Next Article in Journal
Evaluating the Antiparasitic Activity of Novel BPZ Derivatives Against Toxoplasma gondii
Next Article in Special Issue
Compartmentalized Replication of SARS-Cov-2 in Upper vs. Lower Respiratory Tract Assessed by Whole Genome Quasispecies Analysis
Previous Article in Journal
Heterogeneity of Molecular Characteristics among Staphylococcus argenteus Clinical Isolates (ST2250, ST2793, ST1223, and ST2198) in Northern Taiwan
Previous Article in Special Issue
SARS-CoV-2 RNA Persistence in Naso-Pharyngeal Swabs
Open AccessArticle

Forecasting the Spreading of COVID-19 across Nine Countries from Europe, Asia, and the American Continents Using the ARIMA Models

1
Department of Research, Faculty of Biology, “Alexandru Ioan Cuza” University, 700505 Iasi, Romania
2
Department of Biology, Faculty of Biology, “Alexandru Ioan Cuza” University, 700505 Iasi, Romania
3
Leeds Teaching Hospitals NHS Trust, Great George St., Leeds LS1 3EX, UK
4
Laboratory of Neuropathology and Electron Microscopy, School of Medicine, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54124 Thessaloniki, Greece
5
Faculty of Medicine, University of Medicine and Pharmacy “Grigore T. Popa”, 700115 Iasi, Romania
*
Authors to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Microorganisms 2020, 8(8), 1158; https://doi.org/10.3390/microorganisms8081158
Received: 12 July 2020 / Revised: 29 July 2020 / Accepted: 29 July 2020 / Published: 30 July 2020
(This article belongs to the Special Issue SARS-CoV-2: Epidemiology and Pathogenesis)
Since mid-November 2019, when the first SARS-CoV-2-infected patient was officially reported, the new coronavirus has affected over 10 million people from which half a million died during this short period. There is an urgent need to monitor, predict, and restrict COVID-19 in a more efficient manner. This is why Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models have been developed and used to predict the epidemiological trend of COVID-19 in Ukraine, Romania, the Republic of Moldova, Serbia, Bulgaria, Hungary, USA, Brazil, and India, these last three countries being otherwise the most affected presently. To increase accuracy, the daily prevalence data of COVID-19 from 10 March 2020 to 10 July 2020 were collected from the official website of the Romanian Government GOV.RO, World Health Organization (WHO), and European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) websites. Several ARIMA models were formulated with different ARIMA parameters. ARIMA (1, 1, 0), ARIMA (3, 2, 2), ARIMA (3, 2, 2), ARIMA (3, 1, 1), ARIMA (1, 0, 3), ARIMA (1, 2, 0), ARIMA (1, 1, 0), ARIMA (0, 2, 1), and ARIMA (0, 2, 0) models were chosen as the best models, depending on their lowest Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) values for Ukraine, Romania, the Republic of Moldova, Serbia, Bulgaria, Hungary, USA, Brazil, and India (4.70244, 1.40016, 2.76751, 2.16733, 2.98154, 2.11239, 3.21569, 4.10596, 2.78051). This study demonstrates that ARIMA models are suitable for making predictions during the current crisis and offers an idea of the epidemiological stage of these regions. View Full-Text
Keywords: prevalence; incidence; Europe; Asia; the American continents; COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; epidemiological prevalence; incidence; Europe; Asia; the American continents; COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; epidemiological
Show Figures

Figure 1

MDPI and ACS Style

Ilie, O.-D.; Cojocariu, R.-O.; Ciobica, A.; Timofte, S.-I.; Mavroudis, I.; Doroftei, B. Forecasting the Spreading of COVID-19 across Nine Countries from Europe, Asia, and the American Continents Using the ARIMA Models. Microorganisms 2020, 8, 1158. https://doi.org/10.3390/microorganisms8081158

AMA Style

Ilie O-D, Cojocariu R-O, Ciobica A, Timofte S-I, Mavroudis I, Doroftei B. Forecasting the Spreading of COVID-19 across Nine Countries from Europe, Asia, and the American Continents Using the ARIMA Models. Microorganisms. 2020; 8(8):1158. https://doi.org/10.3390/microorganisms8081158

Chicago/Turabian Style

Ilie, Ovidiu-Dumitru; Cojocariu, Roxana-Oana; Ciobica, Alin; Timofte, Sergiu-Ioan; Mavroudis, Ioannis; Doroftei, Bogdan. 2020. "Forecasting the Spreading of COVID-19 across Nine Countries from Europe, Asia, and the American Continents Using the ARIMA Models" Microorganisms 8, no. 8: 1158. https://doi.org/10.3390/microorganisms8081158

Find Other Styles
Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Article Access Map by Country/Region

1
Search more from Scilit
 
Search
Back to TopTop