The Malian River Basin is the Longdong grain elevator and a new oil and energy base of East Gansu Province. Limited water resources programming utilization is a key for the development of the socio-economic and energy industry, as well as the improvement of the ecological environment. An analytical framework for assessing socioeconomic development, rational allocation of water resources, and guiding policy development is proposed in this study. A decision tree method was used in the risk analysis and was improved by introducing the expert advisory probabilistic method into the sensitivity analysis to reduce cognitive bias. A large-system multi-objective model was developed to solve the problem of the rational allocation of available water resources and for benefit maximization among water users. The Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm-II (NSGA-II) method was used to generate a solution. The water supply amount within the basin was 8.69 × 108
and the water shortage rate was 15.90%. The optimization model method had better distribution results than the weights method without new water supply. Through the model method results, the water saving potential was found and the related policies were proposed. The framework and methods can further provide a reference for both the planning of water resources and the formulation of regulatory policies and will greatly alleviate water crises in semi-arid areas.
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