Abstract
In this paper, we propose a new three-parameter lifetime distribution for modeling symmetric real-life data sets. A simple-type Copula-based construction is presented to derive many bivariate- and multivariate-type distributions. The failure rate function of the new model can be “monotonically asymmetric increasing”, “increasing-constant”, “monotonically asymmetric decreasing” and “upside-down-constant” shaped. We investigate some of mathematical symmetric/asymmetric properties such as the ordinary moments, moment generating function, conditional moment, residual life and reversed residual functions. Bonferroni and Lorenz curves and mean deviations are discussed. The maximum likelihood method is used to estimate the model parameters. Finally, we illustrate the importance of the new model by the study of real data applications to show the flexibility and potentiality of the new model. The kernel density estimation and box plots are used for exploring the symmetry of the used data.
1. Introduction
The monotonicity asymmetric failure (hazard) rate function (HRF) of a certain lifetime probabilistic distribution has an important role in modeling real lifetime data. Distributions with the “monotonicity increasing” failure rate (MIFR) function have useful real applications in “pricing” and “supply” chain contracting problems. The MIFR property is a well-known and useful concept in “dynamic programming”, “reliability theory” and other areas of applied probability and statistics (see [1,2]). The paper [3] introduced a new two-parameter lifetime model with MIFR named the binomial-exponential-2 (BE2) model, which is constructed as a model of a random sum (RSm) of independent exponential random variables (RVs) when the sample size has a “zero truncated binomial” distribution. The BE2 distribution can be used as an alternative to the Weibull (W), gamma (Gam), exponentiated exponential (EE), and weighted exponential (WhE) distributions in real life applications.
The survival function (SF) of the binomial exponential-2 (BE2) distribution is given by
where is a scale parameter, is the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the BE2 model and is a shape parameter. It is easy to show that the SF in (1) is increasing in 1 where 1 (see [2]). The probability density function (PDF) corresponding to (1) is
which can be expressed as
Since is negative, the is “concave” for all and 1. As a result, is “log-concave” and “unimodal”. Additionally, the PDF (2) can be written as
where
The BE2 model is a mixture of the standard exponential (with parameter ) model and standard gamma model (with shape parameter and scale parameter ); when , we get the standard exponential model, and when , the BE2 model reduces to the Gam model. In the last few decades, many new G families of continuous distributions have been developed. One of the most famous ones is called the new type II half-logistic (TIIHL-G) family (see [4]). According to [4], the CDF of the TIIHL-G family of distributions is given by
where is the baseline CDF depending on a parameter vector and is an additional shape parameter. For each baseline , we can generate a new TIIHL model using (4). The corresponding PDF to (4) is given by
where is the baseline PDF. Equation (5) will be most tractable when and have simple expressions. The survival function, the failure (hazard) rate function and the quantile function are and Equations (4) and (5) are used for generating the new model.
2. The New Model and Its Motivation
In this section, we introduce the three-parameter type II half-logistic binomial exponential 2 (TIIHLBE2) distribution. Substituting from (1) into (4), the CDF of the TIIHLBE2 (or expanded BE2 “EBE” for short) model can be expressed as
The corresponding PDF is given by
Here and henceforth, an RV having PDF (7) is denoted by EBE . For the EBE distribution, the HRF can be derived as
Figure 1 presents some plots of the PDF of the EBE model for some different values of the parameters and . We note that the new PDF can be “right skewed” with different shapes of “skewness” and “kurtosis”.
Figure 1.
Plots of the probability density function (PDF) of EBE distribution.
Figure 2 gives the plots of the HRF of the EBE distribution. We note that the new HRF can be “increasing”, “increasing-constant”, “decreasing” and “upside-down-constant” shaped. Thus, the new model may be useful in modeling different shapes of real data.
Figure 2.
Plots of the HRF of the EBE distribution.
3. Copula under the EBE Model
3.1. Bivariate EBE (BivEBE) Type via Renyi’s Entropy
Following [5], the joint CDF (JCDF) of the “Renyi’s entropy Copula” can be expressed as
; then, the associated BivEBE will be where and are the parameter vectors for and , respectively.
3.2. BivEBE Type Using “Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern” (FGM) Copula
Consider the JCDF of the FGM family, where The marginal functions are and . The unknown parameter is a dependence parameter, and for every , , which is the “grounded minimum” property, and and , which is “grounded maximum” property. and are then set.
Then, The joint PDF can be derived from
or from
For more details, see [6,7,8,9,10,11,12].
