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Article

Updated Assessment of Temperature Extremes over the Middle East–North Africa (MENA) Region from Observational and CMIP5 Data

1
Climate and Atmosphere Research Center (CARE-C), The Cyprus Institute, 20 Konstantinou Kavafi Street, Nicosia 2121, Cyprus
2
Department of Atmospheric Chemistry, Max Planck Institute for Chemistry (MPIC), Hahn-Meitner-Weg 1, 55128 Mainz, Germany
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Atmosphere 2020, 11(8), 813; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11080813
Received: 10 July 2020 / Revised: 29 July 2020 / Accepted: 29 July 2020 / Published: 31 July 2020
The objective of this analysis is to provide an up-to-date observation-based assessment of the evolution of temperature extremes in the Middle East–North Africa (MENA) region and evaluate the performance of global climate model simulations of the past four decades. A list of indices of temperature extremes, based on absolute level, threshold, percentile and duration is used, as defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). We use daily near-surface air temperature (Tmax and Tmin) to derive the indices of extremes for the period 1980–2018 from: (i) re-analyses (ERA-Interim, MERRA-2) and gridded observational data (Berkeley Earth) and (ii) 18 CMIP5 model results combining historical (1950–2005) and scenario runs (2006–2018 under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). The CMIP5 results show domain-wide strong, statistically significant warming, while the observation based ones are more spatially variable. The CMIP5 models capture the climatology of the hottest areas in the western parts of northern Africa and the Gulf region with the thewarmest day (TXx) > 46 °C and warmest night (TNx) > 33 °C. For these indices, the observed trends are about 0.3–0.4 °C/decade while they are 0.1–0.2 °C/decade stronger in the CMIP5 results. Overall, the modeled climate warming up to 2018, as reflected in the indices of temperature extremes is confirmed by re-analysis and observational data. View Full-Text
Keywords: climatology; temperature extremes; global models; mediterranean; Middle East; North Africa climatology; temperature extremes; global models; mediterranean; Middle East; North Africa
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MDPI and ACS Style

Ntoumos, A.; Hadjinicolaou, P.; Zittis, G.; Lelieveld, J. Updated Assessment of Temperature Extremes over the Middle East–North Africa (MENA) Region from Observational and CMIP5 Data. Atmosphere 2020, 11, 813. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11080813

AMA Style

Ntoumos A, Hadjinicolaou P, Zittis G, Lelieveld J. Updated Assessment of Temperature Extremes over the Middle East–North Africa (MENA) Region from Observational and CMIP5 Data. Atmosphere. 2020; 11(8):813. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11080813

Chicago/Turabian Style

Ntoumos, Athanasios, Panos Hadjinicolaou, George Zittis, and Jos Lelieveld. 2020. "Updated Assessment of Temperature Extremes over the Middle East–North Africa (MENA) Region from Observational and CMIP5 Data" Atmosphere 11, no. 8: 813. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11080813

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