Dynamic Impacts of External Uncertainties on the Stability of the Food Supply Chain: Evidence from China
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Major Sectors of Food Supply Chain
2.2. Sources and Classification of External Uncertainties
2.3. Impacts on Identification and Representative Indicators Selection
2.3.1. Primary Agri-Products Supply Sector
2.3.2. Food Production Sector
2.3.3. Circulation and Trade Sector
2.3.4. Consumption Sector
2.4. TVP-FAVAR-SV Model
2.5. Data Sources
3. Empirical Results
3.1. Identification of Common Factors of External Economic Uncertainties
3.2. Stationary Test
3.3. Impulse Response Result Analysis
3.3.1. The Impulse Responses of Primary Agri-Products Supply Sector
- The impulse responses of primary agri-products purchase price (PAPP)
- 2.
- The impulse responses of production value of primary agri-products (PVPA)
- 3.
- The impulse responses of primary agri-products export (PAE)
- 4.
- The impulse responses of primary agri-products import (PAI)
3.3.2. The Impulse Responses of Food Production Sector
- The impulse responses of sales price of food enterprise (SPFE)
- 2.
- The impulse responses of production value of food industry (PVFI)
- 3.
- The impulse responses of profit margin of food industry (PMFI)
3.3.3. The Impulse Responses of Circulation and Trade Sector
- The impulse responses of food retail (FR)
- 2.
- The impulse responses of food products export (FPE)
- 3.
- The impulse responses of food products import (FPI)
3.3.4. The Impulse Responses of Consumer Sector
- The impulse responses of food consumption price (FCP)
4. Discussion
4.1. The Impacts of Interest Rate Uncertainty (IRU)
4.2. The Impacts of Financial Uncertainty (FU)
4.3. The Impacts of Social Development Uncertainty (SDU)
4.4. The Impacts of Consumption Uncertainty (CU)
4.5. The Impacts of Disaster Emergencies (DE)
4.6. The Impacts of Public Health Emergencies (PHE)
5. Conclusions and Limitations
5.1. Conclusions
5.2. Limitations
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A
Industry | Industry Classification | HS Code for International Trade |
---|---|---|
Primary agriculture | Animal husbandry | HS 0101–HS 0106, HS 0301, HS 0306–HS 0308, HS 0409 |
Plant planting | HS 0601–HS 0709, HS 0807–HS 0810, HS 1001–HS 1008, HS 1201–HS 1207, HS 1213–HS 1301 | |
Agri-products processing industry | Grain grinding | HS 1101–HS 1108, HS 1208 |
Feed processing | HS 2301–HS 2309 | |
Vegetable oil processing | HS 1507–HS 1515 | |
Sugar manufacturing | HS 1701–HS 1703 | |
Slaughtering and meat processing | HS 0201–HS 0210, HS 1501–HS 1506, HS 1601, HS 1602 | |
Aquatic products processing | HS 0302–HS 0305, HS 1604, HS 1605 | |
Vegetable, fungus, fruit and nut processing | HS 0710–HS 0806, HS 0811–HS 0814, HS 1212, HS 1302, HS 2001–HS 2009 | |
Other agri-products processing | HS 0407, HS 0408, HS 0410, HS 0504, HS 1516, HS 1517, HS 1603 | |
Food manufacturing industry | Baked food manufacturing | HS 1905 |
Candy, chocolate and preserves manufacturing | HS 1704, HS 1801–HS 1806, HS 2105 | |
Convenience food manufacturing | HS 1109, HS 1902–HS 1904 | |
Dairy manufacturing | HS 0401–HS 0406 | |
Manufacture of condiments and fermented products manufacturing | HS 0904–HS 0910, HS 2102–HS 2104, HS 2209 | |
Other food manufacturing | HS 1901, HS 2106 |
Variables | F1 | F2 | F3 | F4 |
---|---|---|---|---|
Industrial added value | 0.444899 | 0.201907 | 0.537260 | −0.060217 |
