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Environ. Sci. Proc., 2022, ICFBR 2022

The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk

Sardinia, Italy | 3–6 May 2022

Volume Editors:
Pierpaolo Duce, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Italy
Donatella Spano, University of Sassari, Italy
Michele Salis, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Italy
Bachisio Arca, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Italy
Valentina Bacciu, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Italy
Grazia Pellizzaro, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Italy
Costantino Sirca, University of Sassari, Italy

Number of Papers: 130
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Cover Story (view full-size image): ICFBR2022 is organized by the Institute of Bioeconomy of the National Research Council of Italy (CNR IBE, Sassari) and the Departments of Agriculture of the University of Sassari, in collaboration [...] Read more.
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Research

1 pages, 175 KiB  
Abstract
Assessing the Potential Impacts of the Vaia Storm on Wildfire Spread and Behavior in the Veneto Region
by Rolando Rizzolo, Liliana Del Giudice, Roghayeh Jahdi and Michele Salis
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 1; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017001 - 5 Aug 2022
Viewed by 834
Abstract
On 29 October 2018, the Vaia storm hit the Alpine forests of Italy with winds at 200 km h−1. The forest areas totally or partially damaged by the storm were about 41,000 ha, of which about 12,000 ha were in the [...] Read more.
On 29 October 2018, the Vaia storm hit the Alpine forests of Italy with winds at 200 km h−1. The forest areas totally or partially damaged by the storm were about 41,000 ha, of which about 12,000 ha were in the Veneto Region. Large areas and stands of spruce and beech forests, usually not very prone to wildfires, were blown down. Only limited portions of areas with downed trees were harvested in the first year after the storm. Due to the changes in surface fuel conditions, timber understory fuel models in the area affected by the storm were converted to slash-blowdown models, which results in significant short-term changes in potential wildfire behavior. To investigate how wildfire behavior and spread were affected by the above changes, we applied wildfire simulation modeling to assess the variations in wildfire exposure characteristics (such as burn probability and conditional flame length) before and after the storm in the three Veneto provinces (Belluno, Treviso, and Vicenza) where the blown down trees were concentrated. We simulated 50,000 fire events using the MTT algorithm as implemented in Randig, and considering the historical wildfire occurrence data in the study area. Regarding fuel input data for the simulations, we modified the existing fuel map (pre-storm) of the Veneto Region and modified the fuel models of the damaged forest areas considering different standard models of slash, according to the percentage of downed trees. The results highlighted spatial variation in wildfire exposure before and after the storm, with an overall increase of wildfire risk conditions in those areas characterized by both significant levels of blowdown and high historical likelihood of fire ignitions. The methodology proposed and the findings of this study can be useful to inform future wildfire risk and land management in the areas affected by the storm. Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
2 pages, 183 KiB  
Abstract
A New Tool to Assist the Calibration of Fire Growth Models
by Bruno A. Aparício, Akli Benali and Ana C. L. Sá
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 2; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017002 - 5 Aug 2022
Viewed by 760
Abstract
Wildfire spread models are commonly used to estimate fire exposure and risk, locate optimal fuel-treatment units, and study alternative management strategies. One of the most used algorithms to estimate fire spread is the minimum travel time (MTT). This algorithm requires a very time-consuming [...] Read more.
Wildfire spread models are commonly used to estimate fire exposure and risk, locate optimal fuel-treatment units, and study alternative management strategies. One of the most used algorithms to estimate fire spread is the minimum travel time (MTT). This algorithm requires a very time-consuming calibration process to produce reliable fire-spread estimates. Usually, the calibration process includes matching the simulated with observed fire sizes, frequently relying on tuning the fire duration. First, the user sets different duration classes based on the observed pattern and for each class sets a unique value, then runs the model and then assesses its performance. If the model fails to reproduce the historical fire size pattern, the user needs to redefine the fire duration values and repeat the entire process. Here, we present a new tool, specifically developed to assist the user during model calibration. This tool was developed for the command-line version of the MTT algorithm (FConstMTT) and was implemented in R software. We started by testing the optimal number of ignitions/fire seasons needed for the calibration and set it as default. The user can then specify multiple values per class of duration to be tested at the same time (instead of one single value per duration class). All the required input files are created for all the combinations of class durations and fire growth simulated for each combination. These combinations are ranked according to their accuracy, using the root mean square error statistic to compare simulated and observed fire size classes (as defined by the user). We demonstrate the potential of using this tool to speed up and improve the model’s calibration by applying it in four different study areas that are characterized by different fire regimes. We will gather feedback from the scientific community to further develop the tool. Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
2 pages, 173 KiB  
Abstract
Establishment of a Risk and Resilience Assessment Center in the Region of East Macedonia and Thrace in Greece: The Wildfire Hazard Module
by Giorgos Mallinis, Irene Chrysafis, Christos Damianidis, Vassileios Giannakopoulos, Ioannis Mitsopoulos, Christos Akratos, Eugenia Bezirtzoglou, Constantinos Chalioris, Konstantinos Chouvardas, Lazaros Iliadis, Fotios Maris, Vasileios Margaris, Anastasia Paschalidou, Angelos Protopapas, Nikolaos Klimis and Ioannis Dokas
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 3; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017003 - 5 Aug 2022
Viewed by 770
Abstract
The Risk and Resilience Assessment Center (RiskAC) research project is a joint effort of more than 80 researchers from Departments of the Democritus University of Thrace, the Aristotle University and from the Institute of Engineering Seismology and Earthquake Engineering [...] Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
2 pages, 190 KiB  
Abstract
OFIDIA2: An Operational Platform for Fire Danger Prevention and Monitoring
by Maria Mirto, Sandro Luigi Fiore, Valentina Bacciu, Costantino Sirca, Josè Maria Costa Saura, Sonia Scardigno, Valentina Scardigno, Paola Nassisi, Alessandra Nuzzo, Alessandro D’Anca, Antonio Aloisio, Giorgia Verri, Giovanni Coppini, Ivana Caputo, Lucio Pirone, Riccardo Valentini, Donatella Spano and Giovanni Aloisio
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 4; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017004 - 5 Aug 2022
Viewed by 806
Abstract
Preventing and fighting wildfires in the forests and rural areas of Epirus and Apulia has become increasingly demanding due to climate change and socioeconomic factors, i [...] Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
1 pages, 196 KiB  
Abstract
Forest Fires along Highways in the Last 10 Years in Curitiba and Metropolitan Region, Paraná, Brazil
by Kendra Zamproni, Heitor Renan Ferreira, Antonio Carlos Batista, Daniela Biondi and Angeline Martini
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 5; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017005 - 5 Aug 2022
Viewed by 589
Abstract
In recent years, news about accidents, including fatalities, on the highways of Paraná caused by low visibility due to fires occurring along the roads have been recurrent. In this sense, the objective of this study was to relate the highway areas with a [...] Read more.
In recent years, news about accidents, including fatalities, on the highways of Paraná caused by low visibility due to fires occurring along the roads have been recurrent. In this sense, the objective of this study was to relate the highway areas with a high density of geolocated forest fires in the metropolitan region of Curitiba in the years 2011 to 2020. For that, data obtained from the Fire Department of Paraná through the SysBMNew-CCB platform were analyzed. For the spatialization of fire records, the Kernel point density was used, covering a scale from “null” to “very high”. Subsequently, the percentage of road extension present in each density class was verified. In the last 10 years, 9565 fire occurrences were geolocated in the study area, with a greater concentration of points, according to the Kernel density, in the central region represented by the municipalities of Curitiba, São José dos Pinhais, Araucária, Almirante Tamandaré, Fazenda Rio Grande, Pinhais and Quatro Barras. It was possible to verify that 7.71% of the highways were located in an area classified as “very high” in fire density, 11.18% in the “high” class and 8.28% in the “medium” class. That means that, in these regions, greater attention is needed for forest fire control and prevention measures, in order to reduce potential accidents and preserve the lives of road users. Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
1 pages, 198 KiB  
Abstract
Mapping Wildland–Urban Interface for Wildfires in Campina Grande do Sul and Quatro Barras, Paraná, Brazil
by Heitor Renan Ferreira, Antonio Carlos Batista, Kendra Zamproni, Josamar Gomes da Silva Júnior, João Francisco Labres dos Santos and Daniel Lorenzetto
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 6; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017006 - 5 Aug 2022
Viewed by 677
Abstract
Areas where humans and anthropogenic structures encounter or mix with vegetation are called wildland–urban interfaces. These areas present high fire risk; on the one hand, the presence of humans can contribute to the start of forest fires and, on the other, they can [...] Read more.
Areas where humans and anthropogenic structures encounter or mix with vegetation are called wildland–urban interfaces. These areas present high fire risk; on the one hand, the presence of humans can contribute to the start of forest fires and, on the other, they can be drastically affected if a fire occurs. There are different methodologies for the classification of the wildland–urban interface, aiming to serve as a subsidy for preventive and vegetation fire-fighting policies. In Brazil, discussions about the theme are incipient. The municipalities of Campina Grande do Sul and Quatro Barras are located in the state of Paraná and have an extensive vegetative area with social interaction and, in addition, suffer from the presence of wildfires (460 occurrences from 2011 to 2016). The objective of the present study was to delimit the wildland–urban interface of these municipalities, relating to the occurrence of vegetation fires. To achieve the proposed objective, it was necessary to use a methodology for classifying wildland–urban interface areas, already established globally, based on the density of households and vegetation cover, dividing them into intermix and interface zones. The statistical grid of the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics was used to obtain the density of households. The vegetation cover was obtained using the Brazilian Annual Land Use and Land Cover Mapping Project (MapBiomas) for 2019. The results showed that Campina Grande do Sul and Quatro Barras had coverages of 12.5 and 15.2% of municipal areas classified as wildland–urban interface, respectively. When distributing the geolocation of fires that occurred in the municipalities, 15.3% of these were present in wildland–urban interface areas from 2011 to 2016. Based on the results obtained, it is concluded that the delimitation of the wildland–urban interface with this method has potential use for the development of wildfire prevention policies. Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
2 pages, 170 KiB  
Abstract
The Catastrophic 2021 Wildfires in Greece: An Outbreak of Pyroconvective Events
by Georgios Papavasileiou and Theodore M. Giannaros
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 7; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017007 - 5 Aug 2022
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 831
Abstract
During the 2021 fire season in Greece, multiple wildfires occurred, with the most catastrophic ones in southern and eastern continental parts of the country. According to the European Forest Fire Information System, the 2021 fire season in Greece was the second most catastrophic [...] Read more.
During the 2021 fire season in Greece, multiple wildfires occurred, with the most catastrophic ones in southern and eastern continental parts of the country. According to the European Forest Fire Information System, the 2021 fire season in Greece was the second most catastrophic one, with almost 130,000 ha of burnt land. The 2021 fire season was characterized by a prolonged drought that was initiated during spring, as well as a wet snow event during February which was accompanied by severe damage to trees across the eastern parts of the country. Furthermore, during the 2021 summer, two heatwaves occurred, one during the end of June and a second one during the end of July and the beginning of August. An analysis of ERA5 reanalysis data shows that the second heatwave was the longest on record. This preconditioning developed by the aforementioned factors may have contributed to the accumulation of dead fuels and thus setting the environment for extreme fire behavior. The 2021 fire season was extraordinary not only for the extended burnt areas but also for the extreme fire behavior that these wildfires exhibited, particularly those during August. Here, we focus on one of these wildfires that occurred in the northern suburbs of Athens, where exceptional and long-lasting pyroconvection took place during August 3, 5 and 6. Pyroconvection is examined using satellite data from SEVIRI, while the atmospheric conditions during this event are examined using ECMWF analysis data. Our observational analysis validates the long-lasting pyroconvection where pyrocumulus and pyrocumulonimbus clouds were present for many hours. Furthermore, the analysis of the ECMWF data suggests that the increase in atmospheric instability and the moisture transport in the mid-troposphere led to this exceptional pyroconvection event. Finally, we discuss potential mechanisms that contribute to the development of extreme fire behavior through an analysis of temperature and moisture components from seasonal to daily time scales. Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
1 pages, 169 KiB  
Abstract
The Varympompi 2021 (Athens, Greece) Extreme Wildfire: Insights from Coupled Fire–Atmosphere Numerical Simulations
by Theodore Michael Giannaros and Georgios Papavasileiou
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 8; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017008 - 5 Aug 2022
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 855
Abstract
The 2021 fire season was unprecedented in Greece. According to the European Forest Fire Information System, the country faced 79 wildfires that burned more than 130,000 ha. Overall, 70% of the total burnt area of 2021, approximately 94,000 ha, is attributed to five [...] Read more.
The 2021 fire season was unprecedented in Greece. According to the European Forest Fire Information System, the country faced 79 wildfires that burned more than 130,000 ha. Overall, 70% of the total burnt area of 2021, approximately 94,000 ha, is attributed to five wildfires that broke out in early August and evolved into extreme pyroconvective events. Among these events, the Varympompi wildfire (EMSR527a) attracts particular interest for several reasons. First, it took place in the northern suburbs of Greece’s capital city, Athens, thereby jeopardizing the safety of a large population and ultimately causing the death of one volunteer firefighter. Further, it exhibited extreme fire behavior characterized by erratic fire spread, massive spotting, and the occurrence of pyroconvection (EMSR527a). Last, it became the subject of a political and social debate focusing on the environmental conditions that enabled the escalation of its behavior and extent. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to shed light on the physical drivers of the extreme Varympompi wildfire. The factors that contributed to this event are sought in the combination of antecedent conditions that preconditioned fuels and concurrent conditions that enabled the wildfire to couple with the atmosphere. We evaluate our hypotheses using observations and ultra-high-resolution numerical simulations, carried out using the advanced WRF-Fire coupled fire–atmosphere modeling system. Our main focus is on deconstructing the Varympompi wildfire to unravel the relative contributions of fuels, weather, and topography to the observed fire size and behavior. Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
1 pages, 167 KiB  
Abstract
Forecasting the Effects of Wildland Fires on Air Quality and on Human Health
by Ana I. Miranda
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 9; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017009 - 5 Aug 2022
Viewed by 739
Abstract
The impact of smoke from wildland fires on human health is currently a serious concern due to the high levels of emitted gases and particulate matter that affect populations and firefighters. In recent decades, scientific developments regarding smoke dispersion and its impacts were [...] Read more.
The impact of smoke from wildland fires on human health is currently a serious concern due to the high levels of emitted gases and particulate matter that affect populations and firefighters. In recent decades, scientific developments regarding smoke dispersion and its impacts were achieved using modelling systems, which include different components of wildfire behavior, such as fire spread, atmospheric emissions, smoke transport, and chemistry. In Europe, for instance, the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) provides a fire database with fire danger and fire detection forecasts based on satellite imagery. The European Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service (CAMS) is also monitoring emissions from fires using satellite observations and is delivering smoke dispersion information. Over North America, the systems BlueSky and FireWork provide near-real-time forecast data regarding wildfires’ spread and smoke dispersion. The purpose of this paper is to answer two main questions: (i) Why do we need a wildland-smoke-forecasting system? (ii) What should be the main characteristics of this forecasting system? For this, a review of available smoke-dispersion-modelling systems is conducted identifying the main advantages and drawbacks. Based on this review, on the needed computational resources, and on the stakeholders’ needs, in particular those from the health communities, a proposal for a smoke-forecasting system to be applied with a high spatial–temporal resolution is described, including its main components and the way they should be integrated, the input data, and the produced results that have to be oriented towards a clear communication to potentially exposed people, to health entities, and to other stakeholders. Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
2 pages, 186 KiB  
Abstract
Outputs of the CROSSIT SAFER Project: Research and Cooperation to Manage Natural Hazards
by Flavio Taccaliti, Rolando Rizzolo, Blaž Turk, Janez Furlan, Lorenzo Hofer, Klemen Grilj, Aldo Primiero, Nadia Di Narda, Chiara Vianello and Emanuele Lingua
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 10; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017010 - 5 Aug 2022
Viewed by 766
Abstract
The cooperation between the civil protection organizations of conterminous administrations is fundamental because natural hazards do not stop at borders. Natural hazards, such as wildland fires, are prominent threats to human lives and activities, and they put civil protection organizations under stress when [...] Read more.
The cooperation between the civil protection organizations of conterminous administrations is fundamental because natural hazards do not stop at borders. Natural hazards, such as wildland fires, are prominent threats to human lives and activities, and they put civil protection organizations under stress when they occur. These organizations have for long been preparing protocols and procedures to face these hazards. Nonetheless, this expertise is not always shared between the administrations. Bureaucratic barriers, different languages and the accessibility of the information can reduce the coordination before and during an emergency. In most cases, the personal goodwill of the operators solves the problems, but a formal agreement is preferable. A useful agreement should facilitate exchanges between the civil protection organizations and foster research in natural hazards management. Common exercises, harmonization of procedures and protocols, and applied research on risk assessment and planning are the tools to level up different organizations. This effort is of particular importance during wildland fires and across international borders. The CROSSIT SAFER Project, part of Interreg V-A Italia-Slovenija, aims at reinforcing the cooperation among project partners. Nine partners located along the border between Italy and Slovenia joined to make the area more secure against natural hazards, with a focus on wildland fires and interface fires. The coordination between all partners is mandatory in the specific area due to the presence of an international border and the susceptibility of the area to natural hazards, including wildland fires. The project strengthened the bounds between the civil protection organizations, and it will yield new procedures and protocols to manage natural hazards. Thanks to the common exercises, the signature of a formal protocol of agreement and the enhancement of procedures to assess, map and observe natural hazards, the area will become more secure. The results will be of help to local administrators and to the civil protection organizations involved. Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
1 pages, 197 KiB  
Abstract
The Role of Humans Determining Fire Regimes: The AnthropoFire Project
by Magí Franquesa, Fátima Arrogante-Funes, M. Lucrecia Pettinari, Mariano García, Emilio Chuvieco, Javier Salas and Inmaculada Aguado
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 11; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017011 - 5 Aug 2022
Viewed by 847
Abstract
Fire regimes can be defined by the extent of the burned area, size and intensity of fires, fire seasonal length, time of burning and/or annual variability. All these properties are not only controlled by the climate, as humans also play a crucial role [...] Read more.
Fire regimes can be defined by the extent of the burned area, size and intensity of fires, fire seasonal length, time of burning and/or annual variability. All these properties are not only controlled by the climate, as humans also play a crucial role in the distribution and characteristics of fires at the regional and global scale. The AnthropoFire project aims to identify the main human drivers of fire occurrence, and assess how these drivers should be included into fire models and fire risk assessment systems. As part of this task, annual maps of burned area have been generated from time series of Landsat images covering the period 1984–2020 using Google Earth Engine (GEE) over three regions (Bolivia, Spain–Portugal, and Canada) characterized by different fire regimes. For each of these regions, several physical and socio-economic variables such as those related to climate (i.e., temperature, precipitation, drought), vegetation, land use, distance to roads, human settlements, etc., along with the fire characteristics in those areas, were compiled from existing satellite-derived products. These variables are being modelled to analyse the factors that determine and explain fire occurrence. Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
1 pages, 157 KiB  
Abstract
The 1931 Wildfire That Occurred in Supramonte (Sardinia): A Cartographic Study Useful for the Evaluation and Management of the Burned Area after 90 Years
by Michele Puxeddu, Nicola Sanna and Giampiero Incollu
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 12; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017012 - 8 Aug 2022
Viewed by 654
Abstract
Measurements of the burned perimeters of historical wildfires are complex but very important in order to evaluate, understand, and manage post-fire regeneration. In this study, we analysed an extreme wildfire that occurred in the central-eastern part of Sardinia from the 8th to 12th [...] Read more.
