Search Results (17)

The 83rd session of the IMO Maritime Environment Protection Committee (MEPC 83) approved a global pricing mechanism for the shipping industry, with formal adoption scheduled for October 2025. Proposed mechanisms include the International Maritime Sustainable Fuels and Fund (IMSF&F) and a combined approach integrating GHG Fuel Standards with Universal GHG Contributions (GFS&UGC). This study developed a model based on the marginal abatement cost curve (MACC) methodology to assess the cost-effectiveness of alternative fuels under both mechanisms. Sensitivity analyses evaluated the impacts of fuel prices, carbon prices, and the GHG Fuel Intensity (GFI) indicator on MAC. Results indicate that implementing the GFS&UGC mechanism yields higher net present values (NPVs) and lower MACs compared to IMSF&F. Introducing universal GHG contributions promotes a comparatively fairer transition to sustainable shipping fuels. Investments in zero- or near-zero-fueled (ZNZ) ships are unlikely to be recouped by 2050 unless carbon prices rise sufficiently to boost revenues. Bio-Methanol and bio-diesel emerged as the most cost-competitive ZNZ options in the long term, while e-Methanol’s poor competitiveness stems from its extremely high price. Both pooling costs and universal GHG levies significantly reduce LNG’s economic viability over the study period. MACs demonstrated greater sensitivity to fuel prices (P_fuel) than to carbon prices (P_carbon) or GFI within this study’s parameterization scope, particularly under GFS&UGC. Ratios of P_carbon%/P_fuel% in equivalent sensitivity scenarios were quantified to determine relative price importance. This work provides insights into fuel selection for shipping companies and supports policymakers in designing effective GHG pricing mechanisms. Full article

Recent research in the liquefied natural gas (LNG) industry has concentrated on reducing specific power consumption (SPC) during production, which helps to lower operating costs and decrease the carbon footprint. Although reducing the SPC offers benefits, it can complicate the system and increase investment costs. This review investigates the thermodynamic parameters of various natural gas (NG) liquefaction technologies. It examines the cryogenic NG processes, including integrating NG liquid recovery plants, nitrogen rejection cycles, helium recovery units, and LNG facilities. It explores various approaches to improve hybrid NG liquefaction performance, including the application of optimization algorithms, mixed refrigerant units, absorption refrigeration cycles, diffusion–absorption refrigeration systems, auto-cascade absorption refrigeration processes, thermoelectric generator plants, liquid air cold recovery units, ejector refrigeration cycles, and the integration of renewable energy sources and waste heat. The review evaluates the economic aspects of hybrid LNG systems, focusing on specific capital costs, LNG pricing, and capacity. LNG capital cost estimates from academic sources (173.2–1184 USD/TPA) are lower than those in technical reports (486.7–3839 USD/TPA). LNG prices in research studies (0.2–0.45 USD/kg, 2024) are lower than in technical reports (0.3–0.7 USD/kg), based on 2024 data. Also, this review investigates LNG accidents in detail and provides valuable insights into safety protocols, risk management strategies, and the overall resilience of LNG operations in the face of potential hazards. A detailed evaluation of LNG plants built in recent years is provided, focusing on technological advancements, operational efficiency, and safety measures. Moreover, this study investigates LNG ports in the United States, examining their infrastructures, regulatory compliance, and strategic role in the global LNG supply chain. In addition, it outlines LNG’s current status and future outlook, focusing on key industry trends. Finally, it presents a market share analysis that examines LNG distribution by export, import, re-loading, and receiving markets. Full article

Shipowners need to prepare for low-emission fuel alternatives to meet the IMO 2050 goals. This is a complex problem due to conflicting objectives and a high degree of uncertainty. To help navigate this problem, this paper investigates how methods that take uncertainty into account, like robust optimization and stochastic optimization, could be used to address uncertainty while taking into account multiple objectives. Robust optimization incorporates uncertainty using a scalable measure of conservativeness, while stochastic programming adds an expected value to the objective function that represents uncertain scenarios. The methods are compared by applying them to the same dataset for a Supramax bulk carrier and taking fuel prices and market-based measures as uncertain factors. It is found that both offer important insights into the impact of uncertainty, which is an improvement when compared to deterministic optimization, that does not take uncertainty into account. From a practical standpoint, both methods show that methanol and LNG ships allow a cheap but large reduction in emissions through the use of biofuels. More importantly, even though there are limitations due to the parameter range assumptions, ignoring uncertainty with respect to future fuels is worse as a starting point for discussions. Full article

