Search Results (57)

Mountain treelines are among the most climate-sensitive ecosystems on Earth, yet their fine-scale structural and species level dynamics remain poorly resolved in the Himalayas. In particular, the absence of three-dimensional, crown level measurements have hindered the detection of structural thresholds and species turnover that often precede treeline shifts. To bridge this gap, we introduce UAV LiDAR—applied for the first time in the Hindu Kush Himalayas—to quantify canopy structure and tree species distributions across a steep treeline ecotone in the Manang Valley of central Nepal. High-density UAV-LiDAR data acquired over elevations of 3504–4119 m was used to quantify elevation-dependent changes in canopy stature and cover from a canopy height model derived from the 3D point cloud, while individual tree segmentation and species classification were performed directly on the 3D, height-normalized point cloud at the crown level. Individual trees were delineated using a watershed-based segmentation algorithm while tree species were classified using a random forest model trained on LiDAR-derived structural and intensity metrics, supported by field-validated reference data. Results reveal a sharply defined treeline characterized by an abrupt collapse in canopy height and cover within a narrow ~60–80 m vertical interval. Treeline “threshold” was quantified as a breakpoint elevation from a piecewise model of tree cover versus elevation, and the elevation span over which modeled cover and height distributions rapidly declined from forest values to near-zero. Segmented regression identified a distinct structural breakpoint near 3995 m elevation. Crown-level species predictions aggregated by elevation quantified an ordered turnover in dominance, with Pinus wallichiana most frequent at lower elevations, Abies spectabilis peaking mid-slope, and Betula utilis concentrated near the upper treeline. Species classification achieved high overall accuracy (>85%), although performance varied among taxa, with broadleaf Betula more difficult to discriminate than conifers. These findings underscore UAV LiDAR’s value for resolving sharp ecological thresholds, identifying elevation-driven simplification in forest structure, and bridging observation gaps in remote, rugged mountain ecosystems. Full article

Glacial lakes in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) are rapidly evolving due to accelerated glacier retreat driven by climate change. Here we present a comprehensive inventory of glacial lakes using Sentinel-1 SAR data with adaptive backscatter thresholding, enabling consistent detection under challenging conditions and improving delineation accuracy. In August 2023, we identified 6019 glacial lakes at scales from 0.001 to 5.80 km², covering a cumulative area of 266 km² (~0.06% of the basin). Although more than 90% of the lakes are smaller than 0.1 km², large lakes (>0.1 km²) account for over 57% of the total lake area. Most lakes are concentrated between 4000 and 4600 m, coinciding with the main glacierized zone. Regional patterns reveal that the Hindu Kush and Himalayas are dominated by glacier erosion lakes (GELs) and moraine-dammed lakes (MDLs), reflecting widespread glacier retreat, whereas the Karakoram is characterized by numerous supraglacial lakes (SGLs) associated with extensive debris-covered glaciers. Compared to previous optical-based inventories, our SAR-based approach captures more lakes and better represents small and transient features such as SGLs. These findings provide a more accurate baseline for assessing cryospheric change and glacial lake hazards in one of the world’s most heavily glacierized basins. Full article

The Third Pole region, particularly the Hindu–Kush–Himalaya (HKH), is highly prone to lightning, causing thousands of fatalities annually. Skillful prediction and timely communication are essential for mitigating lightning-related losses in such observationally data-sparse regions. Therefore, this study evaluates kilometer-scale ICON-CLM-simulated atmospheric variables using six machine learning (ML) models to detect lightning activity over the Third Pole. Results from the ensemble boosting ML models show that ICON-CLM simulated variables such as relative humidity (RH), vorticity (vor), 2m temperature (t_2m), and surface pressure (sfc_pres) among a total of 25 variables allow better spatial and temporal prediction of lightning activities, achieving a Probability of Detection (POD) of ∼0.65. The Lightning Potential Index (LPI) and the product of convective available potential energy (CAPE) and precipitation (prec_con), referred to as CP (i.e., CP = CAPE × precipitation), serve as key physics aware predictors, maintaining a high Probability of Detection (POD) of ∼0.62 with a 1–2 h lead time. Sensitivity analyses additionally using climatological lightning data showed that while ML models maintain comparable accuracy and POD, climatology primarily supports broad spatial patterns rather than fine-scale prediction improvements. As LPI and CP reflect cloud microphysics and atmospheric stability, their inclusion, along with spatiotemporal averaging and climatology, offers slightly lower, yet comparable, predictive skill to that achieved by aggregating 25 atmospheric predictors. Model evaluation using the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) highlights XGBoost as the best-performing diagnostic classification (yes/no lightning) model across all six ML tested configurations. Full article

