Search Results (52)

This article presents an integrated assessment of pasture ecosystem degradation under conditions of extreme aridity in the Atyrau Region, where high livestock density, limited grazing capacity, and institutional fragmentation of land tenure exacerbate degradation risks. The study aimed to conduct a spatio-temporal analysis of pasture conditions and identify critical load zones to support sustainable management strategies. The methodology was based on a multi-factor Anthropogenic Load (AL) model integrating (1) calculation of pasture load (PL) using 2023 agricultural statistics with livestock numbers converted into livestock units; (2) spatial analysis of grazing concentration through Kernel Density Estimation in ArcGIS 10.8; (3) assessment of infrastructural accessibility (Accessibility Index, A_i); and (4) quantitative evaluation of institutional land use organization (Institutional Index, I_i). This integrative approach enabled the identification of stable, transitional, and critically overloaded zones and provided a cartographic basis for sustainable management. Results revealed persistent degradation hotspots within 3–5 km of water sources and settlements, while up to 40% of productive pastures remain excluded from use. The proposed AL model demonstrated high reproducibility and applicability for environmental monitoring and regional land use planning in arid regions of Central Asia. Full article

Extreme precipitation events, increasingly driven by climate change, are becoming more frequent and pose significant challenges to both the ecological environment and human society. Using the MSWEP data, this study constructed eight event-based extreme precipitation indicators so as to systematically analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics and dominant types of extreme precipitation across Central Asia and its three sub-regions from 1979 to 2023. The results revealed the following: (1) Extreme precipitation events exhibit a pronounced spatial preference for high-altitude areas, with the total number of events reaching up to 698 in these regions. (2) From 1979 to 1991, the frequency of extreme precipitation events has decreased in Central Asia (by 1.742 events per 13 years), while their duration has however increased (by 0.52 days per 13 years). The period from 1992 to 2009 experienced the most significant and widespread decline in the magnitude of extreme precipitation indicators. In contrast, from 2010 to 2023, all indicators—except for the event frequency (EF) and event intensity (EI)—have shown rising tendencies across the region. (3) Regarding the dominant event types, based on the proportion of extreme precipitation frequency across areas, the Southwestern Desert (SD) and northern Kazakhstan (NK) regions are characterized by a more prominent combination of rear-peak (TDP2) and front-peak (TDP1) events, whereas the southeastern mountains (SM) region is rather dominated by a combination of rear-peak (TDP2) and balanced-type (TDP3) events. (4) The EF and event duration (ED) are strongly associated with the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and Aridity Index (AI). The spatial patterns of EF and ED are closely linked, with the sub-humid and mountainous regions demonstrating the highest frequency and longest duration of extreme precipitation events. Full article

Under the context of global climate change, aridity responses exhibit significant differences across various latitudinal zones, and quantifying the dependency relationship between aridity and latitudinal zones is of great importance for differentiated water resource management. The Lancang River Basin in China spans 13 latitudinal zones with distinct altitudinal gradients, making it crucial to analyze the relationship between long-term aridity variation patterns and latitude for understanding basin hydrological response mechanisms. This study adopted the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) aridity index definition and utilized publicly available high-resolution datasets to divide the Chinese Lancang River Basin into 26 regions at 0.5° N intervals. The spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of the aridity index at interannual and seasonal scales from 1940 to 2022 were analyzed, and the trends of aridity index changes and their relationship with latitude were quantified. Results indicate: (1) The spring aridity index increased significantly (trend rate of 0.015/10a, Z = 2.39), driving an overall basin-wide humidification trend. (2) The aridity index exhibited significant spatial and seasonal differences with latitude: southern regions (south of 24.75° N) showed negative correlations, northern regions (north of 30.5° N) showed positive correlations, while central regions displayed distinct seasonal transitions and spatial differentiation characteristics bounded by 27.25° N. (3) The rate of aridity index change in regions north of 27.25° N was significantly higher than in southern regions (p < 0.001). This study reveals the latitudinal patterns of AI changes in the Lancang River Basin, providing guidance for developing adaptive water resource allocation strategies under climate change scenarios. Full article

