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Article

Revisiting Flood Hazard Assessment Practices under a Hybrid Stochastic Simulation Framework

1
Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering, School of Civil Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, 15780 Athens, Greece
2
Hydroexigiantiki Consulting Engineers, 3 Evias Str., 15125 Marousi, Greece
3
Laboratory of Ecological Engineering and Technology, Department of Environmental Engineering, Democritus University of Thrace, 67100 Xanthi, Greece
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editors: Julio Garrote, Virginia Ruiz-Villanueva and Andres Diez-Herrero
Water 2022, 14(3), 457; https://doi.org/10.3390/w14030457
Received: 23 November 2021 / Revised: 25 January 2022 / Accepted: 27 January 2022 / Published: 2 February 2022
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Recent Advances in Flood Hazard and Risk Science)
We propose a novel probabilistic approach to flood hazard assessment, aiming to address the major shortcomings of everyday deterministic engineering practices in a computationally efficient manner. In this context, the principal sources of uncertainty are defined across the overall modeling procedure, namely, the statistical uncertainty of inferring annual rainfall maxima through distribution models that are fitted to empirical data, and the inherently stochastic nature of the underlying hydrometeorological and hydrodynamic processes. Our work focuses on three key facets, i.e., the temporal profile of storm events, the dependence of flood generation mechanisms on antecedent soil moisture conditions, and the dependence of runoff propagation over the terrain and the stream network on the intensity of the flood event. These are addressed through the implementation of a series of cascade modules, based on publicly available and open-source software. Moreover, the hydrodynamic processes are simulated by a hybrid 1D/2D modeling approach, which offers a good compromise between computational efficiency and accuracy. The proposed framework enables the estimation of the uncertainty of all flood-related quantities, by means of empirically derived quantiles for given return periods. Lastly, a set of easily applicable flood hazard metrics are introduced for the quantification of flood hazard. View Full-Text
Keywords: flood hazard; stochastic simulation; synthetic hyetographs; curve number; varying time of concentration flood hazard; stochastic simulation; synthetic hyetographs; curve number; varying time of concentration
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MDPI and ACS Style

Efstratiadis, A.; Dimas, P.; Pouliasis, G.; Tsoukalas, I.; Kossieris, P.; Bellos, V.; Sakki, G.-K.; Makropoulos, C.; Michas, S. Revisiting Flood Hazard Assessment Practices under a Hybrid Stochastic Simulation Framework. Water 2022, 14, 457. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14030457

AMA Style

Efstratiadis A, Dimas P, Pouliasis G, Tsoukalas I, Kossieris P, Bellos V, Sakki G-K, Makropoulos C, Michas S. Revisiting Flood Hazard Assessment Practices under a Hybrid Stochastic Simulation Framework. Water. 2022; 14(3):457. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14030457

Chicago/Turabian Style

Efstratiadis, Andreas, Panagiotis Dimas, George Pouliasis, Ioannis Tsoukalas, Panagiotis Kossieris, Vasilis Bellos, Georgia-Konstantina Sakki, Christos Makropoulos, and Spyridon Michas. 2022. "Revisiting Flood Hazard Assessment Practices under a Hybrid Stochastic Simulation Framework" Water 14, no. 3: 457. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14030457

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