Search Results (28)

The dynamic and uncertain nature of financial markets presents significant challenges in accurately predicting portfolio returns due to inherent volatility and instability. This study investigates the potential of logistic regression to enhance the accuracy and robustness of return classification models, addressing challenges in dynamic portfolio optimization. We propose a price-aware logistic regression (PALR) framework to classify dynamic portfolio returns. This approach integrates price movements as key features alongside traditional portfolio optimization techniques, enabling the identification and analysis of patterns and relationships within historical financial data. Unlike conventional methods, PALR dynamically adapts to market trends by incorporating historical price data and derived indicators, leading to more accurate classification of portfolio returns. Historical market data from the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and Hang Seng Index (HSI) were used to train and test the model. The proposed scheme achieves an accuracy of 99.88%, a mean squared error (MSE) of 0.0006, and an AUC of 99.94% on the DJIA dataset. When evaluated on the HSI dataset, it attains a classification accuracy of 99.89%, an AUC of 99.89%, and an MSE of 0.011. The results demonstrate that PALR significantly improves classification accuracy and AUC while reducing MSE compared to conventional techniques. The proposed PALR model serves as a valuable tool for return classification and optimization, enabling investors, assets, and portfolio managers to make more informed and effective decisions. Full article

Stock return prediction is a pivotal yet intricate task in financial markets, challenged by volatility and multifaceted dependencies. This study proposes a hybrid model integrating long short-term memory (LSTM) networks and graph convolutional networks (GCNs) to enhance accuracy by capturing both temporal dynamics and spatial inter-stock relationships. Tested on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 (SSE50), and China Securities Index 100 (CSI 100), our LSTM-GCN model outperforms baselines—LSTM, GCN, RNN, GRU, BP, decision tree, and SVM—achieving the lowest mean squared error (e.g., 0.0055 on DJIA), mean absolute error, and highest R² values. This superior performance stems from the synergistic interaction of spatio-temporal features, offering a robust tool for investors and policymakers. Future enhancements could incorporate sentiment analysis and dynamic graph structures. Full article

Efficient management of bankruptcy risk requires treating distant-to-default (DD) stochastically as long as historical stock prices move randomly and, thus, do not guarantee that history may repeat itself. Using long-term data that date back to 1952–2023, including the nonfinancial companies listed in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations indexes, this study estimates the historical and stochastic DDs via the geometric Brownian motion (GBM). The results show that (a) the association between the debt-to-equity ratio and the stochastic DD can be used as an indicator of excessive debt financing; (b) debt tax savings have a positive effect on stochastic DD; (c) bankruptcy costs have negative effects on stochastic DD; (d) in terms of the size of the company being proxied by sales revenue and the equity market value of the company, the DD is a reliable measure of bankruptcy costs; (e) in terms of macroeconomic influences, increases in the percentage change in manufacturing output are associated with lower observed and stochastic DD; and (f) in terms of the influences of industry, the stochastic DD is affected by the industry average retail inventory to sales. This paper contributes to related studies in terms of focusing on the indicators that a company’s management can focus on to address the stochastic patterns inherent in the estimation of the DD. Full article

This study investigates the multifractal properties of daily returns of the Standard and Poor’s 500 Index (SPX), the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI), and the Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC), the three main indices representing the U.S. stock market, from 1 January 2005 to 1 November 2024. The multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) method is applied in this study. The origins of the multifractal properties of these returns are both long-range correlation and fat-tail distribution properties. Our findings show that the SPX exhibits the highest multifractal degree, and the DJI exhibits the lowest for the whole sample. This study also examines the multifractal behaviors of cross-correlations among the three major indices through the multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MF-DCCA) method. It is concluded that the indices are cross-correlated and the cross-correlations also exhibit multifractal properties. Meanwhile, these returns exhibit different multifractal properties in different stages of the market, which shows some asymmetrical dynamics of the multifractal properties. These empirical results may have some important managerial and academic implications for investors, policy makers, and other market participants. Full article