Evapotranspiration (ET) estimation is crucial for sustainable water resource management in arid and semi-arid regions, particularly in the Arab world, where water scarcity remains a significant challenge. The objectives of this study were to map dominant ET estimation techniques and their geographic distribution, demonstrate fusion-based ET estimation under data-scarce conditions, and examine their alignment with climate change and food security priorities. The study reviewed 1279 ET-related articles indexed in the Web of Science, highlighting methodological trends, regional disparities, and the emergence of data-driven techniques. The results showed that traditional methods—primarily the Penman-Monteith model—dominate nearly 70% of the literature. In contrast, machine learning (ML), remote sensing (RS), and artificial intelligence (AI) collectively account for approximately 30%, with hybrid fusion frameworks appearing in only 2% of studies. ML applications are concentrated in Morocco, Egypt, and Iraq, while 50% of Arab countries lack any ML or AI-based research on energy transition (ET). Complementing the bibliometric analysis, this study demonstrates the practical potential of ML-based ET fusion using Landsat and the FAO Water Productivity (WaPOR) data within Saudi Arabia. A random forest model outperformed traditional averaging, reducing the mean absolute error (MAE) to 215.08 mm/year and the root mean square error (RMSE) to 531.34 mm/year, with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.86. The findings advocate for greater support and regional collaboration to advance ET monitoring and integrate ML-based modelling into climate resilience frameworks. Full article

This study analyzes spatiotemporal aridity dynamics in Central Kazakhstan (1960–2022) using a monthly Aridity Index (AI = P/PET), where P is precipitation and PET is potential evapotranspiration, Mann–Kendall trend analysis, and climate zone classification. Results reveal a northeast–southwest aridity gradient, with Aridity Index ranging from 0.11 to 0.14 in southern deserts to 0.43 in the Kazakh Uplands. Between 1960–1990 and 1991–2022, southern regions experienced intensified aridity, with Aridity Index declining from 0.12–0.15 to 0.10–0.14, while northern mountainous areas became more humid, where Aridity Index increased from 0.40–0.44 to 0.41–0.46. Seasonal analysis reveals divergent patterns, with winter showing improved moisture conditions (52.4% reduction in arid lands), contrasting sharply with aridification in spring and summer. Summer emerges as the most extreme season, with hyper-arid zones (8%) along with expanding arid territories (69%), while autumn shows intermediate conditions with notable dry sub-humid areas (5%) in northwestern regions. Statistical analysis confirms these observations, with northern areas showing positive Aridity Index trends (+0.007/10 years) against southwestern declines (−0.003/10 years). Key drivers include rising temperatures (with recent degradation) and variable precipitation (long-term drying followed by winter and spring), and PET fluctuations linked to temperature. Since 1991, arid zones have expanded from 40% to 47% of the region, with semi-arid lands transitioning to arid, with a northward shift of the boundary. These changes are strongly seasonal, highlighting the vulnerability of Central Kazakhstan to climate-driven aridification. Full article

In the context of global climate change, the sensitivity of ecosystem services (ESs) and their relationships to aridity are increasing, and the areas affected by aridity continue to expand. Previous research has largely focused on ES changes in arid regions under intensified aridity conditions and has overlooked humid and semi-humid regions, which are more sensitive to water loss. In this study, we applied a generalized additive model (GAM) to analyze the nonlinear responses of ES trade-offs to aridity in humid and semi-humid regions. The results indicated that at an aridity index (AI) of approximately 0.26, the trade-off intensity of two ES pairs—carbon sequestration vs. water yield and habitat quality vs. water yield—reached a peak. Additionally, structural equation modeling (SEM) based on threshold partitioning revealed significant shifts in ES trade-off drivers below and above the AI threshold. In areas with AI < 0.26, worsening meteorological and soil conditions exacerbated ES trade-offs, whereas in areas with AI > 0.26, competition for water resources between human activities and vegetation became the primary driver of intensified trade-offs. These findings highlight the need for targeted management strategies to maintain ecosystem stability in humid and semi-humid regions and provide valuable guidance for responding to increasing aridity risks. Full article

