3.1.1. Overview of the Cloud Regimes
Following the methodology described in
Section 2, a set of eight cloud regimes was derived from the CLAAS-2.1 data over Europe and for the time period of 2004–2017. The corresponding centroids of the eight derived cloud regimes, in the form of joint cloud histograms of cloud top pressure and cloud optical thickness, are shown in
Figure 1. In order to facilitate a quick visual comparison to previous cloud regime studies, the cloud regimes are presented in an order, starting from the ones containing the largest fraction of high-level clouds and continuing with those that consist of lower-level clouds. For each joint cloud histogram, the bins of cloud top pressure are located in the y-axis and those of cloud optical thickness are on the x-axis. The cloud fraction of the respective bins is represented by the color bar. The total cloud fraction of each cloud regime, as well as the regime’s overall mean relative frequency of occurrence (RFO) are presented on top of the corresponding plot. Finally, the geographical distribution of the multiannual mean RFO of the eight CRs is presented in
Figure 2. An overview of the CRs, including their mean properties and a name based on the cloud types mainly associated to each CR, can be found in
Table 1.
In comparison to other cloud regime studies, various similarities in the patterns of the centroids or in the maps of the multiannual mean RFO can be observed. However, differences can be noticed as well. First of all, the number of the derived cloud regimes could change depending on several steps of the method and, more importantly, because of the selected region of each study. For instance, for cloud regime studies that focus on smaller regions (compared to global studies, for example), the number of regimes required to represent the cloud conditions over that area is naturally expected to be smaller. Compared to global studies, it can be noted that the cloud regimes of the present work have a smaller representation of the very high clouds that would fall in the first bin of cloud top pressure. This can be justified by considering that in the global studies, the tropics are included and, as a result, regions with much more convective systems and with higher tropopause levels, and by extension with higher clouds, are taken into account. For instance, the CTP bins with values less than 180 hPa contain considerably fewer clouds compared to the corresponding bins of the global studies (e.g., [
4,
6]) that include the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Lastly, differences could be attributed to discrepancies in the observations, the algorithms of cloud detection and cloud optical property retrieval, and the sampling and gridding approaches [
22]. Consequently, comparing cloud regimes can be a very challenging task that requires consideration of several parameters.
The patterns appearing in the centroids confirm that the cloud regimes contain mixtures of different cloud types. However, distinct peaks of the cloud fraction in the centroids can lead to the association of the clusters to certain, more dominant, cloud types in this apparent composition of cloud types [
22]. Following this notion, a description of the derived cloud regimes and an attempt to associate the cloud regimes to certain known cloud types, also taking into consideration their mean geographical distribution, is presented below.
Cloud Regime 1 (CR1) contains a large amount of high and thin clouds; it has a total cloud fraction of 82.9% and a small overall mean RFO of 4.9%. Generally, it has a low RFO over most of Europe; however, there are a few specific areas, mostly near the coasts, of slightly higher RFO (e.g., over the Gulf of Lion and the Ligurian Sea, the Adriatic Sea and the Baltic Sea). As a result, CR1 can be connected mostly to cirrus and, because of the relatively reduced cloud fraction compared to the other high-level CRs, to cirrocumulus clouds. CR2 presents its peak of cloud fraction in the bins of low cloud top pressure with the cloud optical thickness ranging from low to medium values. A few deeper clouds are present in this cloud regime as well. Moreover, it has a larger total cloud fraction (97%) compared to CR1, and its overall RFO is again small (4.4%). The geographical multiannual mean RFO is also low over the whole region, but it shows slightly more continental characteristics than CR1. Consequently, CR2 is associated with cirrus and cirrostratus clouds. The last regime of those with the higher clouds is CR3. This CR has some of the thickest clouds out of all the eight derived regimes and the highest total cloud fraction (99.7%). However, its overall mean RFO (4%) is the lowest of every other CR. The map of its multiannual mean RFO has very low values over the full region, especially over the lower latitudes. Only an area over Central and Eastern continental Europe shows a faint increase in the RFO values. Cirrostratus and clouds related to deep convection can be attributed to CR3; CR3 is the cloud regime that mostly represents convection and storm systems over Europe.