Measurements of the burned perimeters of historical wildfires are complex but very important in order to evaluate, understand, and manage post-fire regeneration. In this study, we analysed an extreme wildfire that occurred in the central-eastern part of Sardinia from the 8th to 12th of August 1931 in the Supramonte area (municipal areas of Orgosolo and Urzulei). Here, we present the preliminary results of a new cartographic method for the analysis of the area burned by this wildfire. A good estimation of the burned area is very important to evaluate and manage post-fire regeneration after 90 years. In this work, the spatial and temporal succession of the vegetation after the wildfire was analysed using GIS technology and multitemporal cartographic analyses. Some of the data related to the existing stand structures are also discussed by considering the forest vegetation characteristics in the study area before the event under analysis. Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
2 pages, 187 KiB  
Abstract
Climate Classification of the Fire-Spotting Generated Wildfires
by Vera Egorova and Gianni Pagnini
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 13; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017013 - 8 Aug 2022
Viewed by 630
Abstract
Several cross-sectional studies recognize that conductive climatic conditions, including grave weather conditions favorable for ignition, larger burned areas, increasing fuel load and longer fire season, can lead to extreme events and enable fires to spread faster [...] Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
2 pages, 184 KiB  
Abstract
Harmonizing Wildfire Risk Assessment in Western Balkans through the IPAFF Project
by Paolo Fiorucci, Umberto Pernice, Vladimir M. Cvetković and Rade Rajkovchevski
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 14; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017014 - 9 Aug 2022
Viewed by 732
Abstract
Wildfire risk assessment plays a key role in each phase of the wildfire cycle, enabling the shift from fire suppression to prevention activities while improving decisions for response and restoration activities [...] Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
1 pages, 156 KiB  
Abstract
Contribution of Risk Science and Scenario Planning to Build the 2022 US Wildfire Crisis Strategy
by Alan A. Ager
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 15; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017015 - 8 Aug 2022
Viewed by 667
Abstract
In 2022 the US Forest Service launched an ambitious 10-year strategy to address the escalating wildfire danger in the U.S. “Confronting the Wildfire Crisis: A Strategy for Protecting Communities and Improving Resilience in America’s Forests” includes a 10-year plan to substantially increase the [...] Read more.
In 2022 the US Forest Service launched an ambitious 10-year strategy to address the escalating wildfire danger in the U.S. “Confronting the Wildfire Crisis: A Strategy for Protecting Communities and Improving Resilience in America’s Forests” includes a 10-year plan to substantially increase the scale of forest health and risk reduction fuel treatments over the next decade. The plan expands and prioritizes treatments on 20 million acres on National Forest System lands, and 30 million acres of other federal, state, tribal, and private lands, targeting lands where wildfire ignitions will potentially impact communities. In this talk, we describe the core science components supporting the treatment plan, and its evolution through interactions between our research team and Forest Service leadership. We highlight key science advancements and contributions, including: (1) the development of a multiscale planning framework based on wildfire risk transmission to communities that recognizes the scale of wildfire risk in the western U.S.; (2) scenario planning models that optimized and scheduled treatments over the first 20 years of the plan and re-treatments for an additional 10 years; (3) methods to incorporate the future effect of wildfire during plan implementation, i.e. “planning risk”; (4) an online geospatial registry to track progress; and (5) use of extreme event assessments rather than average burn probability to communicate risk. We describe how these tools and methods could be used in other fire-prone regions to build and test national scale fuel management strategies to guide current and new policy initiatives in response to recent trends in wildfire losses. Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
1 pages, 155 KiB  
Abstract
FirEUrisk—Developing a Holistic, Risk-Wise Strategy for European Wildfire Management
by FirEUrisk Consortium
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 16; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017016 - 8 Aug 2022
Viewed by 767
Abstract
The FirEUrisk Project will develop, test, and disseminate an integrated and science-based strategy for wildfire risk management in Europe [...] Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
1 pages, 166 KiB  
Abstract
Development of Information Databases for Vegetation Fire Behavior Prediction
by Aleksandra V. Volokitina, Mikhail A. Korets and Tatiana M. Sofronova
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 17; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017017 - 8 Aug 2022
Viewed by 594
Abstract
To study the vegetation affected by fires and to create databases useful for fire behavior prediction, three methodological approaches are used: (1) selective, (2) standard, and (3) individual-standard. The selective method consists of empirically studying the drying and moistening dynamics of vegetation fuels [...] Read more.
To study the vegetation affected by fires and to create databases useful for fire behavior prediction, three methodological approaches are used: (1) selective, (2) standard, and (3) individual-standard. The selective method consists of empirically studying the drying and moistening dynamics of vegetation fuels in terms of fire hazard and burning characteristics in relation to dynamic external factors. This method is used in Russia and Canada. In the standard method approach, all vegetation, forest and non-forest, is divided into pyrological types—“fuel models”. This method is used in the USA. The individual-standard method consists of compiling individual pyrological characteristics of vegetation areas from typical elements that reflect the description of the components of a complex of vegetation fuels, as well as the conditions for their moistening, drying, and burning. This method is being developed in Russia. The essence of the method consists of making an individual pyrological description for any plot of forest and non-forest area with the help of the available descriptions (for example, forest inventory) or aerial satellite images, thus creating an information database useful for the prediction of fire behavior. The method is based on long-term pyrological studies of drying and moistening rates of the primary fire carriers in different regions of Russia. Using the developed software, we will present an example of an information database for predicting the behavior of vegetation fires in the Krasnoyarsk Priangarye, the most fire-prone region of Siberia. Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
1 pages, 167 KiB  
Abstract
Spatiotemporal Patterns of Wildfire Likelihood and Intensity in Ardabil Province, NW Iran
by Roghayeh Jahdi, Liliana Del Giudice and Michele Salis
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 18; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017018 - 8 Aug 2022
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 626
Abstract
We analysed the spatiotemporal patterns of wildfire likelihood and intensity in the Ardabil Province, NW Iran. Wildfire simulation modelling based on the minimum travel time (MTT) fire spread algorithm (Finney 2002) was applied to estimate the fire occurrence, size, flame length, and burn [...] Read more.
We analysed the spatiotemporal patterns of wildfire likelihood and intensity in the Ardabil Province, NW Iran. Wildfire simulation modelling based on the minimum travel time (MTT) fire spread algorithm (Finney 2002) was applied to estimate the fire occurrence, size, flame length, and burn probability in the area within the study period (2005–2018). To inform wildfire simulations, we gathered fuel types, fire weather conditions, and topography input data. Historical hourly wind and weather data for the study period were obtained from the Ardabil weather station. Moreover, we obtained historical ignition data from the Ardabil Natural Resources Department and FRWO, Iran. On average, about 97 ignitions per year were observed in the study area. According to the simulations, the burn probability, conditional flame length, and fire size ranged from 0.0003 to 0.01, 0 to 6.75 m, and 0 to 5200 ha, respectively. The highest values of the simulations, and consequently the largest and most severe wildfires, occurred in July, especially in the southern and northern portions of the province. The simulation outputs were consistent with historical fire frequency and current knowledge about fire patterns within the study area. The methodology proposed in this study provides a valuable contribution to the improvement of fuel management and wildfire risk mitigation strategies, adjusted to the specific wildfire conditions of different areas. Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
1 pages, 166 KiB  
Abstract
Biodiversity in Fire Risk Analysis: Response of Plant Viability to Demographic Shifts in Fire-Prone Australian Forests
by Sarah McColl-Gausden, Lauren Bennett and Trent Penman
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 19; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017019 - 8 Aug 2022
Viewed by 700
Abstract
Fire regimes are changing around the world. Fire seasons are lengthening, with high-severity fires occurring more often and in unexpected places. There are continued challenges in predicting future fire regimes; however, it remains crucial to understanding the ongoing risks to biodiversity, life, and [...] Read more.
Fire regimes are changing around the world. Fire seasons are lengthening, with high-severity fires occurring more often and in unexpected places. There are continued challenges in predicting future fire regimes; however, it remains crucial to understanding the ongoing risks to biodiversity, life, and property. Extensive research examines some of the risks to life and property. However, in the fire risk research space, there is often a limited or simplified inclusion of ecological values. Future fire regimes, alongside climatic change, could have profound impacts on biodiversity conservation and ecosystem functions. By having a better understanding of how fire regimes may change, we can predict some of these impacts and either manage for them or facilitate the shifts depending on the risks and impacts involved. In our study, we developed a simulation framework to examine how variation in plant traits influences the viability of populations under future predictions of fire regimes and demographic shifts. Our framework combines a landscape fire regime model which simulates fire over decades to centuries, coupled with a spatially explicit population viability analysis. We applied this approach to plant populations in temperate forest ecosystems in south-eastern Australia to better understand: (1) which functional types are most vulnerable under predicted changes, and which traits contribute most to vulnerability; and (2) which components of future fire regimes and changing climate pose the greatest risk to different plant functional types. Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
1 pages, 168 KiB  
Abstract
Trees as a Legacy of Forest Fires in Scots-Pine-Dominated Stands: Case Study in Latvia
by Jānis Donis, Leonīds Zdors, Guntars Šņepsts, Agita Treimane, Māra Kitenberga and Aris Jansons
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 20; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017020 - 8 Aug 2022
Viewed by 686
Abstract
A large proportion of the forest stands in the hemiboreal zone of Europe are managed for timber production using clear-cutting systems. Stands usually are even-aged, monodominant, or two-layered stands with Norway spruce in undergrowth. There is limited information on the mortality pattern/survival of [...] Read more.
A large proportion of the forest stands in the hemiboreal zone of Europe are managed for timber production using clear-cutting systems. Stands usually are even-aged, monodominant, or two-layered stands with Norway spruce in undergrowth. There is limited information on the mortality pattern/survival of trees after wildfire in these novel ecosystems. A vast majority of forest fires (e.g., 1000 wildfires per year in Latvia on average) are human-induced. Fires are usually not stand-replacing fires, but there is scarce information about the growth of surviving trees after fires. Therefore, the aim of our study was to assess the factors affecting the probability of survival and increment of fire-damaged trees. We established sample plots in the 27 stands as soon as possible after wildfires which occurred during 2004, 2006, and 2008, and measured the diameters and heights of the trees as well as the damage level (scorching of the stem, damage to the foliage, and burning of major roots). For survival analysis, the trees were assessed twice a year for upto 4 years. Additional diameter increments of 607 surviving pines were assessed 5 years after the fire using trees in the stands of similar age and forest type as a control. The results revealed that the probability of survival was positively correlated with tree diameter and negatively correlated with stem-scorching height and the proportion of uncovered root systems. In cases of low fire severity, trees can even increase their diameter increment; however, with increasing fire severity, increment becomes negative, i.e., undisturbed trees generate more stem volume than trees affected by fire. Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
1 pages, 163 KiB  
Abstract
Regional Forest Fires Database: A Tool to Support Forest Fire Management
by Alberto Tinaburri
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 21; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017021 - 8 Aug 2022
Viewed by 569
Abstract
Italian national and regional forest fire-fighting resources, including personnel, vehicles, helicopters and airplanes, are shared [...] Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
1 pages, 169 KiB  
Abstract
Deep Learning-Based Surface Fuel Type Classification from Forest Stand Photographs and Sentinel-2 Time Series
by Pia Labenski, Michael Ewald and Fabian Ewald Fassnacht
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 22; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017022 - 8 Aug 2022
Viewed by 856
Abstract
Surface fuel composition and structure are important drivers of fire behaviour and information on the spatial arrangement of surface fuel types is valuable for fire risk assessment in forest ecosystems. However, field assessment of surface fuel types is very time consuming and mapping [...] Read more.
Surface fuel composition and structure are important drivers of fire behaviour and information on the spatial arrangement of surface fuel types is valuable for fire risk assessment in forest ecosystems. However, field assessment of surface fuel types is very time consuming and mapping using airborne or spaceborne sensors is hindered by the tree canopy. We, therefore, suggest a novel remote and proximate sensing-based approach for mapping surface fuel types, while developing a surface fuel type classification for central European forests based on field inventories and expert opinion. Our approach combines in-forest RGB photographs with time series of multispectral satellite data in a deep learning framework: a convolutional neural network (CNN) based on the VGG-16 architecture and a bidirectional long short-term memory network (LSTM) are trained to classify seven different fire-relevant understory and six litter fuel types. Results are compared between different input data sources: horizontal forest stand photos, forest floor photos, Sentinel-2 time series and combinations thereof. The first results show that understory fuel types can be classified with a cross-validated accuracy of 0.78 and litter fuel types with an accuracy of 0.68 using multiple data sources. In addition, we investigate how majority votes using multiple photos in combination with class probabilities can be used to increase the reliability of the predictions. Our algorithm allows one to validate and improve fuel-type maps derived from remote sensing products with GNSS-located photos of the forest stands. The latter can, for example, be obtained by local forest managers or through citizen science. Our approach can, thus, help create more detailed and reliable surface fuel information for central European forests, which forest practitioners and fire fighters urgently need. Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
2 pages, 174 KiB  
Abstract
Regional Variability and Driving Forces behind Forest Fires in Sweden
by Reinis Cimdins, Andrey Krasovskiy and Florian Kraxner
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 23; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017023 - 9 Aug 2022
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 751
Abstract
Extreme forest fires have been a historic concern in forests in Canada, the Russian Federation, or the USA, and are now becoming an increasing threat in boreal Europe where recent fire events in 2014 and 2018 caught the attention of those in Sweden [...] Read more.
Extreme forest fires have been a historic concern in forests in Canada, the Russian Federation, or the USA, and are now becoming an increasing threat in boreal Europe where recent fire events in 2014 and 2018 caught the attention of those in Sweden [...] Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
2 pages, 169 KiB  
Abstract
Drought, Live Fuel Moisture Content, and Fire Occurrence: A Case Study in North-Western Sardinia (Italy)
by Grazia Pellizzaro, Carla Scarpa, Valentina Bacciu, Bachisio Arca, Michele Salis, Liliana Del Giudice, Pierpaolo Zara, Pierpaolo Duce, Roghayeh Jahdi and Andrea Ventura
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 24; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017024 - 9 Aug 2022
Viewed by 726
Abstract
According to recent projections about future climate conditions, a general decrease in annual precipitation and an increase in the risk of summer drought is likely to occur in southern Europe and across most of the Mediterranean Basin [...] Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
2 pages, 186 KiB  
Abstract
Sharing Information for Wildfire Risk Management: The MEDSTAR Platform
by Mirko D’Andrea, Andrea Trucchia, Guido Biondi, Silvia Degli Esposti and Paolo Fiorucci
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 25; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017025 - 9 Aug 2022
Viewed by 528
Abstract
Within the Interreg-Maritime project, the MEDSTAR platform, an integrated tool for accessing and sharing data for wildfire risk management, has been implemented relying on the technology of the consolidated MyDewetra [...] Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
2 pages, 192 KiB  
Abstract
A Machine Learning Model for Predicting Wildland Surface Fire Spread According to Rothemel’s Equations
by Debora Voltolina, Giacomo Cappellini, Tiziana Apuani and Simone Sterlacchini
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 26; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017026 - 9 Aug 2022
Viewed by 719
Abstract
Our ability to predict wildland surface fire behaviour is of great significance for planning and optimising risk-mitigation and fire-suppression strategies [...] Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
2 pages, 198 KiB  
Abstract
Physical and Non-Physical Fire-Spotting Models: A Comparison Study by a Wildfire Simulator Based on a Cellular Automata Approach
by Marcos López-De-Castro, Andrea Trucchia, Paolo Fiorucci and Gianni Pagnini
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 27; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017027 - 9 Aug 2022
Viewed by 698
Abstract
Wildfire propagation is a non-linear and multiscale system in which multiple physical and chemical processes are involved. One critical mechanism in the spread of wildfires is so-called fire-spotting: a random phenomenon that occurs when embers are transported over large distances by the wind, [...] Read more.
Wildfire propagation is a non-linear and multiscale system in which multiple physical and chemical processes are involved. One critical mechanism in the spread of wildfires is so-called fire-spotting: a random phenomenon that occurs when embers are transported over large distances by the wind, causing the start of new spotting ignitions that jeopardize firefighting actions. Due to its nature, fire-spotting is usually modelled as a probabilistic process. In this work, the physical parametrization of fire-spotting RandomFront has been implemented into the operational wildfire spread simulator PROPAGATOR, which is based on a cellular automata approach. In the RandomFront parametrization, the downwind landing distribution of firebrands is modelled by the means of a lognormal distribution, which is parameterized taking into account the physics involved in the phenomenon. The considered physical parameters are wind field, fire-line intensity, fuel density, firebrand radius, maximum loftable height, as well as factors related to atmospheric stability and flame geometry. The results are compared against an already established fire-spotting empirical submodel for cellular automata-based wildfire models. Preliminary results show that the RandomFront parametrization on the one hand reproduces the main spotting effects given by the available literature model, while on the other hand, it generates a variety of fire-spotting situations as well as long range fluctuations of the burning probability. The physical parametrization allows for complex patterns of fire spreading in this operational simulator context. Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
2 pages, 201 KiB  
Abstract
High Resolution Fuel Type Mapping through Satellite Imagery and Neural Networks for Wildfire Simulations: A Case Study in Spain
by Marcos López-De-Castro, Diego Prieto-Herráez, Maria Isabel Asensio-Sevilla and Gianni Pagnini
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 28; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017028 - 9 Aug 2022
Viewed by 756
Abstract
An important limitation in the simulation of forest fires is the correct characterisation of the surface vegetation documented in land cover maps. Unfortunately, these maps are not always available, or there is a lack of accuracy due to the dilated updating periods. These [...] Read more.
An important limitation in the simulation of forest fires is the correct characterisation of the surface vegetation documented in land cover maps. Unfortunately, these maps are not always available, or there is a lack of accuracy due to the dilated updating periods. These limitations can result in less-accurate predictions when wildfire models are applied to real-world situations employing information from these maps. New remote sensing technologies can provide up-to-date information on the state of the forest surfaces. On the other hand, in the last decade, we have also seen how artificial intelligence algorithms can efficiently process information to solve many different types of problems. Therefore, in this work we propose a complete procedure for fuel type mapping using satellite imagery and artificial deep neural networks. Specifically, our work is based on pixel-based processing cells, so the prediction of the fuel type is carried out by classifying isolated pixels, opening the door to generating high-resolution fuel-type maps. To test our technological solution, we studied an area located in Castile and León, a central Spanish region. The spectral information employed were collected from ETM+ sensor onboard Landsat 7 spacecraft and from ASTER sensor onboard Terra spacecraft. In addition, the classifier is also assisted with information about mean surface temperature and orography collected from MODIS device, and with several spectral indexes computed to enhance the spectral characteristics of the imagery. We have carried out classification of the surface vegetation for different fuel types, according to the Rothermel classification criteria adapted to the vegetation of the Iberian Peninsula. Results show an accuracy near 78%, improving some of the results reached in previous studies and demonstrating the robustness of our procedure. Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
2 pages, 185 KiB  
Abstract
Estimating the Impact on Air Quality of the Portuguese 2017 Forest Fires with the New APIFLAME Model
by Alexandra Monteiro, Carla Gama, Tobias Osswald, Ana Patricia Fernandes and Ana Isabel Miranda
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 29; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017029 - 9 Aug 2022
Viewed by 594
Abstract
The extreme wildfires events recently registered in different parts of the world highlighted again the importance of wildfire smoke’s impact on the society and the economy [...] Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
1 pages, 168 KiB  
Abstract
Understanding Unplanned Fire Ignition Patterns to Improve Early Fire Detection and Resource Deployment
by Nicholas Wilson and Marta Yebra
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 30; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017030 - 9 Aug 2022
Viewed by 585
Abstract
The early detection of unplanned fires can improve the chances of successful containment and suppression, thus reducing the risk of large and destructive fires. However, detecting fires can be difficult, particularly over large landscapes with variable topography and land use. Information on where [...] Read more.