Public finance revenue | 0.319014 | 0.288033 | 0.568247 | −0.009975 |
Public finance expenditure | 0.045836 | 0.085190 | 0.397333 | −0.141375 |
Total investment in fixed assets | −0.008696 | −0.002166 | 0.410383 | −0.013591 |
Investment in fixed assets (primary industry) | −0.091424 | −0.185936 | 0.601000 | −0.000535 |
investment in fixed assets (secondary industry) | 0.021786 | −0.006152 | 0.410686 | −0.002149 |
investment in fixed assets (tertiary industry) | 0.002578 | −0.010675 | 0.340392 | −0.003944 |
M0 | 0.075724 | 0.394883 | 0.011638 | −0.234951 |
M1 | −0.147749 | 0.935180 | 0.136257 | 0.021853 |
M2 | −0.331066 | 0.651739 | 0.110206 | −0.301569 |
Net foreign assets | 0.476568 | 0.226522 | 0.185396 | −0.291054 |
Domestic credit | −0.399953 | 0.194805 | 0.621615 | −0.251532 |
Financial institutions (various loan balances) | −0.277042 | 0.274343 | 0.614739 | −0.271457 |
Financial institutions (new loans) | −0.221360 | 0.348708 | −0.008089 | −0.223083 |
Foreign exchange reserves | 0.436997 | 0.167051 | 0.389807 | −0.179977 |
Treasury bonds purchased by foreign investors | 0.159168 | −0.139475 | −0.071856 | −0.041788 |
Social financing scale | 0.029072 | 0.049978 | 0.500931 | 0.009582 |
New added CNY loan | −0.121207 | 0.152309 | 0.017970 | −0.150750 |
New added foreign currency loan | −0.017943 | 0.193390 | −0.117296 | 0.004739 |
Real effective exchange rate index of CNY | −0.217562 | 0.200169 | −0.435806 | 0.396100 |
Nominal effective exchange rate index of CNY | −0.373022 | 0.115630 | −0.377231 | 0.339515 |
Average exchange rate of USD to CNY | −0.428177 | −0.155023 | 0.029615 | 0.170635 |
Average exchange rate of EUR to CNY | 0.186726 | −0.002973 | 0.288985 | 0.403875 |
Average exchange rate of HKD to CNY | −0.445481 | −0.159734 | 0.016256 | 0.123250 |
Demand deposit rate | 0.686006 | −0.017077 | −0.145596 | 0.186488 |
Time deposit rate (1 year) | 0.980163 | 0.150920 | −0.063780 | 0.026789 |
Time deposit rate (2 year) | 0.988686 | 0.122660 | −0.033572 | 0.011447 |
Time deposit rate (3year) | 0.980282 | 0.126653 | −0.032885 | 0.033200 |
Short-term loan rate (6 months) | 0.962709 | 0.067284 | −0.103924 | 0.101038 |
medium and long-term loan rate (1–3 years) | 0.960328 | 0.107567 | −0.085368 | 0.118153 |
USD deposit rate: within 3 months | 0.375329 | −0.384990 | 0.212345 | 0.223129 |
USD deposit rate (3–6 months) | 0.478229 | −0.379538 | 0.069086 | 0.164440 |
USD deposit rate (6–12 months) | 0.484725 | −0.403575 | 0.096807 | 0.228139 |
USD deposit rate (1 year) | 0.500171 | −0.382324 | 0.057531 | 0.195626 |
Foreign direct investment | 0.354235 | 0.106472 | 0.175658 | 0.004551 |
Export volume index (total index) | 0.352169 | 0.008842 | 0.429960 | 0.264344 |
Import volume index (total index) | 0.330066 | 0.027764 | 0.543125 | 0.127022 |
Listed companies (total market capitalization) | 0.259184 | 0.912681 | 0.172966 | 0.077990 |
Listed companies (circulating market value) | 0.214973 | 0.883517 | 0.359360 | 0.047378 |
Domestic listed companies (total equity) | 0.409881 | 0.554900 | 0.180296 | −0.060256 |
Stock business volume | −0.105887 | 0.818814 | 0.027735 | 0.034458 |
Stock trading volume | −0.266164 | 0.592479 | −0.056413 | 0.001199 |
Financing amount (total domestic and overseas) | 0.013392 | 0.245716 | 0.240910 | 0.016125 |
Business volume of securities invested fund | −0.058704 | 0.651784 | −0.058030 | 0.048044 |