3.3. BivEBE Type via “Modified FGM” (MFGM) Copula
The modified JCDF of the bivariate FGM copula can be expressed as
where and , where and are two absolutely continuous functions on where Let
Then,
where
and
3.3.1. BivEBE-FGM (Type-I) Model
The BivEBE-FGM (Type-I) model can be derived directly using
3.3.2. BivEBE-FGM (Type-II) Model
Consider and that satisfy all the conditions stated earlier where
The corresponding BivEBE-FGM (Type-II) copula can be derived from
3.3.3. BivEBE-FGM (Type-III) Model
Consider and that satisfy all the conditions stated earlier where
In this case, one can also derive a closed form expression for the associated CDF of the BivEBE-FGM (Type-III).
3.3.4. BivEBE-FGM (Type-IV) Model
The JCDF of the BivEBE-FGM (Type-IV) model can be derived from
3.4. BivEBE Type via Clayton Copula
The Clayton Copula can be considered as
Let EBE and EBE . Set and Then, the BivEBE-type distribution can be derived from A straightforward -dimensional extension from the above will be . Many other useful details can be found in [13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22].
4. Properties
4.1. Expansions and Quantile Function (QF)
Consider the series representation
expanding , we can write (7) as
Then, consider the power series expansion
using (11) in Equation (10), and after some algebra, the PDF of EBE can be written as
Then, we have
therefore, the PDF of the EBE model becomes
where
and
The QF of the EBE model is given by the real solution of the following equation:
where the above equation has no closed form solution in , so we have to use a numerical technique.
4.2. Moments
Theorem 1.
IfEBEthen themoment ofis given by
where
Proof.
Let be an RV following the EBE distribution. The ordinary moment can be obtained using the well-known formula
then
Setting , after some algebra, we obtain
If we set , we obtain the mean of the EBE distribution. Variance, skewness and kurtosis measures can be easily derived from the well-known relationships. Three-dimensional plots of the skewness and kurtosis of the EBE model are presented in Figure 3 and Figure 4. □
Figure 3.
Three-dimensional plot for the skewness of the EBE model.
Figure 4.
Three-dimensional plot for the kurtosis of the EBE model.
These plots indicate that both measures depend very much on the shape parameter The first four moments and the skewness and kurtosis of the EBE distribution for different values of parameters are represented in Table 1.
Table 1.
Moments, skewness and kurtosis of the EBE model.
Theorem 2.
The moment generating functionof the EBE is given by
where
Proof.
Starting with
then
finally, we get
In the same way, the characteristic function of the EBE distribution becomes
where is the unit imaginary number. □
4.3. Incomplete Moments
The lower and upper incomplete moments of are defined by
and
respectively, for any real The lower incomplete moment of the EBE distribution is
then
where and is the lower incomplete gamma function. Similarly, the upper incomplete moment of the EBE distribution is
then
where
is the upper incomplete gamma function.
4.4. Mean Deviation and Bonferroni and Lorenz Curve
The mean deviations about the mean and the mean deviations about the median can be written as
and
respectively, where
The Lorenz curve for a positive RV is defined as
where . Additionally, the Bonferroni curve is defined by
4.5. Residual Life and Reversed Residual Life Functions
The moment of the residual life via the general formula is given by
then
The mean residual life (MRL) of the EBE distribution is given by
The order moment of the reversed residual life can be obtained by the well-known formula
Applying the binomial expansion of and substituting given by (7) into the above formula gives
then
where
is the lower incomplete gamma function. The mean waiting time of the EBE distribution is given by
Using and , one can obtain the “variance” and the “coefficient of variation” of the reversed residual life of the EBE distribution.
5. Estimation and Inference
Let be a random sample of size from EBE . The log likelihood function for the vector of parameters and can be written as
where and The associated score function is given by
The in (18) can be maximized by solving the nonlinear likelihood equations obtained by differentiating (18). The components of the score vector are given by
and
6. Simulation
The “inverse transform algorithm” is used to generate random data from the EBE distribution. We generated samples of sizes and , and the simulations were repeated times from the EBE model for some parameter values. Table 2 and Table 3 give the mean square errors (MSEs) and the biases, respectively. The average values of estimates (AVs), estimated average length (EAL) and the coverage probability (CP) are listed in Table 4, Table 5 and Table 6, respectively. From Table 2, we note that the AVs of estimates approach the initial values as , the MSEs for each parameter decrease to zero as , and the coverage lengths for each parameter decrease to zero as From Table 3, we note that the biases for each parameter are generally positive and decrease to zero as , and the coverage probabilities for each parameter approach the nominal level as
Table 2.
Mean square errors (MSEs) for n = 50, 100, 200, 500 and 1000.
Table 3.
Biases for n = 50, 100, 200, 500 and 1000.
Table 4.
Average values (AVs) for n = 50, 100, 200, 500 and 1000.
Table 5.