An additional CR connected to cirrus, similar to CR1 but with its peak of cloud fraction taking place in bins of larger cloud top pressure, and also with a significantly wider range of cloud top pressure and cloud optical thickness, is CR4. The pattern of CR4 also indicates the existence of altocumulus and altostratus clouds in CR4. The total cloud fraction of CR4 is relatively high (93.5%), and it is a much more frequent CR than the three high-level CRs, with an overall RFO value of 10.2%. CR4 presents an increased RFO over, generally, most of the region, with decreased RFO values at lower latitudes. Cloud fraction peaks in bins of higher cloud top pressure for CR5, in comparison to the previous CRs. It contains a variety of middle-level clouds, altostratus and nimbostratus clouds. In general, clouds associated to CR5 present a widely ranging cloud optical thickness, extending mostly from medium to high values. It is one of the most cloudy regimes, in terms of total cloud fraction (97.6%), and has a higher overall mean RFO (12.3%) than the previous CRs. It is a cloud regime with a clear continental character, showing larger RFO values over land areas, and it also presents generally increased RFO values over higher latitudes. Over lower latitudes it appears to be less frequent, with the lowest values taking place over the Mediterranean Sea. The areas that CR5 is more frequent in, appear to be Germany and the Alps, and parts of the northern United Kingdom.
The following two CRs, namely CR6 and CR7, are cloud regimes consisting mainly of the lowest clouds of all the CRs. They differentiate from each other mostly on the cloud optical thickness bins where the respective total cloud fraction presents its largest values. CR6 contains mostly low and very thin clouds. It has a significantly reduced total cloud fraction value (67.8%) and an overall mean RFO of 12.4%. CR6 has the most pronounced oceanic character out of all the cloud regimes, presenting its highest values of RFO over the Atlantic Ocean, the Bay of Biscay, the North Sea and the Mediterranean over the Libyan and the Levantine Sea. The low cloud optical thickness, along with the reduced total cloud fraction and the oceanic character of CR6, indicate that this CR consists primarily of shallow cumulus clouds and, potentially, fog. CR7 contains optically thicker clouds than CR6, which also have a much higher total cloud fraction (87.2%) and a slightly reduced RFO (8.7%). The areas of maximum RFO are found to be in the Atlantic Ocean and the North Sea as well as coastal and some more inland areas of Central and Western continental Europe. Over lower latitudes the RFO of CR7 is significantly reduced. Therefore, CR7 can be associated to marine stratocumulus and to some broken stratocumulus clouds.
The last cloud regime, CR8, is the hardest cloud regime to associate with any specific cloud type. It consists of all the joint cloud histograms that do not have any distinguishable pattern in order to suggest a particular identity [
6]. CR8 has the highest overall mean RFO (43%) and the lowest total cloud fraction (23.7%). It is, therefore, a cloud regime that appears very often but it contains clouds with low cloud fractions. It has a very high RFO over the whole region, and its RFO decreases slightly only over some very cloudy areas (mostly marine), where more frequent, cloudier CRs (e.g., CR4 to CR7) take over. As a result, CR8 can be described as a fair-weather cloud regime [
38]. Interestingly, a similar cloud regime has been found in every previous cloud regime study, e.g., [
4,
6,
22,
38], regardless of the region of interest.
The cloud regime classification is illustrated in
Figure 3 using an RGB image (
Figure 3a) and a color-coded map of the cloud regimes (
Figure 3b) for 1 February 2014 at 10:30 UTC. This time step serves as a good example for the cloud regime classification as a wide variety of cloud types is apparent over the region of interest. The majority of the different features of this dynamic field are well represented by the CRAAS dataset by attributing each 1° × 1° grid cell to the corresponding CR. However, given the coarser resolution of CRAAS, in general, cases of misclassification due to small scale variability of cloud types can also be present. The broken low-level clouds over the Atlantic Ocean are well classified to CR6, and slightly more to the east, where the clouds become higher, the shift to the alto- and nimbo-type clouds of CR4 can be noticed. An additional well-represented feature is the transition of the cloud regimes for the frontal system over France; observing from west to east, the change from high thin cirrus (CR1) to cirrostratus (CR2) and then to more convective high and optically thick clouds (CR3) can be seen. Finally, in general, the areas over which only some scattered clouds exist and where the cloud fraction is significantly reduced are attributed to the fair-weather cloud regime (CR8).
3.1.2. Variability of the Cloud Regimes over Europe
In order to have a more in-depth understanding of the nature and the behavior of these eight cloud regimes, a study of their variability at different time scales was carried out. Given that the CRAAS dataset covers an extensive period (from 2004 to 2017), the variability of the cloud regimes provided below can be thought of as a climatology of these cloud regimes over Europe. At the same time, an opportunity to observe long-term changes in each CR and, by extension, in the clouds over Europe is provided here.
