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Machine Learning Analysis of Hydrological and Hydrochemical Data from the Abelar Pilot Basin in Abegondo (Coruña, Spain)

Journal Description

Hydrology

Hydrology is an international, peer-reviewed, open access journal on hydrology published monthly online by MDPI. The American Institute of Hydrology (AIH) and Japanese Society of Physical Hydrology (JSPH) are affiliated with Hydrology and their members receive discounts on the article processing charges.

Open Access— free for readers, with article processing charges (APC) paid by authors or their institutions.
High Visibility: indexed within Scopus, ESCI (Web of Science), PubAg, GeoRef, and other databases.
Journal Rank: JCR - Q2 (Water Resources) / CiteScore - Q1 (Oceanography)
Rapid Publication: manuscripts are peer-reviewed and a first decision is provided to authors approximately 15.7 days after submission; acceptance to publication is undertaken in 2.8 days (median values for papers published in this journal in the first half of 2025).
Recognition of Reviewers: reviewers who provide timely, thorough peer-review reports receive vouchers entitling them to a discount on the APC of their next publication in any MDPI journal, in appreciation of the work done.
Journal Clusters of Water Resources: Water, Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, Hydrology, Resources, Oceans, Limnological Review, Coasts.

Impact Factor: 3.2 (2024); 5-Year Impact Factor: 3.0 (2024)

Imprint Information Journal Flyer Open Access ISSN: 2306-5338

Latest Articles

19 pages, 5038 KB

Open AccessArticle

Mechanisms of Soil Aggregate Stability Influencing Slope Erosion in North China

by Ying Yang, Shuai Zhang, Weijie Yuan, Zedong Li, Xiuxiu Deng and Lina Wang

Hydrology 2025, 12(10), 267; https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology12100267 - 10 Oct 2025

Soil aggregate stability plays a central role in mediating slope erosion, a key ecological process in North China. This study aimed to investigate how aggregate structures (reflected by rainfall intensity and vegetation-type differences) influence the erosion process. Using wasteland as the control, we [...] Read more.

Soil aggregate stability plays a central role in mediating slope erosion, a key ecological process in North China. This study aimed to investigate how aggregate structures (reflected by rainfall intensity and vegetation-type differences) influence the erosion process. Using wasteland as the control, we conducted artificial simulated rainfall experiments on soils covered by Quercus variabilis, Platycladus orientalis, and shrubs, with three rainfall intensity gradients. Key findings showed that Platycladus orientalis exhibited the strongest infiltration capacity and longest runoff initiation delay due to its high proportion of stable macroaggregates (>0.25 mm), while barren land readily formed surface crusts, leading to the fastest runoff. Increased rainfall intensity significantly exacerbated runoff and erosion. When the macroaggregate content exceeded 60%, sediment yield rates dropped sharply, with a significant negative exponential relationship between the mean weight diameter (MWD) and sediment yield; barren land (dominated by microaggregates) faced the highest erosion risk and fell into an erosion–fragmentation vicious cycle. Redundancy analysis revealed that microbial communities (e.g., Ascomycota) and fine roots were dominant erosion-controlling factors under heavy rainfall. Ultimately, the synergistic system of the macroaggregate architecture and root-microbial cementation enabled Platycladus orientalis and other tree stands to reduce soil erodibility via maintaining aggregate stability, whereas shrubs and barren land amplified rainfall intensity effects. barren landbarren landmm·h⁻¹ mm·h⁻¹ mm·h⁻¹ barren land. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Soil and Hydrology)

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39 pages, 12084 KB

Open AccessArticle

Runoff Prediction in the Songhua River Basin Based on WEP Model

by Xinyu Wang, Changlei Dai, Gengwei Liu, Xiao Yang, Jianyu Jing and Qing Ru

Hydrology 2025, 12(10), 266; https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology12100266 - 9 Oct 2025

Songhua River Basin, northeast China, has seen significant changes due to climate change and human activities from 1990 to 2000, when forests were largely reclaimed and agricultural land was taken up to change the terrestrial water cycle drastically. This paper investigates hydrological changes [...] Read more.

Songhua River Basin, northeast China, has seen significant changes due to climate change and human activities from 1990 to 2000, when forests were largely reclaimed and agricultural land was taken up to change the terrestrial water cycle drastically. This paper investigates hydrological changes in three basins: the main stream basin of the Songhua River, the Second Songhua River Basin, and the Nenjiang River Basin. Machine learning and signal processing techniques have been applied to reconstruct historical river records with high accuracy, achieving determination coefficients exceeding 0.97. The physically based WEP model effectively simulates both natural hydrological patterns and human-induced hydrological processes in the northern Nenjiang region. Climate projections indicate clear temperature increases across all scenarios. The most significant warming is observed under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, where runoff increases by 8.52% to 12.02%t, with precipitation driving 62% to 78% of the changes. Summer runoff shows the most significant increase, while autumn runoff decreases, particularly in the Nenjiang Basin, where permafrost loss alters spring melt patterns. This change elevates flood risk in summer, with the rate of increase strongly dependent on the scenario. Water resources show strong scenario dependence, with the average growth rate of SSP5-8.5 being 4 times that of SSP1-2.6. A critical threshold is reached at a 2.5 °C increase in temperature, triggering system instability. These results emphasize the need for adaptation to spatial differences to address emerging water security challenges in rapidly changing northern regions, including nonlinear hydroclimatic responses, infrastructure resilience to flow changes, and cross-basin coordination. Full article