Some of the most intense thunderstorms and extreme weather events on Earth occur in the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region of Southern Asia. The need to provide end users, stakeholders, and decision makers with accurate forecasts and alerts of extreme weather is critical. To that end, a cutting edge weather modeling framework coined the High Impact Weather Assessment Toolkit (HIWAT) was created through the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) SERVIR Applied Sciences Team (AST) effort, which consists of a suite of varied numerical weather prediction (NWP) model runs to provide probabilities of straight-line damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning, and intense rainfall as part of a daily 54 h forecast tool. The HIWAT system was first deployed in 2018, and the recently released model archive hosted by the Global Hydrometeorology Resource Center (GHRC) Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC) provides daily model outputs for the years of 2018–2022. With a nested modeling domain covering Nepal, Bangladesh, Bhutan, and Northeast India, the HIWAT archive spans the critical pre-monsoon and monsoon months of March–October when severe weather and flooding are most frequent. As part of NASA’s Transformation To Open Science (TOPS), this data archive is freely available to practitioners and researchers. Full article

Forest fires in the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region are increasing in frequency and severity, driven by climate variability, prolonged dry periods, and human activity. Nepal, a critical part of the HKH, recorded over 22,700 forest fire events in the past decade, with fire incidence nearly doubling in 2023. Despite this growing threat, operational early warning systems remain limited. This study presents Nepal’s first high-resolution early fire risk outlook system, developed by adopting the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) using meteorological forecasts from the High-Impact Weather Assessment Toolkit (HIWAT). The system generates daily and two-day forecasts using a fully automated Python-based workflow and publishes results as Web Map Services (WMS). Model validation against MODIS, VIIRS, and ground fire records for 2023 showed that over 80% of fires occurred in zones classified as Moderate to Very High risk. Spatiotemporal analysis confirmed fire seasonality, with peaks in mid-April and over 65% of fires occurring in forested areas. The system’s integration of satellite data and high-resolution forecasts improves the spatial and temporal accuracy of fire danger predictions. This research presents a novel, scalable, and operational framework tailored for data-scarce and topographically complex regions. Its transferability holds substantial potential for strengthening anticipatory fire management and climate adaptation strategies across the HKH and beyond. Full article

The Hindu Kush–Himalaya (HKH) region is an essential component of the global ecosystem, playing a crucial role in global climate regulation and ecological balance. This study employed a remote sensing ecological index (RSEI) with Geodetector to evaluate the eco-environmental quality and its driving factors within the HKH region. Results revealed a statistically significant upward trend (p < 0.05) in eco-environmental quality across the HKH region during 2001–2023, with the average RSEI value increasing by 23.9%. Areas classified as the Good/Excellent grades (RSEI > 0.6) expanded by ~12%, while areas at the Very Poor grade (RSEI ≤ 0.2) shrunk by ~20%. However, areas classified as the Poor (0.2 < RSEI ≤ 0.4) and Moderate (0.4 < RSEI ≤ 0.6) grades increased by ~11% and ~5%, respectively. This resulted in ~11% of the total area degraded across the HKH. Spatially, the highest ecological quality occurred in the southern Himalayan countries (sub-region R2), followed by China’s Tibetan Plateau (sub-region R3), while the northwestern HKH region (sub-region R3) exhibited the lowest ecological quality. Notably, the sub-region R3 and eastern sub-region R1 had the most pronounced improvement. Precipitation and land cover type were the dominant driving factors, exhibiting nonlinear enhancement effects in their interactions, whereas topographic factors (e.g., elevation) had limited but stable influences. These findings elucidate the spatiotemporal dynamics of HKH’s eco-environmental quality and underscore the combined effects of climatic and geomorphic factors, offering a scientific basis for targeted conservation and sustainable development strategies. Full article

