1. Introduction
The design process of complex products (such as aerospace systems, high-end equipment, etc.) usually involves multidisciplinary deep coupling, and its change propagation has significant multi-source and nonlinear conduction characteristics. Such changes form a complex dependency network in the design parameter space, and their dynamic propagation process may lead not only to local performance degradation but also to systemic risks, such as cascading failures. Existing research shows that more than 60% of quality defects and cost overruns in complex product development are due to change propagation control failures. Therefore, one of the key technologies is ensuring the stability and efficiency of the complex product design process by identifying and extracting the propagation path of design changes and then predicting and controlling the propagation impact.
In the design process of complex products, change propagation is a common phenomenon with systemic impacts. Due to multi-level and heterogeneous dependencies within product systems, a change in one design unit often triggers a chain reaction that affects other related units. Numerous studies have investigated change modeling and propagation path analysis. Zhang et al. [
1] proposed a design change model that integrates multidisciplinary coupling and parameter information, enabling systematic identification of change propagation paths and supporting resolution decisions. A concept generation and selection framework was introduced to improve the flexibility of engineering changes across the lifecycle. In addition, Hu [
2] developed sensitivity-based methods and risk susceptibility analysis to assess propagation impact and to prioritize system elements under uncertainty. Guenther et al. [
3] emphasized early-stage change consideration by incorporating propagation analysis into modular platform design, improving product adaptability.
From a path evaluation perspective, Li et al. [
4] formulated objective functions to assess multiple propagation routes under renewable resource constraints and optimized change scheduling using simulation and optimization integration. Liu et al. [
5] constructed a multi-layer weighted propagation network based on the Function–Behavior–Structure (FBS) model, enriching path representation across design levels. For risk-aware modeling, Yeasin et al. [
6] introduced a dynamic Bayesian network to quantify change risks and predict change durations, capturing temporal uncertainty. Li et al. [
7] further considered incomplete source information by incorporating gray attack models into risk propagation networks. Ni and colleagues [
8] built directed weighted networks of automotive components to model structural dependencies. Similarly, Li et al. [
9] combined an enhanced DFMEA with knowledge graphs to evaluate component-level risks in complex systems. Efforts have also been made in predictive methods and design support tools. Tang et al. [
10] proposed a change propagation algorithm for aircraft tool design and developed a computer-aided forecasting system. Shankar et al. [
11] presented a validation planning method to mitigate change impacts during engineering design and manufacturing. Sarica [
12] modeled propagation as an infinite regress problem and used eigenvector analysis to quantify component influence and sensitivity. Wynn et al. [
13] developed iterative resource-demand models that consider concurrency and multi-source changes to assess schedule risks. In addition, formal modeling approaches have been explored. Gan et al. [
14] constructed a Petri-Net-based model for attribute-level design changes and embedded optimization using ant colony algorithms. Chua and Hossain [
15] introduced a predictive model based on stage-dependent change magnitudes to assess downstream impacts. Eltaief et al. [
16] developed a matrix-based method for change risk quantification and built a structure–task network for risk evaluation in complex designs.
These studies have collectively advanced multi-source change modeling, propagation mechanism understanding, and risk quantification, forming a strong foundation for change impact management. However, a key challenge remains: existing models often lack integration of dynamic feedback mechanisms during propagation, making it difficult to characterize the temporal, nonlinear, and coupled effects of changes across product stages and design units. This limits their effectiveness in accurately predicting the scope and intensity of change propagation.
