer-term, extensive bed scouring owing to increased discharge in the main channel and, therefore, mid-channel bars in such a confluence zone cannot be built under confined channel conditions. The Atchafalaya River carries the total flow from the Red River and approximately 25% of the Mississippi River flow, traveling southwards 230 km before emptying into the Gulf of Mexico. We utilized long-term records on water surface elevation and discharge during 1935–2016, as well as channel bathymetry survey data during 1998–2006 to determine changes in hydraulic head and morphologic deformation in the confluence zone. The results from this study show that the combined flow from the Red River and Mississippi River into the Atchafalaya River steadily increased to approximately 5848 cubic meters per second (m³ s⁻¹) in the recent decades, and the channel bed of the uppermost Atchafalaya River experienced considerable erosion since the 1930s. At a specific discharge of 8000 ± 100 m³ s⁻¹, the river stage decreased by 5.8, 5.6, and 4.9 m from 1935 to 2016 at (from upstream to downstream) Simmesport, Melville, and Krotz Springs gauging stations, respectively. The average bed elevation reduced by 1.9 m from 1998 to 2006, although its thalweg increased by 0.3 m. Based on the channel bed assessment, a total volume of 6.6 × 10⁷ m³ sediment was eroded from the uppermost 69 km of the Atchafalaya over the 8 years. The findings suggest that confluence zones of large alluvial rivers under controlled flow and confined levee conditions can experience extensive, long-lasting channel erosion. This can be especially progressive if the channel below a confluence is confined by levees, which can increase drag forces and prevent middle channel deposition. Further studies are needed to determine if the eroded sediment from the uppermost Atchafalaya is carried out to the river mouth or is deposited in the lower Atchafalaya. Such knowledge will have both scientific and practical relevance in river engineering and management. Full article

This study investigated the annual and seasonal variations in nutrient loads (NO₂⁻ + NO₃⁻ and orthophosphate) delivered to the Gulf of Mexico from the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River Basin (MARB) and examined the water quality variations. The results indicate that (1) annually, the mean NO₂⁻ + NO₃⁻ and orthophosphate loads showed a steady increase during 1996–1999, a persistent level during 2000–2007, and a moderate increase during 2008–2016; (2) seasonally, NO₂⁻ + NO₃⁻ and orthophosphate in MARB in spring and summer were higher than those in autumn and winter. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) identified highly significant differences among seasonal loads; and (3) the median value of NO₂⁻ + NO₃⁻ in normal weather conditions were higher than that during and right after the hurricanes, while the median value of orthophosphate loads in normal weather conditions was higher than that during the hurricanes, but higher than that right after hurricanes. The two-sample t-test indicates a significant difference (p < 0.046) in orthophosphate loads before and after Hurricane Katrina. Moreover, it is found that there is a significant (p < 0.01) increase in nutrient loads during normal weather conditions. The results indicate that hurricane seasons can significantly influence the nutrient loads from the MARB to the Gulf of Mexico. Full article

Transport and transformation of riverine dissolved carbon is an important component of global carbon cycling. The Atchafalaya River (AR) flows 189 kilometers through the largest bottomland swamp in North America and discharges ~25% of the flow of the Mississippi River into the Gulf of Mexico annually, providing a unique opportunity to study the floodplain/wetland impacts on dissolved carbon. The aim of this study is to determine how dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) in the AR change spatially and seasonally, and to elucidate which processes control the carbon cycling in this intricate swamp-river system. From May 2015 to May 2016, we conducted monthly river sampling from the river’s inflow to its outflow, analyzing samples for concentrations and δ¹³C stable isotope composition of DOC and DIC. We found that DIC concentrations in the AR were three times higher than the DOC concentrations on average, and showed more pronounced downstream changes than the DOC. During the study period, the river discharged a total of 5.35 Tg DIC and a total of 2.34 Tg DOC into the Gulf of Mexico. Based on the mass inflow–outflow balance, approximately 0.53 Tg (~10%) of the total DIC exported was produced within the floodplain/wetland system, while 0.24 Tg (~10%) of the DOC entering the basin was removed. The AR’s water was consistently oversaturated with CO₂ partial pressure (pCO₂) above the atmospheric pCO₂ (with pCO₂ varying from 551 µatm to 6922 µatm), indicating a large source of DIC from river waters to the atmosphere as well as to the coastal margins. Largest changes in carbon constituents occurred during periods of greatest inundation of the swamp-river basin and corresponded with shifts in isotopic composition. This effect was particularly pronounced during the initial flood stages, supporting the hypothesis that subtropical floodplains can act as effective enhancers of the biogeochemical cycling of dissolved carbon. Full article

