Meteorology

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3 pages, 182 KiB

Open AccessEditorial

Early Career Scientists’ (ECS) Contributions to Meteorology

by Edoardo Bucchignani

Meteorology 2023, 2(1), 146-148; https://doi.org/10.3390/meteorology2010010 - 15 Mar 2023

Viewed by 1578

Abstract

The importance of meteorological events is felt in everyday life and the critical impact of the weather on human activities has led to the development of the science of weather forecasting [...] Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Early Career Scientists' (ECS) Contributions to Meteorology (2022))

Research

Jump to: Editorial, Other

22 pages, 11446 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Evaluating Possible Changes in Air Temperature and Precipitation Patterns in Mozambique by Comparing Present and Future RegCM4 Simulation

by Telmo Cosme A. Sumila, Simone E. T. Ferraz and Angelica Durigon

Meteorology 2023, 2(1), 15-36; https://doi.org/10.3390/meteorology2010002 - 6 Jan 2023

Cited by 2 | Viewed by 2223

Abstract

Unlike global and regional assessments, the spatio-temporal variability of air temperature and precipitation, caused by climate change, must be more useful when the assessment is made at the sub-regional to local scale. Thus, this study aims to assess the possible changes in air [...] Read more.

Unlike global and regional assessments, the spatio-temporal variability of air temperature and precipitation, caused by climate change, must be more useful when the assessment is made at the sub-regional to local scale. Thus, this study aims to assess the possible changes in air temperature and precipitation in patterns for the late 21st century relative to the present climate in Mozambique. The regional model, RegCM4, driven by the global model HadGEM2, was used to perform the downscaling process under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), moderate RCP4.5 and strong RCP8.5. The three experiments were analyzed in the baseline (1971–2000) and future (2070−2099) range at the subregional scale in Mozambique. In this study domain, the highest amounts of precipitation and the highest air temperatures are observed during the extended summer season. However, the central region is rather warmer and rainier than the northern- and southernmost regions. Hence, the regional model RegCM4 demonstrated agreement relative to the observed weather stations and interpolated dataset from the Climate Research Unit. The strong performance of RegCM4 is revealed by its more realistic local spatio-temporal climate features, tied to the topography and geographical location of the study domain. The future increases in mean annual air temperature are well simulated by the model but, the spatial distribution and magnitude differ between the RCPs and over each of the three regions throughout the country. The sharp hottest response at the end of 21st century occurs in the summer and spring seasons under RCP8.5, spatially over the central and northern region of the study domain, with a hot-spot in the southern region. There is a predominantly drier response in the annual mean precipitation but, during the summer season, a meridional dipolarization pattern is observed, with the wettest response being over the southernmost region and a drier response in the northern and central regions of Mozambique. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Early Career Scientists' (ECS) Contributions to Meteorology (2022))

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14 pages, 3738 KiB

Open AccessEditor’s ChoiceArticle

Airplane Emergency Landing Due to Quick Development of Mesoscale Convective Complexes

by Renata Barros Vasconcelos Leirias, Natalia Fedorova and Vladimir Levit

Meteorology 2023, 2(1), 1-14; https://doi.org/10.3390/meteorology2010001 - 3 Jan 2023

Cited by 2 | Viewed by 2370

Abstract

Some meteorological phenomena in South America develop quickly and take on large dimensions. These phenomena cause disasters for aviation, such as incidents and accidents. Mesoscale convective complexes (MCCs) forced a commercial airplane into an emergency landing at Ezeiza International Airport in Buenos Aires [...] Read more.

Some meteorological phenomena in South America develop quickly and take on large dimensions. These phenomena cause disasters for aviation, such as incidents and accidents. Mesoscale convective complexes (MCCs) forced a commercial airplane into an emergency landing at Ezeiza International Airport in Buenos Aires (Argentina) in October 2018. The airplane took off from São Paulo (Brazil) to Santiago (Chile) and had to alternate to Ezeiza after encountering unanticipated agglomerations of MCCs along the flight route; its structure was seriously damaged, which affected the safety of the flight. A synoptic and thermodynamic analysis of the atmosphere, prior to the event, was made based on GOES16 infrared satellite data, radiosonde data, maps of several variables such as stream lines, temperature advection, surface synoptic maps and layer thickness from CPTEC/INPE and NCEP reanalysis data. The main observed processes that influenced the formation and development of conglomerates of MCCs were the following: (1) the cyclogenesis of a baroclinic cyclone on the cold front; (2) the coupling of subtropical and polar jet streams; (3) the advection of warm and humid air along a low-level jet stream. Recommendations for meteorologists in weather forecasting and for aviators in flight safety were prepared. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Early Career Scientists' (ECS) Contributions to Meteorology (2022))