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46 pages, 2458 KB

Open AccessReview

Global Insights into Micro- and Nanoplastic Pollution in Surface Water: A Review

by Aujeeta Shehrin Razzaque and Assefa M. Melesse

Hydrology 2025, 12(10), 265; https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology12100265 - 9 Oct 2025

Microplastics (<5 mm) and nanoplastics (~100 nm), which are invisible to the naked eye, originate primarily from fragmentation and breakdown larger plastic debris are increasingly pervasive in the environment. Once released, they can disperse widely in the environment, pollute them adversely and ultimately [...] Read more.

Microplastics (<5 mm) and nanoplastics (~100 nm), which are invisible to the naked eye, originate primarily from fragmentation and breakdown larger plastic debris are increasingly pervasive in the environment. Once released, they can disperse widely in the environment, pollute them adversely and ultimately be taken up by living organisms, including humans, through multiple exposure pathways. Their distribution in aquatic systems is influenced by their physiochemical properties including density, hydrophobicity, and chemical stability, along with environmental conditions and biological activities. To better understand the dynamics of micro- and nanoplastics in surface water, this study conducted a comprehensive review of 194 published articles and scientific reports covering marine, freshwater, and wastewater systems. We assessed the abundance, spatial distribution and the factors that govern their behavior in aquatic systems and analyzed the sampling techniques, pretreatment process, and detection and removal techniques to understand the ongoing scenario of these pollutants in surface water and to identify the ecological risks and potential toxicological effects on living biota via direct and indirect exposure pathways. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Water-Soil Pollution Control and Environmental Management)

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24 pages, 7261 KB

Open AccessArticle

Coupling Rainfall Intensity and Satellite-Derived Soil Moisture for Time of Concentration Prediction: A Data-Driven Hydrological Approach to Enhance Climate Responsiveness

by Kasun Bandara, Kavini Pabasara, Luminda Gunawardhana, Janaka Bamunawala, Jeewanthi Sirisena and Lalith Rajapakse

Hydrology 2025, 12(10), 264; https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology12100264 - 6 Oct 2025

Accurately estimating the time of concentration (Tc) is critical for hydrological modelling, flood forecasting, and hydraulic infrastructure design. However, conventional methods often overlook the combined effects of rainfall intensity and antecedent soil moisture, thereby limiting their applicability under changing climates. This [...] Read more.

Accurately estimating the time of concentration (Tc) is critical for hydrological modelling, flood forecasting, and hydraulic infrastructure design. However, conventional methods often overlook the combined effects of rainfall intensity and antecedent soil moisture, thereby limiting their applicability under changing climates. This study presents a novel approach that integrates data-driven techniques with remote sensing data to improve Tc estimation. This method was successfully applied in the Kalu River Basin, Sri Lanka, demonstrating its performance in a tropical catchment. While an overall inverse relationship between rainfall intensity and Tc was observed, deviations in several events underscored the influence of initial soil moisture conditions on catchment response times. To address this, a modified kinematic wave-based equation incorporating both rainfall intensity and soil moisture was developed and calibrated, achieving high predictive accuracy (calibration: R² = 0.97, RMSE = 1.1 h; validation: R² = 0.96, RMSE = 0.01 h). A hydrological model was developed to assess the impacts of Tc uncertainties on design hydrographs. Results revealed that underestimating Tc led to substantially shorter lag times and significantly increased peak flows, highlighting the sensitivity of flood simulations to Tc variability. This study highlights the need for improved

T_{C}

estimation and presents a robust, transferable methodology for enhancing hydrological predictions and climate-resilient infrastructure planning. Full article

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17 pages, 7625 KB

Open AccessArticle

Outdoor Ice Rinks in Ontario, Canada—An Oversimplified Model for Ice Water Equivalent and Operational Duration to Evaluate Changing Climate

by Huaxia Yao and Steven R. Fassnacht

Hydrology 2025, 12(10), 263; https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology12100263 - 5 Oct 2025

Outdoor ice rinks have long been a staple for inexpensive exercise and entertainment in cold environments. However, the possible deterioration of or impact on outdoor ice rinks from a changing climate is poorly understood due to no or little monitoring of data of [...] Read more.

