Abstract
Exploring the spatiotemporal evolution of building stock in African countries is of great significance for understanding the urbanization process, regional development disparities, and sustainable development pathways in the Global South. Integrating long-term (1975–2020), 100 m resolution building stock data for Tanzania with multi-source environmental and socioeconomic datasets, this study employed GIS spatial analysis techniques—including optimized hotspot analysis, standard deviational ellipse, and geographical detector—to investigate the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of building differentiation. The results indicate that over the 45-year period, Tanzania’s building stock underwent rapid expansion, with a 3.83-fold increase in volume and a 4.93-fold increase in area, while the average height decreased continuously by 1.04 m. This growth was predominantly driven by the expansion of residential buildings. The spatial distribution of buildings exhibited a “north-dense, south-sparse” pattern with agglomeration along traffic axes. During 1975–1990, building growth hotspots were concentrated in western and southern regions, shifting to areas surrounding Lake Victoria and central administrative centers during 2005–2020. In contrast, coldspots expanded progressively from northern, northeastern regions and Zanzibar Island to parts of the southern and eastern coasts. The building distribution consistently maintained a northwest–southeast spatial orientation, with increasingly prominent directional characteristics; the centroid of building distribution moved more than 90 km northwestward, and the agglomeration intensity continued to increase. Socioeconomic factors—including population density, road network density, and GDP density—have a significantly stronger influence on building distribution than natural factors. Among natural factors, only river network density exhibits a significant effect, while constraints such as slope and terrain relief are relatively insignificant.