The early detection of unplanned fires can improve the chances of successful containment and suppression, thus reducing the risk of large and destructive fires. However, detecting fires can be difficult, particularly over large landscapes with variable topography and land use. Information on where and when unplanned fire ignitions are most likely to occur can assist in the strategic deployment of fire-detection resources. The Australian Capital Territory, in temperate southeastern Australia, consists of a large urban centre surrounded by fire-prone forests and grasslands. Conditions expected to influence ignition risk, such as human presence, climate, and fuel type, vary considerably across the region, however climate is the main condition that will vary across the entire region from year to year. Ignitions in the remote and mountainous area to the southwest are likely to be limited by high fuel moisture and fewer ignition sources. While the drier and more populated area in the northeast may support more frequent ignitions. Consequently, ignition occurrence is expected to vary considerably across the region and over time. Here, we present an analysis of unplanned fire ignition patterns across the Australian Capital Territory from 2013 to 2021. Specifically, we ask how annual ignition frequency varies across the region and whether these patterns vary with annual climatic fluctuations. These results are discussed within the context of improving early fire detection and resource deployment. Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
1 pages, 195 KiB  
Abstract
Limitations and Opportunities of Spatial Planning to Enhance Wildfire Risk Reduction: Evidence from Portugal
by Fantina Tedim, Catarina Coimbra, André Samora-Arvela, Vittorio Leone, José Aranha, Fernando Correia and Diogo Pinto
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 31; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017031 - 9 Aug 2022
Viewed by 785
Abstract
The potential of spatial planning for reducing natural risks including wildfires is widely recognized [...] Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
1 pages, 167 KiB  
Abstract
Fires’ Impact on Olive Orchards in Kabylia (North of Algeria): Use of GIS and Remote Sensing
by Mourad Kaddouche and Farid Bekdouche
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 32; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017032 - 9 Aug 2022
Viewed by 549
Abstract
This study was carried out in Kabylia in the north of Algeria, an area composed of olive orchards, cork oak forests, and other vegetation. The aim of this study is to assess the impact of fires on olive orchards in the considered area. [...] Read more.
This study was carried out in Kabylia in the north of Algeria, an area composed of olive orchards, cork oak forests, and other vegetation. The aim of this study is to assess the impact of fires on olive orchards in the considered area. Therefore, we used remote-sensing and geographic-information systems. The final result of this study is the classification of our observation spots on a level realized by the overlay of different thematic maps and satellite images. This level varies from null impact in the well-maintained areas to extreme impact in the abandoned areas. Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
2 pages, 169 KiB  
Abstract
Using Crossborder Multisource Burned Area Datasets for Assessing Wildfire Susceptibility Using Machine Learning Techniques
by Giorgio Meschi, Andrea Trucchia, Guido Biondi and Paolo Fiorucci
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 33; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017033 - 9 Aug 2022
Viewed by 740
Abstract
Susceptibility maps constitute a useful tool for wildfire management [...] Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
1 pages, 175 KiB  
Abstract
Site-Specific Wildfire Risk Index in Croatian Wildfire Monitoring and Surveillance System
by Darko Stipaničev, Marin Bugarić, Ljiljana Šerić, Damir Krstinić and Dunja Božić-Štulić
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 34; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017034 - 9 Aug 2022
Viewed by 587
Abstract
Identifying the danger of fire is important for both wildfire prevention and protection [...] Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
2 pages, 186 KiB  
Abstract
Smoke from Extreme Wildfire Events and Human Health
by Diogo Lopes, Isilda Menezes, Ana Patrícia Fernandes, Carla Gama, Sandra Sorte, Johnny Reis, Alexandra Monteiro, Carlos Borrego and Ana Isabel Miranda
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 35; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017035 - 9 Aug 2022
Viewed by 646
Abstract
Recent extreme wildfire events (EWE) in Australia, the United States of America (USA), Greece and Portugal highlighted the seriousness of wildfire smoke impacts on society [...] Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
1 pages, 197 KiB  
Abstract
The Effect of Prescribed Burning in Decreasing Wildfire Extent in Portugal
by David A. Davim, Carlos G. Rossa, José M. C. Pereira and Paulo M. Fernandes
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 36; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017036 - 9 Aug 2022
Viewed by 622
Abstract
Wildfire management in southern Europe is increasingly challenged by the combination of fire weather, flammable landscapes, rugged terrain, and the wildland–urban interface. Prescribed burning (PB) is a promising fuel reduction treatment, but evidence of its effectiveness in reducing wildfire extent in Europe remains [...] Read more.
Wildfire management in southern Europe is increasingly challenged by the combination of fire weather, flammable landscapes, rugged terrain, and the wildland–urban interface. Prescribed burning (PB) is a promising fuel reduction treatment, but evidence of its effectiveness in reducing wildfire extent in Europe remains scarce. Using 36 years of fire mapping in Portugal, we aimed to assess PB’s effectiveness in reducing wildfire extent. We quantified PB–wildfire encounter probability through survival analysis and evaluated the unburned fraction of PB patches upon wildfire encounter as a function of fuel-, topography-, treatment-, and wildfire-related characteristics, using generalized linear modeling and regression tree analysis. We used linear and generalized linear mixed models to quantify the annual wildfire extent decrease due to PB in nine selected sub-regions, i.e., PB leverage. Larger PB units survived more wildfire encounters, which were frequent (42% of the total) and happened soon after treatment (75% of the cases in the first 4 years). However, the unburned fraction was very low and was determined mostly by wildfire behavior. Wildfire extent was variable among the study regions, but the annual PB effort was typically less than 0.5% of the landscape. Wildfire extent was dominated by fire weather and ignition density but decreased with past fire extent. This resulted in an estimated PB leverage value of 0.10, i.e., 10 ha of treatment are currently required to decrease wildfire area by one ha, which is consistent with the PB-wildfire encounter findings. Our results highlight the need to scale up the PB effort in Portugal. Although the treatment location favors encounters, PB units should be larger and distributed in the landscape such that the wildfire spread is disrupted inside and around treatments, thus reducing its final size and increasing leverage. Our work provides information to fire management agencies towards improved planning and development of synergies between fuel management and fire suppression operations. Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
2 pages, 200 KiB  
Abstract
RISICO, An Enhanced Forest Fire Danger Rating System: Validation on 2021 Extreme Wildfire Season in Southern Italy
by Nicolò Perello, Andrea Trucchia, Mirko D’Andrea, Silvia Degli Esposti and Paolo Fiorucci
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 37; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017037 - 9 Aug 2022
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 858
Abstract
Forest Fire Danger Rating (FFDR) models are widely used in fire management decision-making, from daily operations, to seasonal planning and long-term land management [...] Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
2 pages, 551 KiB  
Abstract
Performance and Efficiency of Machine Learning Based Approaches for Wildfire Susceptibility Mapping
by Marj Tonini, Mario G. Pereira and Paolo Fiorucci
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 38; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017038 - 9 Aug 2022
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 756
Abstract
Estimating the probability of wildfire occurrence in certain areas, under particular environmental and anthropogenic conditions, is a powerful tool to support forest protection and management plans [...] Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
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2 pages, 174 KiB  
Abstract
The Chemical Composition Changes of Aleppo Pine (Pinus halepensis Mill.) and Black Pine (Pinus nigra J.F.Arnold) Wood after a Forest Fire: Usability for Bioproducts
by Damir Barčić, Alan Antonović, Roman Rosavec, Tomislav Dubravac, Mario Ančić and Josip Ištvanić
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 39; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017039 - 9 Aug 2022
Viewed by 611
Abstract
After a forest fire, relevant damages are evident in the ecological, but also in the economic sense [...] Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
2 pages, 215 KiB  
Abstract
High-Resolution Modeling of Lightning Ignition Likelihood in Spain
by Marcos Rodrigues, Pere Joan Gelabert, Víctor Resco de Dios, Adrián Jiménez-Ruano, Luís Torres, Jaime Ribalaygua and Cristina Vega-García
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 40; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017040 - 9 Aug 2022
Viewed by 781
Abstract
Lightning-caused fires are comparatively rare in Europe, but they may affect remote forested areas and result in large-scale burnings [...] Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
3 pages, 554 KiB  
Abstract
Optimum Allocation of Firebreaks Networks during the Design Process in Golestan National Park, Northeastern Iran
by Mhd Wathek Alhaj Khalaf, Shaban Shataee-Jouibary and Roghayeh Jahdi
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 41; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017041 - 9 Aug 2022
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 733
Abstract
Due to their increasing frequency wildfires and the area burned in natural areas, wildfires are becoming increasingly challenging to control [...] Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
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1 pages, 177 KiB  
Abstract
Equilibrium Moisture Content of Dead Fine Fuels of Pubescent Oak (Quercus pubescens Willd.) and Holm Oak (Quercus ilex L.)
by Nera Bakšić and Darko Bakšić
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 42; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017042 - 9 Aug 2022
Viewed by 514
Abstract
The moisture content of dead fine forest fuels is a central component of nearly all fire behaviour and fire danger rating systems. For modelling purposes, equilibrium moisture content curves are an important input parameter. When a dead fine fuel is exposed to an [...] Read more.
The moisture content of dead fine forest fuels is a central component of nearly all fire behaviour and fire danger rating systems. For modelling purposes, equilibrium moisture content curves are an important input parameter. When a dead fine fuel is exposed to an environment of constant temperature and relative humidity, its moisture content increases or decreases until it reaches a steady state called the equilibrium moisture content. It is an important characteristic of a dead fine fuel, as it defines the end points toward which the moisture content tends. The equilibrium moisture content is a function of fuel temperature, relative humidity and fuel type, as well as of whether the particle has been adsorbing or desorbing moisture. The main objective of this study was to derive equilibrium moisture content curves (isotherms) for dead fine fuels of important Mediterranean oak species, pubescent oak (Quercus pubescens Willd.) and holm oak (Quercus ilex L.). Experimental measurements of twenty litter samples (10 g) per tree species were used for determination of equilibrium moisture content values. Isotermal stepped testing was conducted in the growth chamber through each sorption phase, at 21.1 °C, over a range of relative humidity values 20% to 90%, in 10% steps. The equilibrium moisture content curves were obtained using nonlinear least-squares fitting based on the measurements and Van Wagner’s model. Both adsorption and desorption measurements followed a typical sigmoid shaped curve. Equilibrium moisture content was an average of 1.5% and 1.1% higher for desorption than adsorption, demonstrating typical hysteresis. The experimental equilibrium moisture content values for pubescent oak litter were within the range of those published for other broadleaves species, while the equilibrium moisture content values for holm oak litter are among those published for conifers. Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
1 pages, 158 KiB  
Abstract
Flammability and Combustibility of Some Mediterranean Species Related with Forest Fires in Croatia
by Roman Rosavec, Damir Barčić, Tomislav Dubravac, Alan Antonović and Željko Španjol
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 43; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017043 - 9 Aug 2022
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 672
Abstract
Climatic conditions are extremely important for both the ignition and spread of forest fires. Flammability and fire spread vary depending on the interactions with environmental factors, such as weather, fuels, and topography. Among the fuel variables that affect forest fires, the fuel moisture [...] Read more.
Climatic conditions are extremely important for both the ignition and spread of forest fires. Flammability and fire spread vary depending on the interactions with environmental factors, such as weather, fuels, and topography. Among the fuel variables that affect forest fires, the fuel moisture content, flammability, and combustibility can widely vary between diverse fuel types. The areas with the highest number of fires show significant variability and differences in air temperature, humidity, and precipitation. These factors have a great influence on the flammability, burning duration, and fuel moisture content of several Mediterranean species. This paper investigates and analyzes the flammability and combustibility characteristics of two Mediterranean species that are important for the Adriatic area in Croatia: the climazonal Holm oak (Quercus ilex L.) and the Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensis Mill.). The latter is an important conifer used for afforestation and reforestation. The results of linear correlation coefficients of flammability delay of these species showed a statistically significant and very strong correlation between the flammability delay and moisture content of the tested samples. Analysis of variance in burning duration showed a statistically significant difference between almost all used variables. The results indicate a significant role of the live fuel moisture content (LFMC) in the flammability delay (DI) and burning time (DC) of natural fuels. Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
1 pages, 182 KiB  
Abstract
Forest Fuel Loads Characterization: A Geostatistical Approach Investigated during the MED-Star Project
by Cristiano Foderi, Matteo Pecchi, Niccolò Frassinelli, Elena Marra, Gherardo Chirici and Enrico Marchi
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 44; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017044 - 9 Aug 2022
Viewed by 677
Abstract
In the last decade, a progressive and continuous increase in devastating forest fires has been observed. The changes in wildfire characteristics show higher levels of fire danger, longer fire seasons, and intense and rapidly spreading “mega-fires”. In this context, the Interreg IT-FR Maritime [...] Read more.
In the last decade, a progressive and continuous increase in devastating forest fires has been observed. The changes in wildfire characteristics show higher levels of fire danger, longer fire seasons, and intense and rapidly spreading “mega-fires”. In this context, the Interreg IT-FR Maritime (cross-border Interreg Italy-France Maritime 2014–2020 programme) MED-Star project (Strategies and measures for fire risk mitigation in the Mediterranean area), co-financed by the European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development (EAFRD), aims to strengthen capacities in fire forecasting, prevention, and suppression. In order to evaluate wildfire risk, a better understanding of distribution and characteristics of different forest fuels is crucial. Within the MED-Star project, we carried out a field survey to collect information about fuel loads on accessible areas and investigated a geostatistical approach to extend forest fuel distribution quantification to the rest of the territories. The field survey campaign acquired more than 12.000 observations on fuel loads recorded by FuelGeoData App, a mobile device application, which was developed in the project by vanzotech srl (Rimini, Italy) and is based on the photoload sampling method designed by Keane in 2007. The recorded fuel loads were modelled using information related to stands height and Sentinel missions’ remotely sensed data. The stands height was obtained as a crown height model (CHM) produced by NASA as part of the GEDI (Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation) project. Other remote sensed information was derived by Sentinel 1 and Sentinel 2 cloud free images recorded in July 2021 (same period of the field survey). Our geostatistical approach was based on the random forest algorithm using the 70% of observations to train the model and the 30% to test model accuracy. The model results showed a general prediction accuracy higher than other previous studies in most of the fuel types investigated, highlighting how the number of observations and, as a consequence, the training sample size influence the predictive potential of the model. Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
1 pages, 167 KiB  
Abstract
Forest Fire Risk Reduction Strategies: Results and Perspectives of the MED-Foreste Project
by Cristiano Foderi, Enrico Marchi, Annalaura Vannuccini and Cecilia Cappelli
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 45; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017045 - 9 Aug 2022
Viewed by 665
Abstract
MED-Foreste—management of forest ecosystems to reduce wildfire risk—is a “simple” project, started in April 2019, co-financed by the European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development (EAFRD) as a part of a larger family of projects called MED (MEDiterranean area) between Italy and France. The [...] Read more.
MED-Foreste—management of forest ecosystems to reduce wildfire risk—is a “simple” project, started in April 2019, co-financed by the European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development (EAFRD) as a part of a larger family of projects called MED (MEDiterranean area) between Italy and France. The main aim of MED-Foreste is to increase and disseminate fire prevention awareness between local decision makers and citizens through experimental treatments and pilot sites designed to evaluate the efficiency and effectiveness of different strategies of fire risk reduction in each region involved. The assessment of different treatments (mechanized understory reduction, thinning, pruning, prescribed fire, and grazing), applied individually or in combination (i.e., prescribed fire or grazing after mechanized fuel reduction), was carried out starting from different points of view. Taking into account economical, ecological, and social impacts, MED-Foreste aims to provide a wide set of information to decision makers, permitting them to choose the best strategy for their territory in terms of fire risk reduction, costs, ecological responses, and social feedback. Ecological impacts and fuel reduction were analyzed through a pre–post intervention survey in each experimental pilot site and with a monitoring plan in order to evaluate the duration of treatments, fuel dynamics, and biodiversity evolution. Environmental impacts were also taken into account through a life cycle assessment approach considering all the inputs/outputs involved in fuel treatments in relation to their duration (a similar condition to pretreatment status). Costs were analyzed by an analytical approach and compared to regional price lists in order to define standard costs for each treatment type with the aim to provide a tool to ease decision processes and better exploit financing opportunities in national rural development programs. Moreover, a specific framework of administrative good practices was developed to analyze social impacts related to the involved territories. Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
3 pages, 201 KiB  
Abstract
Effect of Fuel Management and Forest Composition on Fire Behavior
by Miguel Pacheco, Aline Oliveira, Paulo Fernandes and Joaquim Silva
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 46; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017046 - 9 Aug 2022
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 697
Abstract
In Southern Europe, Portugal has registered the largest number of wildfires and the second largest burned area [...] Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
1 pages, 190 KiB  
Abstract
The Intermed Project
by Virginie Tihay-Felicelli, Domenico Di Nardo, Francesca Lantero, Eric Maillé, Olivier Riffard, Costantino Sirca and Annalaura Vannuccini
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 47; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017047 - 10 Aug 2022
Viewed by 762
Abstract
INTERMED (Interventions pour gérer et réduire le risque d’incendie à l’interface habitat-espace naturel) deals with the fire risk at Wildland Urban Interface (WUI) and brings together Collectivité de Corse, University of Corsica, INRAE, University of Sassari, Regione Liguria, Associazione Nazionale Comuni Italiani Toscana [...] Read more.
