Mapping Vulnerability of Cotton to Climate Change in West Africa: Challenges for Sustainable Development
Abstract
:1. Introduction
1.1. Climate Change and Sustainable Development in West Africa
1.2. Spatially Explicit Modeling of Climate Factors
1.3. Cotton, Climate, and Smallholder Income
2. Methods
2.1. Study Area
2.2. Model Selection and Cotton Data
2.3. Climate Data
2.4. Climate Variable Selection and Comparison
2.5. Suitability Classification
2.6. Comparison to Global Cotton-Growing Regions
3. Results
3.1. Model and Variable Selection
3.2. Change in Suitable Area
3.3. Comparison to Global Production Regions
4. Discussion
4.1. Projected Changes and Sustainable Development Goals
4.2. Model Selection and Uncertainty
4.3. Changing Importance of Precipitation and Temperature
4.4. SDGs and the Global Context of Adaptation
5. Conclusions
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Algorithm | Type | Abbreviation | AUC | TSS |
---|---|---|---|---|
Artificial neural network | machine learning | ANN | 0.81 | 0.125 |
Boosted regression tree | machine learning | BRT | 0.74 | 0.274 |
Maximum entropy | machine learning | Maxent | 0.87 | 0.601 |
Generalized additive model | statistical model | GAM | 0.85 | 0.582 |
Generalized linar model | statistical model | GLM | 0.81 | 0.548 |
Multiple adaptive regression spline | statistical model | MARS | 0.84 | 0.554 |
Variable | Definition, Units | Percent Contribution | Individual AUC |
---|---|---|---|
Bio 12 | Annual precipitation, mm | 57 | 0.79 |
Bio 4 | Temperature seasonality (std dev) | 21 | 0.77 |
Bio 18 | Precipitation of warmest quarter, mm | 17.8 | 0.78 |
Bio 10 | Mean temperature of warmest quarter, °C | 2.2 | 0.71 |
Bio 9 | Mean temperature of driest quarter, °C | 2 | 0.63 |
Country | Baseline | RCP4.5 | RCP8.5 |
---|---|---|---|
Côte d’Ivoire | 59.45 | 0.65 | 0.00 |
Benin | 51.42 | 1.07 | 0.00 |
Togo | 46.29 | 3.64 | 0.00 |
Nigeria | 43.38 | 30.17 | 20.17 |
South Sudan | 33.78 | 23.32 | 12.02 |
Cameroon | 26.86 | 11.02 | 4.87 |
Guinea | 24.56 | 11.13 | 5.57 |
Central African Republic | 22.99 | 17.30 | 9.03 |
Burkina Faso | 21.11 | 5.04 | 0.67 |
Gambia | 19.53 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Mali | 13.62 | 4.05 | 0.84 |
Ghana | 13.57 | 1.00 | 0.28 |
Chad | 9.20 | 1.15 | 0.01 |
Senegal | 6.45 | 0.67 | 0.00 |
Guinea-Bissau | 3.84 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
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Cunningham, M.A.; Wright, N.S.; Mort Ranta, P.B.; Benton, H.K.; Ragy, H.G.; Edington, C.J.; Kellner, C.A. Mapping Vulnerability of Cotton to Climate Change in West Africa: Challenges for Sustainable Development. Climate 2021, 9, 68. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli9040068
Cunningham MA, Wright NS, Mort Ranta PB, Benton HK, Ragy HG, Edington CJ, Kellner CA. Mapping Vulnerability of Cotton to Climate Change in West Africa: Challenges for Sustainable Development. Climate. 2021; 9(4):68. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli9040068
Chicago/Turabian StyleCunningham, Mary Ann, Nicholas S. Wright, Penelope B. Mort Ranta, Hannah K. Benton, Hassan G. Ragy, Christopher J. Edington, and Chloe A. Kellner. 2021. "Mapping Vulnerability of Cotton to Climate Change in West Africa: Challenges for Sustainable Development" Climate 9, no. 4: 68. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli9040068