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Evaluation and Prediction of the Impacts of Land Cover Changes on Hydrological Processes in Data Constrained Southern Slopes of Kilimanjaro, Tanzania

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Department of Water and Environmental Science and Engineering, School of Materials, Energy, Water and Environmental Sciences and Engineering, The Nelson Mandela African Institution of Science and Technology, Arusha P.O. Box 447, Tanzania
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Department of Environmental Engineering and Management, College of Earth Sciences and Engineering, The University of Dodoma, Dodoma P.O. Box 11090, Tanzania
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Department of Environmental Planning, Institute of Rural Development Planning (IRDP), Dodoma P.O. Box 138, Tanzania
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Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, Solomon Mahlangu College of Science and Education, Sokoine University of Agriculture, Morogoro P.O. Box 3001, Tanzania
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Department of Sustainable Agriculture, Biodiversity and Ecosystem Management, School of Life Sciences and Bioengineering, The Nelson Mandela African Institution of Science and Technology, Arusha P.O. Box 447, Tanzania
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Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Tommaso Caloiero
Earth 2021, 2(2), 225-247; https://doi.org/10.3390/earth2020014
Received: 5 May 2021 / Revised: 21 May 2021 / Accepted: 27 May 2021 / Published: 30 May 2021
This study provides a detailed assessment of land cover (LC) changes on the water balance components on data constrained Kikafu-Weruweru-Karanga (KWK) watershed, using the integrated approaches of hydrologic modeling and partial least squares regression (PLSR). The soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model was validated and used to simulate hydrologic responses of water balance components response to changes in LC in spatial and temporal scale. PLSR was further used to assess the influence of individual LC classes on hydrologic components. PLSR results revealed that expansion in cultivation land and built-up area are the main attributes in the changes in water yield, surface runoff, evapotranspiration (ET), and groundwater flow. The study findings suggest that improving the vegetation cover on the hillside and abandoned land area could help to reduce the direct surface runoff in the KWK watershed, thus, reducing flooding recurring in the area, and that with the ongoing expansion in agricultural land and built-up areas, there will be profound negative impacts in the water balance of the watershed in the near future (2030). This study provides a forecast of the future hydrological parameters in the study area based on changes in land cover if the current land cover changes go unattended. This study provides useful information for the advancement of our policies and practices essential for sustainable water management planning. View Full-Text
Keywords: land use change; SWAT model; water balance; PLSR; Mount Kilimanjaro land use change; SWAT model; water balance; PLSR; Mount Kilimanjaro
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MDPI and ACS Style

Said, M.; Hyandye, C.; Mjemah, I.C.; Komakech, H.C.; Munishi, L.K. Evaluation and Prediction of the Impacts of Land Cover Changes on Hydrological Processes in Data Constrained Southern Slopes of Kilimanjaro, Tanzania. Earth 2021, 2, 225-247. https://doi.org/10.3390/earth2020014

AMA Style

Said M, Hyandye C, Mjemah IC, Komakech HC, Munishi LK. Evaluation and Prediction of the Impacts of Land Cover Changes on Hydrological Processes in Data Constrained Southern Slopes of Kilimanjaro, Tanzania. Earth. 2021; 2(2):225-247. https://doi.org/10.3390/earth2020014

Chicago/Turabian Style

Said, Mateso, Canute Hyandye, Ibrahimu C. Mjemah, Hans C. Komakech, and Linus K. Munishi 2021. "Evaluation and Prediction of the Impacts of Land Cover Changes on Hydrological Processes in Data Constrained Southern Slopes of Kilimanjaro, Tanzania" Earth 2, no. 2: 225-247. https://doi.org/10.3390/earth2020014

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