INTERMED (Interventions pour gérer et réduire le risque d’incendie à l’interface habitat-espace naturel) deals with the fire risk at Wildland Urban Interface (WUI) and brings together Collectivité de Corse, University of Corsica, INRAE, University of Sassari, Regione Liguria, Associazione Nazionale Comuni Italiani Toscana and the Union of Municipalities of Versilia. The objective is to identify the fire risk at WUI and to define effective means to reduce their vulnerability. INTERMED is divided into three parts: The identification and mapping of fire risk at WUI, realized by the Collectivité de Corse, the University of Sassari and INRAE. This part develops methodologies for fire-risk assessment in the WUI areas and WUI fire-risk mapping at a fine scale, including both hazard and vulnerability components. The second part is an assessment of the vulnerability of buildings, linked to the vegetation around buildings, performed by the University of Corsica and INRAE. The objective is to provide recommendations for landscaping arrangements around buildings at WUI to reduce construction vulnerability. This part is based on real-scale experiments and numerical simulations. The third part is a test of pilot actions realized by Regione Liguria, Associazione Nazionale Comuni Italiani Toscana, INRAE and Union of Municipalities of Versilia. In this part, the following actions are proposed: the creation of the project platform for a Spatial Decision Support Tool to assess buildings’ vulnerability; the creation of small infrastructures to reduce the risk of WUI fires in a residential area of Quercianella; the creation of three firewise communities in the municipalities with high fire risk; the realization of a hazard map regrouping a susceptibility map and a potential fire-line intensity map; the purchase of a prototype vehicle to assist people in WUI areas and a telecommunication kit for fire fighters; finally, the creation of evacuation routes and safe waiting areas for tourists and citizens in the forest complex of the Pineta di Levante. Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
2 pages, 187 KiB  
Abstract
Characterizing and Mapping the Wildland-Anthropic Interface of the Italy-France Maritime Cooperation Area
by Liliana Del Giudice, Bachisio Arca, Carla Scarpa, Grazia Pellizzaro, Roghayeh Jahdi, Pierpaolo Duce and Michele Salis
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 48; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017048 - 9 Aug 2022
Viewed by 631
Abstract
In this work, we proposed a standardized approach to characterize and map wildland-anthropic interfaces (WAI) in the neighboring areas of the Italy-France Maritime cooperation area, which includes three Italian (Sardinia, Tuscany and Liguria) and two French (Corsica and Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur) regions and covers [...] Read more.
In this work, we proposed a standardized approach to characterize and map wildland-anthropic interfaces (WAI) in the neighboring areas of the Italy-France Maritime cooperation area, which includes three Italian (Sardinia, Tuscany and Liguria) and two French (Corsica and Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur) regions and covers approximately 93,000 km2 of land. For the purpose of this study, we defined WAIs as the areas in which anthropic buildings (isolated housings, industrial, commercial structures, etc.) coexist with wildland vegetation. As the first step, we extracted raw data from different geospatial files and sources to characterize, at fine-scale, both anthropic buildings and vegetation types for the whole study area. We then reclassified anthropic blocks according to structure density and percentage of area covered, and determined the main land cover types (rural, forest, non-vegetated areas, or water bodies). In addition, we identified the so-called “intense wildfire and ember exposure grids” by determining a 2 km buffer from dense and contiguous forest areas (>5 km2). We finally combined the above layers and derived the 100 m wildland-anthropic interface raster map of the study area. The final WAI map was subdivided into four main classes: (a) anthropic: medium anthropic presence and high anthropic presence; (b) wildland-anthropic (WA): WA interface and WA intermix; (c) dispersed anthropic (DA): DA in forest areas, DA in rural areas, and DA in non-vegetated areas; (d) non-anthropic: forest areas, rural areas, non-vegetated areas, and water bodies. We then characterized total area and percentage of the diverse classes of anthropic, WA, DA, and non-anthropic areas, considering the whole study area and the five regions, and highlighted spatial differences among and within classes and regions. The results of this work can be useful to inform and optimize strategies to mitigate wildfire impacts in the surroundings of anthropic areas of the Italy-France Maritime cooperation area. Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
2 pages, 167 KiB  
Abstract
Emerging Challenges of Wildfire Risk Management in the Islands of the Aegean Archipelago
by Palaiologos Palaiologou and Kostas Kalabokidis
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 49; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017049 - 10 Aug 2022
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 582
Abstract
The islands of the Aegean Archipelago in Greece face challenges regarding their social and natural systems from tourism, the recent immigration crisis, the ongoing rural exodus, changes in the established agricultural and livestock farming practices, urban expansion to natural areas and the post-2010 [...] Read more.
The islands of the Aegean Archipelago in Greece face challenges regarding their social and natural systems from tourism, the recent immigration crisis, the ongoing rural exodus, changes in the established agricultural and livestock farming practices, urban expansion to natural areas and the post-2010 economic environment, which, in turn, affect wildfire occurrence, spread and intensity [...] Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
1 pages, 156 KiB  
Abstract
Firefighting Aircraft: Understanding Current Practices to Shape Future Response in a Changing World
by Crystal Stonesifer, Cal Bryan, Jude Bayham, David Calkin and Erin Belval
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 50; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017050 - 10 Aug 2022
Viewed by 794
Abstract
Climate change and human development are impacting wildfires and the ways they are suppressed around the world. Many countries utilize aircraft that deliver water or chemicals to curtail fire spread, and the use of these aircraft is also changing along with the demands [...] Read more.
Climate change and human development are impacting wildfires and the ways they are suppressed around the world. Many countries utilize aircraft that deliver water or chemicals to curtail fire spread, and the use of these aircraft is also changing along with the demands for increased suppression capacity. In the United States, Forest Service managers have adapted the national fleet of large airtankers to shifting fire demands with, among other actions, adoption of modern jet-powered aircraft. However, there is strong public sentiment that more airtankers are required to fully tackle the growing wildfire suppression problem. In this work, we utilize a novel and comprehensive dataset of automated airtanker drop records to characterize national-scale use from 2017 through 2021 for the federal large airtanker fleet. Through characterization of where, when, and on what fires drops occurred, we demonstrate that relatively few fires, compared to all fires that receive airtanker drops, account for a disproportionate amount of total airtanker use. We examine spatial and temporal characteristics of these outlier fires to describe potential patterns in demand pulses, and we use this information to discuss implications for potential fleet size decisions with respect to meeting future firefighting aircraft demand in a changing world. Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
1 pages, 164 KiB  
Abstract
Integrating Pre-Season Planning with Event Response: The PODS—RMA Framework
by David Calkin and Christopher O’Connor
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 51; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017051 - 10 Aug 2022
Viewed by 634
Abstract
Over the last 5 years, researchers at the US Forest Service’s Rocky Mountain Research Station have worked with land managers to develop collaborative pre-season wildfire response and fuel management plans using the Potential Operational Delineations (PODs) process. Concurrently, team members have worked with [...] Read more.
Over the last 5 years, researchers at the US Forest Service’s Rocky Mountain Research Station have worked with land managers to develop collaborative pre-season wildfire response and fuel management plans using the Potential Operational Delineations (PODs) process. Concurrently, team members have worked with wildfire management personnel and incident management participants to deliver new decision-support tools that aim to improve the effectiveness of incident response through the Risk Management Assistance program (RMA). These two efforts share a common set of background data that identify values at risk, locations where suppression actions are most likely to be effective, and areas where responders can safely and efficiently work. I will introduce the basic structure of PODs and RMA, discuss how these programs have been implemented, and finally discuss how they provide a common language and framework for considering fire management throughout the planning, mitigation, and response functions. Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
1 pages, 170 KiB  
Abstract
Self-Resistance Forest Stands and Landscape
by Antonella Massaiu and Muriel Tiger
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 52; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017052 - 10 Aug 2022
Viewed by 575
Abstract
Some forests are so valuable that we aim at avoiding their destruction when run by a fire [...] Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
2 pages, 206 KiB  
Abstract
Wildfire Simulation Modeling to Analyze Wildfire Hazard and Exposure in the Italy–France Maritime Cooperation Area (Sardinia, Corsica, Tuscany, Liguria and Provence–Alpes–Côte d’Azur)
by Michele Salis, Bachisio Arca, Liliana Del Giudice, Roghayeh Jahdi, Grazia Pellizzaro, Alan A. Ager, Fermin Alcasena Urdiroz, Carla Scarpa, Matilde Schirru, Valentina Bacciu, Marcello Casula, Fabrizio Pedes, Andrea Ventura, Annalisa Canu and Pierpaolo Duce
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 53; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017053 - 10 Aug 2022
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 738
Abstract
In this work, we will present the transboundary wildfire simulation system used to analyze fine-scale (100-m resolution) wildfire hazard and exposure in the regions of the Italy–France Maritime cooperation area (Sardinia, Corsica, Tuscany, Liguria and Provence–Alpes–Côte d’Azur), which covers about 93,000 km2 [...] Read more.
In this work, we will present the transboundary wildfire simulation system used to analyze fine-scale (100-m resolution) wildfire hazard and exposure in the regions of the Italy–France Maritime cooperation area (Sardinia, Corsica, Tuscany, Liguria and Provence–Alpes–Côte d’Azur), which covers about 93,000 km2 of land. The study area is characterized by a variety of ecological, cultural, anthropic and touristic values that are heavily threatened by wildfires, mostly during the summer season. The wildfire issues in the area are expected to worsen in future years due to a number of contributing factors, including climate change, the abandonment of agrosilvopastoral areas with the resulting increase in fuel load and continuity and the expansion of urban interfaces into fire-prone wildlands. To perform our analysis, among the large set of wildfire spread models available, in the framework of the MED-Star project, we have selected the Minimum Travel Time (MTT) algorithm of Finney (2002) as implemented in FConstMTT. As inputs for our simulations, we produced underlying fuel maps derived from regional land use and forest maps and focused on the historical moisture and weather conditions and patterns associated with the largest wildfires that affected the study area in the last 20 years. The simulation outputs allowed us to characterize spatial variations in wildfire spread and hazard among and within provinces and regions and to identify the most significant hot-spot areas. In addition, we combined the simulated raster data with several explanatory variables and spatial layers (e.g., wildland–anthropic interface maps; provinces; climatic zones; etc.) to characterize exposure levels at different levels. Findings from this work improve regional awareness and knowledge about the spatial dynamics and patterns of wildfire exposure and hazard in the Italy–France Maritime cooperation area. Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
2 pages, 203 KiB  
Abstract
Wildfire Hazard and Landscape Connectivity Assessment in the Serra da Cabreira Mountain, Portugal
by Ana C. L. Sá, Bruno Aparicio, Chiara Bruni, Akli Benali, Michele Salis, Fábio Silva, Alfredo Rocha, Martinho Marta-Almeida, Susana Cardoso and José Pereira
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 54; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017054 - 10 Aug 2022
Viewed by 688
Abstract
The impacts of wildfires have been increasing in the Mediterranean Basin, and Portugal recently experienced some of the most extreme fire seasons on record. It is urgent to shift wildfire management goals by re-balancing wildfire suppression and mitigation efforts, to reduce fire intensity [...] Read more.
The impacts of wildfires have been increasing in the Mediterranean Basin, and Portugal recently experienced some of the most extreme fire seasons on record. It is urgent to shift wildfire management goals by re-balancing wildfire suppression and mitigation efforts, to reduce fire intensity and increase the effectiveness of suppression operations. Our study aims at assessing wildfire hazard in Serra da Cabreira (NW Portugal) by combining landscape-scale wildfire modelling and landscape wildfire connectivity analysis. The impact of two levels of landscape treatment in wildfire hazard decrease was also assessed. We used the 95th percentile historical weather conditions (2001–2019) to simulate fireline intensity (FLI), burn probability (BP) and fire size (FS), using the Minimum Travel Time (MTT) algorithm implemented in FlamMap (Vers.6). We calculated wildfire connectivity using the simulated FLI to: (1) guide the choice of the area of the landscape to be treated; and (2) identify the relative importance of single fuel patches to overall landscape connectivity. Results showed that significant decreases in BP (36%), FS (39%), FLI (61%) and wildfire connectivity (48%) were obtained when 20% of the landscape was treated. For the same treatment level, the median FLI decreases to values below 2000 kW/m, with likely areas to burn at high intensity decreasing by 4.4%. We also estimated ca. 15% decrease in the area with fires larger than 1000 ha. We discuss the results and highlight the relevance of integrating wildfire connectivity into wildfire hazard assessment, to support landscape fuel management plans aiming at decreasing fire intensity and thus the mitigation of its impacts. Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
1 pages, 166 KiB  
Abstract
Climate Change and Nighttime Fire Behavior
by Timothy Brown, John Abatzoglou, Dan McEvoy, Dana Skelly, Lise Ann St. Denis and Tami Parkinson
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 55; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017055 - 10 Aug 2022
Viewed by 798
Abstract
It is well-documented that global nighttime temperatures have been increasing during the past few decades. For example, the average California nighttime temperature has increased at a rate of 0.7 °C per decade over the past 20 years. Temperature and atmospheric moisture (typically indicated [...] Read more.
It is well-documented that global nighttime temperatures have been increasing during the past few decades. For example, the average California nighttime temperature has increased at a rate of 0.7 °C per decade over the past 20 years. Temperature and atmospheric moisture (typically indicated by relative humidity in fire danger indices) are closely related, and dead fuel moisture (DFM) is a function of temperature and moisture via the equilibrium moisture content. Typically, as night temperature decreases, relative humidity increases, as does the DFM. Higher values of DFM is a factor in reducing fire behavior as the increased moisture reduces flammability. However, warmer nighttime temperatures and lower humidity allow fuel to stay drier, thus enabling fires to be more active throughout the night. Historically, fire management would often count on fires “laying down” at night as part of their tactical planning. However, an increasing number of incident reports across the western U.S have been highlighting active nocturnal fire behavior. This has consequences for firefighter safety and suppression success, impacting managed fire activities during the night, as well as the carryover into the next day. In this presentation, we examine the western U.S. trend in nighttime temperature in the context of nighttime fire behavior, discuss the potential fire management impact, and provide a global perspective. Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
2 pages, 218 KiB  
Abstract
Is Native Forest an Alternative to Prevent Wildfire in the WUI in Central Portugal?
by Aline Oliveira, Joaquim Silva, José Gaspar, Nuno Guiomar and Paulo Fernandes
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 56; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017056 - 10 Aug 2022
Viewed by 820
Abstract
The expansion of the 2017 megafires in Portugal was observed to be locally halted by native broadleaf forest patches [...] Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
2 pages, 195 KiB  
Abstract
Clues of Frequent Post-Fire Erosion Responses in the Campania Region (Southern Italy)
by Giuseppe Esposito, Rocco Masi, Stefano Alfano, Gaetano Giannatiempo, Rosa D’Eliseo and Filiberto Russo
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 57; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017057 - 10 Aug 2022
Viewed by 675
Abstract
Impacts of wildfires on mountainous landscapes include modifications to hydraulic and geotechnical properties of soils [...] Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
2 pages, 169 KiB  
Abstract
Modelling the Effects of Fuel Management Strategies on Fire Risk in a Mediterranean Coastal Area: The Case Study of Porto Conte Regional Natural Park (Italy)
by Carla Scarpa, Massimo d’Angelo, Michele Salis, Liliana Del Giudice, Andrea Ventura, Bachisio Arca, Valentina Bacciu, Marcello Casula, Pierpaolo Duce and Grazia Pellizzaro
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 58; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017058 - 10 Aug 2022
Viewed by 771
Abstract
Fires represent a threat to several Mediterranean ecosystems [...] Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
1 pages, 182 KiB  
Abstract
A UAV-Based Ignition Detection in Prescribed Fires Using Deep Learning
by Francisco Marques, Lucas Herranz, Nastaran Ghalati, Inês Oliveira and Jose Barata
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 59; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017059 - 10 Aug 2022
Viewed by 698
Abstract
Forest wildfires have been an aggravating disaster during the past decades due to the rise of global temperatures. Forest management operations like prescribed fires are paramount for preserving these environments, although they present intrinsic risks. The FoCoR project aims to exploit UAVs with [...] Read more.
Forest wildfires have been an aggravating disaster during the past decades due to the rise of global temperatures. Forest management operations like prescribed fires are paramount for preserving these environments, although they present intrinsic risks. The FoCoR project aims to exploit UAVs with multispectral cameras to help manage prescribed fires by applying real-time detection and segmentation of ignitions. This paper proposes and details a basic supervised Deep Learning model capable of accurately detecting and segmenting prescribed fires. The model is based on the Mask R-CNN framework and is optimized with the best f1-score of approximately 70% which was considered a good starting point for further development. The used image dataset, consisting of more than 2500 polygonal labeled aerial RGB images acquired during prescribed fires will also be made publicly available for training more models in the future. Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
2 pages, 188 KiB  
Abstract
PROPAGATOR, a Cellular Automata Model for Fast Wildfire Simulations: Latest Improvements and Future Perspectives
by Francesco Baghino, Andrea Trucchia, Mirko D’Andrea and Paolo Fiorucci
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 60; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017060 - 10 Aug 2022
Viewed by 1087
Abstract
The development of exhaustive wildfire management strategies is a priority, especially in Mediterranean countries where fire-prone conditions are widespread [...] Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
1 pages, 166 KiB  
Abstract
Integrating Field and Satellite Data for Improved Estimation of Fuel Consumption and Carbon Emissions in Siberia
by Elena Kukavskaya, Ludmila Buryak, Evgeny Shvetsov, Sergey Zhila and Alexey Panov
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 61; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017061 - 10 Aug 2022
Viewed by 703
Abstract
Wildfires are one of the most important disturbance factors in Siberia, covering up to 30 Mha annually. Carbon emissions vary greatly depending on the ecosystem type and fire severity. The fuel load and structure in different ecosystems are fundamental drivers of fire behavior [...] Read more.
Wildfires are one of the most important disturbance factors in Siberia, covering up to 30 Mha annually. Carbon emissions vary greatly depending on the ecosystem type and fire severity. The fuel load and structure in different ecosystems are fundamental drivers of fire behavior and are of high importance to accurately estimate wildland fire emissions and their contribution to the regional and global carbon balance. We developed fuel load maps for the Krasnoyarsk region in central Siberia by integrating field and satellite data with respect to the forest-growing conditions and the disturbance of the territory via anthropogenic and natural factors (e.g., fires, logging, and insects). We found a drastic increase in fuel loads for some Siberian regions, with most disturbed by logging over the last two decades. This resulted in an increase in fire hazards and severity, as well as a higher amount of fuel consumed and of carbon emitted to the atmosphere. Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
2 pages, 168 KiB  
Abstract
Mapping Burned Areas from Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 Data
by Antonio Pepe, Matteo Sali, Mirco Boschetti and Daniela Stroppiana
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 62; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017062 - 10 Aug 2022
Viewed by 678
Abstract
Fires devastated Europe during the summer of 2021, with hundreds of events burning across the Mediterranean, causing unprecedented damage to people, properties, and ecosystems [...] Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
1 pages, 169 KiB  
Abstract
Experiences of “Safe Village” and “Safe People” Programs to Enhance Wildfire Risk Reduction and Preparedness in Portugal: Implications for Policy
by Fantina Tedim, Diogo Miguel Pinto, Fernando Correia and Vittorio Leone
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 63; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017063 - 11 Aug 2022
Viewed by 893
Abstract
In 2017, Portugal lived through its most infamous extreme wildfire season with 117 fatalities, hundreds of injured people, 3588 destroyed structures, an official cost of 1456 million euros, and 539,920 ha of burned area. Among the legislative and institutional changes prompted by the [...] Read more.