The extraction of change propagation paths forms the basis for identifying potential impact scopes, locating sensitive design regions, and enabling timely coordination among collaborative teams. Existing studies have developed various modeling and extraction techniques, including Design Structure Matrices (DSMs), complex network models, and Petri Nets. For path modeling and propagation structure analysis, Ma [
17] constructed a semantic model of design features and a change analysis network, proposing an adaptive strategy to optimize parallel propagation paths in multi-source change scenarios. A multi-agent framework was also introduced to enable controllable mechanisms where propagation effects could be absorbed or neutralized. Li et al. [
18] built a component association model based on small-world network theory, with edge weights capturing change intensity, cost, and response time. They applied ant colony optimization to address multi-objective path optimization in the context of motorcycle engine design. Zheng et al. [
19] proposed a dual-layer mechanism combining upstream dynamic optimization and downstream path search to generate globally coordinated change paths within a feature-association network. In the domain of optimization algorithm design, Wang et al. [
20] addressed configuration updates in sanitation vehicle design by constructing a change impact network and enhancing ant colony optimization with a penalty-based weight control mechanism to reduce inter-module conflicts. Song et al. [
21] integrated reinforcement learning with differential evolution through a DDQN-DE algorithm, enabling dynamic selection of search strategies for multi-objective optimization with respect to cost, time, and performance. Zhan et al. [
22] developed a temporal differential optimization algorithm based on an extension-theory-based parameter network, aiming to improve adaptability to time-varying design conditions through cost-sensitive path modeling. In terms of intelligent decision modeling, Xing et al. [
23] introduced a process-driven decision model based on prospect theory, incorporating the psychological characteristics of design agents. A dual-layer encoding method was proposed to identify change paths with minimal cognitive disturbance, offering a new perspective on agent-aware propagation modeling. Regarding practical engineering validation, Chen et al. [
24] developed a parallel search strategy tailored for large-scale, multi-source change environments, which significantly improved extraction efficiency in complex structures. Ricoh and Cadence [
25] demonstrated the value of incremental extraction techniques in system-on-chip (SoC) design, allowing localized re-evaluation of affected network segments without full reanalysis.
Collectively, these studies have advanced the field in terms of network construction, propagation modeling, and optimization strategy development. However, several limitations persist. Although various approaches have been developed for change propagation modeling and path optimization, they differ significantly in network representation, integration of heterogeneous design layers, use of dynamic feedback mechanisms, and strategies for conflict control.
Table 1 summarizes representative prior methods and compares their core features with those of the proposed method. Most optimization strategies rely on heuristic or evolutionary search and do not incorporate feedback mechanisms such as propagation frequency or historical change behaviors. In addition, existing methods for path coordination and conflict resolution in multi-source scenarios remain underdeveloped, which restricts the scalability and global optimality of path planning under concurrent change conditions.
This study proposes a multi-source change propagation path optimization method for complex product design, which mainly includes three links: propagation network modeling, risk perception path extraction, and multi-source path optimization. Firstly, a communication network that integrates the information-dependent information of the structure, function, and form layers is constructed to expand the expression ability of the traditional communication graph model. Secondly, the node risk is estimated based on the topological structure features, and the path cost function is constructed based on the edge propagation probability so as to guide the path extraction process to identify more risk-sensitive propagation paths. On this basis, a multi-source path combination optimization method based on candidate path frequency feedback is designed, and it dynamically adjusts the propagation cost while extracting the paths, effectively reducing the conflict and overlap between paths, and improving the coordination of multi-source propagation.
The main contributions of this paper are reflected in two aspects:
A novel multi-dimensional propagation network modeling framework is proposed, which integrates heterogeneous features and significantly improves the structural integrity and engineering interpretability of propagation dynamics.
A risk-frequency-guided path optimization method is designed, achieving an optimal balance between conflict mitigation and cost efficiency in multi-source propagation scenarios.
The remainder of this paper is organized as follows:
Section 2 presents the proposed multi-layer propagation network model, the path cost definition, and the multi-source path combination optimization method.
Section 3 presents the experimental results from the intelligent cabin case study and additional validations on other complex product networks.
Section 4 discusses the parameter sensitivity, computational aspects, applicability, and limitations of the method.
Section 5 concludes the paper and highlights future research directions.