Using daily data, we investigate the relationship between European LNG prices, carbon prices (CO₂), electricity wholesale prices and changes in the electricity sector’s energy mix in Greece, using a vector error correction model (VECM). The results indicate that an increase in the daily average price of natural gas has the expected impact on Greece’s wholesale electricity price. As expected, gas and other fossil fuels act as substitute goods, while higher imports of electricity lower prices and have a negative impact on fossil fuel shares. Interestingly, carbon prices do not appear to have any significant impact on any variables, while the higher production of electricity from renewable sources pushes wholesale electricity prices down. Full article

Due to increasingly stringent IMO and European Commission requirements for greenhouse gas emissions, the present study analysed the projected reductions in CO₂ emissions achieved by using methanol as an alternative fuel to power custom service operation vessels (SOVs) serving wind platforms in the Baltic Sea. Methanol is a relatively new fuel, approved for use as a safe marine fuel in the late 2020s. In these analyses, reference was made to the current interim guidelines, supplementing the IGF Code in the form of MSC.1/Circ.1621. The SOV type was chosen because of the current growing demand for these ships (the dynamic development of offshore wind power) and the lack of analyses of this type of small craft. The importance of assessing CO₂ emissions in this case is due to the specifics of the vessel’s operation in different modes, and thus the variable load on the propulsion system and the area of operation close to the coastline. A computational research method was used to evaluate CO₂ emissions, as well as the cost of methanol fuel, using current regulations and technical data. A comparison was also made between conventional MDO and LNG fuels. The first results of the analysis showed that methanol fuel is only competitive with MDO (a few-percent advantage) in terms of the average estimated index value EIV. Economically, it will require a higher investment, despite the favourable unit price of methanol compared to LNG and MDO. Full article

Recently, due to the great need to promote environmentally sustainable maritime transport, alternative energy sources to traditional fossil fuels have been proposed to reduce ship emissions. Among few alternative scenarios, most experts recognize Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) as the most promising solution in the short to medium term. However, there are still some critical issues related to the future expansion of bunkering stations and the LNG-fuelled fleet. Firstly, there is the need for a sufficiently extensive international network of bunkering facilities. Secondly, the layout and location of bunkering stations impact the efficiency of ship bunkering operations, cost reduction and the safety of the surrounding areas. Last, the in-progress Russian-Ukrainian conflict is causing serious unbalances in gas supply and prices, especially for Europe. Specifically, in the case of Italy, gas imports represent the seventh most imported commodity. Due to the changed geopolitical scenarios, interest has arisen in investigating the technical and operational characteristics of LNG bunkering stations and comparing different configurations with a view to increasing Italy’s independence from other foreign countries, focusing on degasifies that could promote new infrastructures that make available LNG in ports. In this paper we highlight the importance of reducing ship emissions and investigate some technical and operational characteristics of LNG bunkering stations. We present a simulation study to analyse quantitatively the operating performance of different LNG bunkering technologies in a port terminal and their impact on the efficiency and overall cost within the whole goods’ supply chain. In particular, we evaluate and compare bunkering time, throughput and refuelling costs in alternative layouts, referring to marine terminals located near urban areas. The aim of this research is to verify whether ports with infrastructure embedded in metropolitan areas could provide, safely, a valuable contribution to the green transition by efficiently handling an adequate level of LNG supply, especially referring to the present Italian interest in increasing independence from foreign countries. For this purpose, we present four dynamic discrete event simulations of all the main LNG bunkering configurations and present their dynamic performance sampled over two consecutive years after a warmup period of 6 months. The simulation conceptual models have been created by the authors based on analyses of those configurations and then processed and implemented within the simulation software Witness Horizon 23^®, used for experimentation. This is the first time that a simulation study is presented for comparing different configuration of LNG bunkering stations. The results presented here confirm that simulation is a key science to address these complex problems and it represents a major added value for the development of new infrastructures embedded in supply chains and able to favour green transition. Concerning the present study, the simulation output reveals that, although the increase in the price of LNG over the past year has had a strong negative impact on the propensity to activate LNG refuelling stations at maritime terminals, Truck-To-Ship, or Ship-to-Ship with small feeder ships, and Port-To-Ship configurations appear to be flexible and particularly suitable for port terminals located near urban areas. However, the final the choice of the most suitable LNG bunkering station requires further and specific inside investigation as well as considerations on the Decision Maker Strategies and Attitudes. Full article