In 2017, Portugal lived through its most infamous extreme wildfire season with 117 fatalities, hundreds of injured people, 3588 destroyed structures, an official cost of 1456 million euros, and 539,920 ha of burned area. Among the legislative and institutional changes prompted by the 2017 events, the “Safe Village” and the “Safe People” programs were established in 2018 (Council of Ministers Resolution no. 157-A/2017) with the purpose of: (i) implementing structural measures to protect people, goods, and buildings in the wildland–urban interface and (ii) developing awareness-raising actions on the prevention of risk behavior and self-protection measures aimed at specific audiences. There is interest in understanding how this program has been implemented, in identifying the strengths and barriers to its implementation, and in evaluating how this program is changing attitudes and behaviors of homeowners in wildfire risk reduction and preparedness as well as in coping with a wildfire. An online survey was sent, between November 2021 and June 2022, to the 139 municipalities that implemented the programs. The response rate was 81% (112 municipalities). To understand the involvement of citizens in this program and its efficacy, we surveyed 51 homeowners in 5 villages in the north and center of Portugal. Our results highlight distinctive local and contrasting dynamics of the programs, related with the interest of local authorities on their implementation and maintenance, and in citizens’ involvement. Recognizing the importance in reducing wildfire risk and improving the citizens’ safety, recommendations on the legal context, the characteristics of the programs, and implementation and maintenance procedures are proposed. They are aimed at enhancing the efficacy in different geographical contexts, namely, proposing initiatives that are much beyond the scope of the “Safe Village” and “Safe People” programs. Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
1 pages, 166 KiB  
Abstract
Strategic Risk Management for Fire Suppression Aircraft
by Crystal Stonesifer, David Calkin and Christopher O’Connor
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 64; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017064 - 11 Aug 2022
Viewed by 753
Abstract
Aircraft provide critically important capacity for a wide range of missions for wildland firefighters, but their use brings inherent risks. Aviation-related fatalities account for 30% of federal and contractor firefighter deaths in the United States over the last ten years. Aviators are generally [...] Read more.
Aircraft provide critically important capacity for a wide range of missions for wildland firefighters, but their use brings inherent risks. Aviation-related fatalities account for 30% of federal and contractor firefighter deaths in the United States over the last ten years. Aviators are generally well-versed in tactical risk management tools and practices intended to guide individuals through go/no-go decision-making processes. For example, it is common practice for aviators to ask, “Is this flight necessary?” before every mission. The necessity of a flight in accomplishing a singular objective, such as extinguishing a spot fire on a large wildfire, may be clear; however, it may be unnecessary if the incident objective is to contain the wildfire at pre-identified locations far from the active spot. Due to many factors, including the distributed nature of the Incident Command System, aviators may be unaware of strategic objectives guiding the management of a large wildfire, and unnecessary risk may come from misalignment of tactical and strategic objectives. We introduce the Aviation Use Summary (AUS), a decision-support framework which guides managers through a strategic risk management process for aviation use on large wildfires or broader areas of interest. This tool provides a comprehensive summary of the location and timing of aircraft assignments and retardant and water delivery through maps, graphs, and tables. Since 2017, customized AUS products have been utilized by strategic incident managers on over 70 large wildfires or regions. We present an overview of the AUS, describe its use within risk management assistance efforts in the US Forest Service, and explore potential future paths for this work, including automation and incorporation of additional novel analytics. Through this, we aim to shift the question to ask, “Why is this flight necessary?” to increase safe and efficient use of limited resources by minimizing unnecessary risk. Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
1 pages, 179 KiB  
Abstract
MED-Star Project—Analysis of Participatory Pathways for Assessing the Citizens’ Perception of Fire Risk in Pilot Municipalities
by Silvia Calvani, Cristiano Foderi, Fabio Salbitano and Enrico Marchi
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 65; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017065 - 11 Aug 2022
Viewed by 695
Abstract
Wildfires are mainly a man-induced phenomenon, and only 2% are caused by lightning, as seen in the CUFAA (Comando Unità per la tutela Forestale, Ambientale e Agroalimentare) report 2020 [...] Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
1 pages, 196 KiB  
Abstract
Combining Wildfire Behaviour Simulations and Connectivity Metrics to Support Wildfire Management
by Bruno A. Aparício, José M. C. Pereira, Francisco C. Santos, Chiara Bruni and Ana C. L. Sá
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 66; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017066 - 11 Aug 2022
Viewed by 699
Abstract
The recent extreme wildfire seasons have overwhelmed the fire-suppression capabilities of national authorities, evidencing the need for a paradigm shift in wildfire management. Wildfire spread and behaviour simulations provide relevant information for the assessment of fire hazards and for guiding decision makers in [...] Read more.
The recent extreme wildfire seasons have overwhelmed the fire-suppression capabilities of national authorities, evidencing the need for a paradigm shift in wildfire management. Wildfire spread and behaviour simulations provide relevant information for the assessment of fire hazards and for guiding decision makers in implementing preventive fuel-reduction strategies. In this study, we introduce and combined a new graph-based connectivity index with fire-line intensity to quantify the influence of spatial arrangement of fuels on wildfire hazards. The analysis uses a new connectivity index complemented by well-established graph-based metrics, namely the centrality and size of the largest component. The developed approach was applied to Serra de Monchique, in Southwestern Portugal. Specifically, we used the connectivity metrics to: (i) quantify the effect of fire weather scenarios on fire hazard; and (ii) evaluate the potential effectiveness of local fuel-break networks in decreasing fuel connectivity. Our results show that the combination of new connectivity index and graph-based metrics allow the location of high wildfire and fuel connectivity areas (i.e., fire hubs); and anticipate the locations where wildfire suppression may be compromised under specific fire–weather conditions. We identified the most important fuel-break segments in the north and west of Serra Monchique, particularly in areas covered by eucalyptus plantations and oak woodlands. These highlighted fuel-break segments are the same regardless of the wind directions and fire–weather scenarios considered. We further show that fuel connectivity is sensitive to the planned fuel-reduction strategy and that active fuel management may decrease landscape connectivity during extreme weather conditions to levels of fire intensity similar to those of non-extreme fire–weather scenarios without management. We anticipate that these network metrics will be helpful to both land planners and wildfire researchers seeking to assess different fuel-reduction strategies in fire-prone regions. Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
2 pages, 200 KiB  
Abstract
Assessing the Benefits of a National Fuel Break Network to Reduce Wildfire Exposure in Portugal
by Bruno A. Aparício, Fermín Alcasena, Alan Ager, Woodam Chung, José M. C. Pereira and Ana C. L. Sá
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 67; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017067 - 11 Aug 2022
Viewed by 792
Abstract
The impact of rural fires in the Mediterranean Basin are rapidly increasing as extreme fire seasons become the new norm. Following the catastrophic 2017 fire season in Portugal, a national-scale fuel break network (FBN) was designed by the Rural Fire Management Agency (AGIF), [...] Read more.
The impact of rural fires in the Mediterranean Basin are rapidly increasing as extreme fire seasons become the new norm. Following the catastrophic 2017 fire season in Portugal, a national-scale fuel break network (FBN) was designed by the Rural Fire Management Agency (AGIF), and implementation of fuel treatments were initiated alongside it. The FBN used strategically placed fuel breaks on ridgetops and other locations where suppression efficiency was maximized. To date, a large majority of the FBN has not been built, and doubts still remain about regional priority. In this study, we used Monte Carlo methods and mechanistic wildfire spread modelling to simulate 10,000 plausible fire seasons in Portugal. The modelling system was calibrated to local fuels and weather at monthly time steps. We then assessed how the proposed fuel break network: (a) intersects simulated fires; (b) protects residential buildings and designated protected areas; and (c) is effective for suppressing large fires. From these outputs we were able to compare priorities as determined from the simulation system to the FBN implementation plan by AGIF. Our results show that the FBN has the potential to provide fire suppression anchor points for 30% of the simulated large fires, to reduce exposure to communities and families, and to reduce the total area burned in the protected areas both by up to 15%. However, the results also reveal that in many cases, the FBN intersects large fires after they have grown to over 500 ha, suggesting that in particular areas the fuel break network should be densified with additional fuel treatments. We contrast the priorities as assessed from the current AGIF implementation versus those derived from the wildfire simulation system. Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
1 pages, 208 KiB  
Abstract
A Review of Recent Climate Evolution, Projected Climate Change and Its Impacts on Future Fire Regime and Behavior in the Italy-France Maritime Cooperation Area (Sardinia, Corsica, Tuscany, Liguria and Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur)
by Valentina Bacciu, Valentina Mereu, Costantino Sirca, Josè Maria Costa Saura, Claudio Ribotta and Donatella Spano
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 68; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017068 - 11 Aug 2022
Viewed by 826
Abstract
The Mediterranean region is considered one of the “hot spots” of climate change, recording a warming 20% greater than the global average, with a substantial reduction in precipitations [...] Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
1 pages, 183 KiB  
Abstract
Predicting the Arrival of the Unpredictable: An Approach for Foreseeing the Transition to Chaos in Wildfire Propagation
by Vera Egorova and Gianni Pagnini
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 69; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017069 - 11 Aug 2022
Viewed by 563
Abstract
Inspired by the success of weather forecasts in recent years, we wonder if in the future we can follow the same successful path for improving the prediction of wildfire propagation. Hence, in analogy with this story, we start this research program from the [...] Read more.
Inspired by the success of weather forecasts in recent years, we wonder if in the future we can follow the same successful path for improving the prediction of wildfire propagation. Hence, in analogy with this story, we start this research program from the very beginning of the modern theory of the predictability of weather, namely by uncovering the chaotic nature of wildfires through the derivation of a low-dimensional model in the same spirit as the derivation of the Lorenz chaotic system. Specific applications of chaos theory to the predictability of the propagation of wildfires are very seldom. Here, a Lorenz-type chaotic system for wildfire propagation is derived. This chaotic system with three degrees of freedom (temperature, fuel concentration, and rate of spread) follows from a prototypical reaction-diffusion equation of the temperature field coupled with an equation of the fuel concentration and from a Langevin-like equation for the rate of spread. Then, the motion of the fire-front resembles Brownian-like motion, where the Gaussian noise is replaced by the combined effect of the temperature and of the fuel concentration. We show that it is possible to predict the “environmental” changes that generate a transition to chaos in a system that is initially predictable in spite of uncertainties in its initial state. Thanks to the physical meaning of the involved parameters, this approach can lead to the prediction of changes, e.g., variations in the mean wind or in the heat of the reaction, which turn a predictable propagation of wildfires into an unpredictable one. By studying the growth of the separation of the resulting fire-line positions, a quantitative ranking-of-risk can be established in view of the changes that may take place in the system; this allows for setting out an alternative method for real-time risk assessment. Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
1 pages, 197 KiB  
Abstract
Advancing New Methods for Creating Fire-Resilient Communities in Mediterranean Areas
by Fermín Alcasena, Marcos Rodrigues, Pere Gelabert and Cristina Vega-García
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 70; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017070 - 15 Aug 2022
Viewed by 678
Abstract
As large fires threaten human assets in Mediterranean areas, creating fire-adapted communities became a core long-term goal to cope with extreme wildfires. In addition to early detection and risk-monitoring tools, preemptive efforts are essential to reduce wildfire spread, prevent catastrophic losses, and help [...] Read more.
As large fires threaten human assets in Mediterranean areas, creating fire-adapted communities became a core long-term goal to cope with extreme wildfires. In addition to early detection and risk-monitoring tools, preemptive efforts are essential to reduce wildfire spread, prevent catastrophic losses, and help minimize casualties. However, despite extensive scientific development to predict potential fire impacts, the poor risk communication with landscape and urban planners is often a barrier to translating primary outcomes into operational projects. Comprehensive solutions for creating fire-adapted communities indeed require not only fuel reduction treatments but also civil protection and fire suppression considerations to facilitate a safe and effective response. In this study, we assembled modeled fire footprints and fire intensity grids with asset locations to generate a set of risk mitigation maps in a large fire-prone Mediterranean area. Previous modeling works showed strong capabilities for predicting future catastrophic fires, as well as containment probabilities, but the integration of landscape-scale management efforts, community protection plans, and strategic fire suppression opportunities is still incipient. First, we used observed ignitions and past fire perimeters to model initial attack success and containment probability. We then calibrated and implemented a fire modeling approach to replicate thousands of years or iterations assuming wildfire season extreme weather conditions. Finally, the results were merged and summarized to provide a set of maps to inform large-scale ongoing risk reduction programs. We present new ideas and geospatial data processing techniques that may facilitate the assimilation of modeled predictions within fire management plans to adapt faster to changing fire regimes. The methods developed in this study could be replicated in southern European Union countries and other wildland–urban interface areas elsewhere. Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
1 pages, 160 KiB  
Abstract
NASA’s New Wildland Fire Earth Observation Science & Applications Programmatic Developments
by Vincent G. Ambrosia, David Green, Michael Falkowski, Barry Lefer, Michael Seablom, Parimal Kopardekar and Laurie A. Grindle
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 71; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017071 - 15 Aug 2022
Viewed by 816
Abstract
In 2021, the U.S. National Aeronautics & Space Administration (NASA) initiated new programmatic elements within the Science Mission Directorate (SMD) and the Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) focused on supporting wildland fire science and applications improvements, employing the vast array of NASA scientific [...] Read more.
In 2021, the U.S. National Aeronautics & Space Administration (NASA) initiated new programmatic elements within the Science Mission Directorate (SMD) and the Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) focused on supporting wildland fire science and applications improvements, employing the vast array of NASA scientific knowledge, airborne and space-borne Earth Observations (EO) capabilities, technology development (sensor systems, etc.), and large framework modeling efforts. Within the Science Mission Directorate, the NASA Earth Science Division (ESD) will focus on improving our understanding of wildland fire through EO tools and applying rigorous-tested modeling and results of that research into operational use. The ESD Wildfire strategy is to invest in new technology and to better integrate NASA’s satellite, airborne, and ground-based observations with wildfire models to provide the wildfire stakeholders with the information they need to make informed decisions about the pre-, active-, and post-fire conditions. The Applied Science Program has restarted the Wildland Fire Applications Program with a focus on engaging wildland fire management and the fire science community in transitioning EO science efforts into routine use by land management entities at the local, state, national and international level. The NASA Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate will focus on arenas where their aeronautics science and engineering outcomes can benefit the fire management community as well, specifically in the innovative development of Uncrewed Aircraft systems, congested mixed-use platform airspace management issues, new platform configurations supporting wildland fire missions, and other aeronautics-related science/engineering capabilities which may benefit the fire management community. In total, these developments represent a major thrust forward, supporting the goals of utilizing NASA science to benefit humankind. This presentation will highlight the various wildland fire science focus areas identified through collaborations with the wildland fire science and management community and highlight the plans of this new NASA focus area. Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
1 pages, 167 KiB  
Abstract
Enhancement of the Web-Based Wildfire Simulator for Wind Intensity Model and Crown Fire Modeling
by Fabrizio Pedes, Bachisio Arca, Pierpaolo Duce, Michele Salis, Andrea Ventura and Marcello Casula
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 72; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017072 - 15 Aug 2022
Viewed by 700
Abstract
This presentation will provide an overview of some of the recent improvements of the Sardinian Web-based Wildfire Simulator (WWS), a wildfire simulator developed to provide real-time support for wildfire management. We added a midflame wind velocity model integrated within the mass-consistent downscaling wind [...] Read more.
This presentation will provide an overview of some of the recent improvements of the Sardinian Web-based Wildfire Simulator (WWS), a wildfire simulator developed to provide real-time support for wildfire management. We added a midflame wind velocity model integrated within the mass-consistent downscaling wind field module to provide high-resolution wind field maps affected by the vegetation characteristics. This is a generalization of the commonly used wind adjustment factor calculation, suitable for an improved parametrization of the wind calibration framework. The wind adjustment factor adjusts 10 m wind velocity to midflame wind, which affects the surface fire. The model includes a different algorithm for wind above surface fuel that is unsheltered by overstory and wind that is sheltered by forest canopy. In addition, a crown fire spread model was integrated within WWS to predict the onset of crowning, the type of crown fire (i.e., passive or active), and the associated rate of spread and fireline intensity. Crown fires are carried through the crowns of living forests and they are even less common than the surface fire; their impact is severe in terms of fire behavior and fire attack opportunities. We present the preliminary results of a validation of the new codes on a set of actual wildfires that recently occurred in the island of Sardinia, Italy. Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
2 pages, 169 KiB  
Abstract
Modelling Potential Control Locations: Development and Adoption of Data-Driven Analytics to Support Strategic and Tactical Wildfire Containment Decisions
by Christopher D. O’Connor, Jessica R. Haas, Benjamin M. Gannon, Christopher J. Dunn, Matthew P. Thompson and David E. Calkin
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 73; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017073 - 15 Aug 2022
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 918
Abstract
Wildfire management has long been driven by a cadre of experienced professionals that rely heavily on their personal experience and judgement to determine the best available holding features to contain actively growing wildfires [...] Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
1 pages, 170 KiB  
Abstract
Evaluating Wildfire Simulators Based on the 2021 Large Fires Occurring in Sardinia
by Bachisio Arca, Fabrizio Pedes, Michele Salis, Grazia Pellizzaro, Pierpaolo Duce, Andrea Ventura, Annalisa Canu, Roghayeh Jahdi, Liliana Del Giudice, Carla Scarpa, Valentina Bacciu and Marcello Casula
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 74; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017074 - 15 Aug 2022
Viewed by 783
Abstract
Wildfire simulators represent a fundamental tool for the planning of wildfire prevention operations, the real-time prediction of fire propagation and thus the adoption of appropriate firefighting strategies. In this paper, we provide an example of the application of the Web-based Wildfire Simulator (WWS) [...] Read more.
Wildfire simulators represent a fundamental tool for the planning of wildfire prevention operations, the real-time prediction of fire propagation and thus the adoption of appropriate firefighting strategies. In this paper, we provide an example of the application of the Web-based Wildfire Simulator (WWS) on fires that occurred during the 2021 fire season in Sardinia (Italy), and in particular on the Montiferru fire, a large fire that occurred in the central-western area of the island and mainly driven by the wind. The simulator used high-resolution data provided by the WRF meteorological model initialized with both GFS forecasts and ERA5-ECMWF reanalysis. Vegetation characteristics and associated fuel pattern maps were derived from the analysis of recent Sentinel2 satellite data. Fuel moisture data were estimated using weather data predicted by WRF. The evaluation of the model was carried out using the data collected in field and related to the actual fire propagation observed during the various time steps, and to the related firefighting interventions. In addition, the meteorological data recorded by a few meteorological stations located within the simulation domain and the data on fire severity collected in field were analyzed. The model was able to predict the temporal development of fire events with a good accuracy, considering the mean rate of spread and the rate of spread of the different wildfire sectors. Most of the accuracy can be explained by the goodness of the weather forecasts obtained through the use of GFS forecasts and of the fuel model map. The model was able to accurately predict the propagation of the main fire front, while several deviations from the real perimeter were observed with regard to the fire flanks propagation. In conclusion, wildfire simulators represent a useful tool for all phases of fire prevention, for their operational use in real-time, and therefore to provide information for the firefighting. Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
1 pages, 181 KiB  
Abstract
Probability Density Function of a Random Area and Its Application to Wildfires
by Alvaro Crespo-Santiago, Andrea Trucchia, Paolo Fiorucci and Gianni Pagnini
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 75; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017075 - 15 Aug 2022
Viewed by 676
Abstract
We show that the probability density function (PDF) of a burned area enclosed by a random fire perimeter is driven by the PDF of the bounding-box sides. In particular, the random value of the area emerges to be proportional to the random position [...] Read more.