We study recent monthly data to help long-term investors buy or sell from the 30 Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Index components. The recommendations are based on six stock-picking algorithms and their average ranks. We explain the reasons for ignoring the claim that the Sharpe ratio algorithm lacks monotonicity. Since the version of “omega” in the literature uses weights that distort the actual gain–pain ratio faced by investors, we propose new weights. We use data from 30 stocks using the past 474 months (39+ years) of monthly closing prices, ending in May 2024. Our buy-sell recommendations also use newer “pandemic-proof” out-of-sample portfolio performance comparisons from the R package ‘generalCorr’. We report twelve sets of ranks for both out-of- and in-sample versions of the six algorithms. Averaging the twelve sets yields the top and bottom k stocks. For example, $k=2$ suggests buying Visa Inc. and Johnson & Johnson while selling Coca-Cola and Procter & Gamble. Full article

This study delves into the impacts of the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC) and the COVID-19 health crisis on U.S. financial indices, exploring the intricate relationship between economic shocks and these indices during downturns. Using Markov switching regression models and control variables, including GDP, consumer sentiment, industrial production, and the ratio of inventories-to-sale, it quantifies the effects of these crises on the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500), and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) from Q1 2000 to Q2 2023, covering crucial moments of both crises and stable periods (dichotomous variables). Results reveal that the 2008 crisis significantly heightened financial volatility and depreciated the valuation of S&P 500 and DJIA indicators, while the COVID-19 crisis had a diverse impact on market dynamics, particularly negatively affecting specific sectors. This study underscores the importance of consumer confidence and inventory management in mitigating financial volatility and emphasises the need for robust policy measures to address economic shocks, enhance financial stability, and alleviate future crises, especially during endogenous crises such as financial downturns. This research sheds light on the nuanced impact of crises on financial markets and the broader economy, revealing the intricate dynamics shaping market behaviour during turbulent times. Full article

In this article, we introduce the multifractal conditional diffusion entropy method for analyzing the volatility of financial time series. This method utilizes a q-order diffusion entropy based on a q-weighted time lag scale. The technique of conditional diffusion entropy proves valuable for examining bull and bear behaviors in stock markets across various time scales. Empirical findings from analyzing the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) indicate that employing multi-time lag scales offers greater insight into the complex dynamics of highly fluctuating time series, often characterized by multifractal behavior. A smaller time scale like $t=2$ to $t=256$ coincides more with the state of the DJI index than larger time scales like $t=256$ to $t=1024$. We observe extreme fluctuations in the conditional diffusion entropy for DJI for a short time lag, while smoother or averaged fluctuations occur over larger time lags. Full article

This study aims to empirically examine the relationship between cryptocurrency and various facets of the financial system. It seeks to provide a comprehensive understanding of how cryptocurrencies interact with, and influence, the stock market, the U.S. dollar’s strength, inflation rates, and traditional banking operations. This is carried out using linear regression models, Granger causality tests, case studies, including the collapse of the Futures Exchange (FTX), and the successful integration of Binance. The study unveiled a strong positive correlation between cryptocurrency market capitalization and key financial indicators like the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Consumer Price Index, and traditional banking operations. This indicates the growing significance of cryptocurrencies within the global financial landscape. However, a mild association was found with the U.S. dollar, suggesting a limited influence of cryptocurrencies on traditional fiat currencies currently. Despite certain limitations such as reliance on secondary data, methodological choices, and geographic focus, this research provides valuable insights for policymakers, financial industry stakeholders, and academic researchers, underlining the necessity for continued study into the complex interplay between cryptocurrencies and financial stability. Full article

This study explored the complex interplay and potential risk of financial contagion across major financial indices, focusing on the Bucharest Exchange Trading Investment Funds Index (BET-FI), along with global indices like the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite (IXIC), and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). Our analysis covered an extensive period from 2012 to 2023, with a particular emphasis on Romania’s financial market. We employed Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modeling to examine the interrelations among these indices, treating the BET-FI index as our primary variable. Our research also integrated Exponential Curve Fitting (EXCF) and Generalized Supremum Augmented Dickey–Fuller (GSADF) models to identify and scrutinize potential price bubbles in these indices. We analyzed moments of high volatility and deviations from typical market trends, influenced by diverse factors like government policies, presidential elections, tech sector performance, the COVID-19 pandemic, and geopolitical tensions, specifically the Russia–Ukraine conflict. The ARDL model revealed a stable long-term relationship among the variables, indicating their interconnectedness. Our study also highlights the significance of short-term market shifts leading to long-term equilibrium, as shown in the Error Correction Model (ECM). This suggests the existence of contagion effects, where small, short-term incidents can trigger long-term, domino-like impacts on the financial markets. Furthermore, our variance decomposition examined the evolving contributions of different factors over time, shedding light on their changing interactions and impact. The Cholesky factors demonstrated the interdependence between indices, essential for understanding financial contagion effects. Our research thus uncovered the nuanced dynamics of financial contagion, offering insights into market variations, the effectiveness of our models, and strategies for detecting financial bubbles. This study contributes valuable knowledge to the academic field and offers practical insights for investors in turbulent financial environments. Full article