The ongoing Russia–Ukraine conflict has exacerbated the global crisis of natural gas supply, particularly in Europe. During the winter season, major importers of liquefied natural gas (LNG), such as South Korea and Japan, were directly affected by fluctuating spot LNG prices. This study aimed to use machine learning (ML) to predict the Japan Korea Marker (JKM), a spot LNG price index, to reduce price fluctuation risks for LNG importers such as the Korean Gas Corporation (KOGAS). Hence, price prediction models were developed based on long short-term memory (LSTM), artificial neural network (ANN), and support vector machine (SVM) algorithms, which were used for time series data prediction. Eighty-seven variables were collected for JKM prediction, of which eight were selected for modeling. Four scenarios (scenarios A, B, C, and D) were devised and tested to analyze the effect of each variable on the performance of the models. Among the eight variables, JKM, national balancing point (NBP), and Brent price indexes demonstrated the largest effects on the performance of the ML models. In contrast, the variable of LNG import volume in China had the least effect. The LSTM model showed a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.195, making it the best-performing algorithm. However, the LSTM model demonstrated a decreased in performance of at least 57% during the COVID-19 period, which raises concerns regarding the reliability of the test results obtained during that time. The study compared the ML models’ prediction performances with those of the traditional statistical model, autoregressive integrated moving averages (ARIMA), to verify their effectiveness. The comparison results showed that the LSTM model’s performance deviated by an MAE of 15–22%, which can be attributed to the constraints of the small dataset size and conceptual structural differences between the ML and ARIMA models. However, if a sufficiently large dataset can be secured for training, the ML model is expected to perform better than the ARIMA. Additionally, separate tests were conducted to predict the trends of JKM fluctuations and comprehensively validate the practicality of the ML models. Based on the test results, LSTM model, identified as the optimal ML algorithm, achieved a performance of 53% during the regular period and 57% d during the abnormal period (i.e., COVID-19). Subject matter experts agreed that the performance of the ML models could be improved through additional studies, ultimately reducing the risk of price fluctuations when purchasing spot LNG. Full article

This study analyzes European natural gas (NG) prices since the eve of the 2008 financial crisis. Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients associate prices with and without taxation, whereas a hierarchical clustering analysis clarifies similarities in NG pricing behavior. After performing econometric tests to ensure the satisfaction of classical hypotheses and identify a system of endogenous variables, structured unrestricted and restricted vector autoregressive models are applied to panel data composed of 34 spatial units and 31 units of time drawn from 2007–2022 to confirm the presence of short-term and long-term causal dependencies. The nonparametric analysis identifies three groups of countries that exhibit a differentiated pricing behavior. The parametric analysis reveals a significant and asymmetric short run relation, which is imposed by liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports from Nigeria on the logarithm of NG prices. However, the sign of coefficients associated with lagged LNG imports varies across spatial units belonging to the sample. The error correction term is negative and significant, which implies evidence of cointegration. Since the main result identifies ambiguous short-term effects emerging from the diversification in favor of LNG imports from Nigeria, a straightforward policy recommendation is that this strategic option may be ill advised for Europe and, indirectly, it legitimizes the suggestion that alternative decarbonization options can play a prominent role in European NG markets in the near future. Full article