3. Results
The effectiveness of the proposed change propagation path extraction method under different conditions was evaluated through two experiments. The first experiment used a network derived from a real-world intelligent cabin design project, aiming to verify the method’s applicability in an actual engineering context. The second experiment was conducted on a simulated network, allowing for the systematic control of network structure and propagation characteristics for comparative analysis. All experiments were implemented in Python 3.11 and executed on a standard laptop without GPU acceleration (Intel Core i7 processor, 16 GB RAM, Windows 11 OS).
3.1. Experimental Validation on a Real-World Intelligent Cabin Network
The first experiment aims to evaluate the applicability and effectiveness of the proposed change propagation path extraction method in an actual engineering scenario. The experiments were conducted on a complex product network constructed from a real-world intelligent cabin design project. This network contains 115 nodes covering three design layers and the corresponding object layer; nodes 1–34 represent object nodes (indicated in blue), nodes 41–60 represent function nodes (represented in green), nodes 71–114 represent structure nodes (shown in orange), and nodes 120–136 represent form nodes (shown in purple), as shown in
Figure 2. In the network, the color of each edge is the same as that of the nodes in its layer. Cross-layer edges are shown in gray. The thickness of the edges reflects the weight magnitude. This network incorporates actual structural modules, functional interactions, and form elements. The data were obtained through component analysis and design decomposition of the intelligent cabin configuration used in a commercial vehicle platform. Seven representative source nodes were selected from different levels to simulate realistic multi-source change propagation scenarios. All methods in this experiment were executed on the same network with identical source nodes.
Figure 3,
Figure 4 and
Figure 5 present the path structures and node heat distributions for the proposed method, the Dijkstra method, and the DSM method. The three heatmaps use a unified color scale (0–4) to indicate visit counts: node colors represent how many times each node is traversed, while edge colors and widths represent edge visit counts. Darker colors and thicker edges indicate higher counts, whereas zero visits appear in lighter colors with thinner edges. Source nodes are highlighted with red outlines (other nodes have black outlines). By comparing the three heatmaps, one can observe the overlaps and differences in path usage across the methods.
In
Figure 3, the proposed method generates three relatively independent linear paths, covering node sequences such as 59–80, 2–45–94, and 58–33–95, with a main backbone connecting through nodes 34 and 31. The heatmap shows a band-like gradient in access frequency, with high-frequency nodes confined to internal segments of the paths and no visible hotspot concentration. The paths exhibit minimal overlap and form a compact structure, indicating effective control of node conflicts and balanced routing decisions.
Figure 4 shows the result of the Dijkstra method, where the paths form a dense and entangled network. Nodes such as 33, 90, and 86 display significantly high access frequencies and emerge as hotspot centers. The paths heavily overlap around these nodes, forming redundant cycles and small loops, which leads to spatial clutter and excessive path redundancy. Several source nodes (e.g., 59 and 60) must traverse long detours to connect to the main structure, resulting in a loose topology and high risk of conflict due to load concentration.
In
Figure 5, the DSM method shows intermediate performance. The overall structure forms a Y-shape, with node 31 serving as a central junction connecting three major branches toward nodes 59, 2, and 60. The heatmap reveals that nodes such as 31 and 34 still carry relatively high access frequencies, but the hotspot area is more constrained than the Dijkstra method, while the paths are clearer and the number of redundant links is reduced; some path overlaps and local load concentration remain.
The effectiveness of the proposed path extraction method was evaluated by comparing it with the classical Dijkstra algorithm and the DSM method. Five evaluation metrics were employed to capture the structural and cost implications of change propagation. The average propagation cost measures the expected per-path impact of a single change, reflecting the average system cost per propagation event. A lower value suggests a reduced likelihood of secondary changes or reworking. The average path length corresponds to the number of hops or steps a change signal must traverse. Shorter paths reduce the risk of information attenuation, dependency accumulation, and uncontrolled spread. The node redundancy rate quantifies the degree of node overlap among selected paths, where high redundancy indicates shared bottlenecks and greater vulnerability to cascading failures. The max node conflict denotes the maximum concurrent access to any node across all paths, which is indicative of congestion or scheduling conflicts, with higher values suggesting potential delays and organizational disruption. Finally, the total cost aggregates the overall change impact across all selected paths, aligning with budgetary and scheduling constraints. Collectively, these indicators reflect propagation intensity, efficiency, structural resilience, congestion risk, and cumulative system burden.