Understanding the complex interplay among altitudinal gradients, tree species diversity, structural attributes, and soil carbon (C) is critical for effective coniferous forest management and climate change mitigation. This study addresses a knowledge gap by investigating the effects of altitudinal gradient on coniferous tree diversity, biomass, carbon stock, regeneration, and soil organic carbon storage (SOCs) in the understudied temperate forests of the Hindu-Kush Kalam Valley. Using 120 sample plots 20 × 20 m (400 m²) each via a field inventory approach across five altitudinal gradients [E1 (2000–2200 m)–E5 (2801–3000 m)], we comprehensively analyzed tree structure, composition, and SOCs. A total of four coniferous tree species and 2172 individuals were investigated for this study. Our findings reveal that elevation indirectly influences species diversity, SOCs, and forest regeneration. Notably, tree height has a positive relationship with altitudinal gradients, while tree carbon stock exhibits an inverse relationship. Forest disturbance was high in the middle elevation gradients E2–E4, with high deforestation rate at E1 and E2. Cedrus deodara, the dominant species, showed the highest deforestation rate at lower elevations (R² = 0.72; p < 0.05) and regeneration ability (R² = 0.77; p < 0.05), which declined with increasing elevation. Middle elevations had the highest litter carbon stock and SOCs values emphasizing the critical role of elevation gradients in carbon sink and species distribution. The regeneration status and number of trees per ha in Kalam Valley forests showed a significant decline with increasing elevation (p < 0.05), with Cedrus deodara recording the highest regeneration rate at E1 and Abies pindrow the lowest at E5. The PCA revealed that altitudinal gradients factor dominate variability via PCA1, while the Shannon and Simpson Indices drives PCA2, highlighting ecological diversity’s independent role in shaping distinct yet complementary vegetative and ecological perspectives. This study reveals how altitudinal gradients shape forest structure and carbon sequestration, offering critical insights for biodiversity conservation and climate-resilient forest management. Full article

Mountain regions are particularly sensitive and vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Over the past three decades, mountain temperatures have risen significantly faster than those in lowland areas. The Hindu Kush–Karakoram–Himalaya region, often referred to as the “water tower of Asia”, is the largest freshwater source outside the polar regions. However, it is currently undergoing cryospheric degradation as a result of climatic change. In this study, the Normalized Difference Glacier Index (NDGI) was calculated using Landsat and Sentinel satellite images. The results revealed that glaciers in Chitral, located in the Eastern Hindu Kush Mountains of Pakistan, lost 816 km² (31%) of their total area between 1992 and 2022. On average, 27 km² of glacier area was lost annually, with recession accelerating between 1997 and 2002 and again after 2007. Satellite analyses also indicated a significant increase in both maximum (+7.3 °C) and minimum (+3.6 °C) land surface temperatures between 1992 and 2022. Climate data analyses using the Mann–Kendall test, Theil–Sen Slope method, and the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model showed a clear increase in air temperatures from 1967 to 2022, particularly during the summer months (June, July, and August). This warming trend is expected to continue until at least 2042. Over the same period, annual precipitation decreased, primarily due to reduced snowfall in winter. However, rainfall may have slightly increased during the summer months, further accelerating glacial melting. Additionally, the snowmelt season began consistently earlier. While initial glacier melting may temporarily boost water resources, it also poses risks to communities and economies, particularly through more frequent and larger floods. Over time, the remaining smaller glaciers will contribute only a fraction of the former runoff, leading to potential water stress. As such, monitoring glaciers, climate change, and runoff patterns is critical for sustainable water management and strengthening resilience in the region. Full article