This study discusses how financial economic theory and its quantitative tools can be applied to create socioeconomic indices and develop a financial market for the so-called “socioeconomic well-being indices”. In this study, we quantify socioeconomic well-being by assigning a dollar value to the well-being factors of selected countries; this is analogous to how the Dow 30 encapsulates the financial health of the US market. While environmental, social, and governance (ESG) financial markets address socioeconomic issues, our focus is broader, encompassing national citizens’ well-being. The dollar-denominated socioeconomic indices for each country can be viewed as financial assets that can serve as risky assets for constructing a global index, which, in turn, serves as a “market of well-being socioeconomic index”. This novel global index of well-being, paralleling the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), provides a comprehensive representation of the world’s socioeconomic status. Through advanced financial econometrics and dynamic asset pricing methodologies, we evaluate the potential for significant downturns in both the socioeconomic well-being indices of individual countries and the aggregate global index. This innovative approach allows us to engineer financial instruments akin to portfolio insurance, such as index puts, designed to hedge against these downturn risks. Our findings propose a financial market model for well-being indices, encouraging the financial industry to adopt and trade these indices as mechanisms to manage and hedge against downturn risks in well-being. Full article

A key parameter when investing is Time Horizon. One of the biggest mistakes investors make is not aligning the timeline of their goals with their investment portfolio. In other words, time horizons determine the investment portfolio you should construct. We examine which portfolios are the best for long-term investing, short-term investing, and intraday trading. This study presents a novel approach for portfolio construction based on Network Science. We use daily returns of stocks that compose the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) for a 25-year period from 1998 to 2022. Stock networks are estimated from (i) Pearson correlation (undirected linear statistical correlations), as well as (ii) Transfer Entropy (directed non-linear causal relationships). Portfolios are constructed in two main ways: (a) only four stocks are selected, depending on their centrality, with Markowitz investing weights, or (b) all stocks are selected with centrality-based investing weights. Portfolio performance is evaluated in terms of the following indicators: return, risk (total and systematic), and risk-adjusted return (Sharpe ratio and Treynor ratio). Results are compared against two benchmarks: the index DJIA, and the Markowitz portfolio based on Modern Portfolio Theory. The key findings are as follows: (1) Peripheral portfolios of low centrality stocks based on Pearson correlation network are the best in the long-term, achieving an extremely high cumulative return of around 3000% as well as high risk-adjusted return; (2) Markowitz portfolio is the safest in the long-term, while on the contrary, central portfolios of high centrality stocks based on Pearson correlation network are the riskiest; (3) In times of crisis, no portfolio is always the best. However, portfolios based on Transfer Entropy network perform better in most of the crises; (4) Portfolios of all stocks selected with centrality-based investing weights outperform in both short-term investing and intraday trading. A stock brokerage company may utilize the above findings of our work to enhance its portfolio management services. Full article