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18 pages, 8777 KiB

Open AccessArticle

An Analysis of the Synoptic Dynamic and Hydrologic Character of the Black Sea Cyclone Falchion

by Moses B. Farr, James V. Gasch, Evan J. Travis, Sarah M. Weaver, Veli Yavuz, Inna G. Semenova, Oleksandr Panasiuk and Anthony R. Lupo

Meteorology 2022, 1(4), 495-512; https://doi.org/10.3390/meteorology1040031 - 2 Dec 2022

Cited by 4 | Viewed by 2893

Abstract

In the Mediterranean and occasionally in the Black Sea, low-pressure systems with the character of both mid-latitude and tropical cyclones can form. These hybrid storms are called subtropical storms, subtropical depressions, medistorms/medicanes, or tropical-like cyclones (TLC). A strong low-pressure system given the name [...] Read more.

In the Mediterranean and occasionally in the Black Sea, low-pressure systems with the character of both mid-latitude and tropical cyclones can form. These hybrid storms are called subtropical storms, subtropical depressions, medistorms/medicanes, or tropical-like cyclones (TLC). A strong low-pressure system given the name Falchion developed in northern part of the Black Sea during 11–20 August 2021. This storm was blamed for damage and more than 30 casualties in the nations bordering the region. At peak intensity, this storm was a as strong as a tropical depression. Falchion developed and moved northeast, reaching peak intensity before becoming nearly stationary. The NCEP reanalyses and satellite data obtained from Eumetsat’s geostationary satellite, Meteosat-8, were used to examine the character of the storm. This study demonstrates that the movement of Falchion was impeded by a blocking event that occurred over central Asia during much of August 2021. The storm did share characteristics with tropical systems, but a comparison of Falchion to tropical depressions and subtropical storms in the North and South Atlantic demonstrated that this storm was more consistent with these types of storms when examining the storm and the proximal environment. This included an examination of integrated water vapor (IVT) plumes, and the plume associated with Falchion did rise to the character of an atmospheric river in spite of the smaller scale. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Early Career Scientists' (ECS) Contributions to Meteorology (2022))

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18 pages, 5807 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Evaluation of Future Simulations of the CMIP5 GCMs Concerning Boreal Wintertime Atmospheric Teleconnection Patterns

by Erzsébet Kristóf

Meteorology 2022, 1(4), 450-467; https://doi.org/10.3390/meteorology1040028 - 7 Nov 2022

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1727

Abstract

In this study, a pattern detection method is applied on the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 simulation outputs of seven GCMs—disseminated by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5)—to determine whether atmospheric teleconnection patterns detected in the ERA-20C reanalysis from the European Centre for [...] Read more.

In this study, a pattern detection method is applied on the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 simulation outputs of seven GCMs—disseminated by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5)—to determine whether atmospheric teleconnection patterns detected in the ERA-20C reanalysis from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) will be observable in the future projections of the CMIP5 GCMs. The pattern detection technique—which combines the negative extrema method and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis—is used on the geopotential height field at the 500 hPa pressure level in wintertime, in the Northern Hemisphere. It was found that teleconnections obtained from the ERA-20C reanalysis dataset for the period of 1976–2005 remain observable in the majority of the GCM outputs under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios for the periods of 2006–2035, 2021–2050, and 2071–2100. The results imply that atmospheric internal variability is the major factor that controls the teleconnections rather than the impact of radiative forcing. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Early Career Scientists' (ECS) Contributions to Meteorology (2022))

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14 pages, 69809 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Validation of Precipitation Type Forecasts Based on ECMWF’s Ensemble Model for Hungary

by Dóra Cséke and István Ihász

Meteorology 2022, 1(3), 274-287; https://doi.org/10.3390/meteorology1030018 - 9 Aug 2022

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 2729

Abstract

Forecasts of precipitation type are of high priority, as they have a large influence on human safety, the economy and the environment. In recent decades, methods of statistical post-processing of numerical weather prediction (NWP) outputs were only applied beside the experience of the [...] Read more.