Thornthwaite’s water balance approach serves as a fundamental tool for assessing hydrological dynamics, particularly in regions vulnerable to aridity and water stress. This study evaluates the performance of gridded datasets in estimating Thornthwaite’s water balance attributes in Greece, leveraging climatic averages of the period 1960–1997. Ground station data from 91 meteorological sites and gridded data from the Climate Research Unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia were utilized to assess key water balance components. The results indicate that while gridded datasets offer an alternative for regions with limited ground data, local calibration is required due to notable discrepancies. More specifically, it was found that gridded data tended to underestimate precipitation, with estimates approximately 25% lower compared to ground station data. The potential evapotranspiration (PET) estimates using gridded data were more accurate, with underestimation on the order of 10%. Moreover, the gridded data produced overestimations for all of the water balance key components including soil moisture (St), monthly changes in soil moisture (ΔSt), and actual evapotranspiration (AE) compared to the ground station data. The water surplus (S) estimates showed a significant dispersion of values when using the gridded data, particularly in regions characterized by more arid conditions. In addition, the application of gridded data led to a great increase in the aridity index (AI) values, altering the desertification classification of sites from semi-arid to sub-humid or humid categories. These findings underscore the importance of careful consideration when utilizing gridded datasets for hydrological and bioclimatic assessments, particularly in Mediterranean climate regions characterized by a complex topography and temporal climatic variability. Full article

Understanding the impact of drought on the water use efficiency (WUE) of grasslands is essential for comprehending the mechanisms of the carbon–water cycle in the context of global warming. Nevertheless, the cumulative and lagged effects of drought on WUE across different grassland types in China remain unclear. This study investigates the cumulative and lagged effects of drought on WUE across different grassland types in China from 1982 to 2018. We employed the Sen-MK trend test and correlation analysis to identify the primary factors influencing the temporal effects of drought on WUE. The results indicated that WUE in Chinese grasslands, across various grassland types, exhibited an upward trend over time, with the most rapid increase observed in meadow. Drought had both cumulative and lagged effects on WUE, with cumulative effects lasting an average of 5.2 months and lagged effects lasting 6.1 months. Specifically, the cumulative effects of drought on WUE lasted for 5.6 months for alpine and subalpine meadow, slope, and desert grassland, whereas the lagged effects lasted 9 months for alpine and subalpine plain grassland. Furthermore, the influence of drought on WUE in grasslands varied across different grassland types and intensified with increasing altitude. The trends observed in the cumulative and lagged impacts of drought on WUE across various aridity index (AI) zones were consistent with those for grasslands as a whole. Our findings underscore that the response of WUE to drought in grasslands and their distinct types is primarily characterized by lagged effects. This research provides an important reference value for enhancing the stability of grassland ecosystems. Full article

Net primary productivity (NPP) is a key indicator for assessing carbon fixation capacity. Understanding the mechanisms of carbon sequestration capacity of forest ecosystems is critical in the context of global climate change. Research on the influencing factors and driving mechanisms of NPP in forest areas of China is still insufficient, especially the lack of systematic analysis on the role of climate and phenology. Forest cover in China has been increasing in recent decades due to natural forest expansion and planted forests. It is significant to clarify the underlying drivers of the forest NPP in China. To address this issue, we collected annual NPP, biomass, phenology, temperature, and precipitation data in China from 2002 to 2021, then applied the general linear mixed effect model (GLMM) and Bayesian structural equation models to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the influencing factors of NPP. The results have shown that influencing factors all exert a significant positive influence on NPP through bivariate relationship analysis. The GLMM revealed that forest NPP was significantly positively affected by biomass, aridity index, temperature, and phenology. Among these, the aridity index (AI) (58.39%) and temperature (27.21%) were identified as having the highest contributions to NPP. The direct and indirect effects on NPP were evaluated using Bayesian structural equation models (SEMs), and the interactions between the factors and their comprehensive regulatory mechanisms on NPP were revealed. This study is crucial for understanding the impact of climate change on regulating forest carbon sequestration and providing strategies for effective forest management. Full article