Driven by China’s booming natural gas consumption market, LNG (Liquified Natural Gas) shipping import has grown rapidly. To facilitate scientific and efficient decision making on LNG shipping fleet deployment and the development of the LNG shipping industry, this article proposes an optimization model to minimize annual fleet operating costs, including voyage cost, running cost, and capital cost. Under the consideration of the mixed factors of self-owned and time charter vessels, epidemic prevention and control, port congestion, transportation time cost, and evaporation loss, as well as navigation security and emergency situations, the validity and optimality of the model are demonstrated by the empirical example and the cost comparison between the conventional and optimized solution. The results show that this optimization model can reduce the total cost by 9.87%. Then, through sensitivity analysis, various significant factors affecting the operating costs of LNG shipping enterprises and their degrees of influence are determined. Based on the analysis of the relevant causes, some actionable countermeasures are recommended, including establishing a shipping price reciprocity mechanism and full chain investment planning, optimizing the inbound link to reduce invalid berthing time, strengthening the construction competitiveness and economy of scale of larger LNG ships, and building a combined dual resource pool transportation mode. This paper contributes to improving transregional maritime energy transport and management capacity, while further enhancing the energy security and development of port cities and their economic hinterlands. Full article

Recent maritime legislation demands the transformation of the transportation sector to greener and more energy efficient. Liquified natural gas (LNG) seems a promising alternative fuel solution that could replace the conventional fuel sources. Various studies have focused on the prediction of the LNG price; however, no previous work has been carried out on the forecast of the spot charter rate of LNG carrier ships, an important factor for the maritime industries and companies when it comes to decision-making. Therefore, this study is focused on the development of a machine learning pipeline to address the aforementioned problem by: (i) forming a dataset with variables relevant to LNG; (ii) identifying the variables that impact the freight price of LNG carrier; (iii) developing and evaluating regression models for short and mid-term forecast. The results showed that the general regression neural network presented a stable overall performance for forecasting periods of 2, 4 and 6 months ahead. Full article

Following the International Maritime Organization (IMO), in order to safeguard the realization of the Paris Agreement on climate protection, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have to be reduced by 50% by the year 2050. This objective shall be reached by decarbonization of maritime traffic, which is why ship operators currently increasingly search for alternative fuels. Moreover, since the start of the Ukrainian war in February 2022, this issue of alternative fuels has gained central importance in political agendas. A promising candidate for clean shipping that meets the IMO goals is ammonia since it is a carbon-free fuel. Ammonia (NH₃) shows good advantages in handling and storage, and it ensures long sea voyages without any significant loss in cargo space for a reasonable price. Hence, ammonia has the potential to improve the environmental footprint of global shipping enormously. Induced by the introduction of stricter regulations in the so-called emission control areas (ECAs) in Northern Europe in 2015 as well as the renewed global sulfur cap, which entered into force in 2020, ship operators had to decide between different compliance methods, among which the most popular solutions are related to the use of expensive low-sulfur fuel oils, newbuilds and retrofits for the usage of liquefied natural gas (LNG) or the installation of scrubber technology. A change to ammonia as a marine alternative fuel represents an additional novel future option, but the successful implementation depends on the availability of NH₃ in the ports, i.e., on the installation of the maritime NH₃ infrastructure. Currently, the single German NH₃ terminal with maritime access is located in Brunsbüttel, the western entrance to Kiel Canal. The distribution of NH₃ from the existing NH₃ hub to other German ports can be analyzed by the mathematical model of an inventory routing problem (IRP) that is usually solved by combinatorial optimization methods. This paper investigates the interrelated research questions, how the distribution of marine NH₃ fuel can be modeled as an IRP, which distribution mode is the most economic one for the German ports and which modal mix for the NH₃ supply leads to the greenest distribution. The results of this paper are empirically validated by data that were collected in several EU projects on sustainable supply chain management and green logistics. The paper includes a special section that is dedicated to the discussion of the economic turbulences related to the Ukrainian war together with their implications on maritime shipping. Full article