Outdoor ice rinks have long been a staple for inexpensive exercise and entertainment in cold environments. However, the possible deterioration of or impact on outdoor ice rinks from a changing climate is poorly understood due to no or little monitoring of data of such facilities. To investigate long-term changes in ice rinks over recent decades, an energy-balance-based ice rink model (with three versions considering precipitation and melt) was applied to a simulated ice rink for two representative area—Dorset of south-central Ontario and the Experimental Lakes Area (ELA) of northwestern Ontario, Canada. The model was calibrated and tested using four-year ice rink data (since limited data are available) and applied to a 40-year period starting in 1978 to reproduce the dates of rink-on and rink-off, rink duration in a season, and ice water equivalent under daily climate inputs, and to illustrate any changing trend in these variables, i.e., the ice rink responses to changed climate. Results showed no clear trend in any ice rink features over four decades, attributed to winter temperature that did not increase substantially (a weak driver), no change in events of rain-on-ice and snowfall-on-rink, and reduced wind speed (possibly slowing ice melting). This is the first trial of a physically based rink model to evaluate outdoor ice rinks. More in situ monitoring and in-depth modelling are necessary, and this model can help guide the monitoring. Full article

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23 pages, 8881 KB

Open AccessArticle

Stable Water Isotopes and Machine Learning Approaches to Investigate Seawater Intrusion in the Magra River Estuary (Italy)

by Marco Sabattini, Francesco Ronchetti, Gianpiero Brozzo and Diego Arosio

Hydrology 2025, 12(10), 262; https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology12100262 - 3 Oct 2025

Seawater intrusion into coastal river systems poses increasing challenges for freshwater availability and estuarine ecosystem integrity, especially under evolving climatic and anthropogenic pressures. This study presents a multidisciplinary investigation of marine intrusion dynamics within the Magra River estuary (Northwest Italy), integrating field monitoring, [...] Read more.

Seawater intrusion into coastal river systems poses increasing challenges for freshwater availability and estuarine ecosystem integrity, especially under evolving climatic and anthropogenic pressures. This study presents a multidisciplinary investigation of marine intrusion dynamics within the Magra River estuary (Northwest Italy), integrating field monitoring, isotopic tracing (δ¹⁸O; δD), and multivariate statistical modeling. Over an 18-month period, 11 fixed stations were monitored across six seasonal campaigns, yielding a comprehensive dataset of water electrical conductivity (EC) and stable isotope measurements from fresh water to salty water. EC and oxygen isotopic ratios displayed strong spatial and temporal coherence (R² = 0.99), confirming their combined effectiveness in identifying intrusion patterns. The mass-balance model based on δ¹⁸O revealed that marine water fractions exceeded 50% in the lower estuary for up to eight months annually, reaching as far as 8.5 km inland during dry periods. Complementary δD measurements provided additional insight into water origin and fractionation processes, revealing a slight excess relative to the local meteoric water line (LMWL), indicative of evaporative enrichment during anomalously warm periods. Multivariate regression models (PLS, Ridge, LASSO, and Elastic Net) identified river discharge as the primary limiting factor of intrusion, while wind intensity emerged as a key promoting variable, particularly when aligned with the valley axis. Tidal effects were marginal under standard conditions, except during anomalous events such as tidal surges. The results demonstrate that marine intrusion is governed by complex and interacting environmental drivers. Combined isotopic and machine learning approaches can offer high-resolution insights for environmental monitoring, early-warning systems, and adaptive resource management under climate-change scenarios. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Characterization and Monitoring of Coastal Hydrological Environment for Assessing the Impact of Seawater Intrusion on Coastal Aquifers)

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26 pages, 6665 KB

Open AccessArticle

Using Entity-Aware LSTM to Enhance Streamflow Predictions in Transboundary and Large Lake Basins

by Yunsu Park, Xiaofeng Liu, Yuyue Zhu and Yi Hong

Hydrology 2025, 12(10), 261; https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology12100261 - 2 Oct 2025

Hydrological simulation of large, transboundary water systems like the Laurentian Great Lakes remains challenging. Although deep learning has advanced hydrologic forecasting, prior efforts are fragmented, lacking a unified basin-wide model for daily streamflow. We address this gap by developing a single Entity-Aware Long [...] Read more.

Hydrological simulation of large, transboundary water systems like the Laurentian Great Lakes remains challenging. Although deep learning has advanced hydrologic forecasting, prior efforts are fragmented, lacking a unified basin-wide model for daily streamflow. We address this gap by developing a single Entity-Aware Long Short-Term Memory (EA-LSTM) model, an architecture that distinctly processes static catchment attributes and dynamic meteorological forcings, trained without basin-specific calibration. We compile a cross-border dataset integrating daily meteorological forcings, static catchment attributes, and observed streamflow for 975 sub-basins across the United States and Canada (1980–2023). With a temporal training/testing split, the unified EA-LSTM attains a median Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.685 and a median Kling–Gupta Efficiency (KGE) of 0.678 in validation, substantially exceeding a standard LSTM (median NSE 0.567, KGE 0.555) and the operational NOAA National Water Model (median NSE 0.209, KGE 0.440). Although skill is reduced in the smallest basins (median NSE 0.554) and during high-flow events (median PBIAS −29.6%), the performance is robust across diverse hydroclimatic settings. These results demonstrate that a single, calibration-free deep learning model can provide accurate, scalable streamflow prediction across an international basin, offering a practical path toward unified forecasting for the Great Lakes and a transferable framework for other large, data-sparse watersheds. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Advancing Hydrological Science Through Artificial Intelligence: Innovations and Applications)

