Search Results (12)

Traffic-related pollutants remain a challenging global issue, with significant policy implications. Within the European Union, Romania has the highest yearly societal cost per capita due to air pollution, which kills 29,000 Romanians every year, whereas the health and economic costs are also significant. In this context, municipal authorities in the country, particularly in high-density areas, should place a strong focus on mitigating air pollution. In particular, the capital city, Bucharest, ranks among the most congested cities in the world while registering the highest pollution index in Romania, with traffic pollution responsible for two-thirds of its air pollution. Consequently, studies that assess and model pollution trends are paramount to inform local policy-making processes and assist pollution-mitigation efforts. In this paper, a generalized additive modeling (GAM) framework is employed to model hourly concentrations of nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), i.e., a relevant traffic-pollution proxy, at a busy urban traffic location in central Bucharest, Romania. All models are developed on a wide, fine-granularity dataset spanning January 2017–December 2022 and include extensive meteorological covariates. Model robustness is assured by switching between the generalized additive model (GAM) framework and the generalized additive mixed model (GAMM) framework when the residual autoregressive process needs to be specifically acknowledged. Results indicate that trend GAMs explain a large amount of the hourly variation in traffic pollution. Furthermore, meteorological factors contribute to increasing the models’ explanation power, with wind direction, relative humidity, and the interaction between wind speed and the atmospheric pressure emerging as important mitigators for NO₂ concentrations in Bucharest. The results of this study can be valuable in assisting local authorities to take proactive measures for traffic pollution control in the capital city of Romania. Full article

This study examines the intricate relationship between economic growth and European environmental degradation via the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC). Our results contest the traditional inverted U-shape model of the Environmental Kuznets Curve, indicating that the theory may not be consistently applicable across European countries. Utilizing CS-ARDL and MMQR modelling, we reveal substantial regional disparities. Western European nations demonstrate a typical Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) pattern in the short term, characterized by an initial increase in emissions alongside GDP development, followed by a subsequent fall. Conversely, Eastern and Balkan nations exhibit a U-shaped connection, described by an early decline in emissions followed by a subsequent increase as their development levels increase. The influence of renewable energy differs, as it decreases emissions in the short term in Western Europe. However, its long-term impacts are variable, especially when contrasted with its more pronounced effect on emissions in Eastern and Balkan countries. Furthermore, trade openness intensifies environmental degradation in the short-term across all regions, although its long-term impact diminishes, particularly concerning greenhouse gases (GHG). The relationship between renewable energy and trade openness is substantial for the short-term reduction of carbon dioxide emissions, but this effect declines with time. The results indicate that a uniform environmental policy throughout Europe may lack efficacy. Customized strategies to expedite the transition in Western Europe and more specific interventions in Eastern Europe are essential to harmonize economic progress with environmental sustainability. Future research should examine the determinants of the diminishing long-term effects of renewable energy and the interplay between trade and environmental policies. Full article

The paper explores the relationship between education, digitalization, and financial development between 1996 and 2019 with the aim of showcasing the differences between developed and emerging economies in Europe. We use a Bayesian VAR framework that includes variables related to education, digitalization, and financial development, as well as several endogenous variables to control for differences between countries in terms of nominal GDP growth, unemployment rate, and trade openness. Our findings clearly demonstrate the dynamic interdependence between financial development—including its two main components, financial institutions, and financial markets, digitalization, and education. Furthermore, we find that education is a leading variable in the financial development–education–digitalization nexus, whereas financial development and digitalization are laggard variables. These findings open possibilities for influencing joint policies on digitalization, education, and financial development, particularly in emerging European countries. Full article

The latest European Union measures for combating climate adopted in the “Fit for 55 package” envisage the extension of the Emissions Trading System, the first “cap-and-trade” system in the world created for achieving climate targets, which limits the amount of greenhouse gas emissions by imposing a price on carbon. In this context, our study provides an integrated assessment of carbon price risk exposure of all economic sectors in the European Union Member States, thus supporting decision making in determining the energy transition risk. We propose a novel approach in assessing carbon risk exposure using the Value at Risk methodology to compute the carbon price under the EU ETS, based on historical price simulation for January–August 2021 and ARMA-GARCH models for the October 2012–August 2021 period. We further built a value erosion metric, which allowed us to establish each sector’s exposure to risk and to identify differences between Eastern and Western EU countries. We find that the refining sector appears to be highly vulnerable, whereas there is higher potential for large losses in the energy supply and chemical sectors in Eastern EU Member States, given a different pace of industry restructuring. Full article

