Special Issue "Evaluation and Optimization of Atmospheric Numerical Models"

A special issue of Atmosphere (ISSN 2073-4433). This special issue belongs to the section "Atmospheric Techniques, Instruments, and Modeling".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: 31 March 2020.

Special Issue Editors

Assoc. Prof. Ioannis Pytharoulis
E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Department of Meteorology and Climatology, School of Geology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54124 Thessaloniki, Greece
Interests: synoptic and dynamic meteorology; numerical weather prediction; atmospheric model evaluation; operational weather forecasting; land/sea–air interaction; extreme weather events; African Easterly Waves; Mediterranean tropical-like cyclones
Special Issues and Collections in MDPI journals
Prof. Petros Katsafados
E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Harokopio University of Athens, Dpt of Geography, 16122, Athens, Greece
Interests: atmospheric dynamics; air-sea interaction; data assimilation; nowcasting
Special Issues and Collections in MDPI journals

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

The progress in atmospheric numerical models and the increase of computer power have led to a blooming of numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate research, allowing for more effective protection from adverse meteorological and air-quality conditions, exploitation of renewable energy sources, planning of recreation/business activities and understanding of climate change effects. Despite these advances, the numerical models still present various errors associated to the numerical methods, the resolution, the physical parameterizations and the input data. There is room for further increase of the predictability by improving the modelling and data assimilation techniques and the various input data, as well as by employing higher resolution. The two-way coupling of atmospheric with hydrological, ocean, wave, dust and fire models has also exhibited a significant potential towards this goal.

The thorough understanding of the model errors can be achieved via the suitable evaluation of the different types of forecasts/simulations, exploiting the available observations and scientific knowledge. Τhe evaluation criteria may include the comparison against analytic theory, other independent numerical models or observations, the calculation of budgets and the performance of sensitivity experiments. Nowadays, the models are commonly evaluated against observations, through point-to-point, neighbourhood-based and object oriented methodologies.

The aim of this Special Issue is to comprise review and original theoretical and modelling studies on the evaluation and optimization of atmospheric numerical models.

Topics of interest include, but are not limited to, the following:

  • Development and evaluation of numerical techniques, diagnosis of data assimilation methods and physical parameterizations
  • Sensitivity experiments
  • Two-way coupling of atmospheric numerical models with hydrological, ocean, wave, dust and fire ones, aiming to improve the representation of the atmospheric processes
  • Atmospheric model evaluation - verification of model components and operational NWP products against in-situ measurements, remote sensing estimations, regional and global re-analysis of past observations

Prof. Ioannis Pytharoulis
Prof. Petros Katsafados
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All papers will be peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the special issue website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 100 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for announcement on this website.

Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Atmosphere is an international peer-reviewed open access monthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 1500 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • Atmospheric Numerical Models
  • Model evaluation
  • Point-to-point, neighborhood-based, object oriented evaluation
  • Sensitivity experiments
  • Data assimilation
  • Physical parameterizations

Published Papers (1 paper)

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Research

Open AccessArticle
Improving WRF Typhoon Precipitation and Intensity Simulation Using a Surrogate-Based Automatic Parameter Optimization Method
Atmosphere 2020, 11(1), 89; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11010089 - 10 Jan 2020
Abstract
Typhoon precipitation and intensity forecasting plays an important role in disaster prevention and mitigation in the typhoon landfall area. However, the issue of improving forecast accuracy is very challenging. In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model typhoon simulations on precipitation [...] Read more.
Typhoon precipitation and intensity forecasting plays an important role in disaster prevention and mitigation in the typhoon landfall area. However, the issue of improving forecast accuracy is very challenging. In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model typhoon simulations on precipitation and central 10-m maximum wind speed (10-m wind) were improved using a systematic parameter optimization framework consisting of parameter screening and adaptive surrogate modeling-based optimization (ASMO) for screening sensitive parameters. Six of the 25 adjustable parameters from seven physics components of the WRF model were screened by the Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline (MARS) parameter sensitivity analysis tool. Then the six parameters were optimized using the ASMO method, and after 178 runs, the 6-hourly precipitation, and 10-m wind simulations were finally improved by 6.83% and 13.64% respectively. The most significant improvements usually occurred with the maximum precipitation or the highest wind speed. Additional typhoon events from other years were simulated to validate that the WRF optimal parameters were reasonable. The results demonstrated that the improvements in 6-hourly precipitation and 10-m wind were 4.78% and 8.54% respectively. Overall, the ASMO optimization method is an effective and highly efficient way to improve typhoon precipitation and intensity simulation using a numerical weather prediction model. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Evaluation and Optimization of Atmospheric Numerical Models)
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