The lowermost Mississippi River (LMR) is one of the largest deltaic systems in North America and one of the heavily human-manipulated fluvial river systems. Historic hydrographic surveys from the mid-1900s to the early 2010s were used to document the thalweg morphology adjustments, as well as the riffle–pool sequences. Extensive aggradation was observed during 1950s to 1960s, as the Atchafalaya River was enlarging before the completion of the Old River Control Structure (ORCS). Following the completion of the ORCS, reductions in sediment input to the LMR resulted in net degradation of the thalweg profile patterns since the mid-1960s except for the 1992–2004 period. Different flood events that supplied sediment might be the cause of upstream aggradation from 1963–1975 and net aggradation along the entire reach from 1992–2004. Furthermore, the change pattern of thalweg profiles appear to be controlled by backwater effects, as well as the Bonnet Carré spillway opening. Results from riffle–pool sequences reveal that the averaging W_s ratios (length to channel width) are 6–7, similar to numerous previous studies. Temporal variations of the same riffles and pools reveal that aggradation and degradation might be heavily controlled by similar factors to the thalweg variations (i.e., sediment supply, backwater effects). In sum, this study examines decadal-scale geomorphic responses in a low-lying large river system subject to different human interventions, as well as natural flood events. Future management strategies of this and similar river systems should consider recent riverbed changes in dredging, sediment management, and river engineering. Full article

We adapted the coupled ocean-sediment transport model to the northern Gulf of Mexico to examine sediment dynamics on seasonal-to-decadal time scales as well as its response to decreased fluvial inputs from the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River. Sediment transport on the shelf exhibited contrasting conditions in a year, with strong westward transport in spring, fall, and winter, and relatively weak eastward transport in summer. Sedimentation rate varied from almost zero on the open shelf to more than 10 cm/year near river mouths. A phase shift in river discharge was detected in 1999 and was associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event, after which, water and sediment fluxes decreased by ~20% and ~40%, respectively. Two sensitivity tests were carried out to examine the response of sediment dynamics to high and low river discharge, respectively. With a decreased fluvial supply, sediment flux and sedimentation rate were largely reduced in areas proximal to the deltas, which might accelerate the land loss in down-coast bays and estuaries. The results of two sensitivity tests indicated the decreased river discharge would largely affect sediment balance in waters around the delta. The impact from decreased fluvial input was minimum on the sandy shoals ~100 km west of the Mississippi Delta, where deposition of fluvial sediments was highly affected by winds. Full article

This study is a part of the Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP) aimed to quantify the environmental and economic benefits of conservation practices implemented in the cultivated cropland throughout the United States. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model under the Hydrologic United Modeling of the United States (HUMUS) framework was used in the study. An automated flow calibration procedure was developed and used to calibrate runoff for each 8-digit watershed (within 20% of calibration target) and the partitioning of runoff into surface and sub-surface flow components (within 10% of calibration target). Streamflow was validated at selected gauging stations along major rivers within the river basin with a target R² of >0.6 and Nash and Sutcliffe Efficiency of >0.5. The study area covered the entire Mississippi and Atchafalaya River Basin (MARB). Based on the results obtained, our analysis pointed out multiple challenges to calibration such as: (1) availability of good quality data, (2) accounting for multiple reservoirs within a sub-watershed, (3) inadequate accounting of elevation and slopes in mountainous regions, (4) poor representation of carrying capacity of channels, (5) inadequate capturing of the irrigation return flows, (6) inadequate representation of vegetative cover, and (7) poor representation of water abstractions (both surface and groundwater). Additional outstanding challenges to large-scale hydrologic model calibration were the coarse spatial scale of soils, land cover, and topography. Full article

The Atchafalaya River (AR), North America’s largest swamp river, annually discharges a large volume of freshwater (nearly 200 km3), delivering ~25% of the Mississippi River’s (MR) flow and the entire Red River’s (RR) flow into the Gulf of Mexico. Studies have reported higher levels of organic carbon in the AR’s outlets compared to the MR’s outlet, raising questions about local carbon sources. In this study, we investigated dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) inputs into the AR from the RR and MR using DOC and DIC concentrations, mass loading, and isotopic signature (δ13C) analyses. Monthly river water sampling was conducted in the MR and RR near their confluence where the AR is formed from May 2015–May 2016. DIC concentrations in the RR were found to be only half of those found in the MR, while the RR’s DOC concentrations were on average 1.8 times higher than those found in the MR. Based on the models developed for this study period, the RR’s contribution to DIC mass loading in the AR represented 1.41 teragrams (Tg) (or, 29.7%) of the total 4.76 Tg DIC transported by both tributaries, while its contribution to DOC mass loading was disproportionately high, accounting for 1.74 Tg of the 2.75 Tg DOC (or, 63.2% of total DOC) entering the AR. Both δ13CDIC and δ13CDOC showed significantly more negative values in the RR than those found in the MR. Significant correlation between δ13CDIC and δ13CDOC isotope values in the RR indicated interrelation of dissolved carbon processing, which was not observable in the MR. These results strongly suggest that the RR is an extremely significant source of DOC to the AR, and thus the Gulf of Mexico, and additionally plays an important role in diluting the anthropogenically enhanced DIC fluxes of the MR. Full article