This paper proposes a new approach toward understanding the financial performance dynamics in the EU retail sector (pre-pandemic); we focus on the connection between indebtedness and solvency risk and other areas of corporate performance (e.g., liquidity, assets efficiency, and profitability). Its contribution resides in identifying the drivers behind solvency risk in a sector that went through significant transformations in recent decades, as well as the links between the various areas of performance of retailers, and their impacts on solvency risk, using the machine-learning random forest methodology. The results indicate a declining trend for solvency risk of EU food retailers after the global financial crisis and up until the beginning of the pandemic, which may reflect their maturity on the market, but also an adjustment to legal changes in the EU, meant to equalize the tax advantages of debt versus equity financing. Solvency risk accompanied by liquidity risk is a mark of the retail sector, and our results indicate that the most critical trade that EU retailers face is between solvency risk and liquidity, but is fading over time. The volatility of liquidity levels is an important predictor of solvency risk; hence, sustaining a stable and good level of liquidity supports lower risks of financial distress, and may mitigate the shock impacts for EU retailers. A higher solvency risk was accompanied by increased efficiency of asset use, but reduced profitability levels, which led to higher returns available to shareholders for high solvency risk retailers. Overall, retailers should focus on operational performance evidenced by financial indicator levels than on the volatility of these indicators as predictors of solvency risk. Full article

Our paper addresses the relevance of a set of continuous and categorical variables that describe industry characteristics to differences in performance between foreign versus locally owned companies in industries with dissimilar levels of technological intensity. Including data on manufacturing sector performance from 20 European Union member countries and covering the 2009–2016 period, we used the random forests methodology to identify the best predictors of EU manufacturing industries’ a priori classification based on two main attributes: ownership (foreign versus local) and technological intensity. We found that EU foreign-owned businesses dominate locally owned ones in terms of size, which gives them an edge in obtaining higher profits, cash flow and investments and coping with higher personnel costs. Furthermore, ownership is a more important differentiator of performance at the industry level than the industry’s technological level. The performance of foreign-owned high-tech manufacturing industry units across the EU is the most heterogeneous compared to the other four categories, indicating particularities linked to technological level, ownership, and even location. Our findings suggest that multinational enterprises in high-tech industries transfer to eastern EU countries’ activities and processes with lower technological intensity and higher labour intensity, but also that locally owned businesses, even within high-tech industries, have lower technological levels. Full article

Given the high resilience of the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) banking sectors during the last financial crisis and their major role in the CEE region in financing the economy and supporting the high growth rates achieved there, our paper investigates the determinants of banking profitability in the CEE banking sectors based on a Generalized Method of Methods (GMM) approach using data between 2009 and 2018. We have selected determinants from the macroeconomic factors and from the financial-banking specific factors using a two-step GMM method. Our findings demonstrate that unemployment rate, inflation, budget balance, non-governmental credit, non-performing loan rates, concentration rate and capitalization rate negatively impact on the banking profitability in the CEE banking sectors. According to these findings, some policy recommendations were elaborated. Full article

The European Union’s environmental goal by 2050 is to become the first climate-neutral continent in the world. This means specific efforts for diversifying the energy mix and investing in low-carbon energy. Our study investigates the nexus among carbon emissions, energy consumption and mix, and economic growth in a modified framework that includes the contribution of inward foreign direct investments and international trade to lowering air pollution. We have used a two-step approach to explore in more detail the links between these variables in 24 EU countries over the period 1995–2018, followed by a panel VECM analysis. Our results indicate that there is a unidirectional link between economic growth and CO₂ emissions, which should imply a decoupling of environmental improvement measures from the pace of economic growth. We also find bidirectional causal relationships between low-carbon energy shares in consumption and CO₂ emissions, as well as between low-carbon energy share in consumption and GDP per capita, which confirms both pollution haven and the halo effect hypotheses for FDI on gas emissions. However, in the long term, FDI, exports, and imports have positively impacted the reduction in CO₂ emissions; therefore, stronger EU investment and trade integration should be promoted to improve the quality of the environment. Full article