This study examines adaptation strategies to mitigate the risks posed by Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) in the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region, encompassing Pakistan, India, Nepal, Bhutan, and Afghanistan. GLOFs occur when water is suddenly released from glacial lakes and they present significant threats to communities, infrastructure, and ecosystems in high-altitude regions, particularly as climate change intensifies their frequencies and severity. While there are many studies on the changes in glacial lakes, studies on adaptation to GLOF risks are scant. Also, these studies tend to focus on case-specific scenarios, leaving a gap in comprehensive, region-wide analyses. This review article aims to fill that gap by synthesizing the adaptation strategies adopted across the HKH region. We conducted a literature review following several inclusion and exclusion criteria and reviewed 23 scholarly sources on GLOF adaptation. We qualitatively synthesized the data and categorized the adaptation strategies into two main types: structural and non-structural. Structural measures include engineering solutions such as lake-level control, channel modifications, and flood defense infrastructure, designed to reduce the physical damage caused by GLOFs. Non-structural measures include community-based practices, economic diversification, awareness programs, and improvements in institutional governance, addressing social and economic vulnerabilities. We found that Afghanistan remains underrepresented in GLOF-related studies, with only one article that specifically focuses on GLOFs, while Nepal and Pakistan receive greater attention in research. The findings underscore the need for a holistic, context-specific approach that integrates both structural and non-structural measures to enhance resilience across the HKH region. Policy-makers should prioritize the development of sustainable mechanisms to support long-term adaptation efforts, foster cross-border collaborations for data sharing and coordinated risk management, and ensure that adaptation strategies are inclusive of vulnerable communities. Practitioners should focus on strengthening early warning systems, expanding community-based adaptation initiatives, and integrating traditional knowledge with modern scientific approaches to enhance local resilience. By adopting a collaborative and regionally coordinated approach, stakeholders can improve GLOF risk preparedness, mitigate socioeconomic impacts, and build long-term resilience in South Asia’s high-altitude regions. Full article

Afghanistan is located on the Eurasian tectonic plate’s edge, a highly seismically active region. It is bordered by the northern boundary of the Indian plate and influenced by the collisional Arabian plate to the south. The Hindu Kush and Pamir Mountains in Afghanistan are part of the western extension of the Himalayan orogeny and have been uplifted and sheared by the convergence of the Indian and Eurasian plates. These tectonic activities have generated numerous active deep faults across the Hindu Kush–Himalayan region, many of which intersect Afghanistan, resulting in frequent high-magnitude earthquakes. This tectonic interaction produces ground shaking of varying intensity, from high to moderate and low, with the epicenters often located in the northeast and extending southwest across the country. This study maps Afghanistan’s tectonic structures, identifying the most active geological faults and regions with heightened seismicity. Historical earthquake data were reviewed, and recent destructive events were incorporated into the national earthquake dataset to improve disaster management strategies. Additionally, the study addresses earthquake hazards related to building and infrastructure design, offering potential solutions and directions to mitigate risks to life and property. Full article

This study presents a 3D seismic velocity model of the crust beneath northwestern Iran. The data include arrival times of 76,589 P-waves and 10,796 S-waves from 7245 events recorded by 233 stations. The seismic velocity model presented in this research provides a detailed understanding of the crustal structure and tectonic processes shaping northwestern Iran. The interplay between volcanism, fault activity and mantle dynamics has produced a complex velocity structure. The findings in the region offer new insights into the geodynamic evolution of this tectonically active area. Understanding these features is crucial for assessing the region’s seismic hazard and geothermal potential, particularly in light of its active tectonic faults and volcanic systems. Moreover, the crust of northwestern Iran represents a two-layered structure: a high P-velocity upper crust and low-velocity lower crust. The authors documented a similar structure on the basis of tomographic data of different collision regions, such as Eastern Anatolia, Tien Shan and Pamir–Hindu Kush. The structure concerned is supposed to be due to delamination processes in the upper mantle. Full article

The Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region, known as the “water tower of the world,” is experiencing severe water scarcity due to declining discharge of spring water across the HKH region. This decline is driven by climate change, unsustainable human activities, and rising water demand, leading to significant impacts on rural agriculture, urban migration, and socio-economic stability. This expansive review judiciously combines both the researchers’ experiences and a traditional literature review. This review investigates the factors behind reduced spring discharge and advocates for a transdisciplinary approach to address the issue. It stresses integrating scientific knowledge with community-based interventions, recognizing that water management involves not just technical solutions but also human values, behaviors, and political considerations. The paper explores the benefits of public–private partnerships (PPPs) and participatory approaches for large-scale spring rejuvenation. By combining the strengths of both sectors and engaging local communities, sustainable spring water management can be achieved through collaborative and inclusive strategies. It also highlights the need for capacity development and knowledge transfer, including training local hydrogeologists, mapping recharge areas, and implementing sustainable land use practices. In summary, the review offers insights and recommendations for tackling declining spring discharge in the HKH region. By promoting a transdisciplinary, community-centric approach, it aims to support policymakers, researchers, and practitioners in ensuring the sustainable management of water resources and contributing to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Full article

The Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) is one of the most flood-prone regions in the world, yet heavy cloud cover and limited in situ observations have hampered efforts to monitor the impact of heavy rainfall, flooding, and inundation during severe weather events. This paper introduces HydroSAR, a Sentinel-1 SAR-based hazard monitoring service which was co-developed with in-region partners to provide year-round, low-latency weather hazard information across the HKH. This paper describes the end user-focused concept and overall design of the HydroSAR service. It introduces the main processing algorithms behind HydroSAR’s broad product portfolio, which includes qualitative visual layers as well as quantitative products measuring the surface water extent and water depth. We summarize the cloud-based implementation of the developed service, which provides the capability to scale automatically with the event size. A performance assessment of our quantitative algorithms is described, demonstrating the capabilities to map the flood extent and water depth with an accuracy of >90% and <1 m, respectively. An application of the HydroSAR service to the 2023 South Asia monsoon seasons showed that monsoon floods peaked near 6 August 2023 and covered 11.6% of Bangladesh in water. At the peak of the flood season, nearly 13.5% of Bangladesh’s agriculture areas were affected. Full article

Investigating the changes in snow cover caused by climate change is extremely important and has attracted increasing attention in cryosphere and climate research. Optimal remote sensing-based snow datasets can provide long-term daily and global spatial-temporal snow-cover distribution at regional and global scales. However, the application of these snow-cover products is inevitably limited because of the space–time discontinuities caused by cloud obscuration, which poses a significant challenge in snowpack-related studies, especially in High Mountain Asia (HMA), an area that has high-elevation mountains, complex terrain, and harsh environments and has fewer observation stations. To address this issue, we developed an improved five-step hybrid cloud removal strategy by integrating the daily merged snow-cover probability (SCP) algorithm, eight-day merged SCP algorithm, decision tree algorithm, temporal downscaling algorithm, and optimal threshold segmentation algorithm to produce a 21-year, daily cloud-free snow-cover dataset using two daily MODIS snow-cover products over the HMA. The accuracy assessment demonstrated that the newly developed cloud-free snow-cover product achieved a mean overall accuracy of 93.80%, based on daily classified snow depth observations from 86 meteorological stations over 10 years. The time series of the daily percentage of binary snow-cover over HMA was analyzed during this period, indicating that the maximum snow cover tended to change more dramatically than the minimum snow cover. The annual snow-cover duration (SCD) experienced an insignificantly increasing trend over most of the northeastern and southwestern HMA (e.g., Qilian, eastern Kun Lun, the east of Inner Tibet, the western Himalayas, the central Himalayas, and the Hindu Kush) and an insignificant declining trend over most of the northwestern and southeastern HMA (e.g., the eastern Himalayas, Hengduan, the west of Inner Tibet, Pamir, Hissar Alay, and Tien). This new high-quality snow-cover dataset will promote studies on climate systems, hydrological modeling, and water resource management in this remote and cold region. Full article

The rapid advancement of machine learning techniques has led to their widespread application in various domains, including water resources. However, snowmelt modeling remains an area that has not been extensively explored. In this study, we propose a state-of-the-art (SOTA) deep learning sequential model, leveraging a Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN), for snowmelt forecasting of the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region. To evaluate the performance of our proposed model, we conducted a comparative analysis with other popular models, including Support Vector Regression (SVR), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and Transformer models. Furthermore, nested cross-validation (CV) was used with five outer folds and three inner folds, and hyperparameter tuning was performed on the inner folds. To evaluate the performance of the model, the Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root-Mean-Square Error (RMSE), R square ($R^2$), Kling–Gupta Efficiency (KGE), and Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) were computed for each outer fold. The average metrics revealed that the TCN outperformed the other models, with an average MAE of 0.011, RMSE of 0.023, $R^2$ of 0.991, KGE of 0.992, and NSE of 0.991 for one-day forecasts of streamflow. The findings of this study demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed deep learning model as compared to traditional machine learning approaches for snowmelt-driven streamflow forecasting. Moreover, the superior performance of this TCN highlights its potential as a promising deep learning model for similar hydrological applications. Full article