2021 September - 9 articles
(Hendry 1980, p. 403) The three golden rules of econometrics are “test, test, and test”. The current paper applies that approach to model the forecasts of the Federal Open Market Committee over 1992–2019 and to forecast those forecasts themselves. Mo...
Stips et al. (2016) use information flows (Liang (2008, 2014)) to establish causality from various forcings to global temperature. We show that the formulas being used hinge on a simplifying assumption that is nearly always rejected by the data. We p...
There is no available Prais–Winsten algorithm for regression with AR(2) or higher order errors, and the one with AR(1) errors is not fully justified or is implemented incorrectly (thus being inefficient). This paper addresses both issues, providing a...
This paper discusses the notion of cointegrating space for linear processes integrated of any order. It first shows that the notions of (polynomial) cointegrating vectors and of root functions coincide. Second, it discusses how the cointegrating spac...
We showcase the impact of Katarina Juselius and Søren Johansen’s contribution to econometrics using bibliometric data on citations from 1989 to 2017, extracted from the Web of Science (WoS) database. Our purpose is to analyze the impact of KJ and SJ’...
Peter Phillips has had a tremendous impact on econometric theory and practice [...]
Recently, the world of cryptocurrencies has experienced an undoubted increase in interest. Since the first cryptocurrency appeared in 2009 in the aftermath of the Great Recession, the popularity of digital currencies has, year by year, risen continuo...
We generalize the Gaussian Mixture Autoregressive (GMAR) model to the Fisher’s z Mixture Autoregressive (ZMAR) model for modeling nonlinear time series. The model consists of a mixture of K-component Fisher’s z autoregressive models with the mixing p...
We investigate forecasting in models that condition on variables for which future values are unknown. We consider the role of the significance level because it guides the binary decisions whether to include or exclude variables. The analysis is exten...
