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10.3390/land14112169
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Article

Analysis of Sand Dune Migration and Future Trends on the Western Edge of the Kumtag Desert

by
Fan Yang
1,*,
Silalan Abudukade
1,
Lishuai Xu
2,
Akida Salam
3,
Xinghua Yang
4,
Wen Huo
1,
Ali Mamtimin
1,
Xinqian Zheng
5,
Yihan Liu
6,
Chenglong Zhou
1,
Mingjie Ma
1,
Fapeng Zhang
7 and
Cong Wen
1
1
Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration/National Observation and Research Station of Desert Meteorology, Taklimakan Desert of Xinjiang/Taklimakan Desert Meteorology Field Experiment Station of China Meteorological Administration/Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Desert Meteorology and Sandstorm/Key Laboratory of Tree-Ring Physical and Chemical Research, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi 830002, China
2
College of Resources and Environment, Shanxi Agricultural University, Jinzhong 030801, China
3
Kizilsu Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture Meteorological Bureau, Artux 845350, China
4
College of Geographical Sciences, Shanxi Normal University, Taiyuan 030032, China
5
Xinjiang Agro-Meteorological Observatory, Urumqi 830002, China
6
College of Ecology and Environment, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830017, China
7
College of Geography and Remote Sensing Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830017, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Land 2025, 14(11), 2169; https://doi.org/10.3390/land14112169
Submission received: 23 September 2025 / Revised: 26 October 2025 / Accepted: 29 October 2025 / Published: 31 October 2025
(This article belongs to the Section Land Use, Impact Assessment and Sustainability)
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Abstract

Sand dune migration, as a typical dynamic process of aeolian geomorphology in arid regions, directly influences regional ecological security and infrastructure development. Focusing on the western edge of the Kumtag Desert, this study uses remote sensing imagery and field investigations, combined with multi-factor meteorological observations and CMIP6 climate scenarios, to quantitatively analyze the migration characteristics and influencing factors of representative dunes, and to construct a predictive model for future migration trends. The dominant migration direction is W–WNW–NW, which closely matches the composite resultant drift potential. The average annual migration speed is 12.86 m·a−1, classifying these dunes as fast-moving; small to medium dunes migrate faster (13.84 m·a−1) than large dunes (11.27 m·a−1). Wind speed, sand-moving wind frequency, drift potential (DP), Vegetation Fractional Cover (FVC), and precipitation significantly affect migration speeds; wind speed is the primary driver (single-factor R2 = 0.41), while precipitation (R2 = 0.26) and FVC (R2 = 0.27) exert a suppressing effect, particularly on small to medium dunes. Based on stepwise multiple regression analysis combined with CMIP6 multi-model predictions, under the SSP8.5 scenario, characterized by significant temperature increases, drastic fluctuations in precipitation patterns, and notable increases in wind speed, the average annual sand dune migration speed is projected to reach 18.59 m·a−1 by the end of this century, an increase of 5.78 m·a−1 compared to the current speeds; whereas under the SSP1–2.6 and SSP2–4.5 scenarios, changes are projected to be minor and overall relatively stable. The findings of this study provide a scientific basis for regional infrastructure and engineering planning, as well as for the renovation and protection of existing oil and power transmission lines.
Keywords: Kumtag Desert; sand dune migration; environmental factors; CMIP6; climate change Kumtag Desert; sand dune migration; environmental factors; CMIP6; climate change

Share and Cite

MDPI and ACS Style

Yang, F.; Abudukade, S.; Xu, L.; Salam, A.; Yang, X.; Huo, W.; Mamtimin, A.; Zheng, X.; Liu, Y.; Zhou, C.; et al. Analysis of Sand Dune Migration and Future Trends on the Western Edge of the Kumtag Desert. Land 2025, 14, 2169. https://doi.org/10.3390/land14112169

AMA Style

Yang F, Abudukade S, Xu L, Salam A, Yang X, Huo W, Mamtimin A, Zheng X, Liu Y, Zhou C, et al. Analysis of Sand Dune Migration and Future Trends on the Western Edge of the Kumtag Desert. Land. 2025; 14(11):2169. https://doi.org/10.3390/land14112169

Chicago/Turabian Style

Yang, Fan, Silalan Abudukade, Lishuai Xu, Akida Salam, Xinghua Yang, Wen Huo, Ali Mamtimin, Xinqian Zheng, Yihan Liu, Chenglong Zhou, and et al. 2025. "Analysis of Sand Dune Migration and Future Trends on the Western Edge of the Kumtag Desert" Land 14, no. 11: 2169. https://doi.org/10.3390/land14112169

APA Style

Yang, F., Abudukade, S., Xu, L., Salam, A., Yang, X., Huo, W., Mamtimin, A., Zheng, X., Liu, Y., Zhou, C., Ma, M., Zhang, F., & Wen, C. (2025). Analysis of Sand Dune Migration and Future Trends on the Western Edge of the Kumtag Desert. Land, 14(11), 2169. https://doi.org/10.3390/land14112169

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