# Characterization of Meteorological Droughts Occurrences in Côte d’Ivoire: Case of the Sassandra Watershed

^{1}

^{2}

^{*}

## Abstract

**:**

## 1. Introduction

## 2. Study Area

^{2}, of which the Ivorian part occupies an area of about 67,000 km

^{2}. The relief of the study area consists of plains and uplands at varying altitude from 1100 to 1180 m. There are some rock chains that have resisted to erosion. The zenith sun movement controls the migration of the ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone) in Côte d’Ivoire, which explains the introduction of different seasonal regimes. Thus the basin of Sassandra is subdivided into four climatic units according to rainfall patterns [20]. The equatorial transitional climate with four seasons (a large rainy season from April to June, a small rainy season from September to November, a large dry season from December to March and a small dry season from July to August). The interannual rainfall average is 1441.5 mm; the equatorial climate of attenuated transition is marked by two seasons (a major rainy season covering the months of August to October and a major dry season from November to March). The interannual average is 1305.2 mm; the tropical transitional climate has a unimodal pattern. It is characterized by a rainy season that occurs from June to October. The dry season covers the months of November to March. The interannual rainfall recorded at the Odienné station is 1473 mm; the mountain climate is characterized by an azonal type pattern. The highest rainfall peak is recorded in September (279 mm). The dry season covers the month of November to March. The average interannual rainfall is 1578.5 mm. The average monthly temperatures range from 23°C to 28°C and are generally uniform from one region to another. The average monthly relative humidity varies from 77 to 96% in Guinea environment and from 44 to 83% in the North [21].

## 3. Data and Methods

#### 3.1. Historical Time Series Data

#### 3.2. Methodology

#### 3.2.1. Characterization of Meteorological Drought Sequences

_{end}− A

_{initial})

_{initial}: Year of the initial dry period; A

_{end}: Year of end of the dry period

#### 3.2.2. Time Series Change Detection

_{i}is the extreme hydrometric observation of rank i (i = 1…n); X

_{m}is the median of the extreme hydrometric series; S

_{k}is the statistic test; n is the number of value for the rank i.

#### 3.2.3. Characterization of Meteorological Droughts Occurrence by Markov Chains

_{00}= pr(E(t + 1) = 0| (E(t) = 0))

P

_{01}= pr(E(t + 1) = 1 | (E(t) = 0))

P

_{10}= pr(E(t + 1) = 0 | (E(t) = 1))

P

_{11}= pr(E(t + 1) = 1| (E(t) = 1))

_{ij}is the probability of going to state j knowing that you are in state i. These probabilities were calculated using the following relationship:

_{ij}= N

_{ij}/N

_{i}with: i and j = 0 or 1

_{ij}is the transition number from state i to state j and N

_{i}is the number of transitions from state i to any other state. The pairs of years N

_{ij}are determined [35] (Equation (6)):

_{0}; N

_{1}and N are the number of dry, wet years and the total number of years of observation, respectively. N

_{01}and N

_{10}respectively represent the number of years of state change from a dry year to a wet year and from a wet year to a dry year. The transition matrix P of the conditional probabilities P

_{ij}, is presented so that each line is equal to 1 [35]. Resulting in a set of possible P

_{ij}values (Equation (7)):

_{ijk}= pr (E(t) = k |(E(t − 1) = j, E(t − 2) = i))

_{ijk}represents the conditional probability of having a state doublet (j, k) following the state doublet (i, j) and i, j, k = 0 or 1, calculated using the following relationship [31]:

_{ijk}= N

_{ijk}/N

_{ij}

_{ijk}is the number of transitions from the state doublet (i, j) to the state doublet (j, k).

## 4. Results

#### 4.1. Analysis of Meteorological Drought Sequences

#### 4.2. Intensity and Duration Parameter Analysis

#### 4.3. Analysis of the Meteorological Droughts Occurrence

#### 4.3.1. Transition States Probability of Markov Chains 1

#### 4.3.2. Transition States Probability of Markov Chains 2

#### 4.4. Analysis of the Spatial Variability of Drought Occurrence

#### 4.4.1. Spatial Variability of the Probability for Two Successive Dry Years

#### 4.4.2. Spatial Variability of Probabilities for Three Consecutive Dry Years

## 5. Discussion

## 6. Conclusions

## Author Contributions

## Funding

## Acknowledgments

## Conflicts of Interest

## References

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**Figure 3.**Spatial distribution of the occurrence for two successive dry years (D-D) over the Sassandra watershed (