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31 pages, 11924 KB

Open AccessArticle

Enhanced 3D Turbulence Models Sensitivity Assessment Under Real Extreme Conditions: Case Study, Santa Catarina River, Mexico

by Mauricio De la Cruz-Ávila and Rosanna Bonasia

Hydrology 2025, 12(10), 260; https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology12100260 - 2 Oct 2025

This study compares enhanced turbulence models in a natural river channel 3D simulation under extreme hydrometeorological conditions. Using ANSYS Fluent 2024 R1 and the Volume of Fluid scheme, five RANS closures were evaluated: realizable k–ε, Renormalization-Group k–ε, Shear Stress Transport k–ω, Generalized k–ω, [...] Read more.

This study compares enhanced turbulence models in a natural river channel 3D simulation under extreme hydrometeorological conditions. Using ANSYS Fluent 2024 R1 and the Volume of Fluid scheme, five RANS closures were evaluated: realizable k–ε, Renormalization-Group k–ε, Shear Stress Transport k–ω, Generalized k–ω, and Baseline-Explicit Algebraic Reynolds Stress model. A segment of the Santa Catarina River in Monterrey, Mexico, defined the computational domain, which produced high-energy, non-repeatable real-world flow conditions where hydrometric data were not yet available. Empirical validation was conducted using surface velocity estimations obtained through high-resolution video analysis. Systematic bias was minimized through mesh-independent validation (<1% error) and a benchmarked reference closure, ensuring a fair basis for inter-model comparison. All models were realized on a validated polyhedral mesh with consistent boundary conditions, evaluating performance in terms of mean velocity, turbulent viscosity, strain rate, and vorticity. Mean velocity predictions matched the empirical value of 4.43 [m/s]. The Baseline model offered the highest overall fidelity in turbulent viscosity structure (up to 43 [kg/m·s]) and anisotropy representation. Simulation runtimes ranged from 10 to 16 h, reflecting a computational cost that increases with model complexity but justified by improved flow anisotropy representation. Results show that all models yielded similar mean flow predictions within a narrow error margin. However, they differed notably in resolving low-velocity zones, turbulence intensity, and anisotropy within a purely hydrodynamic framework that does not include sediment transport. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Advancing Flood Detection, Monitoring & Simulation: Integrating Machine Learning, Remote Sensing & Hydrodynamic Model)

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23 pages, 7845 KB

Open AccessArticle

Projected Runoff Changes and Their Effects on Water Levels in the Lake Qinghai Basin Under Climate Change Scenarios

by Pengfei Hou, Jun Du, Shike Qiu, Jingxu Wang, Chao Wang, Zheng Wang, Xiang Jia and Hucai Zhang

Hydrology 2025, 12(10), 259; https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology12100259 - 2 Oct 2025

Lake Qinghai, the largest closed-basin lake on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, plays a crucial role in maintaining regional ecological stability through its hydrological functions. In recent decades, the lake has exhibited a continuous rise in water level and lake area expansion, sparking growing interest [...] Read more.

Lake Qinghai, the largest closed-basin lake on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, plays a crucial role in maintaining regional ecological stability through its hydrological functions. In recent decades, the lake has exhibited a continuous rise in water level and lake area expansion, sparking growing interest in the mechanisms driving these changes and their future evolution. This study integrates the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), simulations under future Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and statistical analysis methods, to assess runoff dynamics and lake level responses in the Lake Qinghai Basin over the next 30 years. The model was developed using a combination of meteorological, hydrological, topographic, land use, soil, and socio-economic datasets, and was calibrated with the sequential uncertainty fitting Ver-2 (SUFI-2) algorithm within the SWAT calibration and uncertainty procedure (SWAT–CUP) platform. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses confirmed robust model performance, with monthly R² values of 0.78 and 0.79. Correlation analysis revealed that runoff variability is more closely associated with precipitation than temperature in the basin. Under SSP 1-2.6, SSP 3-7.0, and SSP 5-8.5 scenarios, projected annual precipitation increases by 14.4%, 18.9%, and 11.1%, respectively, accompanied by temperature rises varying with emissions scenario. Model simulations indicate a significant increase in runoff in the Buha River Basin, peaking around 2047. These findings provide scientific insight into the hydrological response of plateau lakes to future climate change and offer a valuable reference for regional water resource management and ecological conservation strategies. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Runoff Modelling under Climate Change)

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20 pages, 3818 KB

Open AccessArticle

Seasonal Design Floods Estimated by Stationary and Nonstationary Flood Frequency Analysis Methods for Three Gorges Reservoir

by Bokai Sun, Shenglian Guo, Sirui Zhong, Xiaoya Wang and Na Li

Hydrology 2025, 12(10), 258; https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology12100258 - 30 Sep 2025

Seasonal design floods and operational water levels are critical for high-efficient water resource utilization. In this study, statistical and rational analyses methods were applied to divide the flood season based on seasonal rainfall patterns. The Mann–Kendall test and Theil–Sen analysis were used to [...] Read more.