Forecasts of precipitation type are of high priority, as they have a large influence on human safety, the economy and the environment. In recent decades, methods of statistical post-processing of numerical weather prediction (NWP) outputs were only applied beside the experience of the operational forecasters. In the last few years, numerical models developed significantly; thus, precipitation type has become a variable directly calculated in some models. In the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) integrated forecast system (IFS) model, a new method has been used since 2015 to predict the type of precipitation. In this study, we examine the forecast of the ECMWF IFS ensemble model concerning precipitation type through ensemble verification and a case study on a freezing-rain situation for the territory of Hungary. We put emphasis on the investigation of the usability of ensemble forecasts. We introduce the developed forms of visualization supporting the interpretation of ensemble precipitation-type forecasts. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Early Career Scientists' (ECS) Contributions to Meteorology (2022))

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20 pages, 24607 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Process Studies of the Impact of Land-Surface Resolution on Convective Precipitation Based on High-Resolution ICON Simulations

by Shweta Singh and Norbert Kalthoff

Meteorology 2022, 1(3), 254-273; https://doi.org/10.3390/meteorology1030017 - 31 Jul 2022

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1971

Abstract

This study investigated the relevant processes responsible for differences of convective precipitation caused by land-surface resolution. The simulations were performed with the ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic model (ICON) with grid spacing of 156 m and Large Eddy Simulation physics. Regions of different orographic complexity, days [...] Read more.

This study investigated the relevant processes responsible for differences of convective precipitation caused by land-surface resolution. The simulations were performed with the ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic model (ICON) with grid spacing of 156 m and Large Eddy Simulation physics. Regions of different orographic complexity, days with weak synoptic forcing and favourable convective conditions were selected. The resolution of land-surface properties (soil type, vegetation) and/or the orography was reduced from 156 to 5000 m. Analyses are based on backward trajectories (Lagrangian Analysis Tool (LAGRANTO)), heat budget and convective organisation potential (COP) calculations. On average, the relative difference of areal mean daily precipitation at 1250 and 5000 m land-surface resolutions compared to 156 m were 6% and 15%, respectively. No consistent dependency of precipitation on orography or land-surface properties was found. Both factors impact convective initiation over areas with embedded mesoscale-sized land-surface heterogeneities. The position of convective precipitation was often influenced by the resolution of orography. Coarsening from 156 to 5000 m considerably changed the location of wind convergence and associated convection initiation. It also affects the onset times of clouds (<20 min) and precipitation (≈1 h). Cloud aggregation and microphysical processes proved to be important for further development towards convective precipitation. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Early Career Scientists' (ECS) Contributions to Meteorology (2022))

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23 pages, 5561 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Probabilistic Evaluation of the Multicategory Seasonal Precipitation Re-Forecast

by Yiwen Xu

Meteorology 2022, 1(3), 231-253; https://doi.org/10.3390/meteorology1030016 - 13 Jul 2022

Cited by 2 | Viewed by 2349

Abstract

The Meteo-France seasonal forecasting system 7 provides a 7-month forecast range with 25 ensembles. The seasonal precipitation re-forecast (from May to November 1993–2015) was evaluated by the Brier score in terms of accuracy and reliability based on tercile probabilities. Multiple analyses were performed [...] Read more.

The Meteo-France seasonal forecasting system 7 provides a 7-month forecast range with 25 ensembles. The seasonal precipitation re-forecast (from May to November 1993–2015) was evaluated by the Brier score in terms of accuracy and reliability based on tercile probabilities. Multiple analyses were performed to assess the robustness of the score. These results show that the spatial distribution of the Brier score depends significantly on tercile thresholds, reference data, sampling methods, and ensemble types. Large probabilistic errors over the dry regions on land and the Nino regions in the Pacific can be reduced by adjusting the tercile thresholds. The forecast errors were identified when they were insensitive to different analysis methods. All the analyses detected that the errors increase/decrease with the lead time over the tropical Indian/Pacific Ocean. The intra-seasonal analysis reveals that some of these errors are inherited from monthly forecasts, which may be related to large-scale, short-term variability modes. A new confidence interval calculation was formulated for the “uncertain” case in the reference data. The confidence interval at a 95% level for the mean Brier score over the entire tropical region was quantified. The best estimations are ~6% the mean Brier score for both the above and below-normal terciles. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Early Career Scientists' (ECS) Contributions to Meteorology (2022))