As shown in
Table 5, the proposed method consistently outperforms the baselines across all metrics. The average propagation cost is 0.2525, which is significantly lower than that of Dijkstra (0.5478) and DSM (0.3608), with corresponding
p-values of 0.00013 and 0.00457, respectively. This indicates a clear improvement in propagation efficiency. The average path length of 3.67 is also significantly shorter than that of Dijkstra (6.83,
p = 0.00087) and DSM (4.83,
p = 0.0213), helping reduce the overall path complexity. In terms of node redundancy, the proposed method yields a rate of 0.2222, which is lower than that of Dijkstra (0.3846,
p = 0.00132) and DSM (0.3500,
p = 0.0184), suggesting more efficient node usage. The maximum node conflict is reduced to 2, whereas both Dijkstra and DSM have conflicts of 3, indicating better conflict control, although no statistical tests were applied here. When considering both the propagation cost and structural complexity, the proposed method achieves the lowest total cost of 1.5152, compared with 3.2869 for Dijkstra and 2.1649 for DSM. The
p-values (0.00004 and 0.00210, respectively) confirm the significance of this improvement. In summary, the proposed method demonstrates statistically significant and consistent improvements in path compactness, propagation efficiency, and conflict reduction compared with existing methods.
3.2. Experimental Validation on a Simulated Propagation Network
The effectiveness and generality of the proposed method were evaluated through experiments on three representative multi-layered engineering networks: a wind turbine drivetrain system, an electric vehicle (EV) e-drive system, and an exoskeleton manipulator system. For each network, approximately 200 nodes were simulated according to product characteristics rather than using real-world data, ensuring that the connectivity patterns and layer distributions reflect realistic engineering architectures. Each network was organized into functional, structural, and formal layers based on domain knowledge, but with different dominant characteristics; the wind turbine network (210 nodes, 424 edges, average degree ≈ 4.0) emphasizes functional flows of energy and torque transmission, the EV e-drive network (240 nodes, 1400 edges, average degree ≈ 11.7) contains dense structural connections among components in the powertrain, and the exoskeleton manipulator network (270 nodes, 1700 edges, average degree ≈ 12.6) exhibits a pronounced formal hierarchy of joints and actuators.
In the data preparation stage, source nodes across all three layers were randomly selected to simulate realistic design-change scenarios involving multiple origins and cross-layer propagation. All experiments applied the same propagation evaluation model and cost computation procedures. In the path extraction stage, three methods were compared: the proposed method, the k-shortest simple paths approach (KSSP) [
27], and a directed routing strategy (DRSP) [
28]. After extracting candidate paths, the resulting propagation characteristics were assessed using quantitative indicators including path length, cumulative cost, and layer-wise propagation extent.
Table 6 presents the experimental results with 95% confidence intervals and significance annotations. Across all three networks, the proposed method consistently achieves the lowest average propagation cost and total cost, with statistically significant improvements (
) over both baselines. In the wind turbine and EV networks, the proposed method also outperforms the baselines in terms of average path length and node redundancy, indicating superior control over both propagation efficiency and structural dispersion. In particular, the reduced redundancy implies that the selected paths are more structurally diverse, mitigating risks of common bottlenecks and simultaneous failures. In the exoskeleton manipulator network, although the proposed method exhibits slightly longer path lengths than KSSP, it still achieves the best performance in cost-related metrics. The proposed method incorporates a structural risk avoidance mechanism during path extraction, actively bypassing highly coupled or high-centrality nodes, which may result in slightly longer paths. In return, the cost function, which integrates frequency feedback and structural centrality, effectively steers propagation away from high-risk regions, thereby significantly reducing the overall propagation cost.
