This study aimed to identify the impact of achieving the 1.5 °C target on the petroleum supply chain in Japan, and discuss the feasibility and challenges of decarbonization. First, a national material flow was established for the petroleum supply chain in Japan, including processes for crude petroleum refining, petroleum product manufacturing, plastic resin and product manufacturing, and by-product manufacturing. In particular, by-product manufacturing processes, such as hydrogen, gaseous carbon dioxide, and sulfur, were selected because they are utilized in other industries. Next, the outlook for the production of plastic resin, hydrogen, dry ice produced from carbon dioxide gas, and sulfur until 2050 was estimated for reducing petroleum consumption required to achieve the 1.5 °C target. As a result, national petroleum treatment is expected to reduce from 177,048.00 thousand kl in 2019 to 126,643.00 thousand kl in 2030 if the reduction in petroleum consumption is established. Along with this decrease, plastic resin production is expected to decrease from 10,500.00 thousand ton in 2019 to 7511.00 thousand ton by 2030. Conversely, the plastic market is expected to grow steadily, and the estimated plastic resin production in 2030 is expected to be 20,079.00 thousand ton. This result indicates that there is a large output gap between plastic supply and demand. To mitigate this gap, strongly promoting the recycling of waste plastics and making the price competitiveness of biomass plastics equal to that of petroleum-derived plastics are necessary.
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