Estimated average lengths (EALs) for n = 50, 100, 200, 500 and 1000.
Table 6.
Coverage probabilities (CPs) for n = 50, 100, 200, 500 and 1000.
7. Modeling Stress-Rupture Life of Kevlar 49/Epoxy Strands Data
In this section, we illustrate the performance of the EBE distribution as compared to some alternative distributions using a real data application. The goodness-of-fit (GOF) statistics for this distribution are compared with other competitive distributions, and the maximum likelihood estimations (MLEs) of the distribution parameters are determined numerically. We compare the fits of the EBE distribution with the Burr type X (Burr X) distribution, Burr type XII (Burr XII) distribution, beta log logistic Weibull distribution (BLLW), beta Weibull log logistic (BWLL) and beta log logistic, beta linear failure rate geometric (BLFRG), exponentiated linear failure rate geometric (ELFRG), beta Rayleigh (BR), and beta Weibull geometric distributions (BWG) (see [23]). In order to compare the distributions, we consider the measures of GOF including the Akaike Information Criterion (C), Bayesian Information Criterion (C), Consistent Akaike Information Criterion (C) and Hannan–Quinn Information Criterion (C) statistics.
The following real data set represents the stress-rupture life of Kevlar 49/epoxy strands that are subjected to constant sustained pressure at the 90% stress level until all have failed that were provided by [24], given as 0.01, 0.08, 0.09, 0.09, 0.10, 0.02, 0.02, 0.03, 0.03, 0.04, 0.05, 0.43, 0.52, 0.54, 0.56, 0.60, 0.60, 1.00, 0.06, 1.34, 0.10, 1.45, 1.50, 1.51, 0.63, 0.72,0.99, 1.52, 1.53, 1.54, 1.54, 1.55, 1.58, 4.20, 4.69, 7.89, 0.07, 0.07, 0.36, 0.38, 0.40, 0.65, 0.67, 0.68, 0.79, 0.80, 0.80, 0.83, 0.72, 0.42, 0.12, 0.13, 0.18, 0.19, 0.20, 0.23, 0.24, 1.01, 1.02, 1.03, 0.72, 0.73, 0.79, 0.85, 0.90, 0.92, 0.95, 1.05, 0.11, 0.24, 0.29, 0.34, 0.35, 1.10, 1.10, 1.11, 1.15, 1.18, 1.20, 1.29, 1.31, 0.11, 0.01, 0.02, 1.40, 1.43 and 1.33. Table 7 gives the MLE for all the models corresponds to the failure times data set. Table 8 shows the statistics for the failure times of the Kevlar data set. Figure 5 gives the kernel density estimation and box plot for exploring the symmetry of the stress-rupture life data. Figure 6 provides the fitted PDF in the left panel and fitted CDF in the right panel.
Table 7.
The MLE for all the models corresponds to the failure times data set.
Table 8.
Statistics for failure times of Kevlar data set.
Figure 5.
Kernel density estimation and box plots.
Figure 6.
Fitted PDF (left panel) and fitted cumulative distribution function (CDF) (right panel).
Based on Table 8, it is clear that the EBE distribution provides the best fit to these data, with −2logL = 143.3996, C = 149.41, C = 149.6887, C = 152.3784 and C = 152.3784. Thus, it is concluded that this model can be a better model than other competitive lifetime models for explaining the data set. Based on Figure 6, we note that the EBE distribution gives adequate fits. Many symmetric and near symmetric real-life data sets can be modeled using the new EBE model and found in [25,26,27,28,29,30,31,32,33,34,35,36]. For other right heavy tailed real data sets see [37,38,39,40,41,42,43,44,45]. As a future work we will consider “bivariate” and “multivariate” extensions of the EBE distribution. In particular with the “copula-based construction” method, “trivariate reduction” etc.
8. Conclusions
A new three-parameter lifetime distribution is proposed and studied. A simple-type Copula-based construction is presented to derive many bivariate- and multivariate-type distributions. We investigated some of mathematical properties such as the ordinary moments, moment generating function and conditional moment. Bonferroni and Lorenz curves and mean deviations are discussed. Residual life and reversed residual functions are also obtained. Some bivariate- and multivariate-type extensions are proposed. The maximum likelihood method is used to estimate the model parameters. Finally, we illustrate the importance of the new model by studying real data applications to show the flexibility and potentiality of the new model.
Author Contributions
All authors contributed equally to this work. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.
Funding
This research received no external funding.
Acknowledgments
The authors acknowledge the College of Science at Al Imam Mohammad Ibn Saud Islamic University, Saudi Arabia, for supporting this project.
Conflicts of Interest
The authors declare no conflict of interest regarding the publication of this paper.
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