business volume of futures (national) | −0.072574 | 0.495932 | 0.171707 | 0.035969 |
business volume of futures (Dalian) | 0.163292 | 0.335330 | 0.088991 | −0.149083 |
business volume of futures (Shanghai) | −0.255536 | 0.565173 | 0.320412 | −0.135060 |
business volume of futures (Zhengzhou) | 0.263690 | 0.302575 | 0.074860 | 0.024564 |
Macroeconomic synchronous index | 0.217396 | −0.052696 | 0.661712 | 0.340521 |
macroeconomic leading index | −0.135250 | 0.119046 | 0.716322 | 0.201954 |
macroeconomic lagging index | 0.530687 | 0.033238 | 0.189193 | 0.153411 |
Consumer confidence index | 0.146684 | 0.035416 | −0.010279 | 0.988496 |
Consumer satisfaction index | −0.123909 | 0.134376 | −0.036204 | 0.917844 |
Consumer expectation index | 0.304411 | −0.038025 | 0.006552 | 0.924773 |
CPI | 0.773709 | 0.119858 | −0.178229 | −0.162460 |
RPI | 0.797679 | 0.034894 | −0.120007 | −0.143251 |
PPI | 0.781372 | −0.255452 | 0.199066 | 0.267836 |
PPIRM | 0.778184 | −0.260911 | 0.222578 | 0.233968 |
CGPI | 0.840722 | −0.101766 | 0.235037 | 0.223997 |
CGPI (agri-products) | 0.607627 | 0.194669 | 0.098343 | −0.216609 |
Agri-production material price index | 0.623043 | −0.098576 | −0.258128 | −0.308199 |
Export price index (total index) | 0.743945 | −0.103913 | −0.254465 | −0.058635 |
Import price index (total index) | 0.799836 | −0.204570 | 0.177887 | 0.197702 |
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Variables | Units | Mean | Max | Min | Std. Dev. | Data Source |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Primary agri-products purchase price | % | 103.164 | 119.800 | 94.200 | 5.282 | Data from the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics |
Sales price of food enterprise | % | 102.383 | 114.000 | 96.300 | 3.547 | |
Food consumption price | % | 105.763 | 123.300 | 95.600 | 5.739 | |
Production value of primary agri-products | % | 3554.244 | 9234.000 | 338.909 | 2119.046 | |
Production value of food industry | 108 CNY | 6667.228 | 12,616.400 | 1332.065 | 2975.821 | |
Profit margin of food industry | % | 5.365 | 11.014 | 3.236 | 1.215 | |
Food retail | 108 CNY | 763.172 | 1902.720 | 137.600 | 466.990 | |
Primary agri-products export | 108 CNY | 45.507 | 97.041 | 25.690 | 14.337 | Data from the China Customs Database |
Primary agri-products import | 108 CNY | 203.113 | 419.828 | 36.411 | 92.870 | |
Food products export | 108 CNY | 33.555 | 67.762 | 10.560 | 12.783 | |
Food products import | 108 CNY | 33.278 | 81.089 | 5.680 | 17.919 | |
Public health emergencies | person | 1296.661 | 3755.000 | 370.000 | 510.675 | Data from the NHC of the People’s Republic of China |
Disaster emergencies | 104 person | 610.0386 | 14,011.69 | 0.000 | 1663.497 | Data from the EM-DAT Database |
Industrial added value | % | 10.391 | 29.200 | −25.867 | 5.970 | Data from the Wind Database |
Public finance revenue | 108 CNY | 6979.638 | 16,055.720 | 1928.032 | 3014.549 | |
Public finance expenditure | 108 CNY | 7903.190 | 21,132.330 | 1388.390 | 4582.977 | |
Total investment in fixed assets | 108 CNY | 22,340.870 | 54,355.990 | 2962.435 | 13,122.510 | |
Investment in fixed assets (primary industry) | 108 CNY | 569.680 | 2025.149 | 2.955 | 487.782 | |
Investment in fixed assets (secondary industry) | 108 CNY | 8776.423 | 20,283.590 | 976.327 | 4908.527 | |
Investment in fixed assets (tertiary industry) | 108 CNY | 12,995.440 | 35,073.990 | 1870.539 | 8027.910 | |
Total retail sales of consumer goods | 108 CNY | 17,946.700 | 38,776.700 | 4663.300 | 9814.165 | |
