The Mixture Transition Distribution Model and Other Models for High-Order Dependencies
A special issue of Symmetry (ISSN 2073-8994). This special issue belongs to the section "Mathematics".
Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (31 December 2021) | Viewed by 11346

Special Issue Editor
Special Issue Information
Dear Colleagues,
High-order Markov chains are very useful for the analysis of complex temporal relationships, but they generally reqire a very high number of parameters. A good approach is then to approximate them, and since its introduction in 1985 by Adrian Raftery, the mixture transition distribution (MTD) model attracted much attention, thanks to its parsimony and versatility. The MTD model has been developed and improved in various ways. Now, it can be used to represent and analyze categorical and continuous variables, covariates can be added as additional explanatory terms to the model, and it can also be combined with a hidden or a double-chain Markov model in order to consider the latent phenomena. The MTD model can be estimated through the standard EM algorithm, but ad hoc optimization algorithms were also developed for special situations. Finally, many applied papers have been published in fields as diverse as health, neural networks, finance, marketing, life course, and weather, among others.
Given its base concept, the MTD model introduces a kind of symmetrical relationship between the past and the present—the form of the contribution of each past event to the present is similar, only the respective importance of each contribution is different.
Given the large interest existing around the MTD model principles, the main objectives of this Special Issue are to take stock of 35 years of use of the model, to introduce new directions for future developments, to compare it with alternative specifications of high-order models, and to think about new fields of application. Therefore, this Special Issue welcomes all papers related to the MTD model, demonstrating new theoretical developments, new applications, or both. Papers showing the combined use of the MTD model with other statistical tools are especially welcome, as well as use of the MTD model in mixed-method research.
Prof. Dr. André Berchtold
Guest Editor
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Keywords
- mixture transition distribution (MTD) model
- Markov chain
- high-order model
- hidden model
- optimization
- combination of models
- applications
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