Gains or Losses in Forest Productivity under Climate Change? The Uncertainty of CO2 Fertilization and Climate Effects
1
Forestry Economics and Forest Planning, Faculty of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Freiburg, 79106 Freiburg, Germany
2
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research—Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
3
Department d’Ecologia, Facultat de Biologia, Universitat de Barcelona, Diagonal 645, 08028 Barcelona, Spain
4
Ecological and Forestry Applications Research Centre (CREAF), Cerdanyola del Vallès, 08193 Barcelona, Spain
5
Department of Ecosystem Physiology, University of Freiburg, Georges-Koehler-Allee 53/54, 79110 Freiburg, Germany
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Climate 2020, 8(12), 141; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli8120141
Received: 2 November 2020 / Revised: 26 November 2020 / Accepted: 27 November 2020 / Published: 30 November 2020
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impacts of Climate Change on Forest Ecosystem Services and Forest Management)
Global warming poses great challenges for forest managers regarding adaptation strategies and species choices. More frequent drought events and heat spells are expected to reduce growth and increase mortality. Extended growing seasons, warming and elevated CO2 (eCO2) can also positively affect forest productivity. We studied the growth, productivity and mortality of beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) and fir (Abies alba Mill.) in the Black Forest (Germany) under three climate change scenarios (representative concentration pathways (RCP): RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) using the detailed biogeochemical forest growth model GOTILWA+. Averaged over the entire simulation period, both species showed productivity losses in RCP2.6 (16–20%) and in RCP4.5 (6%), but productivity gains in RCP8.5 (11–17%). However, all three scenarios had a tipping point (between 2035–2060) when initial gains in net primary productivity (NPP) (6–29%) eventually turned into losses (1–26%). With eCO2 switched off, the losses in NPP were 26–51% in RCP2.6, 36–45% in RCP4.5 and 33–71% in RCP8.5. Improved water-use efficiency dampened drought effects on NPP between 4 and 5%. Tree mortality increased, but without notably affecting forest productivity. Concluding, cultivation of beech and fir may still be possible in the study region, although severe productivity losses can be expected in the coming decades, which will strongly depend on the dampening CO2 fertilization effect.
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Keywords:
GOTILWA+; drought; forest growth simulation; CO2 fertilization; European beech; silver fir
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MDPI and ACS Style
Sperlich, D.; Nadal-Sala, D.; Gracia, C.; Kreuzwieser, J.; Hanewinkel, M.; Yousefpour, R. Gains or Losses in Forest Productivity under Climate Change? The Uncertainty of CO2 Fertilization and Climate Effects. Climate 2020, 8, 141.
AMA Style
Sperlich D, Nadal-Sala D, Gracia C, Kreuzwieser J, Hanewinkel M, Yousefpour R. Gains or Losses in Forest Productivity under Climate Change? The Uncertainty of CO2 Fertilization and Climate Effects. Climate. 2020; 8(12):141.
Chicago/Turabian StyleSperlich, Dominik; Nadal-Sala, Daniel; Gracia, Carlos; Kreuzwieser, Jürgen; Hanewinkel, Marc; Yousefpour, Rasoul. 2020. "Gains or Losses in Forest Productivity under Climate Change? The Uncertainty of CO2 Fertilization and Climate Effects" Climate 8, no. 12: 141.
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