M0 | 108 CNY | 37,630.290 | 59,745.760 | 19,543.270 | 10,163.590 | |
M1 | 108 CNY | 227,324.900 | 383,947.900 | 87,493.670 | 91,109.360 | |
M2 | 108 CNY | 738,079.400 | 1,356,420.000 | 244,487.800 | 340,520.100 | |
Net foreign assets | 108 CNY | 217,014.400 | 294,660.200 | 56,902.350 | 71,223.260 | |
Domestic credit | 108 CNY | 962,760.900 | 2,351,762.000 | 226,979.400 | 638,215.500 | |
Financial institutions (various loan balances) | 108 CNY | 706,143.300 | 1,651,999.000 | 181,083.000 | 425,656.300 | |
Financial institutions (new loans) | 108 CNY | 5861.137 | 21,587.960 | 158.835 | 3697.832 | |
Foreign exchange reserves | 108 CNY | 131,456.300 | 178,312.700 | 49,082.990 | 34,057.340 | |
Treasury bonds purchased by foreign investors | 108 CNY | 966.227 | 2745.323 | 188.598 | 475.382 | |
Social financing scale | 108 CNY | 9388.996 | 32,997.260 | 2.771 | 5890.928 | |
New added CNY loan | 108 CNY | 7976.525 | 35,668.360 | −314.000 | 5762.006 | |
New added foreign currency loan | 108 CNY | 177.642 | 2542.000 | −2344.000 | 645.705 | |
Real effective exchange rate index of CNY | % | 108.644 | 130.930 | 82.390 | 14.853 | |
Nominal effective exchange rate index of CNY | % | 106.466 | 126.540 | 83.950 | 11.929 | |
Average exchange rate of USD to CNY | — | 6.844 | 8.277 | 6.104 | 0.610 | |
Average exchange rate of EUR to CNY | — | 8.655 | 11.037 | 6.626 | 1.168 | |
Average exchange rate of HKD to CNY | — | 0.880 | 1.064 | 0.787 | 0.078 | |
Demand deposit rate | % | 0.457 | 0.810 | 0.350 | 0.162 | |
Time deposit rate (1 year) | % | 2.424 | 4.140 | 1.500 | 0.798 | |
Time deposit rate (2 year) | % | 3.050 | 4.680 | 2.100 | 0.854 | |
Time deposit rate (3year) | % | 3.652 | 5.400 | 2.750 | 0.849 | |
Short-term loan rate (6 months) | % | 5.169 | 6.570 | 4.350 | 0.691 | |
Medium and long-term loan rate (1–3 years) | % | 5.714 | 7.560 | 4.750 | 0.832 | |
USD deposit rate: within 3 months | % | 2.058 | 4.811 | 0.320 | 1.252 | |
USD deposit rate (3–6 months) | % | 2.598 | 5.400 | 0.570 | 1.323 | |
USD deposit rate (6–12 months) | % | 2.814 | 5.890 | 0.740 | 1.245 | |
USD deposit rate (1 year) | % | 3.086 | 7.110 | 1.180 | 1.256 | |
Foreign direct investment | 108 CNY | 89.959 | 187.800 | 38.700 | 29.336 | |
Export volume index (total index) | % | 109.364 | 154.200 | 76.100 | 14.028 | |
Import volume index (total index) | % | 107.976 | 163.500 | 63.700 | 11.801 | |
Export price index (total index) | % | 102.281 | 111.900 | 90.700 | 4.576 | |
Import price index (total index) | % | 102.364 | 122.700 | 79.600 | 9.471 | |
Listed companies (total market capitalization) | 108 CNY | 222,420.000 | 446,901.700 | 29,289.820 | 112,153.500 | |
Listed companies (circulating market value) | 108 CNY | 160,237.200 | 412,054.600 | 9156.037 | 103,610.100 | |
Domestic listed companies (total equity) | 108 CNY | 38,257.570 | 71,852.640 | 7151.950 | 18,709.630 | |
Stock business volume | 108 CNY | 46,140.270 | 258,418.300 | 1371.614 | 41,122.770 | |
Stock trading volume | 108 shares | 5400.305 | 20,462.790 | 305.410 | 4294.477 | |
Financing amount (total domestic and overseas) | 108 CNY | 1065.552 | 4157.350 | 0.763 | 966.994 | |
Business volume of securities invested fund | 108 CNY | 724.977 | 10,080.260 | 13.341 | 1300.519 | |
Business volume of futures (national) | 108 CNY | 120,079.000 | 694,460.100 | 5028.965 | 99,941.170 | |