In Portugal, maize is a major crop, occupying about 40% of the cereals area. The present study aimed to assess future bioclimatic conditions that could affect maize production in Portugal. For this purpose, a set of indicators was selected including dry spells (DSs) and the aridity index (AI). Two additional indicators were included, one related to the soil water reservoir available for maize (RAW) and the other related to the maize thermal unit (MTU), which were designed to assess the suitability of land for growing different varieties of maize. The analysis focused on historical (1971–2000) and future (2011–2070; 2041–2070; 2071–2100) climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) using a four-member ensemble of global climate models. The results for the more distant and severe scenario suggest that there will be an overall increasing tendency in the AI, i.e., higher aridity, namely in the southern part of Portugal compared to the north (0.65 vs. 0.45). The soils in the south are characterized by a lower average RAW (<35 mm) than in the north (>50 mm), which leads to a lower irrigation frequency requirement in the north. As a result of the increased MTU, maize production will shift, allowing for varieties with higher thermal requirements and the conversion of areas traditionally used for silage maize to grain maize production areas. Adaptation measures to improve the climate resilience of maize are discussed. Full article

The spatiotemporal variability of precipitation profoundly influences terrestrial carbon fluxes, driving shifts between carbon source and sink dynamics through gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER). As a result, the sensitivities of GPP and ER to precipitation (S_GPP and S_ER), along with their differential responses, are pivotal for understanding ecosystem reactions to precipitation changes and predicting future ecosystem functions. However, comprehensive evaluations of the spatiotemporal variability and differences in S_GPP and S_ER remain notably scarce. In this study, we utilized eddy covariance flux data to investigate the spatial patterns, temporal dynamics, and differences in S_GPP and S_ER. Spatially, S_GPP and S_ER were generally strongly correlated. Among different ecosystems, the correlation between S_GPP and S_ER was lowest in mixed forest and highest in broadleaf and needleleaf forest. Within the same ecosystem, S_GPP and S_ER exhibited considerable variation but showed no significant differences. In contrast, they differed significantly across ecosystems, with pronounced variability in their magnitudes. For example, shrubland exhibited the highest values for S_GPP, whereas needleleaf forest showed the highest values for S_ER. Temporally, S_ER demonstrated more pronounced changes than S_GPP. Different ecosystems displayed distinct trends: shrubland exhibited an upward trend for both metrics, while grassland showed a downward trend in both S_GPP and S_ER. Forest, on the other hand, maintained stable S_GPP but displayed a downward trend in S_ER. Additionally, S_GPP and S_ER exhibited a notable non-linear response to changes in the aridity index (AI), with both showing a rapid decline followed by stabilization. However, S_ER demonstrated a wider adaptive range to precipitation changes. Generally, this research enhances our understanding of the spatiotemporal variations in ecosystem carbon fluxes under changing precipitation patterns. Full article

Highland ecologies are the most susceptible to climate change, often experiencing intensified impacts. Due to climate change and human activities, there were dramatic changes in the alpine domain of the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which is a vital project of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The CPEC is subjected to rapid infrastructure expansion, which may lead to potential land surface susceptibility. Hence, focusing on sustainable development goals, mainly SDG 9 (industry, innovation, and infrastructure) and SDG 13 (climate action), to evaluate the conservation and management practices for the sustainable and regenerative development of the mountainous region, this study aims to assess change detection and find climatic conditions using multispectral indices along the mountainous area of Gilgit and Hunza-Nagar, Pakistan. It has yielded practical and highly relevant implications. For sustainable and regenerative ecologies, this study utilized 30 × 30 m Landsat 5 (TM), Landsat 7 (ETM+), and Landsat-8/9 (OLI and TIRS), and meteorological data were employed to calculate the aridity index (AI). The results of the AI showed a non-significant decreasing trend (−0.0021/year, p > 0.05) in Gilgit and a significant decreasing trend (−0.0262/year, p < 0.05) in Hunza-Nagar. NDVI distribution shows a decreasing trend (−0.00469/year, p > 0.05), while NDWI has depicted a dynamic trend in water bodies. Similarly, NDBI demonstrated an increasing trend, with rates of 79.89%, 87.69%, and 83.85% from 2008 to 2023. The decreasing values of AI mean a drying trend and increasing drought risk, as the study area already has an arid and semi-arid climate. The combination of multispectral indices and the AI provides a comprehensive insight into how various factors affect the mountainous landscape and climatic conditions in the study area. This study has practical and highly relevant implications for policymakers and researchers interested in research related to land use and land cover change, environmental and infrastructure development in alpine regions. Full article

