Abstract
The study investigates and analyzes certain qualitative properties of a stochastic dynamical multiscale model for hepatitis B viral infection. By formulating appropriate stochastic Lyapunov functions, the study derives sufficient conditions for the existence and uniqueness of an ergodic stationary distribution of the positive solutions of the multiscale model. Additionally, the study establishes conditions under which the virus can be eradicated from the population. The findings indicate that low-intensity white noise guarantees a unique ergodic stationary distribution, while higher noise levels can result in viral extinction.
Keywords:
randomness; filtration; ergodic stationary distribution; positive solution; virus eradication; stochastic Lyapunov function MSC:
37A30; 37A50
1. Introduction
Viral infections propagate by overcoming multiple biological barriers and transitioning across different levels of biological organization. Hepatitis B virus targets hepatocytes, the main functional cells of the liver, causing both acute and chronic diseases []. Some studies [,,,,] have conducted research on viral hepatitis and multiscale modeling of infectious diseases. However, stochastic modeling plays a crucial role in capturing the inherent randomness and uncertainty in such processes by incorporating probabilistic elements, thereby providing a more realistic representation of real world dynamics. Since real-life biological phenomena involve intrinsic variability and stochasticity, stochastic models, especially those that account for random viral contacts during latent and infectious periods, are considered to comprise a more appropriate modeling framework. It is well established that biological systems are influenced by ambient white noise []. Despite the extensive scientific research on the dynamics of hepatic viral infections, previous studies have primarily employed ordinary differential equations (ODEs). While ODE models offer a useful approximation of average system behavior, the models inherently assume continuous and deterministic evolution of populations. As a result, ODE models fail to capture critical stochastic phenomena such as extinction events and rare events that drive transitions between disease states. It is noteworthy that stochastic models can account for these probabilistic outcomes, particularly in systems with low copy numbers of virions or infected cells, where random fluctuations significantly influence the overall dynamics. As such, incorporating stochasticity allows for a more comprehensive and accurate representation of HBV dynamics, particularly during the early stages of infection or under therapeutic interventions where population sizes may be small [].
As a result, this study presents a stochastic differential equation (SDE) formulation of a simplified nested multiscale model at the cellular level, serving as a modification of the model system (2.8) proposed in []. The reasons for adopting stochastic modeling in the study of hepatic viral infection include biological complexity at the cellular level, specifically the presence of surface receptors on infected cells that mediate the entry and release of nucleocapsids into the cytoplasm. Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) allow for the representation of such systems by generating a distribution of possible outcomes, in contrast to deterministic models, which yield a single expected trajectory. This approach is significant because it examines how noise affects the simplified nested multiscale model system (2.8) presented in []. Furthermore, this study incorporates stochastic parameters into the model system (2.8) from [] and analyzes the resulting stochastic version of the modified mathematical model. Various techniques exist for introducing stochasticity into a system; here, we adopt the approach of parameter perturbation using white noise. This noise is assumed to be proportional to the state variables’ susceptible cells , infected cells , and community viral load , and it influences the corresponding derivatives, , and . The stochastic system is formulated as shown in model system (1):
The stochastic nested multiscale model (1) can be simplified as presented in model system (2.8) of [], where is a composite parameter used to upscale the within-cell parameters to the between-cell parameters and variables. The simplified model is shown in Equation (2):
where are mutually independent standard Brownian motions defined on a complete probability space , a complete probability space with filtration , which is increasing and right-continuous. while contains all -null sets and denote the intensities of the white noises []. Let be scalar Brownian motions defined on a probability space. The importance of filtration tells us the information to be available at the future time . The main contribution and innovation is to study the impact of stochastic noise on the dynamics of the nested multiscale model at the cell level of biological organization. The paper is organized as follows. Section 2 presents the preliminaries necessary for the model description. In Section 3, we emphasize the existence and uniqueness of the global positive solution. Section 4 discusses the stationary distribution and ergodicity. Virus eradication is addressed in Section 5. Section 6 concludes the study.
2. Preliminaries for the Model Description
In this section, the study presents some known and useful results, including definitions, lemmas, theorems, and basic concepts related to stochastic processes, which are essential for analyzing system (2) [,,].
Let be a complete probability space equipped with a filtration that satisfies the usual conditions; that is, the filtration is increasing and right-continuous, and contains all sets. Consider the n-dimensional stochastic differential equations (SDEs)
with initial value (with ), and is the -dimensional standard Brownian motion defined on . Let be the family of all non-negative functions defined on such that is continuously twice-differentiable in and once in . Then, the differential operator of (3) is defined by
If acts on , then
where , and .
By applying Itô’s formula, as demonstrated in [,], for , we obtain
The subsequent notations are also presented:
and , , where is an integrable function.
Definition 1.