Seasonal design floods and operational water levels are critical for high-efficient water resource utilization. In this study, statistical and rational analyses methods were applied to divide the flood season based on seasonal rainfall patterns. The Mann–Kendall test and Theil–Sen analysis were used to detect trend changes in the observed flow series. Both stationary and nonstationary flood frequency analysis methods were conducted to estimate seasonal design floods. The Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) in the Yangtze River, China, was selected as the case study. Results show that the TGR flood season could be divided into four periods: the reservoir drawdown period (1 May–20 June), the Meiyu flood period (21 June–31 July), the transition period (1 August–10 September), and the Autumn Rain refill period (11 September–31 October). Trend analyses indicate that the flow series at the TGR dam site exhibited a decreasing trend in recent decades. Upstream reservoir regulation has significantly reduced inflow discharges of TGR, and the nonstationary seasonal 1000-year design floods in the transition period are decreased by about 20%, and the flood control water level could rise from 145 m to 157 m, which can generate 2.288 billion kW h more hydropower (16.57% increase) while maintaining unchanged flood prevention standards. This study provides valuable insights into the TGR operational water level in the flood season and highlights the necessity of considering the regulation impact of upstream reservoirs for design floods and reservoir operational water levels. Full article

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23 pages, 10418 KB

Open AccessArticle

Daily Water Mapping and Spatiotemporal Dynamics Analysis over the Tibetan Plateau

by Qi Feng, Kai Yu and Luyan Ji

Hydrology 2025, 12(10), 257; https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology12100257 - 30 Sep 2025

The Tibetan Plateau, known as the “Asian Water Tower”, contains thousands of lakes that are sensitive to climate variability and human activities. To investigate their long-term and short-term dynamics, we developed a daily surface-water mapping dataset covering the period from 2000 to 2024 [...] Read more.

The Tibetan Plateau, known as the “Asian Water Tower”, contains thousands of lakes that are sensitive to climate variability and human activities. To investigate their long-term and short-term dynamics, we developed a daily surface-water mapping dataset covering the period from 2000 to 2024 based on MODIS daily reflectance time series (MOD09GQ/MYD09GQ and MOD09GA/MYD09GA). A hybrid methodology combining per-pixel spectral indices, superpixel segmentation, and fusion of Terra and Aqua results was applied, followed by temporal interpolation to produce cloud-free daily water maps. Validation against Landsat classifications and the 30 m global water dataset indicates an overall accuracy of 96.89% and a mean relative error below 9.1%, confirming the robustness of our dataset. Based on this dataset, we analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution of 1293 lakes (no less than 5 km²). Results show that approximately 87.7% of lakes expanded, with the fastest growth reaching +43.18 km²/y, whereas 12.3% shrank, with the largest decrease being −5.91 km²/y. Seasonal patterns reveal that most lakes reach maximum extent in October and minimum extent in January. This study provides a long-term, cloud-free daily water mapping product for the Tibetan Plateau, which can serve as a valuable resource for future research on regional hydrology, ecosystem vulnerability, and climate–water interactions in high-altitude regions. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Advances in Cold Regions' Hydrology and Hydrogeology)

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13 pages, 2001 KB

Open AccessArticle

Effect of Geothermal Heating on Deep-Water Temperature in Lake Baikal

by Bair O. Tsydenov

Hydrology 2025, 12(10), 256; https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology12100256 - 30 Sep 2025

Geothermal heating that emanates from the interior of the Earth, including the Baikal Rift Zone, produces potential energy for water movement. The basic concept behind the mechanism of deep-water renewal in Lake Baikal is conditional instability, which is a consequence of the joint [...] Read more.

Geothermal heating that emanates from the interior of the Earth, including the Baikal Rift Zone, produces potential energy for water movement. The basic concept behind the mechanism of deep-water renewal in Lake Baikal is conditional instability, which is a consequence of the joint effects of temperature and pressure on water density. However, an exact trigger of this instability is unknown. In this study, based on a non-hydrostatic 2.5D numerical model taking into account the intraday variability of atmospheric conditions, it was shown that, due to geothermal heating, the water column near the lake bed becomes slightly warmer (0.1–0.2 °C) than ambient waters, which can lead to instability. Simulated temperature distributions showed that 3.4 °C waters gradually shifted along the bed slope to ~650 m on day 1, ~750 m on day 3, ~830 m on day 5, and >1200 m on day 10 in the presence of geothermal heat flux; however, in its absence these waters remained at the level of ~600 m. In view of these findings, a conceptual model of deep convection and a map with potential zones of high ventilation processes in Lake Baikal are proposed. According to the map developed, deep-water renewal is expected to be the most intense at the eastern shore of Lake Baikal because of abnormally high heat release. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Hydrological and Hydrodynamic Processes and Modelling)

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19 pages, 7615 KB

Open AccessArticle

GMesh: A Flexible Voronoi-Based Mesh Generator with Local Refinement for Watershed Hydrological Modeling

by Nicolás Velásquez, Miguel Díaz and Antonio Arenas

Hydrology 2025, 12(10), 255; https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology12100255 - 30 Sep 2025

Partial Differential Equation (PDE)-based hydrologic models demand extensive preprocessing, creating a bottleneck and slowing down the model setup process. Mesh generation typically lacks integration with hydrological features like river networks. We present GHOST Mesh (GMesh), an automated, watershed-oriented mesh generator built within the [...] Read more.