Nitrogen (N), while the most abundant element in the atmosphere, is an essential soil nutrient that limits plant growth. Leguminous plants naturally possess the ability to fix atmospheric nitrogen through symbiotic relationships with rhizobia in their root nodules. However, the widespread use of synthetic N fertilizers in modern agriculture has led to N enrichment in soils, causing complex and profound effects on legumes. Amid ongoing debates about how leguminous plants respond to N enrichment, the present study compiles 2174 data points from 162 peer-reviewed articles to analyze the impacts and underlying mechanisms of N enrichment on legumes. The findings reveal that N enrichment significantly increases total legume biomass by 30.9% and N content in plant tissues by 13.2% globally. However, N enrichment also leads to notable reductions, including a 5.8% decrease in root-to-shoot ratio, a 21.2% decline in nodule number, a 29.3% reduction in nodule weight, and a 27.1% decrease in the percentage of plant N derived from N₂ fixation (%Ndfa). Legume growth traits and N₂-fixing capability in response to N enrichment are primarily regulated by climatic factors, such as mean annual temperature (MAT) and mean annual precipitation (MAP), as well as the aridity index (AI) and N fertilizer application rates. Correlation analyses show that plant biomass is positively correlated with MAT, and tissue N content also exhibits a positive correlation with MAT. In contrast, nodule numbers and tissue N content are negatively correlated with N fertilizer application rates, whereas %Ndfa shows a positive correlation with AI and MAP. Under low N addition, the increase in total biomass in response to N enrichment is twice as large as that observed under high N addition. Furthermore, regions at lower elevations with abundant hydrothermal resources are especially favorable for total biomass accumulation, indicating that the responses of legumes to N enrichment are habitat-specific. These results provide scientific evidence for the mechanisms underlying legume responses to N enrichment and offer valuable insights and theoretical references for the conservation and management of legumes in the context of global climate change. Full article

The ecosystem’s gross primary productivity (GPP) and greenness, as indicated by the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), are both essential ecological indicators used to evaluate how ecosystems responded to climate variability. However, the relationships between NDVI and GPP under the influence of drying and wetting and its characteristics along aridity (AI) gradients were not yet fully understood. In this study, we investigated the relationships of the NDVI-GPP (i.e., the strength of the coupling and the sensitivity, as quantified by the coefficient of determination (R²) and slope of the linear regression, respectively) along the aridity gradients during the growing season from 1982 to 2018 in China. The results show that the coupling between NDVI and GPP was stronger (i.e., high R²) in semi-arid regions (0.24) compared to humid and hyper-humid regions (R² values were 0.11). For different plant functional types (PFTs), decoupling occurred in ENF with a determination coefficient value (R²) of 0.04, whereas GRA shows a higher coupling with an R² of 0.20. The coupling trend experienced a shift in semi-arid regions, characterized by an aridity index (AI) ranging from 0.20 to 0.50. Additionally, the sensitivity of GPP to NDVI also decreased with increasing aridity. The slope values were 0.19, 0.21, 0.24, 0.20, 0.11, and 0.11 in hyper-arid, arid, semi-arid, dry sub-humid, humid, and hyper-humid, respectively. What is more, asynchronous changes in vegetation productivity and greenness can be detected by capturing the inter-annual variability (IAV) of NDVI and GPP. The IAV of GPP steadily decreased with the aridity gradients, while the IAV of NDVI present fluctuated, suggesting that NDVI was more variable than GPP under the influence of drying and wetting conditions. Our study suggests that there may be a stronger trade-off between ecosystem greenness and photosynthesis in more humid areas. Full article

Climate change is one of the trending terms in the world nowadays due to its profound impact on human health and activity. Extreme drought events and desertification are some of the results of climate change. This study utilized the power of AI tools by using the long short-term memory (LSTM) model to predict the drought index for Anbar Province, Iraq. The data from the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) for 118 years have been used for the current study. The proposed model employed seven different optimizers to enhance the prediction performance. Based on different performance indicators, the results show that the RMSprop and Adamax optimizers achieved the highest accuracy (90.93% and 90.61%, respectively). Additionally, the models forecasted the next 40 years of the SPEI for the study area, where all the models showed an upward trend in the SPEI. In contrast, the best models expected no increase in the severity of drought. This research highlights the vital role of machine learning models and remote sensing in drought forecasting and the significance of these applications by providing accurate climate data for better water resources management, especially in arid regions like that of Anbar province. Full article