Abstract
This paper concentrates on the general birth–death processes with two different types of catastrophes. The Laplace transform of transition probability function for birth–death processes with two-type catastrophes is successfully expressed with the Laplace transform of transition probability function of the birth–death processes without catastrophe. The first effective catastrophe occurrence time is considered. The Laplace transform of its probability density function, expectation and variance are obtained.
MSC:
60J27; 60J35
1. Introduction
The Markov process is a very important branch of stochastic processes that has a very wide range of applications. Standard references are Anderson [], Asmussen [], Chen [] and others.
The birth–death process, as a very important class of Markov processes, has been widely applied in finance, communications, population science and queueing theory. In the past few decades, there have been many works on generalizing the ordinary birth–death process, making the theory of birth–death processes more and more fruitful. Recently, the stochastic models with catastrophe have aroused much research interest. For example, Chen Zhang and Liu [], Economou and Fakinos [] and Pakes [] considered the instantaneous distribution of continuous-time Markov chains with catastrophes. Chen and Renshaw [,] analyzed the effect of catastrophes on the queuing model. Zhang and Li [] extended these results to the queuing model with catastrophes. Li and Zhang [] further considered the effect of catastrophes on the queuing model. Di Crescenzo et al. [] discussed the probability distribution and the relevant numerical characteristics of the first occurrence time of an effective disaster for a general birth–death process with catastrophes. Other related works can be found in Artalejo [], Bayer and Boxma [], Chen, Pollett, Li and Zhang [], Dudin and Karolik [], Gelenbe [], Gelenbe, Glynn and Sigman [], Jain and Sigman [], Zeifman and Korotysheva [] and many others.
The models considered in the above references involve only one type of catastrophe. However, in real situations, there may be multiple types of catastrophes involved in a stochastic model. For example, earthquakes and fires have a huge influence on a biological population. Wars and epidemics affect population in a country. In general, different catastrophes may have completely different effects. Therefore, a natural and important problem is considering the first occurrence time of an effective catastrophe (including different types of catastrophes) and determiniing the type of the first effective catastrophe.
The purpose of this paper is to consider the general birth–death processes with two-type catastrophes. We mainly discuss the property of the first occurrence time of effective catastrophe and the type of the first effective catastrophe.
We start our discussion by presenting the infinitesimal generator, i.e., the so-called q-matrix.
Definition 1.
Let be a continuous-time Markov chain on state space , if its q-matrix is given by
where and are given by
and
with and , respectively.
Then, is called a birth–death processes with two-type catastrophes. Its probability transition function is denoted by and the corresponding resolvent is denoted by .
Remark 1.
By Definition 1, α and β describe the rates of catastrophes. We call them α-catastrophe and β-catastrophe, respectively. That is, α-catastrophe kills all the individuals in the system, while β-catastrophe partially kills the individuals in the system with only one individual left. If , i.e., there is no catastrophe, then degenerates into an ordinary birth–death process, which is denoted by , and its q-matrix is denoted by . The probability transition function of is denoted by and the corresponding resolvent is denoted by .
The rest of this paper is organized as follows. In the following Section 2, we reveal the relationship of the transition probability of and the transition probability of in Laplace transform version (Theorem 1). In Section 3, the first occurrence time of an effective catastrophe is discussed. We first construct a new process, , which coincides with until the occurrence of catastrophe and can distinguish what type of catastrophe occurs, and then reveal the relationship of the transition probability of and the transition probability of ) in Laplace transform version (Theorems 2 and 3). Finally, we obtain the probability distribution of the first occurrence time of an effective catastrophe in a Laplace transform version and the probabilities of the first effective catastrophe being of the -type or the -type.
2. Probability Transition Function
From Definition 1, we see that a catastrophe may reduce the system state to zero or one. However, since natural death rate , when the system state transfers to zero from one or transfers to one from two, it is difficult to distinguish whether it was a catastrophe or a natural death. Therefore, it is important to discuss such effective catastrophe. For this purpose, we first construct the relationship of and (or, equivalently, and ).
The following lemma presents the basic properties of (or ) and (or ).
Lemma 1.
(i) satisfies the following Kolmogorov forward equations: for any and ,
or equivalently, in the resolvent version
(ii) satisfies the following Kolmogorov forward equations: for any and ,
or, equivalently, in the resolvent version
Proof.
(i) By Kolmogorov forward equations and the honesty of , we know that
and
The other equalities of (i) and (ii) follow directly from Kolmogorov forward equations and the Laplace transform. The proof is complete. □
The following theorem plays an important role in later discussion. It reveals the relationship of and (or, equivalently, and ).
Theorem 1.
For any , we have
or, equivalently, in the resolvent version
Proof.
