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Application of NSGA-II and Improved Risk Decision Method for Integrated Water Resources Management of Malian River Basin

1
Key Laboratory of Eco-hydrology of Inland River Basin, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
2
Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
3
Gansu Provincial Soil and Water Conservation Research Institute, Lanzhou 730000, China
4
Gansu Provincial Water Science Research Institute, Lanzhou 730000, China
5
State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Water 2019, 11(8), 1650; https://doi.org/10.3390/w11081650
Received: 5 July 2019 / Revised: 2 August 2019 / Accepted: 7 August 2019 / Published: 9 August 2019
(This article belongs to the Section Water Resources Management and Governance)
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Abstract

The Malian River Basin is the Longdong grain elevator and a new oil and energy base of East Gansu Province. Limited water resources programming utilization is a key for the development of the socio-economic and energy industry, as well as the improvement of the ecological environment. An analytical framework for assessing socioeconomic development, rational allocation of water resources, and guiding policy development is proposed in this study. A decision tree method was used in the risk analysis and was improved by introducing the expert advisory probabilistic method into the sensitivity analysis to reduce cognitive bias. A large-system multi-objective model was developed to solve the problem of the rational allocation of available water resources and for benefit maximization among water users. The Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm-II (NSGA-II) method was used to generate a solution. The water supply amount within the basin was 8.69 × 108 m3 and the water shortage rate was 15.90%. The optimization model method had better distribution results than the weights method without new water supply. Through the model method results, the water saving potential was found and the related policies were proposed. The framework and methods can further provide a reference for both the planning of water resources and the formulation of regulatory policies and will greatly alleviate water crises in semi-arid areas. View Full-Text
Keywords: integrated management of water resources; large-system multi-objective model; NSGA-II method; risk decision-making; improved decision tree method; Malian River Basin integrated management of water resources; large-system multi-objective model; NSGA-II method; risk decision-making; improved decision tree method; Malian River Basin
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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited (CC BY 4.0).
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Gao, Y.; Zhang, X.; Zhang, X.; Li, D.; Yang, M.; Tian, J. Application of NSGA-II and Improved Risk Decision Method for Integrated Water Resources Management of Malian River Basin. Water 2019, 11, 1650.

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