If the transition probability function is time-homogeneous, meaning that the function is independent of , where and denotes the -algebra of Borel sets in , then the corresponding Markov process is also called time-homogeneous.
Let be a regular time-homogeneous Markov process in a -dimensional Euclidean space, , described by the following SDE:
The diffusion matrix is defined as
Then, we have the following result, as demonstrated in []:
Lemma 1.
The Markov process possesses a unique ergodic stationary distribution if there exists a bounded open domain with a smooth boundary , characterized by the following properties:
Ellipticity condition (): For all and , there exists a positive number such that the diffusion matrix is strictly positive-definite, meaning that
Lyapunov condition (): there exists a non-negative - function such that is negative for any .
Lemma 2.
Let be the solution to the model (2) with value . Then, a.s. Moreover, , , a.s.
Lemma 3.
Assume that . Let be the solution to the model (1.2) with value . Then, , ,
3. Existence and Uniqueness of Global Positive Solutions
To analyze the dynamical behavior of system (2), it is essential to first verify that the system admits a positive and global solution. Since the model variables represent subpopulations, it is biologically reasonable to require that their values remain positive for all time. A key preliminary result is the existence and uniqueness of such a global positive solution, which serves as a foundational requirement for studying the system’s long-term behavior.
Theorem 1.
For any initial value , there is a unique positive solution of system (1.2) on , and the solution will remain in with probability one almost surely .
Proof.
Since the coefficients of (2) satisfy the local Lipschitz condition, there exists a unique local solution for any value . on , with the explosion time denoted by . For this solution to be global, it is expected that Let be sufficiently large such that and all lie within the interval . For each integer , the following is defined as stopping time:
With denoting the empty set as usual, we set . It is obvious that is increasing as . Then, two statements can be proven to hold
Firstly, let so that Next, there is the need to prove that so that for . If this claim is untrue, then is true for two constants, and . Hence, there is an integer such that
Define a - function by
where is the constant that will be found later. From , it is evident that this function is non-negative.
Applying Itô’s formula to along the trajectories of the system, this is obtained as follows:
where is defined by
where is a positive constant. Hence,
Taking the expectation and integrating both sides of (6) from to yields
Hence,
Now, let for , and, according to (5), there is . Since for every there exists or or = or , it follows that is no less than either
Thus,
It also follows from (7) that
where stands for indicator function of . Letting leads to contradiction
Hence, it must have The proof is now concluded. The solution is globally positive
4. Stationary Distribution and Ergodicity (Virus Persistence)
In deterministic systems, the long-term behavior is typically addressed by demonstrating that the endemic equilibrium of the model is either a global attractor or globally asymptotically stable. However, in the stochastic system (2), an endemic equilibrium does not exist. Instead, it is shown that a stationary distribution exists under specific conditions related to the reproduction number and model parameters. This implies that the disease will persist in the population, as discussed in []. The criteria established in this section guarantee the existence and uniqueness of an ergodic stationary distribution for system (2), indicating that the viral load will be sustained over time. The following theorem formalizes this result.
Theorem 2.
For any initial value , the system (2) has a unique ergodic stationary distribution if and only if .
Proof.
To prove the theorem above, it is necessary to ensure that both conditions stated in Lemma 1 are satisfied. The first condition requires that the system (2) be expressed in matrix form, which is given as follows:
The diffusion matrix of the system (2) is given as
Now, this outcome is chosen:
Hence, there is
where and . Therefore, the condition in Lemma 1 holds.
To verify the second condition () in Lemma 1, we first derive the stochastic reproduction number and subsequently prove that condition holds. □
4.1. Reproduction Number for Stochastic Model
The stochastic reproduction number is defined as the average number of new infections generated by one infected individual introduced into a fully susceptible population considering the effects of stochastic perturbations such as white noise, demographic randomness, and so on. In this subsection, Itô’s formula is applied with a twice-differentiable function, choosing , to obtain the reproduction number for the stochastic system. The associated Taylor series expansion is expressed as
It must also be noted that
So, system (2) becomes
By applying the next-generation matrix approach [] to Equation (9), the stochastic reproduction number was derived as follows:
Then, stochastic reproduction number denoted as is given below:
Substituting the expression for , derived in Appendix A, into the reproduction number of the multiscale model in Equation (10) yields the following result:
4.2. The Second Condition of Lemma 1
It is necessary to construct a - function as follows:
It is important to note that is not only continuous but also approaches infinity as approaches the boundary of . Since it must be bounded from below, it does so at a point in the interior of called . We now construct in the form
where , , , , , where is a sufficiently small constant satisfying and , in are the positive constants to be determined. Also, each is uniquely obtained, and is sufficiently large number satisfying the following condition:
Applying the Itô lemma to , the following was obtained:
The first three terms can be rewritten by applying the fact that for all .