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9 pages, 1439 KiB

Open AccessCommunication

Observations on the Frequency, Duration, and Geographical Extent of Summertime Cold-Front Activity in the Southeastern USA: 1973–2020

by Tyler J. Mitchell, Paul A. Knapp and Jason T. Ortegren

Meteorology 2022, 1(2), 211-219; https://doi.org/10.3390/meteorology1020014 - 2 Jun 2022

Cited by 2 | Viewed by 2779

Abstract

We analyzed summertime (June–August) cold-front activity via frequency and duration in the southeastern USA during 1973–2020 to summarize and identify the temporal trends of the annual and total number of hours associated with cold fronts, cold-front days, and multi-day cold-front events. Using data [...] Read more.

We analyzed summertime (June–August) cold-front activity via frequency and duration in the southeastern USA during 1973–2020 to summarize and identify the temporal trends of the annual and total number of hours associated with cold fronts, cold-front days, and multi-day cold-front events. Using data from 34 ASOS Network stations, we defined summertime cold fronts as events that lowered the dew point temperature below 15.56 °C (< 60 °F). Additionally, we examined 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies associated with years with cold front frequency/duration deviations of +/− 1.0 SD. The extent of the cold-front activity exhibited a north–south latitudinal gradient with a more southerly latitudinal expression on the east side of the Appalachian Mountains and was negligible south of the 30°N latitude. The cold-front activity was most prominent during the first half of June. Our results suggest that all three metrics of summertime cold-front activity were stable at a regional scale during the 48-year study period with a few (three–five) stations experiencing significant decreases. A regional-scale stability was coincident with significant increases in minimum, maximum, and average summertime temperatures in the southeastern USA. Years with either above-average or below-average cold-front activity were concurrent with synoptic conditions that supported either troughing or ridging in the southeastern USA. We conclude that the observed weakening in the southeastern USA warming hole is the result of external and/or internal forcings unrelated to reductions in anomalously cool summer weather. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Early Career Scientists' (ECS) Contributions to Meteorology (2022))

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28 pages, 68327 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Evaluation of Satellite-Derived Signatures for Three Verified Hailstorms in Central Argentina

by Anthony C. Bernal Ayala, Angela K. Rowe, Lucia E. Arena and Ankur R. Desai

Meteorology 2022, 1(2), 183-210; https://doi.org/10.3390/meteorology1020013 - 13 May 2022

Cited by 2 | Viewed by 3562

Abstract

Córdoba Province in Argentina is a global hotspot for deep hail-producing storms. Previous studies of hail formation and detection largely relied on satellite snapshots or modeling studies, but lacked hail validation, relying instead on proxy metrics. To address this limitation, this study used [...] Read more.

Córdoba Province in Argentina is a global hotspot for deep hail-producing storms. Previous studies of hail formation and detection largely relied on satellite snapshots or modeling studies, but lacked hail validation, relying instead on proxy metrics. To address this limitation, this study used hail collected in the mountainous Córdoba region in collaboration with the citizen science program “Cosecheros de Granizo 2018–2020” including from a record-breaking hail event and from the 2018–2019 RELAMPAGO field campaign. Three cases including a MCS and two supercells, which have verified hail in different environment locations relative to the Sierras de Córdoba, were analyzed for multi-spectral signatures in GOES-16 satellite data. Brightness temperatures decreased over time after convective initiation, reaching values cooler than the tropopause with variations around those values of different magnitudes. Overall, all cases exhibited a slight weakening of the updraft and strong presence of smaller ice crystal sizes just prior to the hail report, especially for the larger hailstones. The results demonstrate promise in using satellite proxies for hail detection in multiple environments for different storm modes. The long-term goal is to better understand hail-producing storms and unique challenges of forecasting hail in this region. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Early Career Scientists' (ECS) Contributions to Meteorology (2022))

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8 pages, 1693 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The First Five Years of the Operational Runs of the Numerical Tools for Hurricane Forecast (NTHF) during the North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Season

by Albenis Pérez-Alarcón and José C. Fernández-Alvarez

Meteorology 2022, 1(2), 154-161; https://doi.org/10.3390/meteorology1020010 - 13 Apr 2022

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 2060

Abstract

In this study, we evaluated the ability of the Numerical Tools for Hurricane Forecast (NTHF) system, operational at the Department of Meteorology of the Higher Institute of Technologies and Applied Sciences, University of Havana, Cuba, for forecasting the intensity and trajectory of the [...] Read more.