The overall annual cycle of the RFO of each CR is displayed in
Figure 4. The intra-annual variability is clearly dominated by the fair-weather CR8. The monthly mean RFO of CR8 increases as one moves from winter to spring, peaks in the summer months reaching its maximum of 54.2% in July, and then decreases during autumn. The wide annual cycle of CR8 is also clear in the seasonal mean RFO; for summer the overall mean RFO is approximately 51.1%, which then decreases considerably to 29.3% for the winter season. This annual cycle is mostly influenced by the southern regions of Europe where these low cloud fraction scenes are much more frequent, particularly in summer. The three CRs associated to high-level clouds (i.e., CR1, CR2 and CR3), which are the ones that have the lowest overall mean RFO, present a quite uniform annual cycle of their RFO, with a very small variability. CR1 and CR2 in particular have a nearly identical annual cycle, presenting two small but distinguishable peaks in May and September–October. CR3, being widely connected to clouds from frontal systems, has the lowest frequency of occurrence of all the CRs throughout the year, but it starts becoming more frequent with the start of autumn leading up to winter, which is when frontal systems become more frequent over Europe. As expected, CR3 shows its minimum value in June (3.5%), and it reaches its maximum value in December (6.3%). The next three regimes (i.e., CR4, CR5 and CR6) have more pronounced annual variabilities of RFO than the three high-level cloud regimes. The alto- and nimbo-type cloud regime, CR4, shows its highest mean RFO values in winter (seasonal mean RFO 15.7%) and this decreases to approximately half of that value during summer (seasonal mean RFO 7.8%), where it presents its minimum. The middle-level regime, CR5, takes its maximum RFO values in spring. In fact, for that season, CR5 is the second most dominant cloud regime, after CR8. The shallow cumulus, broken marine stratocumulus clouds and the fog included in CR6 are considerably more frequent during autumn and especially during winter (seasonal mean RFO 18%), where CR6 is the second most frequent CR, but present significantly lower RFO values during summer (seasonal mean RFO 7.7%). Finally, the annual RFO variability of CR7 has much lower RFO values than the other low-level CR, CR6, during autumn and winter, and it presents only some moderate fluctuations during the course of the year.
A number of studies on the diurnal cycle of clouds using different satellite datasets exist, e.g., [
39,
40,
41,
42,
43]. Long-term surface observations have also contributed significantly to the topic; for instance, Eastman and Warren in [
12] extensively describe the diurnal cycle of different cloud types on a global scale using ground-based observations. Here, taking advantage of the high temporal resolution of the SEVIRI measurements, which allows the CLAAS-2.1 climate data record to provide cloud optical properties every 15 min, the CRAAS dataset offers a unique opportunity to investigate the diurnal variability of clouds through the concept of cloud regimes for the first time.
The diurnal variability of each of the eight cloud regimes derived from CRAAS, averaged over the whole region of study for hourly true solar time bins, is shown in
Figure 5. In a similar manner to the annual variability, the fair-weather cloud regime CR8 is the most dominant in terms of RFO values. It presents a peak in the early morning, reaching RFO values of 51.5%, and then decreases during the day, while the majority of the rest of the cloud regimes gradually become more frequent, and, finally, a second peak of approximately the same magnitude as the first one is apparent in the evening.
Regarding cloud regimes containing mainly low-level clouds (mostly CR6 and CR7), as expected, their diurnal cycle appears to be driven primarily by destabilization of the boundary layer by solar heating of the surface, inducing convection and leading to the formation of cumuliform clouds. After the boundary layer starts cooling, moving more towards night times, condensation is caused and more stratiform clouds are generated. Following this principle, the peak of the shallow cumulus clouds of CR6, with values up to 14.4%, can be observed slightly after noon. The increased RFO values in the early morning and late evening can be attributed to fog, also being represented in this cloud regime, which is more frequent near sunrise; then it sharply decreases until early evening. Typically, stratocumulus and stratus clouds, represented mainly by CR7, are more frequent in the early morning (showing a maximum 10.8%), drastically decreasing after noon.
The mid-level clouds of CR5 and the alto- and nimbo-type clouds of CR4 have a considerably smaller amplitude in their diurnal cycle since they are driven by solar heating to a much smaller extent.
The three cloud regimes consisting of high-level clouds (namely CR1, CR2 and CR3) present, for the biggest extent of the day, the lowest RFO values compared to the other cloud regimes and an overall small variability. CR3 is associated to high and very optically thick clouds, such as deep convective clouds and frontal convection. Its RFO values grow while the day progresses, forming a slight plateau of increased values around noon, which can arguably be connected to thermal convection leading to deeper clouds. In addition, CR2, which contains mostly cirrostratus and some thicker high clouds, gradually increases and peaks after the peak of CR3 is formed. Finally, the thin cirrus clouds of CR1 increase in frequency after noon and peak in the evening, reaching RFO values up to 8.5%, after the peaks of CR2 and CR3. Provided that the deep convective cloud regime CR3 peaks earlier in the day than the cirrus and cirrostratus clouds of CR1 and CR2, respectively, this pattern could be indicative of deep convection and its related cirrus and cirrostratus remnants.