Specific and older age-associated comorbidities increase mortality risk in severe forms of coronavirus disease (COVID-19). We matched COVID-19 comorbidities with causes of death in 28 EU countries for the total population and for the population above 65 years and applied a machine-learning-based tree clustering algorithm on shares of death for COVID-19 comorbidities and for influenza and on their growth rates between 2011 and 2016. We distributed EU countries in clusters and drew a map of the EU populations’ vulnerabilities to COVID-19 comorbidities and to influenza. Noncommunicable diseases had impressive shares of death in the EU but with substantial differences between eastern and western countries. The tree clustering algorithm accurately indicated the presence of western and eastern country clusters, with significantly different patterns of disease shares of death and growth rates. Western populations displayed higher vulnerability to malignancy, blood-related diseases, and diabetes mellitus and lower respiratory diseases, while eastern countries’ populations suffered more from ischaemic heart, cerebrovascular, and circulatory diseases. Dissimilarities between EU countries were also present when influenza was considered. The heat maps of EU populations’ vulnerability to diseases based on mortality indicators constitute the basis for more targeted health policy strategies in a collaborative effort at the EU level. Full article

Crude oil is an indispensable resource for the world economy and European Union (EU) countries are strongly dependent on oil imports. In a framework defined by generally positive correlations between oil and stock prices, the paper investigates the relationship between financial companies’ stock prices and crude oil price using a sample of major financial companies headquartered in the EU. The link between stock prices and oil price risk is modelled using a set of macroeconomic variables that includes local stock market indices, the EUR/USD exchange rate, the oil imports dependency, inflation rate, and global volatility indices. We employ panel data as the base econometric model and an ARDL extension that is more appropriated for our research objectives. Our findings show that the EU financial sector is pervasively exposed to oil price changes over the long-run and this exposure is a component of financial companies’ exposure to real economy risk factors, which points towards the key role of the financial sector in the EU economy in transmitting systemic shocks. At the same time, we detect signs of a different behavior of market investors over the short-versus the long-run concerning the valuation of financial companies’ stock prices in relation to oil price and other macroeconomic variables, which raises distressing challenges for financial authorities. Full article

Overcoming symmetry in combinatorial evolutionary algorithms is a challenge for existing niching methods. This research presents a genetic algorithm designed for the shrinkage of the coefficient matrix in vector autoregression (VAR) models, constructed on two pillars: conditional Granger causality and Lasso regression. Departing from a recent information theory proof that Granger causality and transfer entropy are equivalent, we propose a heuristic method for the identification of true structural dependencies in multivariate economic time series. Through rigorous testing, both empirically and through simulations, the present paper proves that genetic algorithms initialized with classical solutions are able to easily break the symmetry of random search and progress towards specific modeling. Full article

Our study addresses the link between ownership concentration and corporate performance in the manufacturing sector in the European Union in an economic environment stressed by the global financial and sovereign debt crises. This is, to our knowledge, the first attempt to tackle differences between companies with different origin-countries in EU from the perspective of ownership concentration and corporate performance in a period marked by the adverse impact of the global financial crisis. Ownership concentration is measured by the number of shareholders and the percentage of their individual and collective holdings, while performance is measured by accounting-based and market-based indicators. Our results, based on a detailed and methodical statistical analysis, show a clear division between Western and Eastern companies in terms of ownership concentration and performance, with an impact on businesses’ recovery patterns. Overall, there is a positive link between ownership concentration and corporate performance in the case of Western companies, but not for Eastern-based companies. Moreover, ownership concentration has supported business recovery in EU, but particularly for Western companies. On the other hand, our results suggest that market investors’ assessment of corporate performance is disconnected from business fundamentals and do not acknowledge the role of ownership concentration (either beneficial of detrimental) for performance assessment. Full article