Sustainable economic development plans have been shattered by the devastating COVID-19 crisis, which brought about an economic recession. The companies are suffering from financial losses, leading to financial distress and disengagement from sustainable economic goals. Many companies fail to achieve considerable financial performances, which may lead to unachieved organizational goal and a loss of direction in decision-making and investment. According to the past studies, there has been no comprehensive study done on the financial performance of the companies based on liquidity, solvency, efficiency, and profitability ratios by integrating the entropy method and fuzzy technique for order reference based on similarity to the ideal solution (TOPSIS) model in portfolio investment. Therefore, this paper aims to propose a multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) model, namely the entropy-fuzzy TOPSIS model, to evaluate the financial performances of companies based on these important financial ratios for portfolio investment. The fuzzy concept helps reduce vagueness and strengthen the meaningful information extracted from the financial ratios. The proposed model is illustrated using the financial ratios of companies in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The results show that return on equity and debt-to-equity ratios are the most influential financial ratios for the performance evaluation of the companies. The companies with good financial performance, such as the best HD company, have been determined based on the proposed model for portfolio selection. A mean-variance (MV) model is used to validate the proposed model in the portfolio investment. At a minimum level of risk, the proposed model is able to generate a higher mean return than the benchmark DJIA index. This paper is significant as it helps to evaluate the financial performance of the companies and select the well-performing companies with the proposed model for portfolio investment. Full article

In this paper, we propose a multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) model by integrating the entropy–DEMATEL with TOPSIS model to analyze the causal relationship of financial ratios towards the financial performance of the companies. The proposed model is illustrated using the financial data of the companies of Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The financial network analysis using entropy–DEMATEL shows that the financial ratios such as debt to equity ratio (DER) and return on equity (ROE) are classified into the cause criteria group, whereas current ratio (CR), earnings per share (EPS), return on asset (ROA) and debt to assets ratio (DAR) are categorized into the effect criteria group. The top three most influential financial ratios are ROE, CR and DER. The significance of this paper is to determine the causal relationship of financial network towards the financial performance of the companies with the proposed entropy–DEMATEL–TOPSIS model. The ranking identification of the companies in this study is beneficial to the investors to select the companies with good performance in portfolio investment. The proposed model has been applied and validated in the portfolio investment using a mean-variance model based on the selection of companies with good performance. The results show that the proposed model is able to generate higher mean return than the benchmark DJIA index at minimum risk. However, short sale is not allowed for the applicability of the proposed model in portfolio investment. Full article

In the past decade, the application of deep reinforcement learning (DRL) in portfolio management has attracted extensive attention. However, most classical RL algorithms do not consider the exogenous and noise of financial time series data, which may lead to treacherous trading decisions. To address this issue, we propose a novel anti-risk portfolio trading method based on deep reinforcement learning (DRL). It consists of a stacked sparse denoising autoencoder (SSDAE) network and an actor–critic based reinforcement learning (RL) agent. SSDAE will carry out off-line training first, while the decoder will used for on-line feature extraction in each state. The SSDAE network is used for the noise resistance training of financial data. The actor–critic algorithm we use is advantage actor–critic (A2C) and consists of two networks: the actor network learns and implements an investment policy, which is then evaluated by the critic network to determine the best action plan by continuously redistributing various portfolio assets, taking Sharp ratio as the optimization function. Through extensive experiments, the results show that our proposed method is effective and superior to the Dow Jones Industrial Average index (DJIA), several variants of our proposed method, and a state-of-the-art (SOTA) method. Full article

To take into account the temporal dimension of uncertainty in stock markets, this paper introduces a cross-sectional estimation of stock market volatility based on the intrinsic entropy model. The proposed cross-sectional intrinsic entropy (CSIE) is defined and computed as a daily volatility estimate for the entire market, grounded on the daily traded prices—open, high, low, and close prices (OHLC)—along with the daily traded volume for all symbols listed on The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and The National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations (NASDAQ). We perform a comparative analysis between the time series obtained from the CSIE and the historical volatility as provided by the estimators: close-to-close, Parkinson, Garman–Klass, Rogers–Satchell, Yang–Zhang, and intrinsic entropy (IE), defined and computed from historical OHLC daily prices of the Standard & Poor’s 500 index (S&P500), Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), and the NASDAQ Composite index, respectively, for various time intervals. Our study uses an approximate 6000-day reference point, starting 1 January 2001, until 23 January 2022, for both the NYSE and the NASDAQ. We found that the CSIE market volatility estimator is consistently at least 10 times more sensitive to market changes, compared to the volatility estimate captured through the market indices. Furthermore, beta values confirm a consistently lower volatility risk for market indices overall, between 50% and 90% lower, compared to the volatility risk of the entire market in various time intervals and rolling windows. Full article