We show that the probability density function (PDF) of a burned area enclosed by a random fire perimeter is driven by the PDF of the bounding-box sides. In particular, the random value of the area emerges to be proportional to the random position of the bounding-box sides times an averaged coefficient dependent on the geometry of the burned area. Therefore, the two PDFs are functionally equal. This means that the PDF of the burned area is driven and functionally equal to the PDF of the position of the head of the fire. The displacement of the head of the fire is given by the rate of spread (ROS); thus, the PDF of the burned area is driven and equal to the PDF of the ROS. This result holds in general whenever a fire exhibits an advancement in a main direction. The main theoretical result has been tested by different families of stochastic processes and also by using the operational fire simulator PROPAGATOR, which is based on a cellular automata approach. By using PROPAGATOR, the criteria for the validity of the derived result in realistic cases has been established by analyzing different configurations of orography and wind. This study can be understood as a start for the development of a theory of stochastic dynamics of wildfire propagation with the aim, for example, to provide physically grounded initial perturbations of wildfire perimeters for ensemble forecasting. Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
1 pages, 168 KiB  
Abstract
A Mass Consistent Approach to Improve Wind Downscaling for Real Time Fire Spread Simulations
by Marcello Casula, Fabrizio Pedes, Andrea Ventura, Valentina Bacciu, Grazia Pellizzaro, Liliana Del Giudice, Carla Scarpa, Annalisa Canu, Michele Salis, Pierpaolo Duce and Bachisio Arca
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 76; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017076 - 15 Aug 2022
Viewed by 669
Abstract
Fire propagation is mainly influenced by three elements: slope of the terrain, vegetation, and wind [...] Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
2 pages, 236 KiB  
Abstract
Typical Weather Conditions of Large Wildfires in Portugal (1980–2018)
by Ilda Novo, Álvaro Silva, Daniela Alves, João Ferreira, João Rio, Luís Reis, Manuel Mendes, Miguel Carmo, Pedro Silva and Xavier Viegas
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 77; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017077 - 15 Aug 2022
Viewed by 764
Abstract
Over the last few decades, Extreme Wildfire Events (EWE) have been reported, especially in the Mediterranean basin [...] Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
2 pages, 167 KiB  
Abstract
Characterization of the Canopy in Mediterranean Forest Stands by Terrestrial Laser Scanning
by Roberto Ferrara, Andrea Ventura, Bachisio Arca, Michele Salis, Angelo Arca, Pierpaolo Masia, Stefano Arrizza, Pierpaolo Duce and Grazia Pellizzaro
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 78; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017078 - 15 Aug 2022
Viewed by 658
Abstract
The definition of the structural parameters of forest vegetation and trees provides useful information for different environmental applications [...] Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
2 pages, 221 KiB  
Abstract
Evaluating the Observed Variability in Temperature, Relative Humidity and Wind Speed in a Region with Complex Terrain
by João Rio, Manuel Lopes, Pedro Silva and Ilda Novo
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 79; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017079 - 15 Aug 2022
Viewed by 653
Abstract
Wildfires in mountainous terrain can be extremely challenging to address [...] Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
2 pages, 870 KiB  
Abstract
Pyrogeography: An Alternative Zonation for Europe
by Luiz Felipe Galizia, Renaud Barbero, Marcos Rodrigues and Thomas Curt
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 80; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017080 - 16 Aug 2022
Viewed by 883
Abstract
Studies dealing with wildland fire at global or continental scales normally use coarse-resolution spatial units, within which fire-regime components are aggregated for statistical purposes [...] Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
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2 pages, 186 KiB  
Abstract
Application of a Participatory Process for the Selection of Adaptation Actions in the Context of Rural and Forest Fires: Preliminary Results from the Experience Conducted within the Italy–France Maritime MED-Star Project
by Valentina Bacciu, Serena Marras, Valentina Mereu, Matteo Funaro, Silvia Mongili, Sergio Cossu, Giampaolo Meloni, Francesca Masu, Virginia Cristina Pira and Donatella Spano
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 81; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017081 - 16 Aug 2022
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 645
Abstract
Over the next few decades, a generalized increase in fire danger and burned area is expected over Southern Europe [...] Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
1 pages, 176 KiB  
Abstract
Quantifying Post-Fire Sediment Erosion in the Montiferru Area (Sardinia, Italy): Preliminary Results
by Annalisa Canu, Andrea Ventura, Bachisio Arca, Grazia Pellizzaro, Valentina Bacciu, Angelo Arca, Pierpaolo Masia, Roberto Ferrara, Leonarda Fadda, Stefano Arrizza, Pierpaolo Zara, Pierpaolo Duce and Michele Salis
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 82; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017082 - 16 Aug 2022
Viewed by 692
Abstract
A number of works are highlighting the increasing size and severity of large wildfires in the Mediterranean Basin, with cascading effects on post-fire erosion. Direct measurements of post-fire soil erosion, particularly in remote and complex terrain, are time-consuming and expensive and are further [...] Read more.
A number of works are highlighting the increasing size and severity of large wildfires in the Mediterranean Basin, with cascading effects on post-fire erosion. Direct measurements of post-fire soil erosion, particularly in remote and complex terrain, are time-consuming and expensive and are further challenged by the risk of sudden and intense rainstorms following wildfires at the end of the fire season. In this work, we will present the preliminary results of the post-fire erosion measurements carried out in the Montiferru area (Sardinia, Italy), which was affected by a 13,000 ha wildfire at the end of July 2021. Six sediment fence sites were established a few weeks after the wildfire and prior to rain events in the study area. The fences allowed us to monitor post-fire sediment erosion on two hillslopes, the first mainly characterized by Quercus ilex and Erica arborea (plots 1–3), the second by Arbutus unedo and Quercus ilex (plots 4–6). Each sediment fence, constructed of geotextile silt fence fabric, covered an area of 30 m2 (10 m × 3 m), and was installed on uniform slopes. For both hillslopes, fences were installed adjacent to one another across the tilted terrain. The results obtained during the first months of monitoring will be discussed while considering soil and rainfall characteristics in the study area, slope, and pre- and post-fire vegetation. Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
1 pages, 155 KiB  
Abstract
Water-Based Shields Deployment on Terrain during Wildfire Spread: A Modelling Approach Using Distributed Information through Autonomous Agents
by Fabio Alaimo Ponziani
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 83; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017083 - 16 Aug 2022
Viewed by 592
Abstract
Wildfire spread is of concern whenever the physical dimension of the involved area makes a scale jump due to several conditions, such as the interplay of nature and shape of the combustible terrain involved, the atmospheric conditions and the turbulence generated, the road [...] Read more.
Wildfire spread is of concern whenever the physical dimension of the involved area makes a scale jump due to several conditions, such as the interplay of nature and shape of the combustible terrain involved, the atmospheric conditions and the turbulence generated, the road paths that can be followed by rescuers in tackling the fire and by people fleeing away. To help manage such a critical situation and to assist action planning in rescue operations and territorial recognition, a modelling approach based on autonomous agents can be an added value if the essential elements of the problem can be captured and, then, solutions can be presented. This study deals with modelling some actions of active protection during wildfire spread using distributed information through autonomous agents by means of the NetLogo platform. This is a tool where the elements of the problem at hand are translated into different entities—the agents—that may interact in different ways, thus modelling physical, logical or cognitive behaviours to make some examples. There are three types of NetLogo agents: patches, turtles and links; they live in the virtual world where some of the attributes of the agents can be planned in advance, and the actions expressing the interactions among them may then emerge through the context, by reaction or adaptation. A terrain is modelled considering some typical attributes expressing the nature of the combustible material present and its humidity, the free spaces between combustible areas, the variation in altitude, slopes and solar exposition. The atmospheric conditions are modelled considering wind speed and direction. The fire spread is modelled by an advancement of a representative flame front depending on terrain and wind. The active protection is modelled by deploying water-based shields through different patterns to see their impact and ability to tackle the fire’s advancement. Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
1 pages, 166 KiB  
Abstract
What Is Normal and Why Is It New? Exploring How, Where, and Why Fire Regimes Are Changing through the Lens of California
by Alexandra D. Syphard
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 84; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017084 - 16 Aug 2022
Viewed by 667
Abstract
Catastrophic effects of wildfires on human lives and assets have increased the prominence of wildfire in the media and across the scientific community, and the phrase “the new normal” is now widely used to describe the growing magnitude of these impacts. Although the [...] Read more.
Catastrophic effects of wildfires on human lives and assets have increased the prominence of wildfire in the media and across the scientific community, and the phrase “the new normal” is now widely used to describe the growing magnitude of these impacts. Although the increase in wildfire impacts on humans is occurring globally, the nature of changes to natural fire regimes and the drivers of altered fire regimes are complex and geographically variable. In California, fire return intervals have been altered in nearly opposite directions in different parts of the state, for different reasons. This complexity contributes to widespread misconceptions about how and why fire regimes are changing, and which management decisions are most appropriate given the context. With its diversity in ecosystems and patterns of human development, California encompasses the global issue of sorting out how and why fires are changing and what their corresponding human and ecological consequences are. For example, fire-climate relationships, impacts of vegetation management, and human land use effects vary across the state. As a result of this variation, climate change and forest stand conditions will likely be top contributors to future large fire activity and severity in the northern part of state. In southern California, however, human ignitions, invasive species, and fire weather are the most important drivers. A better understanding of this geographical variability in both the normal and the new normal of wildfire is critical for matching appropriate solutions to the problems. Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
1 pages, 183 KiB  
Abstract
The Effect of Broadleaf-Tree Greenup on Springtime Wildfire Occurrence in Boreal Canada
by Marc-André Parisien, Quinn E. Barber, Mike D. Flannigan and Piyush Jain
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 85; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017085 - 17 Aug 2022
Viewed by 902
Abstract
The broadleaf tree species of the boreal biome of Canada have low flammability compared to conifers, which is in large part due to the high moisture content of their foliage. However, there is a period following snowmelt and prior to leaf budding (i.e., [...] Read more.
The broadleaf tree species of the boreal biome of Canada have low flammability compared to conifers, which is in large part due to the high moisture content of their foliage. However, there is a period following snowmelt and prior to leaf budding (i.e., greenup), termed the ‘spring window’ by fire managers, when these forests are more conducive to fire ignition and spread. The goal of this study was to evaluate the length and variability of the spring window from year to year across ecological regions of boreal Canada and to determine whether it is associated with an increased number of human-caused wildfires. We used remotely sensed descriptions of snow cover and greenup to describe the annual spring window for nine ecological regions from 2001 to 2018. Then, we statistically compared the timing of the windows and associated the temporal patterns of fire-conducive weather to human-caused wildfire occurrence. The results show a positive association between the number of human-caused wildfires and the timing of the spring window in only two of the eight regions (the Boreal Plain and Taiga Plain, both in western Canada); however, these are two of the most fire-active areas in the country. A specific set of factors must coincide for regional fire regimes to exhibit a fire-prone spring window: (i) a relatively high (>20%) proportion of broadleaf forest cover, (ii) a high load of human ignitions (because lighting is rare in the spring), and (ii) frequent windy and dry weather conditions. Although the fire regimes that are active in the springtime are mostly confined to parts of western Canada at present, other areas of boreal Canada may see an increase in spring wildfires if projected climatic changes are borne out and if a growing number of people settle into boreal wildlands. Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
2 pages, 205 KiB  
Abstract
Using the Rothermel Package in R to Test Standard and Custom Fuel Models against Global Fire Behavior Data
by Davide Ascoli, Jose Moris, Ângelo Sil and Paulo Fernandes
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 86; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017086 - 17 Aug 2022
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 844
Abstract
Rothermel-based decision support systems are widespread for fire behavior prediction and wildfire risk analysis [...] Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
2 pages, 171 KiB  
Abstract
Fire Behavior Pathways under Climate Change and Management Scenarios
by Lauma Elza Miezīte, Aitor Ameztegui and Marcos Rodrigues
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 87; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017087 - 17 Aug 2022
Viewed by 722
Abstract
Mediterranean forests are strongly influenced by forest fires; however, global change is threatening the provision of ecosystem services by altering forest dynamics [...] Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
2 pages, 185 KiB  
Abstract
Integrated Platform for Wildfire Prevention and Management: The S2IGI Project
by Marcello Casula, Bachisio Arca, Giovanni Laneve, Enrico Cadau, Raffaele Bua, Fabrizio Pedes, Michele Salis, Pietro Andronico, Andrea Ventura, Franco Casula and Maurizio Cao
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 88; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017088 - 18 Aug 2022
Viewed by 888
Abstract
The purpose of the S2IGI (Sistema Satellitare Integrato Gestione Incendi) project is to support the different phases of wildland fire prevention and management by a set of toolboxes, aiming to provide a short- and medium-term forecast of wildfire danger, an early detection of [...] Read more.
The purpose of the S2IGI (Sistema Satellitare Integrato Gestione Incendi) project is to support the different phases of wildland fire prevention and management by a set of toolboxes, aiming to provide a short- and medium-term forecast of wildfire danger, an early detection of wildland fires, real-time forecasting of wildland fire propagation, and an assessment of fire damages; all the services are based on the integration of: Earth observation (EO) advanced technologies of remote sensing; high-resolution weather numerical models; and a decision support system platform. The project can support the wildland fire management activities along the following three phases: (1) forecast and prevention, (2) monitoring, detection and suppression, and (3) damage assessment and vegetation recovery. One of the main products of the project is an integrated system for the early detection of ignitions, based on an improved version of the SFIDE algorithm, derived from the analysis of the MSG SEVIRI sensor data. The hot-spots provided by the SFIDE algorithm are automatically processed by a wildfire simulator in order to predict a probabilistic wildfire spread map, together with some themes related to the wildfire intensity. The modeling chain can be used for real-time or off-line applications. Again, the project provided a spatially consistent estimation of the wildfire risk and a map of burned areas updated on a weekly basis. The set of products is also completed by the generation of maps of areas suitable for prescribed fire interventions and, regarding the post-fire applications, by maps of the soil erosion risk. Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
2 pages, 186 KiB  
Abstract
Modelling the Behavior and Extent of Mid-Holocene Lightning-Caused Fires in Portugal
by Paulo Fernandes, Nuno Guiomar and David A. Davim
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 89; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017089 - 18 Aug 2022
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 809
Abstract
Fires of natural origin are usually a very small fraction of the total number of fires in southern Europe, and as such, they are not relevant to contemporary fire regimes and policies, even if they occasionally develop into large-scale conflagrations. However, lighting-caused fires [...] Read more.
Fires of natural origin are usually a very small fraction of the total number of fires in southern Europe, and as such, they are not relevant to contemporary fire regimes and policies, even if they occasionally develop into large-scale conflagrations. However, lighting-caused fires might have been a relevant landscape-level disturbance prior to the anthropogenic control exerted through land use and land cover, fire use, and wildfire suppression. Our goal was to simulate fire behavior characteristics (rate of spread, fireline intensity) for recent (2001–2020) individual lightning fires occurring in Portugal but under a mid-Holocene landscape context, i.e., just before the human-induced Neolithic disturbances, including burning. We selected three study areas (1240–2615 km2) with distinctively high densities of lightning fires (4.4–7.0 per 100 km2 per year) and quantified deciduous broadleaved forest, evergreen broadleaved forest and shrubland cover within each area at 6 ka BP (before present) by combining mapped forest cover (from a palynological reconstruction) and potential natural vegetation series. Then, we simulated the unbounded hourly spread of each fire until its natural extinction (determined by fuel moisture) and allowing for smoldering-only periods with subsequent reactivation, using a suite of selected semi-empirical and empirical models and ERA5-Land (ECMWF, Reading, UK) reanalysis weather data for the location and duration of the event. The simulations considered uncertainty in vegetation cover and in the likelihood of fire reactivation after light rainfall. The unbounded fire size exceeded observed fire size by up to four orders of magnitude. Preliminary results for one of the study areas suggest an infrequent and mixed-severity natural fire regime affecting about 1–4% of the landscape every year. The study offers increased understanding of the past regime and ecological role of natural fire in the Mediterranean basin and can inform improved fire management policies in the region. Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
2 pages, 197 KiB  
Abstract
How Do the Residents of a Peri-Urban Metropolitan Area Perceive and Adapt to Their Surrounding Landscape; A Socio-Spatial Study of the Bushfire Risk Representation in Greater Melbourne Urban Fringes
by Ondine Le Fur, Pierre Dérioz, Marielle Jappiot and Raphaële Blanchi
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 90; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017090 - 19 Aug 2022
Viewed by 733
Abstract
When large urban agglomerations are located in wildfire prone regions, adapting to the demographic changes while limiting wildfire vulnerability of communities is a challenge for urban planners and policy-makers [...] Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
1 pages, 165 KiB  
Abstract
Near-Real-Time Burned Area Mapping Using Sentinel-2 and Ancillary Data: Italy as a Test Case
by Giuseppe Squicciarino, Elisabetta Fiori, Umberto Morra di Cella, Paolo Fiorucci and Luca Pulvirenti
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 91; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017091 - 19 Aug 2022
Viewed by 651
Abstract
An automatic near-real-time (NRT) burned area (BA) mapping approach is presented [...] Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
2 pages, 188 KiB  
Abstract
Exploring the Combination of Fire Danger Indices and Their Persistence in Predicting Favorable Conditions for Forest Fires
by Cristina Andrade and Lourdes Bugalho
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 92; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017092 - 19 Aug 2022
Viewed by 657
Abstract
Wildfires are one of the major natural hazards in various regions of the globe, such as California in the United States [1], Australia, and in the Euro-Mediterranean region [2]. They have devastating impacts not only on local economy, agroforestry [...] Read more.
Wildfires are one of the major natural hazards in various regions of the globe, such as California in the United States [1], Australia, and in the Euro-Mediterranean region [2]. They have devastating impacts not only on local economy, agroforestry systems and environment, public health but also due to the loss of human lives. Portugal has the highest density and relative burned area of all European countries and in 2017 more than 100 people have died on 17 June and 15 October; therefore, it is highly relevant to invest in its prevention. The FWI (Fire Weather Index) index has been used since the 1980s in Portugal to predict the danger of forest fire, and more recently the CHI index (Continuous Haines index) has also been used. FWI translates weather conditions at the surface that are conducive to forest fires, while CHI translates weather conditions of instability or dryness in the atmosphere in a layer close to the surface. FWI values greater than 38.2 indicate a very high to maximum wildfire danger. Regarding CHI, values equal to or greater than 10 points to a risk that, in case of an occurrence of a wildfire, it will be uncontrolled and therefore very challenging to control. The persistence of these conditions increases the danger. The purpose of this study is to investigate the spatiotemporal patterns of the combination of the FWI and CHI danger indices, among other variables related to soil conditions, such as temperature in different levels, evaporation, leaf area index among others, in Portugal and to assess possible relationships with the persistence of danger conditions and the burnt area using 2003 and 2017 as control years. Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
1 pages, 167 KiB  
Abstract
Impact of Four Large Fires on Air Quality in Sardinia (Italy)
by Grazia Pellizzaro, Valentina Bacciu, Carla Scarpa, Bachisio Arca, Michele Salis, Marcello Casula, Liliana Del Giudice, Matilde Schirru, Fabrizio Pedes and Annalisa Canu
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 93; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017093 - 19 Aug 2022
Viewed by 630
Abstract
Fires are an integral part of Mediterranean ecosystems, where they have played an ecological role for thousands of years [...] Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
1 pages, 157 KiB  
Abstract
VOCs and Wildfire Flashovers
by Rawaa Jamaladdeen, Bruno Coudour, Hui-Ying Wang and Jean-Pierre Garo
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 94; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017094 - 22 Aug 2022
Viewed by 695
Abstract
Flashover phenomena in wildfires have been reported by firefighters and have caused a number of fatalities among their ranks [...] Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
1 pages, 168 KiB  
Abstract
Spatial Estimates of Future Fire Risk Considering Climate and Fuel Management for Conservation Planning
by Erica Marshall, Sarah McColl-Gausden, Luke Collins, Lauren Bennett and Trent D. Penman
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 95; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017095 - 22 Aug 2022
Viewed by 738
Abstract
A key gap in conservation management is understanding how fire regimes may shift under climate change and how these shifts might impact biodiversity. Conserving species and communities in the future will require the strategic prioritisation of conservation actions that account for shifting fire [...] Read more.