**a**) D-D probability over the period 1953–2015; (

**b**) D-D probability over the period 1953–1970; (

**c**) D-D probability over the period 1971–2015).

**Figure 4.**Spatial distribution of the occurrence for three successive dry years (D-D-D) over the Sassandra watershed (

**a**) D-D-D probability over the period 1953–2015; (

**b**) D-D-D probability over the period 1953–1970; (

**c**) D-D-D over the period 1971–2015).

Climatic Area | Name | Latitude North | Longitude West | Code |
---|---|---|---|---|

Attiean climate | Sassandra | 4°57’ | 6°50’ | 1090017200 |

Gagnoa | 6°07’ | 5°56’ | 1090010300 | |

Baoulean climate | Soubré | 5°47’ | 6°36’ | 1090018100 |

Guiglo | 6°32’ | 7°28’ | 1090011200 | |

Vavoua | 7°22’ | 6°28’ | 1090021400 | |

Seguéla | 7°57’ | 6°40’ | 1090017500 | |

Daloa | 6°53’ | 6°27’ | 1090008200 | |

Touba | 8°17’ | 7°41’ | 1090020500 | |

Mountain climate | Man | 7°24’ | 7°31’ | 1090014200 |

Sudanese climate | Odienné | 9°30’ | 7°34’ | 1090016000 |

**Table 2.**Classification of drought sequences according to Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) [22].

SPI Value | Drought Sequence |
---|---|

−0.99 to 0.99 | Near the Normal |

−1.00 to –1.49 | Moderately dry |

−1.50 to –1.99 | Severely dry |

−2.00 and under | Extremely dry |

**Table 3.**Markov process of order 2 [35].

State at Day k−1 and k−2 | State at Day k−1 and k | |||
---|---|---|---|---|

00 | 01 | 10 | 11 | |

00 | P000 | P001 | 0 | 0 |

01 | 0 | 0 | P010 | P011 |

10 | P100 | P101 | 0 | 0 |

11 | 0 | 0 | P110 | P111 |

Stations | Intensity (SPI) | Type | Maximum Duration | Date of Occurrence |
---|---|---|---|---|

Daloa | −1.53 | Severely dry | 7 | 2001 |

Vavoua | −2.26 | Extremely dry | 4 | 2003 |

Man | −3.06 | Extremely dry | 5 | 2003 |

Guiglo | −2.86 | Extremely dry | 6 | 2002 |

Seguéla | −1.53 | Severely dry | 8 | 2002 |

Touba | −2.61 | Extremely dry | 10 | 1983 |

Odienné | −2.05 | Extremely dry | 11 | 1987 |

Gagnoa | −1.90 | Severely dry | 7 | 1992 |

Soubré | −2.25 | Extremely dry | 13 | 1974 |

Sassandra | −1.87 | Severely dry | 18 | 1998 |

Climate Regimes | Stations | Probability (%) | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

W-W | D-W | W-D | D-D | ||

Attiean climate | Sassandra | 68 | 30 | 30 | 70 |

Gagnoa | 54 | 32 | 46 | 70 | |

Baoulean climate | Soubré | 57 | 36 | 40 | 64 |

Guiglo | 43 | 55 | 57 | 45 | |

Vavoua | 40 | 52 | 60 | 50 | |

Seguéla | 46 | 31 | 54 | 70 | |

Daloa | 44 | 40 | 56 | 60 | |

Touba | 62 | 30 | 38 | 70 | |

Mountain climate | Man | 55 | 45 | 45 | 55 |

Soudanese climate | Odienné | 60 | 38 | 40 | 63 |

**Table 6.**Occurrence of meteorological droughts using Markov Chains 1 over the periods 1953–1970 and 1971–2015.

Period | Climate Regimes | Stations | Probability (%) | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