Business volume of futures (Dalian) | 108 CNY | 22,961.500 | 64,644.090 | 1268.152 | 13,234.480 | |
Business volume of futures (Shanghai) | 108 CNY | 37,594.110 | 106,166.400 | 2663.333 | 21,873.080 | |
Business volume of futures (Zhengzhou) | 108 CNY | 15,202.100 | 97,506.910 | 1097.479 | 11,964.630 | |
Macroeconomic synchronous index | % | 99.410 | 104.700 | 82.685 | 3.874 | |
Macroeconomic leading index | % | 101.428 | 105.900 | 95.564 | 2.153 | |
Macroeconomic lagging index | % | 97.165 | 103.000 | 89.500 | 3.055 | |
Consumer confidence index | % | 109.125 | 126.600 | 97.000 | 7.409 | |
Consumer satisfaction index | % | 105.578 | 121.000 | 90.000 | 7.567 | |
Consumer expectation index | % | 111.469 | 130.700 | 99.000 | 7.810 | |
CPI | % | 2.659 | 8.700 | −1.800 | 1.908 | |
RPI | % | 1.921 | 8.100 | −2.500 | 2.007 | |
PPI | % | 1.334 | 10.060 | −8.200 | 4.362 | |
PPIRM | % | 2.337 | 15.390 | −11.680 | 6.248 | |
CGPI | % | 101.457 | 110.300 | 92.000 | 4.837 | |
CGPI (agri-products) | % | 104.588 | 120.200 | 94.400 | 6.221 | |
Agri-production material price index | % | 4.452 | 24.800 | −7.513 | 6.073 |
Variable Name | Symbol | Test Type (C,T,L) | ADF-Statistic | 1% Critical-Value | 5% Critical-Value | p-Value |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Primary agri-products purchase price | PAPP | (C,0,4) | −3.7879 | −3.4666 | −2.8774 | 0.0036 *** |
Sales price of food enterprise | SPFE | (C,0,4) | −3.5953 | −3.4666 | −2.8774 | 0.0067 *** |
Food consumption price | FCP | (C,0,4) | −3.0987 | −3.4666 | −2.8774 | 0.0284 ** |
Primary agri-products export | PAE | (C,0,4) | −3.8366 | −3.4665 | −2.8773 | 0.0031 *** |
Primary agri-products import | PAI | (C,0,4) | −3.5978 | −3.4665 | −2.8773 | 0.0067 *** |
Production value of primary agri-products | PVPA | (C,T,0) | −5.2568 | −4.0084 | −3.4343 | 0.0001 *** |
Production value of food industry | PVFI | (C,T,0) | −5.6640 | −4.0084 | −3.4343 | 0.0000 *** |
Profit margin of food industry | PMFI | (C,T,0) | −8.1105 | −4.0084 | −3.4343 | 0.0000 *** |
Food retail | FR | (C,T,0) | −8.4175 | −4.0084 | −3.4343 | 0.0000 *** |
Food products export | FPE | (C,T,0) | −5.2731 | −4.0084 | −3.4343 | 0.0001 *** |
Food products import | FPI | (C,T,0) | −5.0751 | −4.0084 | −3.4343 | 0.0002 *** |
Public health emergencies | PHE | (C,T,0) | −10.0659 | −4.0084 | −3.4343 | 0.0000 *** |
Disaster emergencies | DE | (C,T,0) | −12.7806 | −4.0084 | −3.4343 | 0.0000 *** |
Interest rate uncertainty factor | IRU | (0,0,4) | −3.9302 | −2.5779 | −1.9426 | 0.0001 *** |
Financial uncertainty factor | FU | (0,0,4) | −2.5491 | −2.5779 | −1.9426 | 0.0108 ** |
Social development uncertainty factor | SDU | (0,0,4) | −3.4806 | −2.5779 | −1.9426 | 0.0006 *** |
Consumption uncertainty factor | CU | (0,0,4) | −3.1611 | −2.5779 | −1.9426 | 0.0017 *** |
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Li, J.; Song, Z. Dynamic Impacts of External Uncertainties on the Stability of the Food Supply Chain: Evidence from China. Foods 2022, 11, 2552. https://doi.org/10.3390/foods11172552
Li J, Song Z. Dynamic Impacts of External Uncertainties on the Stability of the Food Supply Chain: Evidence from China. Foods. 2022; 11(17):2552. https://doi.org/10.3390/foods11172552
Chicago/Turabian StyleLi, Jingdong, and Zhouying Song. 2022. "Dynamic Impacts of External Uncertainties on the Stability of the Food Supply Chain: Evidence from China" Foods 11, no. 17: 2552. https://doi.org/10.3390/foods11172552