Overall, the proposed method demonstrates consistent and significant advantages across different network topologies. The improvements are observed not only in cost efficiency but also in the structural robustness of the propagation paths. These results validate the proposed mechanism’s adaptability and scalability, making it well suited for complex engineering systems with layered architectures and heterogeneous dependencies. The results also show that the proposed method consistently outperforms the baselines across all three datasets, with stable advantages in cases dominated by functional flows, dense structural connections, and pronounced formal hierarchies, indicating that the method maintains high sensitivity and adaptability to different dominant layer types.
4. Discussion
The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method achieves significant improvements in both propagation efficiency and structural coordination compared with the baseline approaches. This section discusses the underlying factors contributing to these improvements and the practical implications for change management in complex product design.
4.1. Sensitivity to and
A systematic sensitivity analysis was conducted on two key hyperparameters, the frequency-feedback weight
and the node-overlap penalty
, to assess their impact on path extraction quality and multi-source coordination. The experiments were performed on a graph of size
, with the number of candidate paths per source fixed at
. Starting from the default setting
,
and
were varied over the set
. Each configuration was repeated
times with different random seeds to control for stochastic variation, while keeping the graph structure and edge-weight perturbations fixed. The recorded metrics include average propagation cost, total propagation cost, maximum node conflict, and runtime (mean ± 95% CI), as shown in
Table 7. Average path length and redundancy are omitted from the main table due to near-zero variance under this topology, which is dominated by one-hop selections.
The results show that is strongly associated with the propagation cost, while mainly affects node conflicts. Specifically, removing frequency feedback (i.e., ) leads to a substantial increase in both average and total costs, which rise to and , respectively, compared with the default values of and . This indicates that, in the absence of frequency guidance, path selection tends to overuse frequently traversed but structurally expensive regions. In contrast, setting results in the lowest observed costs ( average and total), without increasing node conflicts. This suggests that strong frequency feedback effectively encourages efficient path selection without compromising structural coordination.
On the other hand, the overlap penalty has limited influence on the propagation cost but plays an important role in conflict suppression. When , the maximum node conflict increases to , while the cost remains nearly unchanged at , close to the default setting. This confirms that successfully reduces structural congestion. Notably, further increasing beyond 1 does not yield additional conflict reduction, implying that a moderate penalty is sufficient to suppress most path overlap issues.
4.2. Computational Complexity
The scalability of the proposed method in product design networks is evaluated in this section by analyzing both time and space complexity. The estimation focuses on the core steps of the algorithm, namely path enumeration, search procedures, and the storage and management of candidate paths.
For a single source node
s and target node
t, the enumeration of propagation paths has a time complexity of
where
n and
m denote the number of nodes and edges, respectively, and
U is the upper bound of candidate paths. Each path generation depends on shortest-path search and sorting operations, which introduce the
factor. When the process is repeated across all source–target pairs, the total time complexity becomes
where
S is the number of source nodes and
L is the average path length. This indicates that the overall computational cost grows linearly with the candidate path bound
U, the average path length
L, and the source node scale
S.
The space complexity is mainly determined by two parts: graph storage using adjacency lists and the storage of candidate paths. The former requires
space. If each source–target pair retains
K candidate paths with an average length of
ℓ, the additional storage cost is
This shows that space consumption grows linearly with the graph size, while also being affected by the number and length of candidate paths.
From the theoretical derivation and the experimental results in
Table 8, the method remains within polynomial complexity. For small- to medium-scale product networks, when the candidate path bound
U, the retained path number
K, and the average path length
ℓ are reasonably constrained, both computational and storage costs remain manageable. The consistency between theoretical analysis and empirical results suggests that the proposed method achieves a balance between accuracy and efficiency and provides sufficient scalability for practical change propagation analysis in product design networks.