Partial Differential Equation (PDE)-based hydrologic models demand extensive preprocessing, creating a bottleneck and slowing down the model setup process. Mesh generation typically lacks integration with hydrological features like river networks. We present GHOST Mesh (GMesh), an automated, watershed-oriented mesh generator built within the Watershed Modeling Framework (WMF), to address this. While primarily designed for the GHOST hydrological model, GMesh’s functionalities can be adapted for other models. GMesh enables rapid mesh generation in Python by incorporating Digital Elevation Models (DEMs), flow direction maps, network topology, and online services. The software creates Voronoi polygons that maintain connectivity between river segments and surrounding hillslopes, ensuring accurate surface–subsurface interaction representation. Key features include customizable mesh generation and variable refinement to target specific watershed areas. We applied GMesh to Iowa’s Bear Creek watershed, generating meshes from 10,000 to 30,000 elements and analyzing their effects on simulated stream flows. Results show that higher mesh resolutions enhance peak flow predictions and reduce response time discrepancies, while local refinements improve model performance with minimal additional computation. GMesh’s open-source nature streamlines mesh generation, offering researchers an efficient solution for hydrological analysis and model configuration testing. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Hydrological and Hydrodynamic Processes and Modelling)

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29 pages, 3422 KB

Open AccessArticle

Unveiling Asymptotic Behavior in Precipitation Time Series: A GARCH-Based Second Order Semi-Parametric Autocorrelation Framework for Drought Monitoring in the Semi-Arid Region of India

by Namit Choudhari, Benjamin G. Jacob, Yasin Elshorbany and Jennifer Collins

Hydrology 2025, 12(10), 254; https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology12100254 - 28 Sep 2025

This study evaluated ten drought indices focusing on their ability to monitor drought events in Marathwada, a semi-arid region of India. High-resolution gridded monthly total precipitation data for 75 years (1950–2024) from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) were used to [...] Read more.

This study evaluated ten drought indices focusing on their ability to monitor drought events in Marathwada, a semi-arid region of India. High-resolution gridded monthly total precipitation data for 75 years (1950–2024) from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) were used to evaluate the drought indices. These indices were computed across six timescales: 1, 3, 4, 6, 9, and 12 months. A Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH) model was employed to detect temporal volatility in precipitation, followed by a second-order geospatial autocorrelation eigenfunction eigendecomposition using Global Moran’s Index statistics to geolocate both aggregated and non-aggregated precipitation locations. The performance of drought indices was assessed using non-parametric Spearman’s correlation to identify the strength, direction, and similarity of regional-specific drought events. The temporal lag interdependence between meteorological and agricultural droughts was assessed using a non-parametric Spearman’s cross correlation function (SCCF). The findings revealed that the GARCH model with a skewed Student’s t distribution effectively captured conditional temporal volatility and asymptotic behavior in the precipitation series. The model’s sensitivity enabled the incorporation of temporal fluctuations related to droughts and extreme meteorological events. The Bhalme and Mooley Drought Index (BMDI-6) and Z-Score Index (ZSI-6) were the most applicable indices for drought monitoring. Spearman’s cross-correlation analysis revealed that meteorological droughts influenced agricultural droughts with a time lag of up to 4 months. Full article

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19 pages, 2329 KB

Open AccessArticle

Forecasting the Athabasca River Flow Using HEC-HMS as Hydrologic Model for Cold Weather Applications

by Chiara Belvederesi, Gopal Achari and Quazi K. Hassan

Hydrology 2025, 12(10), 253; https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology12100253 - 28 Sep 2025

The Athabasca River flows through the Lower Athabasca Region (LAR) in Alberta, Canada, which is characterized by variable inter-annual weather, long winters and short summers. LAR is important for the extraction of energy resources and industrial activities that lead to environmental concerns, including [...] Read more.

The Athabasca River flows through the Lower Athabasca Region (LAR) in Alberta, Canada, which is characterized by variable inter-annual weather, long winters and short summers. LAR is important for the extraction of energy resources and industrial activities that lead to environmental concerns, including river pollution and exploitation. This study attempts to forecast the Athabasca River at Fort McMurray and understand the suitability of HEC-HMS (Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hydrologic Modeling System) in cold weather regions, characterized by poorly gauged streams. Daily temperature and precipitation records (1971–2014) were employed in two calibration–validation schemes: (1) a temporally dependent partition (1971–2000 for calibration; 2001–2014 for validation) and (2) a temporally independent partition (alternating years assigned to calibration and validation). The temporally independent approach achieved superior performance, with a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.88, outperforming previously developed regional models. HEC-HMS successfully reproduced hydrologic dynamics and peak discharge events under conditions of sparse hydroclimatic data and limited computational inputs, underscoring its robustness for operational forecasting in data-scarce, cold-climate catchments. However, long-term projections may be subject to uncertainty due to the exclusion of anticipated changes in land use and climate forcing. These results substantiate the applicability of HEC-HMS as a cost-effective and reliable tool for hydrological modeling and flow forecasting in support of water resource management, particularly in regions subject to industrial pressures and associated environmental impacts. Full article

