A Mechanistic-Data-Integrated Model for Casing Sticking Prediction and Design Optimization

Early prediction of casing-running sticking is essential, as the mitigation of stuck-pipe incidents often incurs significant time and economic costs. Previous studies have largely relied on purely theoretical torque and drag models that are constrained by simplified assumptions, preventing them from fully leveraging available field data and often leading to insufficient prediction accuracy. To address this challenge, we developed a hybrid mechanistic-data-driven intelligent model for hook-load prediction and casing-sticking risk assessment. The model combines mechanical models with ensemble learning algorithms, incorporating both mechanically derived parameters (theoretical hook load, casing–borehole compatibility, casing-bottom deflection and tilt angle) as well as operational and casing structural features. To evaluate its cross-field generalizability, the proposed model was trained on 13,449 samples from 14 wells across three oilfields and tested on 3961 samples from an independent well in a separate Oilfield. Three ensemble algorithms (XGBoost, Random Forest, and LightGBM) were evaluated, among which XGBoost achieved the highest predictive accuracy (RMSE = 3.50, MAE = 2.51, R² = 0.97) and was selected for subsequent friction-factor-based casing sticking risk assessment. A genetic-algorithm-based optimization framework was further developed to minimize sticking risk by optimizing the centralizer configuration under a friction constraint. The proposed sticking-risk assessment and optimization strategy was validated through field implementation. This mechanistic-data-driven intelligent model outperforms traditional theoretical approaches in predictive accuracy, interpretability, and engineering applicability, providing a practical and explainable tool for casing-running risk mitigation and design optimization in complex three-dimensional wells.