This condition was chosen such that
and then was obtained, and . Hence,
where
Next, we arrived at the following:
where
Therefore, applying (13)–(17), we have
where
where is defined as
Recall that, as stated in Equation (12), the matrix must satisfy the condition . Now, we construct a compact subset such that Lemma 1 holds for . The following was how a bounded closed set was defined:
where is a sufficiently small number. Then, in , this was chosen such that
where is a constant that needs to be determined below. To fulfill the requirement of condition of Lemma 1, can be divided into seven (7) domains as follows:
Clearly,
The next step is to demonstrate that, for each , . This is equal to demonstrating it on the aforementioned seven (7) domains, respectively.
- Case 1: For any , by (18), we obtainwhich follows from (19) and
- Case 2: For any , by (18), this was obtained as follows:which follows from (12) and (20).
Case 3: For any , by (18), this result was obtained as follows:
which follows from (21) and (26).
Case 4: For any , by (18), this was obtained as follows:
which follows from (22) and (26).
Case 5: For any , by (18), this result was obtained as follows:
which follows from (23) and (26).
Case 6: For any , by (18), the result obtained was
which follows from (23) and (26).
Case 7: For any , by (18), it was obtained that
which follows from (24) and (26).
Evidently, for every , it has been demonstrated in (25) and (27)–(32) that, for sufficiently small ,
Hence, condition in Lemma 1 is satisfied.
By invoking this lemma, the study confirms the existence of a unique stationary distribution for the multiscale system (2). When and the system possesses the ergodic property characterized by the invariant measure , it indicates that the virus persists under stochastic influences. Importantly, the stochastic reproduction number matches the control reproduction number of the deterministic model (Equation (3.5) in []), denoted , when white noise effects are absent, i.e., for , at the between-cell scale. These findings not only extend the conclusions of the deterministic multiscale model (system (2.8) in []) but also enhance and solidify the theoretical understanding of stationary distribution existence in the stochastic nested multiscale framework. Specifically, when , the deterministic model (system (2.8)) admits a unique endemic equilibrium, thereby ensuring virus persistence. Furthermore, the expression for the stochastic version of the within-cell viral load, (derived in Appendix A), coincides with its deterministic counterpart in [] when white noise is excluded, that is, when for . Consequently, the stochastic reproduction number of the within-cell model, , also coincides with the reproduction number of the deterministic within-cell model. Additionally, the intensities of the white noise directly modulate all threshold parameters in the between-cell scale models, thereby influencing the system’s dynamics under stochastic perturbations.
5. Virus Eradication or Extinction
The primary motivation for formulating mathematical models of infectious disease systems is to understand and regulate disease dynamics, ultimately enabling effective control and eventual eradication over time. Meanwhile, this study has reformulated the nested multiscale model of hepatitis B virus (HBV) into a stochastic version by incorporating white noise at both the within-cell and between-cell levels. In this section, we focus on establishing sufficient conditions for the eradication or extinction of the virus. Specifically, we identify the disease-free state of the stochastic system (2) and derive the conditions under which viral extinction occurs. The proof of the main result relies on the findings presented in Lemmas 2 and 3, which are used to establish the key theorem in this section.
Theorem 3.
Let be the solution to the model (2) with value . If and ; then, the virus will die out exponentially with probability one, that is, , with
Proof.
Integrating from to and dividing by yields the following result:
Applying the superior limits and invoking Lemma 3, it follows that
This implies that and
By the first equation of system (2), this was obtained as follows:
Evaluating the rate of change of in (2),
By ergodic theorem [], the result was
It follows from Lemmas 2 and 3 that
- Next, this was defined as follows:
Theorem 3 establishes that the stochastic nested multiscale model represented by Equation (2) predicts the possibility of virus extinction or eradication under certain conditions. Central to this result is the threshold parameter , which serves as a critical indicator for determining whether the hepatitis B virus will persist or be eliminated from the host population. Notably, this threshold does not depend on the within-cell viral load denoted by . The parameter is a composite term that encapsulates the within-cell viral dynamics and serves as a bridge between the microscopic (within-cell) and macroscopic (between-cell) scales. Specifically, it quantifies the effective viral output from infected cells to the extracellular environment, thereby contributing to the community-level viral load through shedding or excretion processes. Despite its biological relevance in the overall disease transmission dynamics, does not directly influence the condition for eradication as defined by . This implies that the stochastic extinction of the virus, as dictated by Theorem 3, is governed by factors that are independent of the intracellular viral replication and instead are determined by parameters at the population- or between-cell level. In essence, as long as the condition is satisfied, the model predicts that the hepatitis B virus will be eradicated from the system regardless of the magnitude of the within-cell viral load . For an in-depth explanation of the model structure, parameter definitions, and multiscale modeling framework used to analyze hepatitis B virus infection, readers are referred to []. This source provides comprehensive insights into how within-cell processes are integrated into the between-cell transmission dynamics through composite parameters like , and how these contribute to the overall understanding of disease progression and control strategies.