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26 pages, 5202 KB

Open AccessArticle

Time-Varying Bivariate Modeling for Predicting Hydrometeorological Trends in Jakarta Using Rainfall and Air Temperature Data

by Suci Nur Setyawati, Sri Nurdiati, I Wayan Mangku, Ionel Haidu and Mohamad Khoirun Najib

Hydrology 2025, 12(10), 252; https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology12100252 - 26 Sep 2025

Changes in rainfall patterns and irregular air temperature have become essential issues in analyzing hydrometeorological trends in Jakarta. This study aims to select the best copula of the stationary and non-stationary copula models and visualize and explore the relationship between rainfall and air [...] Read more.

Changes in rainfall patterns and irregular air temperature have become essential issues in analyzing hydrometeorological trends in Jakarta. This study aims to select the best copula of the stationary and non-stationary copula models and visualize and explore the relationship between rainfall and air temperature to predict hydrometeorological trends. The methods used include combining univariate Lognormal and Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions with Clayton, Gumbel, and Frank copulas, as well as parameter estimation using the fminsearch algorithm, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation, and a combination of both. The results show that the best model is the non-stationary Clayton copula estimated using MCMC simulation, which has the lowest Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) value. This model effectively captures extreme dependence in the lower tail of the distribution, indicating a potential increase in extreme low events such as cold droughts. Visualization of the best model through contour plots shows a shifting center of the distribution over time. This study contributes to developing dynamic hydrometeorological models for adaptation planning of changing hydrometeorological trends in Indonesia. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Trends and Variations in Hydroclimatic Variables: 2nd Edition)

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23 pages, 9727 KB

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Evaluating Seasonal Rainfall Forecast Gridded Models over Sub-Saharan Africa

by Winifred Ayinpogbilla Atiah, Eduardo Garcia Bendito and Francis Kamau Muthoni

Hydrology 2025, 12(10), 251; https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology12100251 - 26 Sep 2025

Changes in the amount and distribution of rainfall highly impact agricultural production in predominantly rainfed farming systems in Africa. Reliable rainfall forecasts on a daily timescale are vital for in-season decision-making. This study evaluated the relative prediction abilities of the European Centre for [...] Read more.

Changes in the amount and distribution of rainfall highly impact agricultural production in predominantly rainfed farming systems in Africa. Reliable rainfall forecasts on a daily timescale are vital for in-season decision-making. This study evaluated the relative prediction abilities of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Season 5.1 (ECMWFSv5.1) and the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) gridded rainfall models across Africa and three sub-regions from 2012–2022. The results indicate that the performance of both models declines with increasing lead times and improves with aggregated or coarser temporal resolutions. ECMWFv5.1 consistently represented observed daily rainfall better than CFSv2 at all lead times, particularly in West Africa. On dekadal timescales, ECMWFv5.1 outperformed CFSv2 across all sub-regions. CFSv2 tended to overestimate low- and high-intensity rainfall events, whereas ECMWFv5.1 slightly underestimated low-intensity rainfall but accurately captured high-intensity events. While ECMWFv5.1 showed superior skill overall, model reliability was generally limited to West Africa; in contrast, both models performed poorly in East Africa. The high probability of detection (POD) indicates that the models are generally effective at identifying rainy days. However, their overall accuracy in forecasting rainfall across Africa varies depending on lead time, region, rainfall intensity, and elevation. While we did not apply bias-correction methods in this study, we recommend that such techniques be used in future work to improve the reliability of forecasts for operational and sectoral applications. This study therefore highlights both the strengths and the limitations of CFSv2 and ECMWFv5.1 for climate impact assessments, particularly in West Africa and low-elevation regions. Full article

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39 pages, 10741 KB

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Modeling the Dynamics of the Jebel Zaghouan Karst Aquifer Using Artificial Neural Networks: Toward Improved Management of Vulnerable Water Resources

by Emna Gargouri-Ellouze, Tegawende Arnaud Ouedraogo, Fairouz Slama, Jean-Denis Taupin, Nicolas Patris and Rachida Bouhlila

Hydrology 2025, 12(10), 250; https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology12100250 - 26 Sep 2025

Karst aquifers are critical yet vulnerable water resources in semi-arid Mediterranean regions, where structural complexity, nonlinearity, and delayed hydrological responses pose significant modeling challenges under increasing climatic and anthropogenic pressures. This study examines the Jebel Zaghouan aquifer in northeastern Tunisia, aiming to simulate [...] Read more.