A key gap in conservation management is understanding how fire regimes may shift under climate change and how these shifts might impact biodiversity. Conserving species and communities in the future will require the strategic prioritisation of conservation actions that account for shifting fire regimes. We used a landscape fire regime model, the Fire Regime and Operations Simulation Tool (FROST), to estimate the wildfire risk of 12 regions in Victoria, Australia. Each region is approximately 1.2 million hectares in size and collectively span a range of climatic gradients. We modelled three epochs of climate data: 1990 to 2009, 2020 to 2039, and 2060 to 2079, alongside three fuel management strategies: no prescribed burning, low rates of prescribed burning, and high rates of prescribed burning. We analyse changes in fire frequency, extent, intensity, and severity across Victoria to provide estimates of potential risk under the three management scenarios for each epoch. Wildfire risks increased under future climate predictions and from west to central Victoria, declining again in the eastern regions. These simulations provide baseline estimates for the spatial distribution of future wildfire risk across Victoria, Australia, and can be used to help prioritise conservation actions to areas of the lowest risk. We also found that there were no statistically significant differences between fuel management scenarios, reiterating that prescribed burning will not necessarily negate the impacts of climate change on future wildfire risk. Incorporating spatial estimates of future wildfire risk can improve the prioritisation of conservation decisions and can help protect biodiversity in the long term. Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
1 pages, 151 KiB  
Abstract
New Specific Plans for Forest Fire Prevention
by Giacomo Pacini, Irene Cacciatore and Gianluca Calvani
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 96; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017096 - 22 Aug 2022
Viewed by 653
Abstract
Ongoing climate change induces extreme phenomena and creates favourable conditions for the development of large fires [...] Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
2 pages, 170 KiB  
Abstract
A Spatial Analysis of Wildfire Risk Factors in Agroforestry Areas under Climate Change: A Case Study from Monte Pisanu, Sardinia (Italy)
by Tommaso Richelmy, Giovanni Antonio Re, Federico Sanna, Antonello Franca, Michele Salis and Bachisio Arca
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 97; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017097 - 22 Aug 2022
Viewed by 831
Abstract
In recent years, wildfires of unprecedented scale and duration have occurred in different regions of the world, a phenomenon that is expected to be exacerbated by climate change [...] Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
1 pages, 170 KiB  
Abstract
Med-PSS: Developing a Forest Fire Risk Culture in the Franco-Italian Mediterranean Area
by Laura Carlon
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 98; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017098 - 23 Aug 2022
Viewed by 645
Abstract
MED-PSS is a Franco-Italian cooperation project aiming at developing the culture of wildfire risk among the populations of the regions of Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur and Corsica (France), and Liguria, Tuscany and Sardinia (Italy). It is part of the Med-STAR projects consortium. MED-PSS provides, through [...] Read more.
MED-PSS is a Franco-Italian cooperation project aiming at developing the culture of wildfire risk among the populations of the regions of Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur and Corsica (France), and Liguria, Tuscany and Sardinia (Italy). It is part of the Med-STAR projects consortium. MED-PSS provides, through a state-of-the-art focused on fire-fighting communication best practices related to prevention and alert, a better understanding of the relationship that institutions with prevention missions maintain with different target groups in their territory and of how to sensitize them in a relevant and effective way to prevent the risk of wildfires. The state-of-the-art proposes, in support of a survey, a definition of the variants that compose the culture of wildfires’ risk. It identifies the target groups to be informed and sensitized in priority, as well as possible actions to undertake to go beyond the simple acquisition of technical and scientific knowledge in order to engage a real understanding of the wildfire phenomenon and automatisms to anticipate the risk and reduce it. In order to enhance and disseminate the culture of wildfire risk, the eight institutions composing the project’s partnership implemented 20 communication experiments in their territories. Demonstration operations addressing neighbourhoods at risk, the creation of a youth regional forest guard, the implementation of new technology-based apps and smart signage to alert the population, a traveling exhibition on wildfire prevention, the creation of multimedia products to engage schools and students in prevention programmes, and fire risk-level bulletins for operators in the wildfire sector are among the experiments undertaken trough the project to address the various audiences. Lessons learned from the experiments will be compiled in a communication best practices guide, which will provide operational keys for defining an effective, preventive communication strategy and improving transboundary institutional fire prevention approaches. Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
1 pages, 201 KiB  
Abstract
Assessing Economical Losses in Pulp Industry Properties Due to Large Wildfires in Central Portugal
by Beatriz Lourenço, Bruno Aparício, Chiara Bruni, Akli Benali and Ana Sá
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 99; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017099 - 24 Aug 2022
Viewed by 588
Abstract
Undoubtedly, wildfires impacts have been increasing in the Mediterranean basin during the last decades. In Portugal, recent extreme fire events demanded science-based information to support priority measures to protect values at risk. Our results show that the highest fire hazard occurs in the [...] Read more.
Undoubtedly, wildfires impacts have been increasing in the Mediterranean basin during the last decades. In Portugal, recent extreme fire events demanded science-based information to support priority measures to protect values at risk. Our results show that the highest fire hazard occurs in the vicinity of the industrial properties (up to 1 km), mainly due to high BP in non-industrial eucalyptus plantations, and large fires in pastures and oaklands. Risk values range from 0 to 665 €/ha. 7% of the eucalyptus productive area has values above 141 €/ha (corresponding to the 90th percentile). Based on these results, we highlight the major sources of hazard in the landscape as well as the location of the properties with the highest values at risk. Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
1 pages, 181 KiB  
Abstract
The FIRE-RES Project: Innovative Technologies and Socio-Ecological–Economic Solutions for FIRE RESilient Territories in Europe
by Andrea Duane, Antoni Trasobares, Elena Górriz, Laia Casafont and Sara Maltoni
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 100; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017100 - 24 Aug 2022
Viewed by 668
Abstract
Extreme wildfire events exceeding control capacity are becoming a major environmental, economic and social threat, not only in fire-prone regions in Southern Europe, America and Oceania, but also in new areas such as Central and Northern Europe. The EU H2020 FIRE-RES project aims [...] Read more.
Extreme wildfire events exceeding control capacity are becoming a major environmental, economic and social threat, not only in fire-prone regions in Southern Europe, America and Oceania, but also in new areas such as Central and Northern Europe. The EU H2020 FIRE-RES project aims to provide Europe with the necessary capacity to avoid collapse in the face of Extreme Wildfire Events (EWE), which are projected to increase as the result of a harsher climate. FIRE-RES is a 4-year project (2021–2025) whose scope is to effectively promote the implementation of a holistic fire management approach and support the transition towards more resilient landscapes and communities to EWE in Europe. FIRE-RES brings together a transdisciplinary, multi-actor consortium of 35 partners, formed by researchers, wildfire agencies, technological companies, industry and civil society from 13 countries, linking to broader networks in science and disaster reduction management. The project will deploy a total of 34 innovation actions across a set of eleven living labs representing different environments in Europe and Chile. Its final mission is to boost the socio-ecological transition of the European Union towards a fire-resilient continent by developing a stream of innovative actions. Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
1 pages, 169 KiB  
Abstract
Calibrating the US National Fire Danger Rating System for Sardinia
by William M. Jolly, Michele Salis, Grazia Pellizzaro, Bachisio Arca, Carla Scarpa, Andrea Ventura and Patrick H. Freeborn
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 101; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017101 - 25 Aug 2022
Viewed by 714
Abstract
Over the last two decades, extreme wildfires across Sardinia have challenged firefighting efforts and heavily impacted communities. Heatwaves may become more frequent, increasing wildfire occurrence and intensity across Mediterranean Europe. As conditions changes, fire managers need the best tools available to evaluate changes [...] Read more.
Over the last two decades, extreme wildfires across Sardinia have challenged firefighting efforts and heavily impacted communities. Heatwaves may become more frequent, increasing wildfire occurrence and intensity across Mediterranean Europe. As conditions changes, fire managers need the best tools available to evaluate changes in local weather conditions and to assess their subsequent impact on fire potential in order to effectively prepare for and respond to wildfires, especially in fire-prone vegetation types like the Mediterranean maquis. Fire danger rating systems can fill this crucial need if properly calibrated. Here we explore the calibration of the fuel moisture models of the US National Fire Danger Rating System in the Mediterranean maquis of Northwest Sardinia. We leverage field measured near-surface weather, 10-h dead fuel moisture observations and live fuel moisture measurements to calibrate the dead and live fuel moisture models of the US National Fire Danger Rating System. We used grid search optimization to calibrate model parameters which improved relationships between measured and modeled fuel moistures. We then use calibrated fuel moistures to assess seasonal variations in the Energy Release Component and Burning Index from the US National Fire Danger Rating System and we evaluate model performance during extreme wildfire events across Sardinia. Ultimately, this calibrated model can contribute to the development and implementation of robust fire danger rating system to support fire management across Sardinia. Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
1 pages, 155 KiB  
Abstract
The Medcoopfire Project
by Francesca Lantero, Paola Du Jardin, Federica Claudia Pesle, Valentina Parodi, Stefano Vergante and Massimo Galardi
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 102; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017102 - 25 Aug 2022
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 581
Abstract
The Medcoopfire project is part of the project system on forest fire management and aims to analyse, share and build a management model agreed between fire extinguishing operations through partnership. The objective is to develop a more effective strategy for the management of [...] Read more.
The Medcoopfire project is part of the project system on forest fire management and aims to analyse, share and build a management model agreed between fire extinguishing operations through partnership. The objective is to develop a more effective strategy for the management of fire risk and extinguishing interventions in order to arrive at a common and resilient response at the level of civil society. The idea is to start from the know-how of each individual territory to create a common system of action/reaction, harmonizing policies and procedures, and an interoperability protocol between the intervention teams. Medcoopfire aims to create new cross-border “prototyping” tools, compatible with existing instruments and fire intervention units (AIB), to help the neighbouring region quickly and in an integrated way. The aim is to strengthen existing synergies and create new ones. The consolidation of a widespread and organised operational network is one of the most effective ways to decide on appropriate actions and involves an integrated approach between different actions (preventive, alert, operational preparation and shutdown) and use of resources. Particular attention is paid to the implementation and integration of communications, which are a critical factor for the optimization of interventions. Cooperation really becomes an added value in terms of strengthening the operations of the personnel in emergency management, sharing innovative knowledge tools to compare to forecasting models, and controlling flame front propagation and management. Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
2 pages, 186 KiB  
Abstract
Communication Outputs and Outcomes of the MED-Star and the Four Joint Projects (Intermed; Med-Coopfire; Med-Foreste; Med-PSS)
by Matilde Schirru, Bachisio Arca, Grazia Pellizzaro, Laura Carlon, Massimo Galardi, Annalaura Vannuccini, Gianluca Calvani, Pierpaolo Masia, Stefano Arrizza, Olivier Riffard, Antonio Pasquale Belloi, Michele Salis and Pierpaolo Duce
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 103; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017103 - 26 Aug 2022
Viewed by 658
Abstract
This work is devoted to presenting the communication activities carried out in the MED-Star project and the four joint projects (Intermed; Med-Coopfire; Med-Foreste; Med-PSS). MED-Star (“Strategies and measures to reduce wildfire risk in the Mediterranean area”) is a 3.5-year strategic project that started [...] Read more.
This work is devoted to presenting the communication activities carried out in the MED-Star project and the four joint projects (Intermed; Med-Coopfire; Med-Foreste; Med-PSS). MED-Star (“Strategies and measures to reduce wildfire risk in the Mediterranean area”) is a 3.5-year strategic project that started in May 2019, coordinated by the Sardinia Region, and supported by the Interreg Italy-France Maritime Program 2014–2020, which is co-financed by the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF). The cluster of projects comprises more than 20 partners (among which are regional, provincial, and local institutions; research centers; universities; wildfire and forest managers; etc.) of the cross-border Interreg Italy-France Maritime territory, which includes Sardinia, Corsica, Tuscany, Liguria, and PACA Regions. The projects have the main goals of improving the capacity of public institutions to jointly prevent and manage wildfire risks and propose wildfire risk mitigation and management strategies that can be shared at the transboundary level. In this perspective, these communication activities represent a key element of the projects. The communicative task of the five projects is structured into four main pillars: (1) strategic communication planning and digital communication channels; (2) dissemination, networking, and public events; (3) institutional communication about wildfire risks; and (4) joint training and exchanges of experience for the definition of the shared models of land and wildfire management. Our contribution will highlight the most relevant communication outputs and outcomes of the MED-Star and the four joint projects, among others, providing an in-depth analysis of the communication activities within the strategic “MED-Star media” platform. Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
2 pages, 204 KiB  
Abstract
Implementation of a Vulnerability Assessment Tool for Properties at the Wildland-Urban Interface Based on Real Case Studies
by Pascale Vacca, Alba Àgueda, Elsa Pastor and Eulàlia Planas
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 104; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017104 - 29 Aug 2022
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 676
Abstract
Wildland–Urban Interface (WUI) fires pose great management challenges in terms of civil protection and fire mitigation, as firefighters’ capacities are often exceeded due to the need of simultaneous response to wildfire suppression, community evacuation, and structure protection [...] Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
2 pages, 168 KiB  
Abstract
Keep an Eye on Mediterranean Vegetation: A Phenocam Approach
by Ludovica Oddi, Chiara Maggi, Paolo Fiorucci, Edoardo Cremonese, Gianluca Filippa, Marta Galvagno, Consolata Siniscalco and Umberto Morra di Cella
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 105; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017105 - 29 Aug 2022
Viewed by 607
Abstract
Plant phenology reveals important information about the physiological status of plants, especially in relation to water availability [...] Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
2 pages, 186 KiB  
Abstract
An Automatic Algorithm for Mapping Burned Areas from Sentinel Data in Mediterranean Europe: Analysis of 2021 Major Fire Events in Italy and Greece
by Matteo Sali, Mirco Boschetti, Gherardo Chirici, Saverio Francini, Francesca Giannetti, Michele Salis, Bachisio Arca, Grazia Pellizzaro, Pierpaolo Duce and Daniela Stroppiana
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 106; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017106 - 29 Aug 2022
Viewed by 662
Abstract
The 2021 European summer season has been one of the most intense for Mediterranean regions that experienced a heatwave in August, determining the onset of several fire events across regions in southern Europe [...] Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
1 pages, 169 KiB  
Abstract
A Multi-Component Approach for Mapping Wildfire Risk in the Wildland–Urban Interface
by Jose Maria Costa-Saura, Claudio Ribotta, David Caballero, Christophe Bouillon, Eric Maille, Donatella Spano, Valentina Bacciu, Costantino Sirca, Salvatore Cabiddu and Leandro Usai
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 107; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017107 - 29 Aug 2022
Viewed by 828
Abstract
Global change is increasing concerns regarding fire risk, especially for the wildland–urban interface (WUI). Indeed, different cross-national funded projects aim to develop new methodologies and technologies for assessing and reducing fire risk at the WUI. Traditional approaches focused on multi-criteria decision analysis usually [...] Read more.
Global change is increasing concerns regarding fire risk, especially for the wildland–urban interface (WUI). Indeed, different cross-national funded projects aim to develop new methodologies and technologies for assessing and reducing fire risk at the WUI. Traditional approaches focused on multi-criteria decision analysis usually neglecting the interaction of multiple fine-scale components. Here, within the framework of the Italy–France Maritime INTERMED project, we develop a new fire risk assessment methodology following the IPCC guidelines, i.e., considering the three main risk determinants: hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Each single risk determinant integrates multiple components which were estimated using high-resolution data from the European Spatial Agency (ESA), field data, fire spread simulators and local administrations’ geo-data. Hazard components run at the local scale, involving weather and fuel moisture conditions, and also ignition patterns, whereas fire exposure components integrate both percolation and spot potentials (fire pathways and micro-scale land flammability) and postfrontal combustion (residential fuels). Finally, vulnerability components include the type of house and its configuration but also the existence of protection devices. Preliminary results suggest that this methodology might help fire risk planning in WUIs at both landscape and community scales. Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
1 pages, 155 KiB  
Abstract
The 2021 Montiferru Wildfire, Sardinia (Italy): Analysis of a Large Wildfire
by Maria Tiziana Pinna, Maria Gabriella Cuccu, Maria Piera Giannasi, Antonio Casula and Salvatore Cabiddu
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 108; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017108 - 30 Aug 2022
Viewed by 879
Abstract
Extreme wildfires events (EWEs) represent a real challenge for any firefighting apparatus, as they exceed the current control capacity even in the best-prepared regions of the world, and they create destruction and a disproportionate number of fatalities [...] Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
2 pages, 175 KiB  
Abstract
Anticipating Future Extreme Wildfires by Predicting the Probability of Ignition and Escape of Initial Attack in Catalunya
by Fellice Gabrielle Catelo, Marcos Rodrigues and Aitor Ameztegui
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 109; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017109 - 30 Aug 2022
Viewed by 617
Abstract
In recent years, the EU has implemented several firefighting-related policies to battle and reduce the negative impacts of wildfires [...] Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
1 pages, 194 KiB  
Abstract
Spatial Variability of Wildfire Causes in French Eastern Mediterranean Regions
by Claudio Ribotta, José Maria Costa-Saura, Valentina Bacciu, Costantino Sirca and Donatella Spano
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 110; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017110 - 30 Aug 2022
Viewed by 593
Abstract
The study of wildfire’s causes and ignition patterns, which in the Mediterranean area, are mainly directly or indirectly linked to human activities, is essential for designing effective wildfire risks reduction measures and to mitigate the related impacts on ecosystems and livelihoods [...] Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
1 pages, 184 KiB  
Abstract
Live Fuel Moisture Estimation Using Sentinel 2 Data in Non-Monospecific Mediterranean Shrublands
by Jose Maria Costa-Saura, Angel Balaguer-Beser, Luis Angel Ruiz, Josep Pardo-Pascual and Jose Luis Soriano-Sancho
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 111; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017111 - 30 Aug 2022
Viewed by 722
Abstract
Live fuel moisture (LFM) is essential for monitoring fire risk, since it influences vegetation flammability and the rate of spread of fires. Indeed, national and regional fire agencies typically use weather-based methods to predict and map LFM in an operational way. However, contrasting [...] Read more.