Aside from the intra-annual and the diurnal variability of the cloud regimes, the 14 years of data from CRAAS allow for an in-depth study of changes in the frequency of occurrence of the derived cloud regimes both over the whole region of study and also locally, thus providing a useful insight into the changing climate of the region through the scope of the cloud regimes.
Moreover, the extensive time series of the cloud regime classification are used to supplement essential climate monitoring studies by identifying potential signals of specific substantial events that occurred over Europe during the 2004–2017 period. For instance, several of the most extreme drought events in Europe, which are thoroughly listed by Spinoni et al. in [
44], can also be distinguished in the time series, presented in
Figure 6, of the absolute monthly anomalies of the RFO of each cloud regime averaged over the whole region. For the most extensive and intensive drought events, a larger positive anomaly in the frequency of occurrence of the fair weather CR8, which is a regime of low cloud fraction, can be observed. During the corresponding months of the drought events, the opposite signal is apparent for the cloud regimes with high cloud fraction and especially for those that are associated to clouds that can potentially produce precipitation. The alto- and nimbo-type clouds of CR4, along with the middle-level clouds of CR5, present the strongest negative anomalies for all the drought events, while negative anomalies of generally smaller magnitudes are noted for the cumulus and stratocumulus clouds of CR6 and CR7 during the majority of the drought periods. The high-level CR1, CR2 and CR3 have, overall, relatively minor absolute anomalies of varying signs.
To list a few of these events, according to Spinoni et al. in [
44] there was a drought event peaking in July 2006 and covering approximately 34% of the region, including Southern Europe and areas around the Mediterranean, as well as regions of the Balkans and northeastern Europe. For the corresponding month, CR8 has a +5% anomaly, while the rest of the cloud regimes have negative anomalies, with CR5 having the largest one in magnitude (−4.3%), except for cirrus and cirrostratus CR1 and CR2 that have small positive anomalies. In December of the same year, lasting until the spring of 2007, an event covering the Baltic Republics, Eastern Europe and later southeastern Europe can also be spotted in the time series. An additional large-scale drought reached its maximum in April 2011, covering 39.5% of the area including parts of South and Central Europe along with several Eastern European areas. For CR8 a +5.5% anomaly is observed for the corresponding month, while all the other cloud regimes, apart from CR3, express negative anomalies.
Bissolli et al., in [
45], in a report from the German Weather Service, elaborate on the unusually dry weather throughout large parts of Europe in the spring of 2012. They discuss that the duration, the coverage and the intensity of the mentioned period was exceptional and that it was the continuation of a series of drought periods that took place during the previous year, 2011. This sequence of drought events is clearly distinguishable in the time series as a succession of large positive anomalies for CR8 around 2012, peaking at 10.4% in March of 2012. For the same month, CR4 exhibits the largest negative anomaly (−4.2%), followed by that of CR5 (−2.6%). For the remaining cloud regimes, negative anomalies of ranging magnitude can be detected as well, except for CR7, which has a minor positive anomaly of +1.3%. Naturally the signal of such events that are either on a smaller scale or of minor magnitude, as for example a drought in August 2005 affecting only 15.7% of the region referenced by Spinoni et al. in [
44], is not always apparent in the time series of the whole European domain. However, further analysis focusing on more local aspects could provide additional insight and more detailed results on such topics.
Lastly, the trends, corresponding to the slope of the linear fit (green lines in
Figure 6), of the eight cloud regimes during the 2004–2017 period are relatively small, with CR4 and CR6 having the most substantial change over the time series; CR4 exhibits the largest decrease (−0.65%) and, contrary to that, for CR6 the biggest increase (+0.70%) is observed. Trends were found to be statistically significant at a 95% confidence level for two of the high-level cloud regimes, CR1 and CR2 (−0.40% and −0.33% change in their RFO for the period of the study, respectively), for the alto and nimbo cloud regime CR4 and also for the low-level clouds of CR6.