The Mississippi River Delta has been continuously losing land since the 1930s due to several factors, chief of which is the reduced sediment supply. A few recent studies have estimated individual components of short-term sediment transport, i.e., bedload and suspended load, separately for some locations along the Lowermost Mississippi River (LmMR, commonly considered as the last 500-km reach of the Mississippi River before entering the Gulf of Mexico). However, the combined effects of both components on the long-term sediment supply along the river reach are still unclear. One of the major obstacles here hindering our understanding is that it is difficult and impractical to accurately measure bedloads in large alluvial rivers, such as the Mississippi. In this study, we estimated bedloads of three medium grain sizes (D50 = 0.125, 0.25 and 0.5 mm) for three locations along the uppermost 140-km reach of the LmMR: Tarbert Landing (TBL) at river kilometer (rk) 493, St Francisville (St F) at rk 419, and Baton Rouge (BTR) at rk 367.5 during 2004–2015. We also estimated suspended loads at St F during 1978–2015 and at BTR during 2004–2015 in order to discern the interactive relationship between bedloads and suspended loads. We found gradually increasing bedloads for all the three medium grain sizes from TBL (83, 41.5 and 20.75 million tons (MT), respectively) to BTR (96, 48 and 24 MT). We also found that suspended loads at TBL (reported previously) were significantly higher than those at St F and BTR during corresponding overlapping periods. Bedloads increased almost linearly with suspended loads, river discharge and river stage at the upstream locations (TBL and St F); however, such a relationship was not evident downstream at BTR. The total sediment load (bedload + suspended sediment load) was substantially higher at TBL (931 MT), while lower and nearly equal at other two downstream locations (550 MT at St F and 544 MT at BTR) during 2004–2010 (the matching period of availability of both loads). These findings indicate that the uppermost 20–25 km LmMR reach (covering TBL) has potentially entrapped substantial suspended load over the last three to four decades, while bedload transport prevails in the lower reach (covering St F and BTR). We suggest that future sediment management in the river should seek engineering solutions for moving trapped coarse sediments downstream towards the coast for the Mississippi River Delta restoration Full article

Estuarine navigation channels have long been recognized as conduits for saltwater intrusion into coastal wetlands. Salt flux decomposition and time series measurements of velocity and salinity were used to examine salt flux components and drivers of baroclinic and barotropic exchange in the Houma Navigation Channel, an estuarine channel located in the Mississippi River delta plain that receives substantial freshwater inputs from the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River system at its inland extent. Two modes of vertical current structure were identified from the time series data. The first mode, accounting for 90% of the total flow field variability, strongly resembled a barotropic current structure and was coherent with alongshelf wind stress over the coastal Gulf of Mexico. The second mode was indicative of gravitational circulation and was linked to variability in tidal stirring and the horizontal salinity gradient along the channel’s length. Tidal oscillatory salt flux was more important than gravitational circulation in transporting salt upestuary, except over equatorial phases of the fortnightly tidal cycle during times when river inflows were minimal. During all tidal cycles sampled, the advective flux, driven by a combination of freshwater discharge and wind-driven changes in storage, was the dominant transport term, and net flux of salt was always out of the estuary. These findings indicate that although human-made channels can effectively facilitate inland intrusion of saline water, this intrusion can be minimized or even reversed when they are subject to significant freshwater inputs. Full article

Deltas and estuaries built by the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River (MAR) in the United States and the Usumacinta/Grijalva River (UGR) in Mexico account for 80 percent of all Gulf of Mexico (GoM) coastal wetlands outside of Cuba. They rank first and second in freshwater discharge to the GoM and owe their natural resilience to a modular geomorphology that spreads risk across the coast-scape while providing ecosystem connectivity through shelf plumes that connect estuaries. Both river systems generate large plumes that strongly influence fisheries production over large areas of the northern and southern GoM continental shelves. Recent watershed process simulations (DLEM, MAPSS) driven by CMIP3 General Circulation Model (GCM) output indicate that the two systems face diverging futures, with the mean annual discharge of the MAR predicted to increase 11 to 63 percent, and that of the UGR to decline as much as 80 percent in the 21st century. MAR delta subsidence rates are the highest in North America, making it particularly susceptible to channel training interventions that have curtailed a natural propensity to shift course and deliver sediment to new areas, or to refurbish zones of high wetland loss. Undoing these restrictions in a controlled way has become the focus of a multi-billion-dollar effort to restore the MAR delta internally, while releasing fine-grained sediments trapped behind dams in the Great Plains has become an external goal. The UGR is, from an internal vulnerability standpoint, most threatened by land use changes that interfere with a deltaic architecture that is naturally resilient to sea level rise. This recognition has led to successful efforts in Mexico to protect still intact coastal systems against further anthropogenic impacts, as evidenced by establishment of the Centla Wetland Biosphere Preserve and the Terminos Lagoon Protected Area. The greatest threat to the UGR system, however, is an external one that will be imposed by the severe drying predicted for the entire Mesoamerican “climate change hot-spot”, a change that will necessitate much greater international involvement to protect threatened communities and lifeways as well as rare habitats and species. Full article