Karst aquifers are critical yet vulnerable water resources in semi-arid Mediterranean regions, where structural complexity, nonlinearity, and delayed hydrological responses pose significant modeling challenges under increasing climatic and anthropogenic pressures. This study examines the Jebel Zaghouan aquifer in northeastern Tunisia, aiming to simulate its natural discharge dynamics prior to intensive exploitation (1915–1944). Given the fragmented nature of historical datasets, meteorological inputs (rainfall, temperature, and pressure) were reconstructed using a data recovery process combining linear interpolation and statistical distribution fitting. The hyperparameters of the artificial neural network (ANN) model were optimized through a Bayesian search. Three deep learning architectures—Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)—were trained to model spring discharge. Model performance was evaluated using Kling–Gupta Efficiency (KGE′), Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), and R² metrics. Hydrodynamic characterization revealed moderate variability and delayed discharge response, while isotopic analyses (δ¹⁸O, δ²H, ³H, ¹⁴C) confirmed a dual recharge regime from both modern and older waters. LSTM outperformed other models at the weekly scale (KGE′ = 0.62; NSE = 0.48; R² = 0.68), effectively capturing memory effects. This study demonstrates the value of combining historical data rescue, ANN modeling, and hydrogeological insight to support sustainable groundwater management in data-scarce karst systems. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Advancing Hydrological Science Through Artificial Intelligence: Innovations and Applications)

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18 pages, 2878 KB

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Development of a Semi-Analytical Solution for Simulating the Migration of Parent and Daughter Contaminants from Multiple Contaminant Sources, Considering Rate-Limited Sorption Effects

by Thu-Uyen Nguyen, Yi-Hsien Chen, Heejun Suk, Ching-Ping Liang and Jui-Sheng Chen

Hydrology 2025, 12(10), 249; https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology12100249 - 25 Sep 2025

Most existing multispecies transport analytical models primarily focus on inlet boundary sources, limiting their applicability in real-world contaminated sites where contaminants often arise from multiple internal sources. This study presents a novel semi-analytical model for simulating multispecies contaminant transport driven by multiple time-dependent [...] Read more.

Most existing multispecies transport analytical models primarily focus on inlet boundary sources, limiting their applicability in real-world contaminated sites where contaminants often arise from multiple internal sources. This study presents a novel semi-analytical model for simulating multispecies contaminant transport driven by multiple time-dependent internal sources. The model incorporates key transport mechanisms, including advection, dispersion, rate-limited sorption, and first-order degradation. In particular, the inclusion of rate-limited sorption addresses limitations in traditional equilibrium-based models, which often underestimate pollutant concentrations for degradable species. The derivation of this semi-analytical model utilizes the Laplace transform, finite cosine Fourier transform, generalized integral transform, and a sequence of inverse transformations. Results indicate that the concentrations of contaminants and their degradation products are highly sensitive to the variations in time-dependent sources. The model’s most significant contribution lies in its capability to simulate the contaminant transport from multiple internal pollution sources at a contaminated site under the influence of rate-limited sorption. By enabling the representation of multiple time-varying sources, this model fills a critical gap in analytical approaches and provides a necessary tool for accurately assessing contaminant transport in complex, realistic pollution scenarios. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Advances in Groundwater Science and Engineering)

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17 pages, 3306 KB

Open AccessArticle

SWOT Satellite Nodes as Virtual Stations During the 2024 Extreme Flood in Southern Brazil

by Luana Oliveira Sales, Thiago Lappicy, Daniel Beltrão, Alexandre de Amorim Teixeira, Rejane Cicerelli and Tati Almeida

Hydrology 2025, 12(10), 248; https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology12100248 - 25 Sep 2025

In 2024, Rio Grande do Sul (RS), Brazil, faced the most severe flood event in its recorded history, which compromised several ground-based hydrological gauges. The SWOT (Surface Water and Ocean Topography) satellite, capable of measuring water surface elevation (WSE) in continental waters, is [...] Read more.

In 2024, Rio Grande do Sul (RS), Brazil, faced the most severe flood event in its recorded history, which compromised several ground-based hydrological gauges. The SWOT (Surface Water and Ocean Topography) satellite, capable of measuring water surface elevation (WSE) in continental waters, is a valuable tool for providing critical data. This study investigates whether node-level WSE data from the SWOT satellite can effectively function as virtual hydrological stations under such extreme conditions. The study was applied in all of RS state considering 100 in situ gauges and was subdivided into three sections: (i) an evaluation of the variation in SWOTʹs WSE data compared to the variation in in situ levels from telemetric gauges, considering subsequent cycles of passes between July 2023 and April 2025, yielding an MAE = 35 cm and an RMSE = 73 cm after outlier removal; (ii) an evaluation of the variation in SWOTʹs WSE data compared to the variation in telemetric level data, considering one window prior to and another during the extreme event, resulting an MAE = 26 cm and an RMSE = 34 cm; (iii) an analysis of SWOTʹs data availability during the extreme event, when in situ telemetric data were unavailable. The results demonstrate an agreement between the variation observed in SWOT data and that in telemetric gauges in RS, even during extreme events. Moreover, in the absence of in situ data, SWOT was still able to capture WSE data. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Advances in Flood Studies: Enhancing Data Collection, Rating Curves, and Hydrological Analyses)

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