Live fuel moisture (LFM) is essential for monitoring fire risk, since it influences vegetation flammability and the rate of spread of fires. Indeed, national and regional fire agencies typically use weather-based methods to predict and map LFM in an operational way. However, contrasting water strategies across species (i.e., isohydric versus anisohydric) and variability in environmental conditions (e.g., soil water conditions) limit the use of these methods. Remote sensing potentially overcomes these limitations, since it directly “observes” vegetation water status. Previous studies using coarse-resolution satellite sensors, ranging from 1 km–300 m (AVHRR, MODIS, ASTER) showed successful results, but were limited to large homogenous and monospecific areas. Here, we take advantage of the new generation of Sentinel-2 sensors, which provide data at high spatial and temporal resolution (10 meters and 5 days, respectively) to build and spatially project an empirical LMF model for heterogeneous Mediterranean areas. The study, located in eastern Spain, includes 15 non-monospecific sample locations and tests different vegetation indices. The Normalized Difference Moisture Index (NDMI), together with the mean temperature of previous days, explained up to 70% of the variability, with a mean absolute error of 6%. Our results highlight the potential usefulness of remote sensing products to build near-real time tailored tools for wildfire risk management. Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
2 pages, 184 KiB  
Abstract
Numerical Study of Junction Fires on Sloped Terrain for Grassland Vegetation
by Jacky Fayad, Gilbert Accary, Duncan Sutherland, Sofiane Meradji, Nicolas Frangieh, Khaled Moinuddin, Dominique Morvan, François Joseph Chatelon and Jean-Louis Rossi
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 112; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017112 - 30 Aug 2022
Viewed by 778
Abstract
Junction fires involve the merging of two linear fire fronts intersecting at a small angle which gives rise to an interaction process with fire-induced convective flows that modify the behavior of both fires and produce very large values of the rate of spread [...] Read more.
Junction fires involve the merging of two linear fire fronts intersecting at a small angle which gives rise to an interaction process with fire-induced convective flows that modify the behavior of both fires and produce very large values of the rate of spread (ROS) of the inner part of the two fires [...] Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
1 pages, 174 KiB  
Abstract
A Socioeconomic Model to Improve Fire Ignition Danger Assessment in an Alpine Environment
by Mariana Silva Andrade, Mortimer M. Müller and Harald Vacik
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 113; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017113 - 30 Aug 2022
Viewed by 529
Abstract
Human-caused forest fires are becoming a severe threat to the Alpine region due to the increased temperatures and heatwaves in recent years [...] Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
2 pages, 214 KiB  
Abstract
Efficiency and Impact of Prescribed Burning in Pinus laricio Forest
by Pauline Longeard, Frederic Morandini, Sugahendni Nadarajah, Antoine Pieri, Antonella Massaiu, Marie-Cécile Andrei-Ruiz and Lila Ferrat
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 114; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017114 - 31 Aug 2022
Viewed by 663
Abstract
Like many Mediterranean regions, Corsica is frequently exposed to forest fire risk [...] Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
2 pages, 196 KiB  
Abstract
Mapping Fire Ignition Probability through a Two-Level Approach in a Mediterranean Area: The Corse (France) Case Study
by Claudio Ribotta, José Maria Costa-Saura, Valentina Bacciu, Costantino Sirca and Donatella Spano
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 115; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017115 - 31 Aug 2022
Viewed by 624
Abstract
Wildfire ignition patterns are a key factor in fire regimes and, thus, increasing knowledge about where and why wildfires occur is essential to implement more effective prevention strategies. Furthermore, spatial predictions of potential fire ignition patterns might help to better allocate the economic [...] Read more.
Wildfire ignition patterns are a key factor in fire regimes and, thus, increasing knowledge about where and why wildfires occur is essential to implement more effective prevention strategies. Furthermore, spatial predictions of potential fire ignition patterns might help to better allocate the economic efforts for prevention and to develop wildfire policies. Despite this, few studies addressed ignition patterns within the analysis of fire regimes in detail. This is often due to the scarcity and coarse resolution of data, e.g., ignition causes aggregated by municipalities or provinces that prevent low-scale studies or management actions. In this work, we propose a two-level approach combining spatial coarse-scale models of fire causes with high-resolution ignition prediction maps to overcome the aforementioned limitations. In the framework of the Italy–France Marittimo MED-Star project, two datasets relating to Corse (France) were obtained and combined: (1) fire causes from Promethée and (2) the spatial ignition points of Goliat database. The random forest algorithm was used for modelling the probability of fire causes based on socioeconomic and environmental factors (retrieved from Copernicus LMS and INSEE’s databases). Later, a recommendation system algorithm was applied to calibrate an ignition prediction model based on local conditions at a finer scale. Finally, both models were spatially projected over the territory and then, the probability of each cause (resampled at ~50 m) was multiplied by the ignition prediction map to obtain a high-resolution likelihood for each cause. This work aimed to be the first step to find which algorithms give better results in processing data on wildfire ignition points and causes, together with project fire ignition prediction maps. Results suggest that more extensive and detailed databases could improve result accuracy and that agencies’ data collection on fire ignition points and causes could lead to a better understanding of fire ignition patterns and their variety. Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
2 pages, 212 KiB  
Abstract
Effect of Incoming Wind on Combustion of Ornamental Vegetation at the Wildland–Urban Interface
by Anthony Graziani, Karina Meerpoel-Pietri, Virginie Tihay-Felicelli, Paul-Antoine Santoni and Frédéric Morandini
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 116; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017116 - 1 Sep 2022
Viewed by 708
Abstract
With global warming and rising occurrence of drought conditions, the risk of fire spreading at Wildland–Urban Interfaces (WUI) increases every year [...] Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
2 pages, 200 KiB  
Abstract
Insights on Passive Fire Protection of Wood Materials in Use at Wildland–Urban Interface: Case of Intumescent Coatings
by Jean-Valère Lorenzetti, Toussaint Barboni and Paul-Antoine Santoni
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 117; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017117 - 1 Sep 2022
Viewed by 767
Abstract
Wood materials used as furniture or construction at WUI constitute a hazard in case of wildfire exposure [...] Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
2 pages, 204 KiB  
Abstract
Modelling the Burning of an Ornamental Vegetation with WFDS: From Laboratory to Field Scale
by Anthony Graziani, Karina Meerpoel-Pietri, Virginie Tihay-Felicelli, Paul-Antoine Santoni, Frédéric Morandini, Yolanda Perez-Ramirez and William Mell
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 118; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017118 - 1 Sep 2022
Viewed by 749
Abstract
Among the vectors of fire propagation towards buildings in the WUI, ornamental hedges have been identified as one of the main elements [...] Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
1 pages, 152 KiB  
Abstract
Improvement of Wildland Fire Management with ArcGIS
by Christina Ferner
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 119; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017119 - 1 Sep 2022
Viewed by 667
Abstract
The growing frequency of wildland fire events across the globe is creating an ever-increasing strain on communities and the resources which are necessary to manage those events, whether planned or unplanned. ArcGIS can improve situational awareness from the moment of the inception of [...] Read more.
The growing frequency of wildland fire events across the globe is creating an ever-increasing strain on communities and the resources which are necessary to manage those events, whether planned or unplanned. ArcGIS can improve situational awareness from the moment of the inception of a wildfire and throughout the response. During prevention and management activities, the ArcGIS mobile applications and web mapping applications have proven invaluable. This presentation will explore cases where ArcGIS maps and apps have aided managers with decision making. The tools also aid in rapidly providing and receiving real-time intelligence to and from field personnel. The cases discussed will be real-life examples and best practices for using this technology for informing stakeholders and citizens. Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
1 pages, 153 KiB  
Abstract
Leverage ArcGIS Remote Sensing Tools to Improve Wildfire Management
by Christina Ferner
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 120; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017120 - 1 Sep 2022
Viewed by 636
Abstract
Natural hazards, such as fires and floods, are a fact of life. Swift responses and proactive planning can mitigate the severity of a disaster and lessen the potential for cascading impacts. Fire planners need to be able to quickly identify areas of high [...] Read more.
Natural hazards, such as fires and floods, are a fact of life. Swift responses and proactive planning can mitigate the severity of a disaster and lessen the potential for cascading impacts. Fire planners need to be able to quickly identify areas of high risk and vulnerability and prioritize resources for maximum impact. This is where innovative technology to conduct analyses, such as burn severity, terrain ruggedness, and object detection using deep learning, can help. Results display the whole picture, along with the context of location, To help us make more informed decisions. We learn about these analyses in ArcGIS, along with how they can drive informed decisions and how results can be rapidly shared with stakeholders and citizens. Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
1 pages, 182 KiB  
Abstract
NDVI Analysis for Monitoring the Spatial and Temporal Variability of the Vegetation Cover in Sardinia: A Proposal to Support Natural Hazard Management
by Paolo Capece, Antonio Ganga, Carlo Dessy and Alessandro M. S. Delitala
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 121; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017121 - 1 Sep 2022
Viewed by 782
Abstract
In Sardinia, the high inter-annual variability of rainfall, increase in average temperatures, and anthropic activities are determining factors for the detectable variations in the vegetation cover. Therefore, it is essential to build an integrated assessment system for monitoring the aforementioned factors. From this [...] Read more.
In Sardinia, the high inter-annual variability of rainfall, increase in average temperatures, and anthropic activities are determining factors for the detectable variations in the vegetation cover. Therefore, it is essential to build an integrated assessment system for monitoring the aforementioned factors. From this point of view, the NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index) is one of the most widespread tools for dynamic and qualitative analysis of the vegetation conditions. The condition of the vegetation and the seasonal meteorological trend are strongly correlated and constitute important information in support of environmental emergency monitoring. Monitoring this kind of information, with an adequate temporal and spatial scale, is essential for fire protection. From 2004 to 2021, the NDVI has been studied with different spatial resolutions in the framework of the activity of the Regional Agency for the Protection of the Environment of Sardinia (ARPAS). The processed data are used by the Local Functional Center of the Civil Protection of Sardina. Although ARPAS uses the highest resolution available with the Modis sensor, specifically the Terra and Aqua sensors made available by NASA, the purpose of this work is to analyze the production activity of the NDVI maps during the period of 2011–2021, to evaluate its effectiveness as a monitoring tool to support fire prevention. Therefore, in the INTERREG Medstar project, we proceeded to analyze the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data, with a focus on the NDVI data, with a spatial resolution of 250 m and a temporal resolution of 16 days. The statistical relationships between the spatial database obtained and a set of environmental parameters and climatic indicators describe the trend vegetation conditions over the year. The identification of the vegetative stress scenarios makes it possible to program the activities of land protection with greater accuracy. Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
2 pages, 194 KiB  
Abstract
Modelling Cork Oak Woodlands for Wildfire Simulations with WFDS: The Role of Vegetation Spatial Patterns
by Yolanda Pérez-Ramirez, Anthony Graziani, Paul-Antoine Santoni, Justin Ziegler, Chad Hoffman, William Mell, Virginie Tihay-Felicelli and Anne Ganteaume
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 122; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017122 - 2 Sep 2022
Viewed by 903
Abstract
Research applications of three-dimensional, time-dependent, computational fluid dynamics fire behavior models, such as the Wildland Urban Interface Fire Dynamics Simulator (WFDS) [...] Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
1 pages, 175 KiB  
Abstract
Assessment of Post-Fire Vegetation Recovery Using Fire Severity in Sardinia (Oristano—Montiferru)
by Raffaella Lovreglio, Antonio Ganga and Francesca Putzolu
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 123; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017123 - 5 Sep 2022
Viewed by 764
Abstract
On 23 and 24 July in the province of Oristano (central western Sardinia) in the massif of Montiferru, an event classified as extreme wildfire (EWE) occurred, with vast-proportion fires at the limit of the so-called control capacity (internationally established as at or exceeding [...] Read more.
On 23 and 24 July in the province of Oristano (central western Sardinia) in the massif of Montiferru, an event classified as extreme wildfire (EWE) occurred, with vast-proportion fires at the limit of the so-called control capacity (internationally established as at or exceeding a fire intensity of 10,000 kwm−1, and rate of spread of 3 km/h). The impact of this great fire was mainly on the people who live in the area (houses and farms destroyed) and on the agro-pastoral activities that take place, but, after the event, the most dangerous of the effects of a large-scale fire may occur on soil and hydrogeological and slope stability. From a first mapping, the damaged woods are relatively few; in fact, the forests comprised about 10% of the surface covered by the fire, whereas the remainder is Mediterranean bush (34%), grassland (32%), agricultural areas (23%) and urban areas (1%) (2013 Geolab Unifi elaborations). Therefore, the first aim of this study is to map the event using the Sentinel 2-A data to map burnt areas and to define severity classes. The Normalized Burn Ratio (NBR) was calculated to identify ‘burn scar’ and discriminate the ‘burn severity’ classes. We have also quantified the burnt areas in terms of land-cover categories and types of vegetation damaged by fire to define the postfire restoration measures after fires, both to limit problems of land loss and facilitate the natural return of vegetation. The different strategies to restore burnt areas at different scales (e.g., slope or basin) depend on the level of severity of the fire and are divided into three main groups: (1) support regeneration or rehabilitation, (2) restoration, and (3) emergency stabilization. The secondary study aim is therefore to define specific post-fire intervention strategies concerning the different severity gradients estimated in fire areas. Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
1 pages, 159 KiB  
Abstract
Strategies and Measures for Wildfire Risk Mitigation in the Mediterranean Area: The MED-Star Project
by Antonio Pasquale Belloi, Stefano Campesi, Corrado Nieddu, Francesco Tola, Sergio Deiana, Marinella Zizi, Giancarlo Muntoni, Giovanni Tesei, Alessandro Delitala and Carlo Dessy
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 124; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017124 - 6 Sep 2022
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 745
Abstract
The strategic project MED-Star—Strategies and measures for fire risk mitigation in the Mediterranean area—was funded by the Cross-border Cooperation Programme “Italy—France Maritime” from 2014 to 2020. The general objective is to contribute to the improvement in the capacity of public institutions to prevent [...] Read more.
The strategic project MED-Star—Strategies and measures for fire risk mitigation in the Mediterranean area—was funded by the Cross-border Cooperation Programme “Italy—France Maritime” from 2014 to 2020. The general objective is to contribute to the improvement in the capacity of public institutions to prevent and manage the increasing risk of wildfire resulting from climate change in areas of interest with a high human presence and characterized by high nature values. MED-Star aims to promote and enhance the coverage and integration of joint public fire-risk-management systems. In general, the project envisages: (i) the development of innovative governance models, implementing joint plans in all phases of firefighting; (ii) transferring innovative models and methodologies from the scientific world to public administrations; (iii) creating a joint monitoring and coordination system for firefighting; (iv) developing communication, awareness, and training actions aimed at the general public, e.g., the population, but also tourists and other stakeholders. MED-Star consists of four components as “sub-actions” of the strategic project idea and four simple projects connected to the strategic idea but autonomous in terms of budgets and project management teams. These components are T1—Fire Monitoring; T2—Fire Prediction and Prevention; T3—Fire Management and Strategic Planning; and C—Communication. The simple projects are pilot or study projects with a focus on specific in-depth issues, the outputs of which constitute a contribution to the implementation of MED-Star. The project partnership is extensive and includes five regions, three universities, five research institutes, and other public institutions of the programme area. The Region of Sardinia is the project leader. Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
2 pages, 190 KiB  
Abstract
Smoke Emission from Burning Wood and Thermoplastic Decking Slabs with a Calorimeter Cone
by Bruno Martinent, Karina Meerpoel-Pietri, Paul-Antoine Santoni, Virginie Tihay-Felicelli and Toussaint Barboni
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 125; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017125 - 8 Sep 2022
Viewed by 670
Abstract
Wildfires are a major threat to the environment and human populations [...] Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
2 pages, 208 KiB  
Abstract
Wildfire Hazard and Risk Assessment in Pulp Paper Industrial Properties under Extreme Weather Conditions: A Case Study in North-Western Portugal
by Chiara Bruni, Bruno Aparício, Akli Benali, Beatriz Lourenço, Martinho Marta-Almeida, Susana Barreiro, Alfredo Rocha and Ana Sá
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 126; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017126 - 16 Sep 2022
Viewed by 830
Abstract
Since the 1960s, Portugal has been affected by land use/land cover changes, resulting, nationwide, in an increase in fuel contiguity, availability and fire proneness [...] Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
1 pages, 172 KiB  
Abstract
Modelling the Wildfire Risk Components Using Experts Opinions-Based Multicriteria Evaluation: A Focus on Fire Ignition and Outbreak Hazards
by Eric Maillé, Abdesslam Chai-Allah and Christophe Bouillon
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 127; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017127 - 16 Sep 2022
Viewed by 745
Abstract
We designed and tested an expert opinion-based multi-criteria model for the assessment of several components of the wildfire risk, including ignition and outbreak hazards (the probability of ignition “success”), propagation hazard, as well as stakes exposure and vulnerability. The approach also allows formalizing [...] Read more.
We designed and tested an expert opinion-based multi-criteria model for the assessment of several components of the wildfire risk, including ignition and outbreak hazards (the probability of ignition “success”), propagation hazard, as well as stakes exposure and vulnerability. The approach also allows formalizing the interaction between these components, in order to specify an integrated analytical risk model. The formal risk model is specified according to the IPCC 2014 conceptual framework, which structures the risk in hazard, vulnerability and exposure components. Only the structural risk is assessed, related to climate, fuel and land management, and not the daily risk (danger). The multicriteria method used in this demarche is the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The experts opinion-based approach is justified by the lack of spatially precise data related to past events, particularly ignition points and damages databases, while the fire contours are also sometimes imprecise. The model does not give any absolute value of risk, but only hierarchizes the different zones of a whole region in relation to their relative level of risk. The model has to be recalibrated for each context it is designed for, with new expert enquiries. The method was initially specified to the supra-Mediterranean area of a South Eastern France Natural Regional Parc (Parc Naturel Regional des Baronnies Provençales) and is now being calibrated to the MED-STAR/INTERMED French area. In a second step, each of the “atomic” models (for each component assessment) are being validated using statistical tools. Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
1 pages, 172 KiB  
Abstract
Multi-Factor Analysis of House Loss in Two Major Wildfire Seasons in NSW Australia
by Owen Price
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 128; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017128 - 16 Sep 2022
Viewed by 682
Abstract
Three recent studies from NSW (Australia) have tried to disentangle the many factors influencing house loss in wildfires at different scales [...] Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
2 pages, 183 KiB  
Abstract
Laboratory Investigation of Flammability of Two Decking Slabs Used in the Wildland–Urban Interface
by Karina Meerpoel-Pietri, Virginie Tihay-Felicelli and Paul-Antoine Santoni
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 129; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017129 - 21 Sep 2022
Viewed by 585
Abstract
During a wildfire, combustible exterior building materials, like decking assemblies, may be ignited and cause severe damage or total loss of a dwelling [...] Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
2 pages, 168 KiB  
Abstract
Modelling Present and Future Wildfire Risk with Use of a Fire Weather Index, Spatial Weather Generator and Regional Climate Models
by Martin Dubrovsky, Michele Salis, Petr Stepanek, Pierpaolo Duce, Pavel Zahradnicek, Jan Meitner and Martin Mozny
Environ. Sci. Proc. 2022, 17(1), 130; https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022017130 - 22 Sep 2022
Viewed by 887
Abstract
To construct time series for a Fire Weather Index (FWI), input weather series may come from various sources [...] Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of The Third International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk)
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