In this study, we evaluated the ability of the Numerical Tools for Hurricane Forecast (NTHF) system, operational at the Department of Meteorology of the Higher Institute of Technologies and Applied Sciences, University of Havana, Cuba, for forecasting the intensity and trajectory of the North Atlantic (NATL) tropical cyclones (TCs). To assess the ability of the NTHF system in the first five years (2016–2020) of operational runs, we used the best tracks from the National Hurricane Center HURDAT2 database. The errors in the track forecast increased linearly from 41 km at 6 h to 356 km at 120 h. In addition, NTHF underestimates the intensity of TCs, especially those that reach Category 3+ hurricanes on the Saffir–Simpson wind scale. Overall, the mean absolute error in forecasting the maximum wind speed (minimum pressure) ranged from 26.5 km/h (7 hPa) to 33.7 km/h (11.7 hPa). Moreover, the highest BIAS in the intensity forecast was found in the first 48 h, suggesting that model initialization is the main driver of NTHF errors in the forecast maximum wind speed and the minimum central pressure of TCs in the North Atlantic Basin. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Early Career Scientists' (ECS) Contributions to Meteorology (2022))

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12 pages, 1639 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Trends in the Frequency of Water and Heat Stress in Mid-Latitude North America since 1980

by Arik Tashie

Meteorology 2022, 1(2), 142-153; https://doi.org/10.3390/meteorology1020009 - 8 Apr 2022

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 2047

Abstract

The water-energy balance of many mid-latitude watersheds has been changing in recent decades due to global warming. These changes manifest themselves over both long timescales (e.g., hydrologic drought) and short timescales (e.g., agricultural drought) and may be ameliorated or exacerbated by vegetative response. [...] Read more.

The water-energy balance of many mid-latitude watersheds has been changing in recent decades due to global warming. These changes manifest themselves over both long timescales (e.g., hydrologic drought) and short timescales (e.g., agricultural drought) and may be ameliorated or exacerbated by vegetative response. We apply a Budyko framework to assess short-term response to long-term trends in water and heat stress (HS) across mid-latitude North America. Using high-resolution meteorological data and streamflow records, we calculate the frequency of HS every year since 1980 for every gaged watershed with adequate data (n = 1528). We find that HS has become more frequent in most watersheds in the western US, New England, and southeastern Canada. However, we find that HS has become less frequent in the Midwest and the relatively humid eastern US. By assessing the relationship between trends in HS frequency and proximate forcing variables (annual PPT, annual streamflow, minimum and maximum daily temperatures, actual evapotranspiration, and potential evapotranspiration), we find that these trends in HS frequency are primarily driven by meteorological forcings rather than vegetative response. Finally, we contextualize our findings within the Budyko framework, which assumes a landscape in equilibrium with its climate, with the implication that these trends in HS are only likely to be realized after local vegetation has adapted to new meteorological norms. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Early Career Scientists' (ECS) Contributions to Meteorology (2022))

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19 pages, 4988 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Northern Hemisphere Flow Regime Transitions, Blocking, and the Onset of Spring in the Central USA during Late Winter 2019 and 2021

by Madeline A. Est, Samuel Mount, Christopher A. Steward and Anthony R. Lupo

Meteorology 2022, 1(1), 45-63; https://doi.org/10.3390/meteorology1010005 - 24 Feb 2022

Cited by 2 | Viewed by 2824

Abstract

Studies have shown that maxima in the time series of Northern Hemisphere (NH) integrated enstrophy (IE) can be associated with large-scale flow regime transitions and, often, the onset and decay of blocking events. During February and March 2019, and then February 2021, strong [...] Read more.