4.3. Convergence Analysis
After candidate paths are generated, the method applies a mixed-integer programming (MIP) model to select one path per source. This model is formulated as a 0–1 integer linear program and solved using an exact solver, which guarantees global optimality. Both the weighted-sum and epsilon-constraint formulations explore the approximate Pareto front within the fixed candidate pool without relying on initialization or gradient information, ensuring stable global search behavior. In addition, the lexicographic variant uses a two-phase strategy; it first minimizes the total cost and then minimizes the number of visited nodes within a cost tolerance range. This design provides explicit control over optimality. Overall, the proposed optimization stage has guaranteed convergence in theory and shows consistent solution quality in practice.
4.4. Computational Cost and Scalability
Table 8 reports the runtime and peak memory usage of the method on synthetic graphs of varying sizes. As the number of nodes increases from 200 to 1200, the runtime grows from about 1 s to around 20 s, and the memory usage increases from 0.7 MB to 2.4 MB. This trend indicates stable and acceptable computational costs under typical task sizes. The method also exhibits good structural scalability. Path generation for different
pairs is independent and can be parallelized across threads or machines. Frequency aggregation and candidate merging are also simple to distribute. Overall, the method has a simple structure and controllable parameters and is well suited for deployment on a variety of platforms.
5. Conclusions
This study addresses the problem of organizing and optimizing multi-source change propagation paths in complex product design. A design propagation network model integrating functional, structural, and form-level information is constructed. By introducing a composite edge resistance function based on propagation probability and frequency feedback, along with a path cost function amplified by terminal-node risk, a coherent and interpretable mechanism for path evaluation and selection is developed. Furthermore, a mixed-integer programming model is applied to identify the optimal path set under global conflict constraints.
The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method achieves significant improvements in multi-source path conflict control and propagation risk reduction compared with existing DSM-based approaches. Specifically, the total propagation cost is reduced by an average of 27.3%, and the node-level conflict rate is lowered by 41.6%, indicating the method’s suitability for structural coordination and propagation planning during the early stages of design. From a practical perspective, the proposed method provides designers with a systematic tool for analyzing and predicting the impact of changes in complex product design. The design network can be instantiated from requirement documents, bills of materials and change logs; observable measures are normalized into edge weights, and the proposed analysis is executed within the existing engineering change management workflow. Once the design network is constructed, the method enables the quantification of dependencies among different design elements and the computation of potential propagation paths, thereby identifying the critical nodes involved in a change and the range of elements that may be affected. By using this analysis to support design decisions, designers can plan change paths before implementation and avoid rework and resource waste caused by conflicts in change propagation. Consequently, the method not only enhances the transparency and controllability of the design process but also contributes to reducing iteration costs and improving the robustness and efficiency of complex product development. Overall, the method addresses the practical problem of unpredictable change propagation by making its impact visible and quantifiable, supporting prioritization and conflict avoidance, and thereby reducing rework and cycle time in complex product development.
Despite its theoretical and empirical advantages, several limitations remain. First, the model assumes that propagation probabilities and risk coefficients are accurately known, which may not hold in real-world design scenarios with uncertainty. Second, the current formulation focuses on static structural propagation and does not consider the temporal sequence of changes. Third, some edge weights are based on expert estimation, which may introduce subjectivity. External factors (e.g., regulations, market demands, and environmental conditions) are not explicitly modeled but can be indirectly incorporated via expert knowledge when defining relation strengths and risk parameters.
Future work will address these limitations by incorporating uncertainty modeling into key parameters, extending the model to dynamic change flows, and leveraging design data to calibrate edge weights in a more objective and transferable manner. In addition, future work will involve probabilistic modeling of external factors to enhance full life cycle applicability. Furthermore, the proposed approach will be validated and refined through practical case studies to ensure its robustness and effectiveness in real-world applications.