The changes in the frequency of occurrence of the cloud regimes, shown in
Figure 6 and discussed above, refer to averages over the whole domain of this study. Nevertheless, spatial patterns in the changing nature of the clouds and, by extension, of the cloud regimes over Europe, exist. The maps in
Figure 7 represent the spatial distribution of the changes in the CRAAS-based cloud regimes during the 2004–2017 period, corresponding to the slope of the linear fit applied to the time series of the monthly anomalies for each 1° × 1° grid cell. Dotted areas represent regions where the trend was found to be statistically significant with a 95% confidence level. Mixed patterns of relatively smaller changes in the frequency of occurrence of the three high-level cloud regimes (i.e., CR1, CR2 and CR3) can be observed over most of the domain. Only for the more convective clouds of CR3 can a slightly more extensive increase in their frequency of occurrence over higher latitudes, and especially over continental regions, be noted. However, over most of the region, these changes do not appear to be statistically significant. Areas of statistically significant trends are mostly found for CR1 and CR2 over the Central Mediterranean. CR4, containing mostly alto- and nimbo-type clouds, presents a widespread decrease over most of Europe with values reaching up to −2.8%. However, small regions of increasing frequency of occurrence for CR4, for instance, over the Bay of Biscay, exist as well. These trends are statistically significant over lower latitudes and parts of Eastern Europe. A considerably more diverse pattern of changes arises for the mid-level clouds of CR5. For the majority of the lower latitudes, and particularly over the marine areas of the Mediterranean, CR5 becomes less frequent, while for regions over Central and Eastern Europe CR5 becomes more frequent; locally CR5 increases with values up to +4.1%. The decrease in the frequency of occurrence of CR5 over most of the Mediterranean, as well as the increases over the less extensive areas of Central and Eastern Europe, were found to be statistically significant. A contrasting pattern to that of CR5 is discernible for the shallow cumulus of CR6. For most of the oceanic and coastal regions of Europe, CR6 shows large statistically significant increases in its frequency of occurrence, while, over land areas, decreased values can be noted. In particular, over the Central and Eastern Mediterranean, some of the biggest increases compared to all other cloud regimes are observed for CR6. Locally, these changes reach a maximum of +6.5%. A widely opposite pattern of, however, more minor changes is noticeable for the stratus and stratocumulus clouds of CR7. For CR7 no widespread statistically significant changes are apparent. The fair-weather cloud regime, CR8, has a diagonally contrasting pattern of changes in its frequency of occurrence, with an extensive decrease over the northern parts of Europe and a widespread increase being apparent for the southern parts of the region. The largest decreases are located over Northern Germany and Denmark, with values reaching up to −4.7%, and over parts of North Africa and the Mediterranean, where an increase is observed, a maximum of +6.6% is approached. Nonetheless, exceptions in this general pattern exist, as, for instance, over the Eastern Mediterranean where the fair-weather cloud regime is regionally decreasing given the strong increase in the shallow cumulus of CR6. For CR8, statistically significant trends are apparent for a large area over the southern regions where extensive increases are observed and also over the decreases in RFO over Denmark and the North Sea.
In order to better understand the changes in the cloud regimes over the climate of Europe,
Figure 8 shows the corresponding changes in the total cloud fraction. The principal feature in the pattern of changes in the cloud fraction is an opposite pattern to that of the changes in the frequency of occurrence of the fair-weather regime (CR8). As expected, generally, over the areas where CR8 is increasing, the cloud fraction is decreasing given that less cloudy scenes dominate these regions. In contrast, locations over which CR8 is becoming less frequent, mostly present an increase in cloud fraction. An additional conclusion from the two figures is that, despite the large increase in the frequency of occurrence of CR6 over the Central and Eastern Mediterranean, the cloud fraction is mostly decreasing or, over less extensive areas, slightly increasing. This feature could be explained by the fact that CR6 contains mostly shallow cumulus and broken stratocumulus clouds, thus scenes of a widely reduced cloud fraction. This can also be noted in the total cloud fraction of CR6 (67.8% in
Figure 1), which is the second lowest total cloud fraction of all the cloud regimes, after the fair-weather cloud regime, CR8. Therefore, while CR6 is becoming substantially more frequent over these regions, scenes of a low cloud fraction are becoming more frequent, leading to the decreasing cloud fraction apparent in
Figure 8. In contrast, due to the considerably more minor increases in the more cloudy regimes (in terms of total cloud fraction) CR3 and CR4 (having total cloud fraction values of 99.7% and 93.5%, respectively), for example, over the Atlantic and the Bay of Biscay, a larger impact in the change in the cloud fraction can be observed. Finally, over Central Europe, the combination of the increasing middle-level CR5 and the decreasing fair-weather CR8, while the rest of the cloud regimes have slightly smaller changes, leads to a considerable increase in the cloud fraction over these areas.