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Open AccessArticle

Yield Data Provide New Insight into the Dynamic Evaluation of Maize’s Climate Suitability: A Case Study in Jilin Province, China

by Jing Zhao 1,2,3, Kaiwei Li 1,2,3, Rui Wang 1,2,3, Zhijun Tong 1,2,3,* and Jiquan Zhang 1,2,3,*
1
School of Environment, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130117, China
2
State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Wetland Ecology and Vegetation Restoration, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130117, China
3
Key Laboratory for Vegetation Ecology, Ministry of Education, Changchun 130117, China
*
Authors to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Atmosphere 2019, 10(6), 305; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10060305
Received: 28 April 2019 / Revised: 18 May 2019 / Accepted: 25 May 2019 / Published: 3 June 2019
Examining the effects of climate change on spring maize, and its suitability under dynamic cultivation patterns, will aid strategic decision-making for future agricultural adaptation. This paper investigates the climate suitability of spring maize, based on daily data from 50 meteorological stations, and statistics on maize yield and area at the county level in Jilin Province, China, between 1986 and 2015. Based on a significant correlation between the cultivation patterns indicator ≥10 °C accumulated temperature (AAT10) and the average yield (R2 = 0.503), the yield data are used to determine suitable thresholds for meteorological factors under the dynamic cultivation pattern, and a fuzzy fitness approach is used to evaluate the climate suitability. The results showed a good agreement between suitability estimates and scaled observed yields (average d = 0.705). Moreover, good consistency between cultivation patterns, climate suitability and yield show that the late-maturing varieties of maize have gradually moved northward and eastward, and the areas of high suitability and high yield have gradually expanded eastward. In addition, drought and chilling hazard factors limit the suitability of climate resources, especially in the eastern and western regions. View Full-Text
Keywords: spring maize; climate suitability; agroclimatic indices; cultivation pattern; climate change spring maize; climate suitability; agroclimatic indices; cultivation pattern; climate change
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Zhao, J.; Li, K.; Wang, R.; Tong, Z.; Zhang, J. Yield Data Provide New Insight into the Dynamic Evaluation of Maize’s Climate Suitability: A Case Study in Jilin Province, China. Atmosphere 2019, 10, 305.

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