We first assume . The corresponding process is denoted by and its probability transition function is denoted by . Denote . Let be a Poisson process with parameter , which is independent of . Note that can be viewed as a catastrophe flow. We let be the time until the first catastrophe before time t. Then, has the truncated exponential law,
We denote . We let be an independent sequence of copies of but with . We define by
Then, is a continuous-time Markov chain. It evolves like . At the first catastrophe time, it jumps to State 1, and then evolves like . At the next catastrophe time, it jumps to State 1 again, and so on. We let be the probability transition function of . Then,
where and is the mathematical expectation under . We denote for a moment. Then, the above equality equals to
Since and , we have
and
If , then
Therefore,
It is easy to check that . This implies that and are same in the sense of distribution. Hence,
Now, we consider the general case of . Denote . Let be a Poisson process with parameter , which is independent of . can be viewed as a catastrophe flow with parameter . Let be the time until the first catastrophe before time t. Then, has the truncated exponential law
We denote . Let be an independent sequence of copies of but with . We define by
Let be the probability transition function of . By a similar argument as above, we know that
By (8),
It is easy to check that . This implies that and are same in sense of distribution. Hence,
Equation (6) is proven. Taking Laplace transform on (6) implies (7). The proof is complete. □
3. The First Occurrence Time of Effective Catastrophe
We now consider the first effective catastrophe of . We let be the first occurrence time of an effective catastrophe for starting from state j. The probability density function of is denoted by . We let and be the first occurrence time of an effective -catastrophe and an effective -catastrophe, respectively. It is obvious that .
In particular, if or , then or , respectively, and the current model deduces to the model discussed in Di Crescenzo et al. []. In this paper, we mainly consider the property of and probabilities and . For this purpose, we construct a new process, , such that coincides with until the occurrence of catastrophe, but enters into an absorbing state if the first effective catastrophe is a -type and enters into another absorbing state if the first effective catastrophe is an -type. Therefore, the state space of is and its q-matrix is given by
Different from Q, can reveal the different effects of different types of catastrophes. More specifically, an -catastrophe or a -catastrophe occur at state if and only if the system state jumps to or from , respectively. Since coincides with until the occurrence of catastrophe and both and are absorbing states for , we know that and the absorbing time of are same in the sense of distribution.
Let and be the -transition function and the -resolvent.
Lemma 2.
For any , we have
or, equivalently, in the resolvent version
Proof.
We now investigate the relationship of and . For this purpose, we define
and
The following theorem reveals that can be reexpressed with .
Theorem 2.
Let be the -resolvent and be the Q-resolvent. Then,
and
where
and
with being given by (7).
Proof.
We let
Substituting (22) into (18) and using (20), we have
Indeed, by the first equality of (18),
i.e.,
It follows from the first equality of (20) and the first equality of (21) that
By the second equality of (18),
i.e.,
It follows from the second equality of (20) and the second equality of (21) that
Therefore, (23) holds. It follows from (23) that
The other equalities of (18) also hold.
We let
Substituting (24) into (19) and using (21), we have
Indeed, by the second equality of (19),
i.e.,
It follows from the second equality of (20) and the second equality of (21) that
By the first equality of (19),
i.e.,
It follows from the first equality of (20) and the first equality of (21) that
Therefore, (25) holds. It follows from (25) that
The other equalities of (19) also hold.
By Theorem 1, we know that
Denote
Then, can be represented as
Hence, by some algebra, can be represented as
where , . Indeed,
which implies (33).
The following theorem further reveals that can be reexpressed with .
Theorem 3.
Let be the -resolvent and be the -resolvent. Then,
where
and
Proof.
By (11) and (12) and Theorem 1, we know that for any ,
Note that the right-hand sides of (16) and (17) are well defined. We can define and for . Hence, it follows from Theorem 2 that for any ,
and
Therefore, by some algebra, we can obtain
Similarly,
We now consider the probability distribution of and the related probabilities and . It is easy to see that is differentiable in t for . We let for . Also, we let denote the Laplace transform of for and denote the Laplace transform of .
The following theorem presents the probability distribution of in the Laplace transform version and the probability that the first effective catastrophe is an -type or a -type.
Theorem 4.
For any , we have
and
where and are given in Theorem 3. In particular,
where and are given by (34).
Proof.
By the definitions of and , we know that for any ,
and
Therefore, and . Hence,
and
The following theorem gives the mathematical expectation and the second moment of .
Theorem 5.
For any ,
and
where and are given by (34).
Proof.
By Theorem 4, we have
Differentiating the above equality yields
Let and note that . We have
Differentiating (37) yields
Let in the above equality yield
Therefore,
The proof is complete. □
Finally, if or , we obtain the following result which is due to Di Crescenzo et al. [].
Corollary 1.
(i) If , then for any ,
and
(ii) If , then for any ,
and
Proof.
If , by Theorem 3,
Therefore,
and
Hence, by Theorem 4,
and
(i) is proven. The proof of (ii) is similar. □
4. Summary
In this paper, we mainly considered the influence of two-type catastrophes in the general birth–death processes. We first revealed the relationship of transition probability of the process with catastrophe and transition probability of the process without catastrophe in the Laplace transform version. Then, we constructed a new process, , which coincides with until the occurrence of catastrophe and can distinguish what type the first effective catastrophe is when it occurs. By discussing the relationship of the transition probability of and the transition probability of the process with catastrophe, we established the relationship of the transition probability of and the transition probability of the process without catastrophe in the Laplace transform version. Finally, we obtained the probability distribution of the first occurrence time of an effective catastrophe in the Laplace transform version and the probabilities of that the first effective catastrophe is an -type or a -type. In particular, if or , we then obtained the results in Di Crescenzo et al. [].
Relevant to the model considered in this paper, there are some interesting and important problems. For example, we let denote the occurrence time of the n’th catastrophe. What is the probability distribution of ? And also, how do the multi-type catastrophes affect a branching system?
Funding
This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 11771452, No. 11971486).
Data Availability Statement
Data are contained within the article.
Conflicts of Interest
The authors declare no conflicts of interest.
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