Long-Term Monitoring of Qaraoun Lake’s Water Quality and Hydrological Deterioration Using Landsat 7–9 and Google Earth Engine: Evidence of Environmental Decline in Lebanon

Globally, lakes are increasingly recognized as sensitive indicators of climate change and ecosystem stress. Qaraoun Lake, Lebanon’s largest artificial reservoir, is a critical resource for irrigation, hydropower generation, and domestic water supply. Over the past 25 years, satellite remote sensing has enabled consistent monitoring of its hydrological and environmental dynamics. This study leverages the advanced cloud-based processing capabilities of Google Earth Engine (GEE) to analyze over 180 cloud-free scenes from Landsat 7 (Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus) (ETM+) from 2000 to present, Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager and Thermal Infrared Sensor (OLI/TIRS) from 2013 to present, and Landsat 9 OLI-2/TIRS-2 from 2021 to present, quantifying changes in lake surface area, water volume, and pollution levels. Water extent was delineated using the Modified Normalized Difference Water Index (MNDWI), enhanced through pansharpening to improve spatial resolution from 30 m to 15 m. Water quality was evaluated using a composite pollution index that integrates three spectral indicators—the Normalized Difference Chlorophyll Index (NDCI), the Floating Algae Index (FAI), and a normalized Shortwave Infrared (SWIR) band—which serves as a proxy for turbidity and organic matter. This index was further standardized against a conservative Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) threshold to reduce vegetation interference. The resulting index ranges from near-zero (minimal pollution) to values exceeding 1.0 (severe pollution), with higher values indicating elevated chlorophyll concentrations, surface reflectance anomalies, and suspended particulate matter. Results indicate a significant decline in mean annual water volume, from a peak of 174.07 million m³ in 2003 to a low of 106.62 million m³ in 2025 (until mid-November). Concurrently, pollution levels increased markedly, with the average index rising from 0.0028 in 2000 to a peak of 0.2465 in 2024. Episodic spikes exceeding 1.0 were detected in 2005, 2016, and 2024, corresponding to documented contamination events. These findings were validated against multiple institutional and international reports, confirming the reliability and efficiency of the GEE-based methodology. Time-series visualizations generated through GEE underscore a dual deterioration, both hydrological and qualitative, highlighting the lake’s growing vulnerability to anthropogenic pressures and climate variability. The study emphasizes the urgent need for integrated watershed management, pollution control measures, and long-term environmental monitoring to safeguard Lebanon’s water security and ecological resilience.