W-W | D-W | W-D | D-D | |||

1953−1970 | Attiean climate | Sassandra | 28 | 36 | 71 | 60 |

Gagnoa | 38 | 50 | 63 | 50 | ||

Baoulean climate | Soubré | 25 | 70 | 75 | 30 | |

Guiglo | 38 | 60 | 63 | 40 | ||

Vavoua | 11 | 78 | 67 | 22 | ||

Seguéla | 29 | 40 | 71 | 55 | ||

Daloa | 40 | 63 | 60 | 23 | ||

Touba | 44 | 45 | 60 | 45 | ||

Mountain climate | Man | 40 | 56 | 55 | 44 | |

Soudanese climate | Odienné | 50 | 15 | 50 | 85 | |

1971−2015 | Attiean climate | Sassandra | 77 | 20 | 23 | 80 |

Gagnoa | 55 | 39 | 45 | 61 | ||

Baoulean climate | Soubré | 61 | 36 | 40 | 64 | |

Guiglo | 35 | 54 | 65 | 46 | ||

Vavoua | 41 | 50 | 59 | 45 | ||

Seguéla | 61 | 22 | 39 | 78 | ||

Daloa | 48 | 45 | 52 | 55 | ||

Touba | 70 | 30 | 30 | 71 | ||

Mountain climate | Man | 58 | 43 | 42 | 55 | |

Soudanese climate | Odienné | 55 | 39 | 41 | 61 |

Climate Regimes | Stations | Probability (%) | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

W-D-W | W-D-D | D-D-W | D-D-D | ||

Attiean climate | Sassandra | 15 | 6 | 7 | 67 |

Gagnoa | 23 | 20 | 11 | 59 | |

Baoulean climate | Soubré | 30 | 10 | 10 | 55 |

Guiglo | 40 | 17 | 20 | 30 | |

Vavoua | 35 | 25 | 21 | 25 | |

Seguéla | 25 | 25 | 15 | 51 | |

Daloa | 22 | 32 | 22 | 40 | |

Touba | 14 | 21 | 18 | 50 | |

Mountain climate | Man | 22 | 25 | 23 | 30 |

Soudanese climate | Odienné | 16 | 23 | 22 | 41 |

**Table 8.**Occurrence of meteorological droughts using Markov Chains 2 over the periods 1953–1970 and 1971–2015.

Period | Climate Regimes | Stations | Probability (%) | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

W-D-W | W-D-D | D-D-W | D-D-D | |||

1953−1970 | Attiean climate | Sassandra | 29 | 43 | 20 | 30 |

Gagnoa | 38 | 25 | 10 | 20 | ||

Baoulean climate | Soubré | 50 | 25 | 20 | 0 | |

Guiglo | 50 | 13 | 20 | 20 | ||

Vavoua | 60 | 22 | 25 | 0 | ||

Seguéla | 14 | 57 | 30 | 20 | ||

Daloa | 40 | 20 | 20 | 0 | ||

Touba | 22 | 33 | 30 | 15 | ||

Mountain climate | Man | 33 | 33 | 30 | 0 | |

Soudanese climate | Odienné | 0 | 60 | 20 | 60 | |

1971−2015 | Attiean climate | Sassandra | 10 | 10 | 10 | 70 |

Gagnoa | 25 | 20 | 17 | 43 | ||

Baoulean climate | Soubré | 20 | 20 | 20 | 50 | |

Guiglo | 40 | 30 | 21 | 25 | ||

Vavoua | 30 | 30 | 30 | 20 | ||

Seguéla | 11 | 25 | 15 | 60 | ||

Daloa | 20 | 30 | 30 | 30 | ||

Touba | 20 | 10 | 8 | 63 | ||

Mountain climate | Man | 17 | 25 | 0 | 25 | |

Soudanese climate | Odienné | 20 | 23 | 22 | 40 |

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**MDPI and ACS Style**

Santé, N.; N’Go, Y.A.; Soro, G.E.; Meledje, N.H.; Goula, B.T.A.
Characterization of Meteorological Droughts Occurrences in Côte d’Ivoire: Case of the Sassandra Watershed. *Climate* **2019**, *7*, 60.
https://doi.org/10.3390/cli7040060

**AMA Style**

Santé N, N’Go YA, Soro GE, Meledje NH, Goula BTA.
Characterization of Meteorological Droughts Occurrences in Côte d’Ivoire: Case of the Sassandra Watershed. *Climate*. 2019; 7(4):60.
https://doi.org/10.3390/cli7040060

**Chicago/Turabian Style**

Santé, Natacha, Yao Alexis N’Go, Gneneyougo Emile Soro, N’Diaye Hermann Meledje, and Bi Tié Albert Goula.
2019. "Characterization of Meteorological Droughts Occurrences in Côte d’Ivoire: Case of the Sassandra Watershed" *Climate* 7, no. 4: 60.
https://doi.org/10.3390/cli7040060