Studies have shown that maxima in the time series of Northern Hemisphere (NH) integrated enstrophy (IE) can be associated with large-scale flow regime transitions and, often, the onset and decay of blocking events. During February and March 2019, and then February 2021, strong IE maxima were associated with changes in the NH flow regimes that brought very cold conditions to the central United States. The colder conditions in the central USA during late winter 2019 and 2021 were also associated with very strong Pacific or Atlantic Region blocking events. Using the NCEP re-analyses, three different teleconnection indexes, and surface weather data from nine different cities in the central USA, IE maxima, flow regime transitions, and surface weather regimes are identified. The mean temperature and precipitation characteristics for the cities named here during the different large-scale flow regime characteristics are compared. The results have demonstrated that relatively warm conditions occurred through the first part of February 2019 before a period of anomalously colder (as much as 12 °C below normal) and drier weather, with more snow, persisted into early March. This period was bookended by maxima in the NH IE time series, changes in the character of the main NH teleconnection indexes, and a strong simultaneous NH blocking episode. Following the cold period, the temperature regime returned to values that were closer to seasonal normal values, which were then discussed as a possible indicator of a transition from a winter to a spring regime. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Early Career Scientists' (ECS) Contributions to Meteorology (2022))

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9 pages, 368 KiB

Open AccessPerspective

Integrating a Disaster Displacement Dimension in Climate Change Attribution

by Lisa Thalheimer, Dorothy Heinrich, Karsten Haustein and Roop Singh

Meteorology 2022, 1(4), 468-476; https://doi.org/10.3390/meteorology1040029 - 30 Nov 2022

Cited by 2 | Viewed by 2896

Abstract

Populations around the world have already experienced the increasing severity of extreme weather causing disaster displacement. Anthropogenic climate change can intensify these impacts. Extreme event attribution studies center around the question of whether impactful extreme events could have occurred in a pre-industrial climate. [...] Read more.

Populations around the world have already experienced the increasing severity of extreme weather causing disaster displacement. Anthropogenic climate change can intensify these impacts. Extreme event attribution studies center around the question of whether impactful extreme events could have occurred in a pre-industrial climate. Here, we argue that the next step for attribution science is to focus on those most vulnerable populations to future extremes and impacts from climate change. Up until now, the vulnerability dimension has not been systematically addressed in attribution studies, yet it would add urgently needed context, given the vast differences in adaptive capacity. We propose three integrative points to cascade disaster displacement linked to anthropogenic climate change. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Early Career Scientists' (ECS) Contributions to Meteorology (2022))

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8 pages, 226 KiB

Open AccessOpinion

Weather Prediction for Singapore—Progress, Challenges, and Opportunities

by Joshua Chun Kwang Lee, Huqiang Zhang, Dale Melvyn Barker, Song Chen, Rajesh Kumar, Byoung Woong An, Kuldeep Sharma and Krishnamoorthy Chandramouli

Meteorology 2022, 1(4), 394-401; https://doi.org/10.3390/meteorology1040025 - 9 Oct 2022

Cited by 2 | Viewed by 3188

Abstract

Singapore is a tiny city-state located in maritime Southeast Asia. Weather systems such as localized thunderstorms, squalls, and monsoon surges bring extreme rainfall to Singapore, influencing the day-to-day conduct of stakeholders in many sectors. Numerical weather prediction models can provide forecast guidance, but [...] Read more.

Singapore is a tiny city-state located in maritime Southeast Asia. Weather systems such as localized thunderstorms, squalls, and monsoon surges bring extreme rainfall to Singapore, influencing the day-to-day conduct of stakeholders in many sectors. Numerical weather prediction models can provide forecast guidance, but existing global models struggle to capture the development and evolution of the small-scale and transient weather systems impacting the region. To address this, Singapore has collaborated with international partners and developed regional numerical weather prediction systems. Steady progress has been made, bringing added value to stakeholders. In recent years, complex earth system and ultra high-resolution urban models have also been developed to meet increasingly diverse stakeholder needs. However, further advancement of weather prediction for Singapore is often hindered by existing challenges, such as the lack of data, limited understanding of underlying processes, and geographical complexities. These may be viewed as opportunities, but are not trivial to address. There are also other opportunities that have remained relatively unexplored over Singapore and the region, such as the integration of earth system models, uncertainty estimation and machine learning methods. These are perhaps key research directions that Singapore should embark on to continue ensuring value for stakeholders. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Early Career Scientists' (ECS) Contributions to Meteorology (2022))

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