Recently, we demonstrated for Curaçao that renewable electricity generation from wind combined with energy storage in the form of ammonia is competitive with imported fossil fuels, such as LNG, oil, and coal. In the current work, we have expanded the model by considering imported green ammonia as an alternative to local electricity generation and storage. Local production of ammonia as an energy storage medium was compared with imported ammonia to make up the electricity produced from onshore wind, for Curaçao and Fiji’s largest island Viti Levu. Curaçao and Viti Levu have been selected as two interesting extremes with favorable and non-favorable wind conditions, respectively. Assuming a market price of 500 USD/t NH₃, it is found that importing ammonia is the most feasible solution for both islands, with a levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of 0.11 USD/kWh for Curaçao and 0.37 USD/kWh for Viti Levu. This compares to 0.12 USD/kWh for Curaçao; however, for Viti Levu, this value increases to 1.10 USD/kWh for a completely islanded system based on onshore wind and imported ammonia. These islands represent two extreme cases in terms of wind load factor and load consistency, as Curaçao has a high and consistent wind load factor when compared to Viti Levu. Thus, the conclusions obtained for these locations are expected to be applicable for other small island developing states. Full article

The main objective of the paper was comparative analyses of natural gas quantities delivered through the existing pipeline capacities in the last decade and new pipeline capacities for the prediction of possible future flows of gas import to Europe. Changes in physical flows have been influenced by European energy strategies that became green oriented resulting with a high amount of non-utilized transmission capacities. The research findings have shown that there is a significant decrease observed in transit of Russian gas through Ukraine in 2020 than previously. Concerning the high increase of LNG import to Europe in the same year, the start of operation of TurkStream, planned start of operation of Nord stream 2, authors project the gradual decrease of transit of Russian gas through Ukraine until the year 2025 with the total stop of transit of Russian gas until the year 2030. The change of supply routes will be also under the economic influence of low gas prices and coal and gas fuel switch until 2030 in the West EU, and after 2030 in the South Eastern European region. In the short-term period transit system for natural gas from Russia via Ukraine will be necessary for supplementing coal with natural gas in the energy mix. Full article

Natural gas plays an important role in energy supply, and its fields of application are diverse. However, the world’s largest growth potential among fossil fuels is attributed to liquefied natural gas (LNG). In the last few years, the U.S. rapidly increased LNG exports, and it is expected that they will further increase the liquefaction capacities. The cost of the LNG value chain is composed of the natural gas price in the country of origin, and the LNG process costs for liquefaction, transportation, storage, and regasification. Thus, the Henry Hub (HH) price in the U.S. is important for U.S. LNG exports to Western Europe. In this paper, gas flows in Western Europe at the beginning of the 2030s are analyzed if the price at HH is higher or lower than expected. Furthermore, the effect of the HH price on monthly U.S. LNG exports are studied. For the calculations, the global gas market model WEGA is used. The results reveal that the price at HH has a significant effect on annual gas flows in Western Europe and also on U.S. LNG exports during the summer. Furthermore, it is shown that pipeline gas in Western Europe will absorb fluctuations of U.S. LNG exports between the presented scenarios. Full article

The Chinese liquid natural gas (LNG) import price has been unstable because the stability of LNG import prices is related to changes in the exchange rates. This paper analyzes the pass-through rate of the Chinese Yuan (CNY) and Japanese Yen (JPY) on the Chinese LNG import price. The Time-Varying Parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model is adopted to verify the pass-through rate of the exchange rates on the LNG import price using the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. Since September 2005, the JPY pass-through rate on the Chinese LNG import price has been decreasing while that of the CNY has been increasing. Notably, the pass-through rate of CNY began to exceed that of JPY after 2008. Moreover, since 2005, the lag effect of the CNY on the Chinese LNG import price became longer compared to JPY. If any new currency reform of the CNY is implemented in the future, then the impact of JPY on the Chinese LNG import price could be reduced and the lag effect of the CNY on the Chinese LNG import price could become longer. Therefore, the fluctuation of the CNY is becoming an important factor in understanding the movements of the Chinese LNG import price. This implies the significance of considering the effect of the exchange rate on an energy market when the market is influenced by a monetary reform of the importing country. Full article