6. Conclusions
This study advances the stochastic multiscale to investigate the dynamic behavior of hepatitis B viral infection. By implication, this study constructs a suitable stochastic Lyapunov function, which provides sufficient conditions for the existence of a unique ergodic stationary distribution of the positive solution to model system (2). Furthermore, the study establishes sufficient conditions for the extinction of the virus at the cellular level of biological organization. It should be noted that threshold parameters , which determines the existence of an ergodic stationary distribution, and , which characterizes the condition for virus eradication, are not reproduction numbers in the classical sense. Specifically, they do not correspond to the basic reproduction number typically derived in deterministic nonlinear ordinary differential equation (ODE) models used in the nested multiscale model presented in []. Instead, these thresholds arise from the stochastic analysis of system (2) and serve distinct roles in describing the system’s long-term behavior under random perturbations. The results show that a distinct ergodic stationary distribution (indicative of viral persistence) can be guaranteed under lower levels of white noise. Conversely, higher levels of white noise may lead to the extinction of the virus. The analytical findings reveal that, while the condition for disease persistence depends on the composite parameter , the condition for disease eradication does not. This indicates that plays a significant role in shaping the overall dynamics of the model system. This study focused on developing an analytical solution for a stochastic nested multiscale model describing hepatitis B viral infections, capturing the complex interactions between within-cell viral replication dynamics and between-cell transmission processes under random environmental fluctuations. The model framework provides a rigorous mathematical basis for understanding how stochastic effects influence key epidemiological thresholds, such as the reproduction number, and the long-term behavior of the infection, including persistence or eradication scenarios. In future research, the scope will be broadened to integrate the effects of medical interventions into the model. These will include treatment strategies such as Direct-Acting Antivirals (DAAs), which target specific stages of the viral life cycle to suppress replication, as well as preventive measures like vaccination and enhanced public health initiatives aimed at reducing transmission rates. The extended model will also account for varying levels of treatment adherence, drug resistance development, and the potential synergistic effects of combining therapies with preventive approaches. To complement the analytical results, numerical simulations will be performed to assess the robustness of the theoretical predictions under a wide range of parameter values and stochastic intensities. These simulations will serve as a validation tool, allowing for comparison between predicted and simulated infection dynamics, and will provide deeper insights into optimal intervention strategies for controlling and ultimately eradicating hepatitis B in both deterministic and stochastic settings.
Author Contributions
Funding acquisition, K.M.; writing—original draft preparation, O.T.O.; writing—review and editing, W.G.; conceptualization, O.T.O.; supervision, W.G. and K.M.; validation, K.M.; formal analysis, O.T.O. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.
Funding
The authors acknowledge the financial support of the South African National Research Foundation (NRF), Grant No. IPRR (UID 81235).
Data Availability Statement
The original contributions presented in the study are included in the article, further inquiries can be directed to the corresponding author.
Acknowledgments
The authors wish to acknowledge the financial support from University of Venda and Sol Plaatje University.
Conflicts of Interest
The authors declare no conflicts of interest.
Abbreviations
The following abbreviations are used in this manuscript:
| Recruitment rate of rcDNA | |
| Reaction rate of DNA repair | |
| Degradation rate of rcDNA | |
| Degradation rate of cccDNA | |
| Recycling rate of rcDNA | |
| Transcription rate of DNA to RNA code | |
| Transcription rate of mRNA | |
| Association rate of RNP and core protein | |
| Translation rate of mRNAs | |
| Degradation rate of mRNAs | |
| Shedding rate of complete virions | |
| Shedding rate of incomplete particles | |
| Viral burst size of complete virions | |
| Viral burst size of incomplete particles | |
| Recruitment rate of cell | |
| Transmission rate | |
| Natural death rate | |
| Virus-induced death rate | |
| Viral clearance rate |
Appendix A
It should be noted that is the within-cell viral load, which is a composite parameter required to calculate the stochastic reproduction number of the within-cell model sub-system (1). The stochastic version of model the sub-system (1) can be expressed as follows:
The mutually independent standard Brownian motions are denoted by , where denote the intensities of the . The reproduction numbers of the stochastic system are provided by utilizing Itô’s formula’s twice-differentiable function, as stated in (8), and the Taylor series expansion is as follows:
Applying the next-generation matrix method in (A1), the stochastic reproduction number was derived as follows:
where
Then, the stochastic reproduction number denoted as is given below:
, which is a composite parameter in the third equation of the system (2) that upscales the within-cell submodel to the between-cell submodel and the quasi-endemic equilibrium point , which the following equations determine as follows:
The endemic values of the within-cell variables are derived as
where
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